If he can get past the hatred of the conservative base, I'm terrified that the Pubs will win if he gets the nomination.
THE NATION
BLOG | Posted 01/29/2008
McCain Wins -- Without Most Conservatives
By John Nichols
John McCain won a personal victory in Florida Tuesday night.
But he still has not won the Republican ideological battle that will continue through Super Tuesday and perhaps deep into February and March.
After the bitterest Republican race since the 2000 South Carolina contest he lost to George W. Bush, McCain prevailed in the Florida Republican primary--and with it the frontrunner status that just six months ago seemed unachievable for the campaign of a maverick who has never been trusted by the party's base.
Florida gave McCain a clear if hardly overwhelming victory over his chief rival for the GOP nod, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. With most of the votes counted, McCain had 36 percent of the vote. Romney had 31 percent. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, who focused his quest for the presidency on Tuesday's primary, finished with a dismal 15 percent. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who is essentially out of money but can still stir evangelical fervor, was just behind with 14 percent. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the anti-war libertarian who finished a credible second in the Nevada caucuses, was winning just 3 percent of the Florida vote.
That was the win McCain needed – and with it all of the 57 delegates awarded in the winner-take-all contest.
But it was not the win McCain wanted.
The senator Florida won on the basis of the strong support he received from the state's relatively large blocs of moderate and liberal Republican primary voters.
Unfortunately for McCain, liberals are most certainly not the definitional players in the Republican nominating process.
Nor are moderates the heart-and-soul of the Republican Party. Conservatives are. And McCain is still struggling to win their loyalty. Indeed, even now, former Secretary of Education Bill Bennett says, "The anger and bitterness toward John McCain is extraordinary among conservatives."
That's strong language.
But the fact is that McCain is winning the race for the Republican nomination without the support of the most conservatives.
He did not get it in New Hampshire, where he won the critical first-in-the-nation primary contest with the votes of moderate independents.
He did not get it in South Carolina, where he won the traditionally definitional first southern primary after conservative voters split among Romney, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee and former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson.
And he did not get it in Florida, where self-described "conservatives" told exit pollsters that McCain was not their first choice.
Conservatives made up 62 percent of the Republican primary voters in Florida, and they favored Romney over McCain by a 37-27 margin. (The numbers were even more lopsided among social conservatives. Among the 52 percent of Florida primary voters who say abortion should be illegal, Romney won with 35 percent to 27 percent for McCain and 23 percent for Huckabee. Among the 43 percent who said abortion should be legal, McCain got 43 percent to 26 percent for Romney and 20 percent for Giuliani.)
McCain secured his win only because 28 percent of Republican primary voters were moderates, and they favored him 40-22 over Romney.
McCain did even better among the 11 percent of Republican primary voters who, remarkably enough, identified themselves as liberals.
They favored the Arizona senator 46-25 over Romney.
But there are not that many more Republican primaries where self-described "liberals" are going to be a measurable -- let alone meaningful -- demographic.
That's why, while McCain was smiling Tuesday night, so was Romney.
As the Giuliani campaign fades to grey – even if "America's mayor" has not yet formally quit, he was talking about his presidential run in the past tense last night – McCain can hope to pick up a good portion of the moderate vote that went to 9-11 candidate. (He's expected to pick up Giuliani's endorsement in California on Wednesday.)
But, if Huckabee slides further, Romney will benefit.
So it was that McCain's Florida victory speech contained a near-funereal reference to "my dear friend Rudy Giuliani." The Arizona senator could barely wait to start throwing the dirt on the former New York mayor's political grave.
At the same time, McCain hailed the "good humor and grace" of the Huckabee campaign, leaving no doubt that he very much hopes it will continue.
Such are the vagaries of the Republican race. John McCain is ahead, and he might just win the nomination. But he has yet to win 40 percent of the vote in a single primary or caucus. McCain has taken the lead because conservatives have been deeply divided – so deeply divided that they may cede their party's nomination to a maverick they do not trust and they do not currently support.
