Oscar Nominations

[danfrank]

I’ve only seen about half of the major nominees, so don’t feel fully qualified to remark on these nominations, but will do so anyway with a few random thoughts:

I haven’t seen Causeway yet, but am thrilled to see Brían Tyree Henry snag a nomination. Anyone who’s seen Atlanta knows that he’s a supremely talented actor (I’m pretty sure Sabin said as much on an earlier thread). He joins LaKeith Stanfield from that same show, who was nominated two years ago. My guess is that if Donald Glover ever gets an Oscar nod it will be for writing, or perhaps for best song.

I’m glad to see Paul Mescal with his first nomination (I want to say of many, but don’t want to jinx him), especially for such a non-showy performance. Aftersun is just a beautiful film, likely to end up as in my top 2 or 3 films of the year, so I’m disappointed it didn’t show up elsewhere. Admittedly it’s not the kind of film that tends to get nominated.

Bummer that Banshees was left off in Cinematography.

I’m surprised RRR didn’t get more support given what an audience pleaser it is. I wonder how many of the Academy saw it in comparison to All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s a cartoon movie in live action, but when I saw it I thought it had an outside chance of actually WINNING best picture, given its entertainment value.

The Academy’s push to diversify its membership so as to be more inclusive of BIPOC-focused films and BIPOC actors does not seem to have come to fruition thus far. If the nominations are meant to reflect the American population where white people now make up less than 60% of the population, then white people are still WAY over represented in these nominations. On an international scale it’s even more distorted. If you want to make the argument that it should be solely about quality (I.e., color blind) then why is it that what is perceived as quality is so white/Euro-focused? It’s hard to make the argument that there isn’t institutional racism at work, even if it is completely unconscious. Though I know nothing about and have nothing against Andrea Riseborough, it’s curious to me why, given the number of extremely talented but unrecognized actors out there, why the passionate campaign among Hollywood elite to promote a white actor versus a BIPOC one? Why not give a push for someone like Jeremy Pope? It’s s a rhetorical question, of course.

[Mister Tee]

- I'm disappointed Dolly de Leon didn't get in but at least Stephanie Hsu did!

Ditto. But it was a tight category; somebody was going to be squeezed out.

- The snub I *am* most mad about is Decision to Leave not getting in International Feature, a category that's way too Euro-centric especially in a year when there's a lot of Asian talent being honored.

The weird thing is, this recent strong performance by International features in the main categories has been if anything dominated by Asians: Parasite, Minari, Drive My Car. They picked an odd time to snub a prime Asian film.

[Eenusch]

The voting math is interesting for Andrea Riseborough.

Say there are 2,000 members of the actors’ branch. If 20% or 400 are passionate about her performance and they all slot her in as their Number 1 choice on the ballot, she gets in.

The other 1,600 voters may have never heard of her or seen her performance and thus blanked her out entirely.

For years, I used to think that voters chose five nominees and each got one point. Then the top five cumulative scores were the nominees – Not so!

[Mister Tee]

My moment of held breath came in the space between Austin Butler and Colin Farrell's names being read. I thought the push for Cruise was absurd, but worried the "no, really, it's a serious movie" campaign was snowing people. It certainly snowed the writers, who, even in that crap field, passed on better choices (though, to their credit, the cinematographers balked). Anyway, once Farrell's name came second, I slipped into "I'm OK with this" mode, and ended up generally happy with the full slate. (I t reminded me of when Marion Cotillard showed up first in 2014, and I exhaled knowing the Jennifer Aniston farce had fallen short.)

Back up a bit: Except for that Top Gun screenplay atrocity, the first set of categories read out suggested this year was going to go much closer to expectation than last year's wild ride. The supporting actress slate literally duplicated SAG. Original screenplay was everyone's top five. Everything Everywhere pulled off a coup in costume design, then instantly went south in sound (according to Sabin's Rule, this makes it a lesser contender for editing, though I wonder about that this year), but otherwise nominees went mostly according to the chalk. The shorts categories were unknown to most of us, so breezed by (leaving us only wondering just what the hell My Year of Dicks could be about). The only real tremor came near the end of round one, when supporting actor pulled two switches: trading HIrsch for Dano, and improbably citing Brian Tyree Henry.

