IN the RCP averages, Obama is up 1.3% in Virginia, but McCain is up 3.2% in North Carolina.OscarGuy wrote:criddic3 wrote:OscarGuy wrote:So, there's some great news coming out of Missouri, which points to Missouri's continuance as a bellwether state.
Survey USA: M: 48, O: 46 +2 McCain
Post-Dispatch/2000: M: 47, O: 46: +1 McCain
This is a change from the +10 McCain back in Mid-August and the +5 McCain results from early September.
Of course, Obama also is having trouble keeping good numbers in Pennsylvannia, Michigan and Ohio. If McCain keeps Ohio and Florida in his column and manages to switch Pennsylvannia (a real possibility), he wins.
Well, McCain's having a problem keeping both Virginia and North Carolina, so don't start counting your Republican chickens before they've hatched...
So, North Carolina carries 15 electoral votes and Virginia 13. Pennsylvannia carries 21.
Let's say McCain gets Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania, while Obama gets NC and VA. McCain still wins. On the other hand, if Obama wins Pennsylvania he has a shot, but I believe he'll need either Ohio or Florida to win if that happens, since PA is already being counted as in his camp. Then again, right now RCP has Obama up 8 EV without any toss-up states. So McCain needs to flip something, like Minnesota (10 EVs) or Wisconsin (10), where Obama has weak support right now.
However, if he flips Pennsylvania, I'm telling you, I think he wins hands down. The triple play of Ohio, PA and FL would be overwhelming. Not saying it WILL happen, but there's a good chance of it if McCain can make his case in those areas. There are few ways for Obama to catch up with that, without flipping a few states of his own.