The 2008 Fall Campaign

[Mister Tee]

Matthews is an utter buffoon, who despises all things Clinton, yet is always paraded as a media Democrat, because he worked for Tip O'Neill decades ago. His sole claim to independence in recent years was his correct prediction that Iraq was a bad idea -- but even there he suspended his skepticism when it appeared Bush was winning (he absolutely swooned over Mission Accomplished Day). He peddles more wrong-headed bullshit than anyone not employed by Fox.

By the way, this current ludicrous, completely fallacious "Wes Clark is denigrating McCain's military service" charade is 1) a sign of just how far in the tank the DC press corps is for McCain and 2) a perfect example of what anyone sensible will do their best to ignore between now and November, as it will be endlessly touted as crucial/election-turning, while in reality it won't amount to a hill of beans for voters.

[taki15]

I watch the clips at the MSNBC site. To be honest, I don't like Matthews very much.
I think he the quintessential egocentric, pompous analyst.

[Mister Tee]

What impresses me is the fact that the media are not even trying to hide their desire to make the race competitive.

I was watching the other day a clip of Hardball where Matthews was talking about the elections of 1976 and 1988, when Carter and Dukakis blew the big leads they had at summer.
But when Chuck Todd said that this election is more like the one of 1980, where as soon Reagan convinced the public that he is not ''some mad bomb-thrower'', he won in a landslide, Matthews dismissed him immediately.

You can get MSNBC in Greece? The reason I ask, I have a friend in Wisconsin who doesn't seem able to.

Making what you point out even more glaring: Matthews was happy to swear by Todd's analysis when it (correctly) explained how unlikely Hillary's chances were by early March.

It's very tempting to cheer all the polls right now -- I do it myself -- but be aware there might be some less edifying/closer ones between now and election day. It's even possible McCain will show a small lead just after the GOP convention (as Carter did in 1980). What won't change are the fundamental circumstances -- an unpopular president/war/economy. Whatever the daily readings, these are the factors voters will be weighing in November, and it would defy all electoral history for them to choose a Republican under such circumstances.

[Eric]

Minnesota's latest poll numbers have us just shy of California in terms of favoring Obama in a walk (we're talking a 17-point lead).

I guess Pawlenty is off the radar as a VP candidate. (Good.)



Edited By Eric on 1214593810

[taki15]

What impresses me is the fact that the media are not even trying to hide their desire to make the race competitive.

I was watching the other day a clip of Hardball where Matthews was talking about the elections of 1976 and 1988, when Carter and Dukakis blew the big leads they had at summer.
But when Chuck Todd said that this election is more like the one of 1980, where as soon Reagan convinced the public that he is not ''some mad bomb-thrower'', he won in a landslide, Matthews dismissed him immediately.

[Mister Tee]

Greg's take is probably at about the outside edge of how well Obama can do; I'd throw in Alaska and Montana, two other small states that have independent streaks (both voted in outsized numbers for Perot, and may do the same for Barr, enabling Obama to slip through).

Were McCain not from Arizona, I'd think it was a clear Obama target -- but, recall, even Mondale carried his home state against a major landslide. Even so, the state's demographic changes and lukewarm attitudes toward McCain (he only took 51% in the GOP primary there) make it at least something worth imagining.

I see Obama taking Georgia as akin to drawing to an inside straight -- he'd need home-state guy Barr to draw off alot of votes AND a massive explosion in black turnout. It's not impossible -- Reagan carried NY and MA in 1980 under similar circumstances -- but it's hardly where you'd want to bet the rent money.

NC and VA are far better bets, because both have been trending Dem for some time (Kerry only lost VA by 8 points, way better than the rest of the south), the university areas have been growing exponentially (and are heavily pro-Dem), and there's yet again that vast untapped minority vote.

Florida is a bit of a mystery. Obama has led in some recent polls, but the elderly tilt in the electorate makes it a spot most vulnerable to the hidden racist factor. If Obama wins nationally by more than five points, I figure he'll take the state, but I'm glad he's spending as much time going after CO, NM, NV, MO etc., rather than putting all his chips on Florida and Ohio like Clinton would surely have.

The thing to remember is this: despite widespread belief that Bush/Rove were geniuses, they barely squeaked out two electoral majorites -- the first by a disputed 271, and even their 2.5% win by only 286. That means Obama -- who will surely hold onto all of Kerry's states -- merely has to pick up a very few points to win. Ohio, or Florida, or Colorado/Virginia would all do it -- and the Obama team is set to compete for them and far more.

What really sets 2008 apart from 2004 is that Bush's approval rating is 20-25 points lower. To think that's not going to radically shift the electoral college is ahistorical thinking.

[OscarGuy]

Well, if we are to take all polls with grains of salt, that's fine, but if Obama's majority in the full US polls can be taken as a sign he'll still win, then McCain's typical 10-point lead in Georgia may hold as well. This could be a Reagan type landslide, but we must also consider that McCain has been working overtime to pay lip service to the conservative base, which will help his numbers and that base will also hold their noses to vote for McCain if they become too anti-Obama, which is a distinct possibility as he has a lot of liberal leanings they don't like in the least.

RealClearPolitics is doing a much better job than in 2004 of showing how the political landscape is going. Here's a link: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Now, it's quite possible he's going to win, but I think a lot of states may be called too early. We'll see how the polls develop. Thankfully, what sets 2008 apart from 2000 and 2004 is that there are not a lot of wedge issues on the ballot in bellwether states. California has their gay marriage thing, but that's not going to change their state to a Republican state.