McCain may yet close the deal. But to do so, as Bill Bennett says, "John McCain still has to talk to conservatives."
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat?pid=277349
Republicans, Primaries etc - the Dems have their own thread after all
Floridian Republicans haven't sucked so hard since, well since Election 2000.Greg wrote:Key finding: "The key to Romney's lead is the immigration issue. 15% of the state's GOP voters listed immigration as their biggest concern
Though I think it's hilarious Rudy put all his money and time here and is trailing McCain and the Mormon.
And I hope the Mormon leads all the way to a victory in Florida. Having him take the Presidential nomination would be the best news for the Democrats.
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida -- the first taken after Fred Thompson ended his presidential bid -- shows Mitt Romney leading among Republicans with 28%, followed by Sen. John McCain at 25%, Rudy Giuliani at 19% and Mike Huckabee at 15%.
Key finding: "The key to Romney's lead is the immigration issue. 15% of the state's GOP voters listed immigration as their biggest concern and within that group, 50% support Romney compared to just 14% for McCain. It isn't the biggest issue in the state -- the economy and the war in Iraq were listed by more respondents -- but it is the one creating the greatest separation between one candidate and the rest of the pack."
http://politicalwire.com/archive....it.html
Key finding: "The key to Romney's lead is the immigration issue. 15% of the state's GOP voters listed immigration as their biggest concern and within that group, 50% support Romney compared to just 14% for McCain. It isn't the biggest issue in the state -- the economy and the war in Iraq were listed by more respondents -- but it is the one creating the greatest separation between one candidate and the rest of the pack."
http://politicalwire.com/archive....it.html
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Mister Tee
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Huckabee, in South Carolina, has not only come out against gay marriage, but also for the state flying the confederate flag; and, what he said regarding the flag is somewhat ironic in relation to what he said about gay marriage.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=DvENHC1pX_8
http://youtube.com/watch?v=DvENHC1pX_8
Huckabee now has his own Willie Horton ad to deal with:
January 10, 2008, 3:47 PM
Outside Group Highlights DuMond Case In New Spot
Posted by Brian Montopoli
(AP)An ad airing tonight in South Carolina features the mother of a woman who was raped and murdered by Wayne DuMond, a man whose crimes have become a part of the presidential campaign of Mike Huckabee – for all the wrong reasons.
For those still unfamiliar with the name, and the story, DuMond was convicted and imprisoned in Arkansas in 1985 for the rape of a 17-year old girl. The case drew attention from some quarters who felt that DuMond had been wrongly accused. When he became governor of the state, Huckabee expressed sympathy for DuMond.
He met with members of the state parole board and, according to its members, advocated for DuMond's release. Huckabee denies he pressured the board and points out that as governor, he had only the power to provide clemency, not grant early paroles.
But DuMond was released, and after moving to Missouri, was convicted of raping and murdering Carol Sue Shields.
In the ad, Shields' mother, Lois Davidson, blames Huckabee for DuMond's release and the death of her daughter. "If not for Mike Huckabee, Wayne DuMond would have been in prison, and Carol Sue would be with us," she says.
The spot was conceived by Keith Emis, an Arkansas resident who set up a 527 organization called Victims Voice to raise money to get it on the air.
Asked why he produced the ad, which is here, Emis told CBSNews.com, "Carol Sue Shields was raped and murdered because of the actions Mike Huckabee took as the governor of Arkansas, and the voters of this country need to know that." He said he is not supporting any candidate in the presidential race.
Emis said he wrote the script for the spot himself and had a friend help him film and edit it. He said he also hired an attorney to help him "follow all of the Byzantine regulations concerning 527s."
