Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

Post Reply
User avatar
MovieWes
Professor
Posts: 2019
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:33 pm
Location: San Antonio, Texas, USA
Contact:

Post by MovieWes »

I don't know. I know several women who LOVED Titanic and can hardly wait to see this movie. I'm sure that they are not alone.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Post by rolotomasi99 »

MovieWes wrote:Well, Ron Howard's films have made a lot of money. Even a disappointment like Cinderella Man grossed $61.6 million. I wouldn't underestimate him, although it is possible that Frost/Nixon will not draw in a crowd.

And never underestimate the power of rabid Titanic fans. I'm sure that the curiosity of seeing a Kate/Leo reunion alone is worth at least $75 million (possibly more), and the inevitable Oscar push should add some extra money to its intake. Regardless of its subject matter, it will be pretty big.
ron howard makes movies fun for the whole family. when he does anything dark (THE MISSING, $23 million) or talky (THE PAPER, $33), his name alone is not able to draw people in. FROST/NIXON appears to be dark and talky. making more than $20 million would depend on a best picture nomination. do you believe it will be nominated for best picture? do you think FROST/NIXON can make $63 million without a best picture nominaton?

as for kate and leo, i guess i am just completely unaware of the thronged masses clamoring to see them in another movie together. all those tween girls who loved TITANIC are now in their twenties. are they really the type of people who want to see a movie with a description like this:
"April and Frank Wheeler are a young, thriving couple living with their two children in a Connecticut suburb in the mid-1950s. Their self-assured exterior masks a creeping frustration at their inability to feel fulfilled in their relationships or careers. Frank is mired in a well-paying but boring office job, and April is a housewife still mourning the demise of her hoped-for acting career. Determined to identify themselves as superior to the mediocre sprawl of suburbanites who surround them...their relationship deteriorates into an endless cycle of squabbling, jealousy and recriminations."

...or a trailer like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSTQtrDB7_E

yeah...that is not going to be packing them into the multiplexes. only a best picture win could make this movie more than an art house hit. that trailer is brutal. this movie is going to be brutal. i suspect i am going to love it. the rest of the country? not so much.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
Sabin
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10795
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 12:52 am
Contact:

Post by Sabin »

And never underestimate the power of rabid Titanic fans. I'm sure that the curiosity of seeing a Kate/Leo reunion alone is worth at least $75 million (possibly more), and the inevitable Oscar push should add some extra money to its intake. Regardless of its subject matter, it will be pretty big.

Problem being, compared to the far more commercially minded 'American Beauty' and 'Road to Perdition' ('Jarhead' notwithstanding) AND the successes of 'Titanic', 'Revolutionary Road' can't NOT be considered a disappointment unless it crosses the $100 mil threshold. It will be something of a relative success but it needs to be a relative Oscar success story and it really might not be.

I have a friend who just read the screenplay to 'Revolutionary Road' and said it was an incredibly fine read.
"How's the despair?"
User avatar
MovieWes
Professor
Posts: 2019
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:33 pm
Location: San Antonio, Texas, USA
Contact:

Post by MovieWes »

rolotomasi99 wrote:Frost/Nixon- $63 million
"See: Charlie Wilson's War. Also, see: The Queen."
CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR starred tom hanks and julia roberts, two of the biggest stars. it was largely a comedy with a few action scenes mixed in, played well in more than just art house theatres, and made its money from good word-of-mouth -- eight out of ten of its weeks in release, its grosses fell less than 50% (which is better than most hollywood films do).
FROST/NIXON stars frank langella and michael sheen. is a very talky drama about a subject most people either do not care about or want to forget, will not play well out of art houses, and (if early reviews are any indication) will not have the benefit of a best picture nomination.
THE QUEEN was a true art house phenomenon. a small film which made $56 million from incredible repeat business and word-of-mouth from small theatres. however, it made $19 m after being nominated for best picture.
i think the better comparison is the dour and talky GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK. played well in the art house theatres, had good word-of-mouth, but little repeat business. i guess i just do not see people packing in the theatres to see FROST/NIXON, but audiences always surprise me.

Revolutionary Road- $135 million
"See: all the Titanic fans who have been waiting 11 years to see Kate and Leo reunite on the big screen. Also, see: American Beauty."
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD is a comedy like AMERICAN BEAUTY was? i have avoided most spoilers about the film, but from what i have heard it is a somber and sobering look at suburban malaise, rather than the funny and sexy look at suburban life we saw in AMERICAN BEAUTY. if this movie is funny, the trailers are doing a horrible job of showing us that. i am not sure who these TITANIC fans are, but boy are they in for a world of disappointment.
also, AMERICAN BEAUTY made $33 m after being nominated for best picture, and $21 m after winning. if REVOLUTIONARY ROAD can win best picture, then it might have a chance at crossing the century mark.
Well, Ron Howard's films have made a lot of money. Even a disappointment like Cinderella Man grossed $61.6 million. I wouldn't underestimate him, although it is possible that Frost/Nixon will not draw in a crowd.