[Penelope]

I suspect you're right that McCain will probably take Florida; the Cuban-Americans are staunchly Republican, as are the many retirees; in fact, a friend of my mother recently retired to Florida and she thinks Obama is the devil. It takes all my mom's patience not to tell her off--they've known each other for more than 60 years, childhood friends.

Georgia may be a different story; in fact, this may be the first presidential election in decades where the Solid South fractures: Obama clearly has the black vote, and he is smartly courting the evangelical vote, and there ARE liberal pockets in the South (it's not all the racist backwater the movies like to portray); and McCain simply does not inspire the Republican base.

[OscarGuy]

Well, maybe my lack of like (not really dislike anymore) will allow me to be pragmatic during the election.

And can you really blame us Democrats for being cautious about electoral politics? I mean we've been burned two elections in a row by bull shit gerrymandering or intimidation and downright stupidity.

[taki15]

OscarGuy Posted on June 25 2008,15:56
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I have a feeling that Florida will go to McCain as will Georgia and I'll bet Virginia. Obama would have to pick up a lot of ground in these states to win them, Georgia especially.

Neither Nebraska nor Maine have ever split their electoral votes and I can't imagine Nebraska of all places doing so.

Indiana has been shifting to a Republican stronghold for years, I wouldn't count it as one of the likely ones for him to win.

I continue to be amazed by how much you dislike the guy.

[OscarGuy]

I have a feeling that Florida will go to McCain as will Georgia and I'll bet Virginia. Obama would have to pick up a lot of ground in these states to win them, Georgia especially.

Neither Nebraska nor Maine have ever split their electoral votes and I can't imagine Nebraska of all places doing so.

Indiana has been shifting to a Republican stronghold for years, I wouldn't count it as one of the likely ones for him to win.

[Greg]

This is what I'm predicting for Obama, with electoral votes in parentheses:

Arizona(10) -- if he picks Napolitano for VP
California(55)
Colorado(9)
Connecticut(7)
Delaware(3)
District of Columbia(3)
Florida(27)
Georgia(15)
Hawaii(4)
Illinois(21)
Indiana(11)
Iowa(7)
Maine(4)
Maryland(10)
Massachusetts(12)
Michigan(17)
Minnesota(10)
Missouri(11)
Nebraska(1) -- he loses the state but wins the Omaha congressional district
Nevada(5)
New Hampshire(4)
New Jersey(15)
New Mexico(5)
New York(31)
North Carolina(15)
Ohio(20)
Oregon(7)
Pennsylvania(21)
Rhode Island(4)
Vermont(3)
Virginia(13)
Washington(11)
Wisconsin(10)

This would enable Obama to beat McCain 401-137.



Edited By Greg on 1214426930

[Mister Tee]

Since the Hillary or Obama? question has been answered definitively, it's probably time to inaugurate a thread to carry us through the fall campaign.

It's exceedingly likely we stand on the threshold of a truly world-changing election. I assume everyone's starting to see the polls giving Obama solid leads -- 3-6 points in lesser ones, 12-15 points in the outlying affairs. We should always look at summertime match-ups with skepticism -- recalling Dukakis' 17-point lead, and Carter and Bush I's seeming strength pre-July. What we shouldn't dismiss is the extreme circumstances under which this election will be fought. We have a president at epochally low approval -- 23% in today's LA Times poll. Whatever public forbearance wasn't lost over Iraq, Katrina or Alberto Gonzalez has now disappeared as the economy goes further south. You'll still hear the dead-enders cry "We're not officially in recession" -- just like they'll tell you "The surge is a complete success!" No one's listening to either. The public verdict on this administration has been rendered: Mission Not Accomplished. They are ready to turn the page, and, historically, the only way voters have chosen to do that is to choose the opposition party.

Pundits think we've somehow managed to make a competitive election in spite of all this, by nominating the Manly Maverick from Arizona, who'll swoop in and rescue his feckless party. This flies in the face of all American political history -- Adlai Stevenson couldn't get out from under Harry Truman's hideous second term failures; Hubert Humphrey couldn't get free from the Vietnam albatross LBJ provided; William Jennings Bryan running explicitly against the economics of party-mate Grover Cleveland was nonetheless punished for them. The press will continue to tell us how special McCain is right up till Election Day -- when he'll lose by a likely decisive margin.

Why do I only say "likely"? Well, there's one variable in this year's contest that challenges normal political parameters, and we might as well face it head on: Obama, as the first black candidate for the presidency, faces a hurdle to which only JFK's Catholicism in 1960 offers faint parallel. (Hard to believe, being Catholic was once a disqualifying characteristic) Particularly in the older population -- I'd say those over 50, and especially over 60 -- there will be some who, normally, in a time of economic plight like this, would vote for the out party, but who just may be unable to pull the lever for a black man. The bright side? As tasteless as it may be to point out, there are literally, in actuarial terms, fewer such anti-Obama voters every day between now and the election. And the genuinely brighter news: all the younger voters who are, by every evidence, not nearly so bound by prejudice. Obama has shown a unique ability to draw in, especially, the youngest voters in far higher numbers than usually vote. Add to that the near-certainty of record black turnout, and it may be more than enough to offset any votes lost to hide-bound bigotry. (Even in border states like Virginia and North Carolina. Imagine: states where, 40 years ago, a young Barack Obama would have had difficulty getting to vote, now giving him their electoral votes)

There'll be a lot of stories in the 131 days between now and the election -- many of them idiotic, most of them hyped by cable news as potentially election-turning, but all turning out utterly meaningless. This election is being fought on basics, and the basics heavily favor a Democratic triumph. (Which will almost certainly extend to major gains in the House and Senate. Perhaps we need a separate thread on that -- the House race here in Staten Island by itself has turned into a soap opera beyond belief)