Emis said he has already purchased air time to run the ad again in the future, though he declined to go into specifics. He also declined to say who had contributed funds to his effort to put it on the air.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs....3.shtml
January 10, 2008, 3:47 PM
Outside Group Highlights DuMond Case In New Spot
Posted by Brian Montopoli
(AP)An ad airing tonight in South Carolina features the mother of a woman who was raped and murdered by Wayne DuMond, a man whose crimes have become a part of the presidential campaign of Mike Huckabee – for all the wrong reasons.
For those still unfamiliar with the name, and the story, DuMond was convicted and imprisoned in Arkansas in 1985 for the rape of a 17-year old girl. The case drew attention from some quarters who felt that DuMond had been wrongly accused. When he became governor of the state, Huckabee expressed sympathy for DuMond.
He met with members of the state parole board and, according to its members, advocated for DuMond's release. Huckabee denies he pressured the board and points out that as governor, he had only the power to provide clemency, not grant early paroles.
But DuMond was released, and after moving to Missouri, was convicted of raping and murdering Carol Sue Shields.
In the ad, Shields' mother, Lois Davidson, blames Huckabee for DuMond's release and the death of her daughter. "If not for Mike Huckabee, Wayne DuMond would have been in prison, and Carol Sue would be with us," she says.
The spot was conceived by Keith Emis, an Arkansas resident who set up a 527 organization called Victims Voice to raise money to get it on the air.
Asked why he produced the ad, which is here, Emis told CBSNews.com, "Carol Sue Shields was raped and murdered because of the actions Mike Huckabee took as the governor of Arkansas, and the voters of this country need to know that." He said he is not supporting any candidate in the presidential race.
Emis said he wrote the script for the spot himself and had a friend help him film and edit it. He said he also hired an attorney to help him "follow all of the Byzantine regulations concerning 527s."
Emis said he has already purchased air time to run the ad again in the future, though he declined to go into specifics. He also declined to say who had contributed funds to his effort to put it on the air.
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs....3.shtml
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Big Magilla
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Huckabee Directly Equates Homosexuality With Bestiality
By Greg Sargent - January 17, 2008, 12:00PM
At some point you'd think Mike Huckabee's views would be seen as so controversial that there's no way he could possibly be a contender for the nomination of one of America's two main political parties.
Especially now. In an interview with Beliefnet.com, a religion Web site, Huck has just clarified his view that the Constitution should be amended to be brought in line with God's will -- and he directly equated homosexuality with bestiality.
Huck, in elaborating on his views that the Constitution should be subjected to Biblical standards, had just wrapped up a discussion of the fact that marriage has meant "a man and a woman in a relationship for life." With this context firmly established, this exchange followed:
QUESTIONER: Is it your goal to bring the Constitution into strict conformity with the Bible? Some people would consider that a kind of dangerous undertaking, particularly given the variety of biblical interpretations.
HUCKABEE: Well, I don’t think that’s a radical view to say we’re going to affirm marriage. I think the radical view is to say that we’re going to change the definition of marriage so that it can mean two men, two women, a man and three women, a man and a child, a man and animal. Again, once we change the definition, the door is open to change it again. I think the radical position is to make a change in what’s been historic.
That's pretty clear cut. Changing the definition of marriage so it can mean "two men" or "two women" is equivalent to changing it to mean "a man and an animal." No ambiguity here whatsoever.
Late Update: John Aravosis makes a key point about this latest Huckism:
This guy thinks it's fair game to talk about Romney's Mormonism? Fine, then let's have the media start talking about Huckabee's fringe views on Christianity.
Really, there's been surprisingly little discussion of this.
Separately, it's worth pointing out that Huck's quote above doesn't even use the tried-and-true "slippery slope" argument to couch his view that homosexuality is akin to bestiality. It's a direct equivalence.
By Greg Sargent - January 17, 2008, 12:00PM
At some point you'd think Mike Huckabee's views would be seen as so controversial that there's no way he could possibly be a contender for the nomination of one of America's two main political parties.
Especially now. In an interview with Beliefnet.com, a religion Web site, Huck has just clarified his view that the Constitution should be amended to be brought in line with God's will -- and he directly equated homosexuality with bestiality.