And never underestimate the power of rabid Titanic fans. I'm sure that the curiosity of seeing a Kate/Leo reunion alone is worth at least $75 million (possibly more), and the inevitable Oscar push should add some extra money to its intake. Regardless of its subject matter, it will be pretty big.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Post by rolotomasi99 »

flipp525 wrote:
rolotomasi99 wrote:Revolutionary Road- $135 million
even with a best picture nomination this seems highly unlikely. from what i have read, the film is going to be along the lines of WHO'S AFRAID OF VIRGINIA WOLFE. i am not sure who outside of the art house crowd is going to want to see that during the holidays.

Revolutionary Road is the new Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? That doesn't make any sense at all.

first of all, i apologize for misspelling ms. woolf's name.
second of all, no on but you called it the "new" WHO'S AFRAID OF VIRGINIA WOOLF.
i said it was going to be along the lines. just read the description from imdb and tell me that does not sound like a movie of two people sniping and tearing each other down. it will not be as vicious as WHO'S AFRAID OF VIRGINIA WOOLF, but it sounds like a film which will be worth watching for its incredible acting and writing, rather than because it is romantic and funny. definitely not the type of film to make $100 m or more.

imdb description (spoilers removed)--
"April and Frank Wheeler are a young, thriving couple living with their two children in a Connecticut suburb in the mid-1950s. Their self-assured exterior masks a creeping frustration at their inability to feel fulfilled in their relationships or careers. Frank is mired in a well-paying but boring office job, and April is a housewife still mourning the demise of her hoped-for acting career. Determined to identify themselves as superior to the mediocre sprawl of suburbanites who surround them...their relationship deteriorates into an endless cycle of squabbling, jealousy and recriminations."




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1224612371
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Post by rolotomasi99 »

Frost/Nixon- $63 million
"See: Charlie Wilson's War. Also, see: The Queen."
CHARLIE WILSON'S WAR starred tom hanks and julia roberts, two of the biggest stars. it was largely a comedy with a few action scenes mixed in, played well in more than just art house theatres, and made its money from good word-of-mouth -- eight out of ten of its weeks in release, its grosses fell less than 50% (which is better than most hollywood films do).
FROST/NIXON stars frank langella and michael sheen. is a very talky drama about a subject most people either do not care about or want to forget, will not play well out of art houses, and (if early reviews are any indication) will not have the benefit of a best picture nomination.
THE QUEEN was a true art house phenomenon. a small film which made $56 million from incredible repeat business and word-of-mouth from small theatres. however, it made $19 m after being nominated for best picture.
i think the better comparison is the dour and talky GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK. played well in the art house theatres, had good word-of-mouth, but little repeat business. i guess i just do not see people packing in the theatres to see FROST/NIXON, but audiences always surprise me.

Revolutionary Road- $135 million
"See: all the Titanic fans who have been waiting 11 years to see Kate and Leo reunite on the big screen. Also, see: American Beauty."
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD is a comedy like AMERICAN BEAUTY was? i have avoided most spoilers about the film, but from what i have heard it is a somber and sobering look at suburban malaise, rather than the funny and sexy look at suburban life we saw in AMERICAN BEAUTY. if this movie is funny, the trailers are doing a horrible job of showing us that. i am not sure who these TITANIC fans are, but boy are they in for a world of disappointment.
also, AMERICAN BEAUTY made $33 m after being nominated for best picture, and $21 m after winning. if REVOLUTIONARY ROAD can win best picture, then it might have a chance at crossing the century mark.




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1224608252
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6170
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Post by flipp525 »

rolotomasi99 wrote:Revolutionary Road- $135 million
even with a best picture nomination this seems highly unlikely. from what i have read, the film is going to be along the lines of WHO'S AFRAID OF VIRGINIA WOLFE. i am not sure who outside of the art house crowd is going to want to see that during the holidays.
Revolutionary Road is the new Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? That doesn't make any sense at all.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
User avatar
MovieWes
Professor
Posts: 2019
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:33 pm
Location: San Antonio, Texas, USA
Contact:

Post by MovieWes »

Frost/Nixon- $63 million
why? why would that many people see this movie? other than ron howard, there are no big names drawing people in. this movie is more talky than GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK. plus, its awards chances are pretty much lead actor only.

See: Charlie Wilson's War. Also, see: The Queen.

The Tale of Despereaux- $40 million
with little else for kids to see, i think this film could make twice as much.

See: The Waterhorse: Legend of the Deep. However, I guess it could be another Charlotte's Web or Stuart Little.