Huck, in elaborating on his views that the Constitution should be subjected to Biblical standards, had just wrapped up a discussion of the fact that marriage has meant "a man and a woman in a relationship for life." With this context firmly established, this exchange followed:
QUESTIONER: Is it your goal to bring the Constitution into strict conformity with the Bible? Some people would consider that a kind of dangerous undertaking, particularly given the variety of biblical interpretations.
HUCKABEE: Well, I don’t think that’s a radical view to say we’re going to affirm marriage. I think the radical view is to say that we’re going to change the definition of marriage so that it can mean two men, two women, a man and three women, a man and a child, a man and animal. Again, once we change the definition, the door is open to change it again. I think the radical position is to make a change in what’s been historic.
That's pretty clear cut. Changing the definition of marriage so it can mean "two men" or "two women" is equivalent to changing it to mean "a man and an animal." No ambiguity here whatsoever.
Late Update: John Aravosis makes a key point about this latest Huckism:
This guy thinks it's fair game to talk about Romney's Mormonism? Fine, then let's have the media start talking about Huckabee's fringe views on Christianity.
Really, there's been surprisingly little discussion of this.
Separately, it's worth pointing out that Huck's quote above doesn't even use the tried-and-true "slippery slope" argument to couch his view that homosexuality is akin to bestiality. It's a direct equivalence.
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OscarGuy
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The religion thing is far more impactful than you think. We've only ever had one non-protestant president and that was John F. Kennedy who had the fortune of coming out in the beginning of the television era and managed to appeal to more than just the traditional base (everyone remembers the famous Kennedy-Nixon debate in terms of historical context).
But even more recently, we've had Kerry and Lieberman each in positions of potentially becoming president. While it wasn't the sole deciding factor, I'm sure it had some impact.
But even more recently, we've had Kerry and Lieberman each in positions of potentially becoming president. While it wasn't the sole deciding factor, I'm sure it had some impact.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
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Big Magilla
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They said the country wouldn't elect Catholic Al Smith in 1928 and it didn''t so we were stuck with Herbert Hoover. By the time John Kennedy ran for president in 1960, it was still a concern, but less of one. Even so I remember Kennedy having to fend off accusations that he would run to the Pope before making decisions just as they are now saying Romney would have to consult Mormon elders before making decisions.Steph2 wrote:Greg wrote:Here's hoping that Thompson wins South Carolina and Giuliani wins Florida.
Umm, NO. I'm with Damien and Aakash - I want Romney to win and get the nomination so he can promptly lose the election. (Americans ain't voting for a Mormon no matter what anyone in this thread says)
While I'm sure there are those who wouldn't vote for Romney because of his religion, there are probably more bigots out there who won't vote for Obama because of his race or Clinton because she's a woman. Screw 'em all.
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Big Magilla
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Big Magilla wrote:OscarGuy wrote:Romney's Mormon faith does not get along well with most other U.S. Religions.
Mormons are Christians. They get along fine with other religions. They are very conservative in their habits - no drinking, no smoking, minimal makeup. I suppose some people could be concerned that Romney would somehow seek to impose their strict moral codes on the rest of us, but that's nonsense. Huckabee, on the other hand, does have an agenda and that's far more scary.
OK, I guess that's what OG meant, but I don't think the black people element is a very strong factor anymore. There are lots of fervent black Mormons now.
I was just watching a bit of The View over a late breakfast II know,,,I know) and heard this for the first time without having the time to check into it further, but it seems that the same veterans group that spread those false rumors about Kerry's boat incident in the last election are back spreading false rumors about McCain. They allege that he gave military secrets to the enemy in exchange for a softer POW cushion. Fortunately for McCain one of his fellow POWs was quick to say it was a lie. The source of the rumors has been traced to Huckabee supporters.
Edited By Big Magilla on 1200596146