Bedtime Stories- $196 million
adam sandler's highest grossing film yet. maybe. his usual frat boy fans might be turned off by the kiddie nature of the film. he will rely on parents feeling comfortable with bringing the little one to an adam sandler film.

See: Night at the Museum

Revolutionary Road- $135 million
even with a best picture nomination this seems highly unlikely. from what i have read, the film is going to be along the lines of WHO'S AFRAID OF VIRGINIA WOLFE. i am not sure who outside of the art house crowd is going to want to see that during the holidays.

See: all the Titanic fans who have been waiting 11 years to see Kate and Leo reunite on the big screen. Also, see: American Beauty.




Edited By MovieWes on 1224602682
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Post by rolotomasi99 »

MovieWes wrote:Okay, so I've got nothing better to do right now, so I'm going to predict the domestic grosses of all the films that have yet to be released this year...
High School Musical 3- $179 million
i agree HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3 is going to be huge.

Saw V- $55 million
i will be so happy to see the end of torture porn films. unfortunately their small budgets mean they will continue to thrive no matter how low the grosses go.

Changeling- $37 million
well, without a best picture nomination, CHANGELING is going to have a tough time drawing people outside of the art house crowd. this is why we always get the clusterfuck of quality films at the end of the year.

Zack and Miri Make a Porno- $23 million
really? i think this will be smith's biggest film ever. i am thinking around $75 million. i have read early reviews that start "i do not like kevin smith films, but i liked this one." the advertising challenges have also brought it enough free press to certainly help it reach a wider audience than just the kevin smith fanboys. i think $23 million will be the movie's opening weekend, especially since it has no real competition.

Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa- $206 million
sadly, i must agree.

Quantum of Solace- $227 million
i am hoping it is even hire. CASINO ROYALE certainly helped wash away the aftertaste of the brosnan bond films.

Slumdog Millionaire- $64 million
i think this amount would be possible with a best picture nomination, but even with a slow roll out the nominations are too far away. i certainly hope i am wrong though.

Twilight- $88 million
i could be wrong, but from what i heard this will be the SEX AND THE CITY of the younger crowd. this movie will pass the century mark i think.

Australia- $108 million
very possible. it is the type of movie will want to see on the big screen rather than wait for dvd.

Milk- $56 million
i would love for it to make more, but unless it wins the majority of critics awards it will have to wait until oscar nominations are announced. i hope the james franco nudity and ample guy-on-guy action brings in the housewives crowd that made BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN a hit.

Frost/Nixon- $63 million
why? why would that many people see this movie? other than ron howard, there are no big names drawing people in. this movie is more talky than GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCK. plus, its awards chances are pretty much lead actor only.

The Day the Earth Stood Still- $78 million
it looks like a real bore, but there is absolutely no other competition this holiday season.

Seven Pounds- $154 million
after THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS made more than $160 million, i should probably have learned to never question the box office appeal of will smith...but this just looks like a hard sell to people. will smith, though, should not underestimated.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- $136 million
i hope so. the movie looks truly magical. the first film in a long time to feel that way.

Yes Man- $95 million
also do not underestimate jim carrey. if he can make FUN WITH DICK AND JANE pass the century mark, this film will definitely be printing money.

The Tale of Despereaux- $40 million
with little else for kids to see, i think this film could make twice as much.

Bedtime Stories- $196 million
adam sandler's highest grossing film yet. maybe. his usual frat boy fans might be turned off by the kiddie nature of the film. he will rely on parents feeling comfortable with bringing the little one to an adam sandler film.

Revolutionary Road- $135 million
even with a best picture nomination this seems highly unlikely. from what i have read, the film is going to be along the lines of WHO'S AFRAID OF VIRGINIA WOLFE. i am not sure who outside of the art house crowd is going to want to see that during the holidays.

The Wrestler- $54 million
have you met american audiences? do you realize how much they hate low budget films that are not torture porn? this will be a tough sell even with the art house crowd.

Valkyrie- $96 million
Defiance- $57 million
i think these films will be closer in the box office, and i think it will be around $50 million.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
User avatar
MovieWes
Professor
Posts: 2019
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:33 pm
Location: San Antonio, Texas, USA
Contact:

Post by MovieWes »

Okay, so I've got nothing better to do right now, so I'm going to predict the domestic grosses of all the films that have yet to be released this year...

October 24
High School Musical 3: Senior Year- $179 million
Saw V- $55 million
Pride & Glory- $32 million

October 31
Changeling- $37 million
Zack and Miri Make a Porno- $23 million
RockNRolla- $12 million
The Haunting of Molly Hartley- $7 million

November 7
Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa- $206 million
Role Models- $38 million
Soul Men- $29 million

November 14
Quantum of Solace- $227 million
Slumdog Millionaire- $64 million

November 21
Bolt- $129 million
Twilight- $88 million

November 26
Australia- $108 million
Milk- $56 million
Four Christmases- $42 million
Transporter 3- $31 million

December 5
Frost/Nixon- $63 million
Punisher: War Zone- $24 million

December 12
The Day the Earth Stood Still- $78 million
Nothing Like the Holidays- $29 million
Che- $19 million
The Reader- $17 million
Doubt- $9 million
Delgo- $4 million

December 19
Seven Pounds- $154 million
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button- $136 million
Yes Man- $95 million
The Wrestler- $54 million
The Tale of Despereaux- $40 million
The Brothers Bloom- $6 million

December 25
Bedtime Stories- $196 million
Revolutionary Road- $135 million
Valkyrie- $96 million
The Spirit- $67 million
Marley and Me- $45 million
Hurricane Season- $16 million

December 31
Defiance- $57 million
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Post by rolotomasi99 »

wow. i thought the aussies were crazy for abba, not the brits. i know abba is loved (and loathed) across the globe, but $400 million overseas is an incredible amount...and that is not even the final tally! MAMMA MIA could easily make close to $600 million worldwide!

News Item--
The Universal musical Mamma Mia! crossed another box-office milestone over the weekend as it reached $400.1 million in total overseas ticket sales, making it the studio's second-highest-grossing film in history, behind Jurassic Park. In the U.K. it has now earned $112.6 million, making it the third biggest release in that country's history, behind Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone ($113.2 million) and Titanic ($118.2 million).




Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1224534579
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
User avatar
MovieWes
Professor
Posts: 2019
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:33 pm
Location: San Antonio, Texas, USA
Contact:

Post by MovieWes »

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Lakeview Terrace (Sony) - $4.7M, $1,907 PTA, $4.7M cume
2. Burn After Reading (Focus) - $3.42M, $1,287 PTA, $28.52M cume
3. NEW - My Best Friend’s Girl (Lionsgate) - $2.85M, $1,094 PTA, $2.85M cume
4. Righteous Kill (Overture) - $2.34M, $742 PTA, $23.44M cume
5. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) - $2.2M, $1,063 PTA, $23M cume
6. NEW - Igor (MGM) - $1.9M, $812 PTA, $1.9M cume
7. The Women (Picturehouse) - $1.87M, $625 PTA, $15.77M cume
8. NEW - Ghost Town (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.65M, $1,096 PTA, $1.65M cume
9. The House Bunny (Sony) - $1M, $379 PTA, $49.93M cume
10. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) - $850,000, $446 PTA, $519.82M cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Lakeview Terrace (Sony) - $13.5M, $5,479 PTA, $13.5M cume
2. Burn After Reading (Focus) - $11.3M, $4,253 PTA, $36.4M cume
3. NEW - My Best Friend’s Girl (Lionsgate) - $7.7M, $2,957 PTA, $7.7M cume
4. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) - $7.59M, $3,667 PTA, $28.44M cume
5. Righteous Kill (Overture) - $7.2M, $2,284 PTA, $28.3M cume
6. NEW - Igor (MGM) - $6.8M, $2,907 PTA, $6.8M cume
7. The Women (Picturehouse) - $5.61M, $1,876 PTA, $19.52M cume
8. NEW - Ghost Town (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5.5M, $3,654 PTA, $5.5M cume
9. The House Bunny (Sony) - $3.29M, $1,232 PTA, $46.22M cume
10. The Dark Knight (Warner Bros) - $3.14M, $1,651 PTA, $522.11M cume
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
User avatar
MovieWes
Professor
Posts: 2019
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:33 pm
Location: San Antonio, Texas, USA
Contact:

Post by MovieWes »

The website who predicted the weekend grosses. They're usually one of the first groups to publish early data.
"Young men make wars and the virtues of war are the virtues of young men: courage and hope for the future. Then old men make the peace, and the vices of peace are the vices of old men: mistrust and caution." -- Alec Guinness (Lawrence of Arabia)
Greg
Tenured
Posts: 3304
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 1:12 pm
Location: Greg
Contact:

Post by Greg »

What's Exclusive Fantasy Moguls?
User avatar
rolotomasi99
Professor
Posts: 2108
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2003 4:13 pm
Location: n/a
Contact:

Post by rolotomasi99 »

MovieWes wrote:EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Burn After Reading (Focus) - $19M, $7,167 PTA, $19M cume
2. Tyler Perry's The Family That Preys (Lionsgate) - $18M, $8,696 PTA, $18M cume
3. Righteous Kill (Overture) - $17.7M, $5,615 PTA, $17.7M cume
4. The Women (Picturehouse) - $11.8M, $3,984 PTA, $11.8M cume
5. Tropic Thunder (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.56M, $2,083 PTA, $103.36M cume
this will be the coen brother's first number one. the closest they had ever gotten previously was number two with THE LADYKILLERS.
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
Post Reply

Return to “2008”