I say improbably not to judge whether he deserved it (I won't know till I watch, likely tonight), but because, in the era of ten best picture nominees, it has become almost impossible for an actor to get a first nomination in support without a connection to a best picture or lead performer nominee.

Picking Hirsch over Dano's far more extensive performance reminded me a bit of 1994, when voters chose Paul Scofield's limited role over John Turturro's more central character. Though, in this case, they opted for the more flamboyant performance over the more reserved, the opposite of that case.

Anyway, that surprise-laden category set the tone for the second round of reveals, which offered one unexpected result after another: Ciao Papa missing from song (this after Desplat fell short under score); All Quiet, despite all its successes, missing a seemingly likely editing; Decision to Leave getting euchred out of the crowded International Film field; and, most shocking and best (until the top categories), Top Gun: Maverick being omitted from a category in which it seemed a slam dunk winner.

But that was all just prelude to the explosive best actress result (after best actor had allayed my fears and actually went with the 5 I warily predicted). The Riseborough thing, as we've all been saying, was totally uncharted territory; her actually appearing sent a jolt through the room. Especially since her spot in the alphabetical order was precisely where the fully-expected Danielle Deadwyler would have appeared. Viola Davis was already gone by then, but I don't think anyone was ever fully committed to Davis as a nominee -- yes, she turned up on every precursor list, but always as filler nominee, and such candidates are always vulnerable, especially if their films are crapping out elsewhere. But there's no denying the awkward look created by two black hopefuls getting bumped in favor of obscure candidates like de Armas and Riseborough, plus a borderline-supporting one like Williams. I understand the easy slide to "voters are just racist" -- Tyree Henry nailing his not-easy slot is something of a counter-argument, but you can note that it's been easier for black performers to grab supporting nods than lead ones, and here was a chance for the rare two black best actress nominees situation, which was somehow fumbled down to zero.

I can't say exactly why this happened, but I will note that I, to date, have been unable to see Till -- I had a week in November where I was under the weather; by the time I recovered, the film had disappeared from theatres, and it's only hit the disc rental market this past week (and immediately jumped to the Long Wait category). When a film is pushing one performance and nothing else, it really needs maximum effort, and maybe it didn't quite get that.

I should have stuck with my original instinct, that Ruben Ostlund was the sort of foreign director who gets a nomination from the directing branch. Though he worked in English this time around, his film had the auteurist sensibility the branch prefers. Some would be sticklers and say it's the first line-up without a foreign-language nominee since 2017, but I'd say the spirit of opening up to internationalism was furthered by this choice.

The most notable aspect of the best picture slate was the inclusion of Avatar with an even more paltry resume than Nightmare Alley last year (3 little tech noms plus Bassett)(ON EDIT: Thanks to all for not riding me for this brain cramp, which mashed together the two big blockbusters I haven't bother seeing) and Women Talking with the even thinner single nod, albeit in screenplay. Women Talking feels like it got its best picture posting in something of the way Selma did in 2014: it was boxed out of many five-wide categories, but, for esthetic and political reasons, had enough deeply committed partisans to qualify in the field of 10.

Everything Everywhere certainly had its spots of over-performance, but I'd say Banshees, Elvis and (at a lower level) TAR also did better than they might have (with Fabelmans at least holding serve). It's only a week or so ago that okri documented how misleading over-performance has been in recent years, so I wouldn't jump to anything just yet. At the same time, you'd have to note that Guillermo's Pinocchio, Avatar and Top Gun: Maverick all under-scored a bit.

It feels like a number of categories became more opaque today, not less -- some for omitting potential winners (cinematography, among others, but maybe The Whale in adapted screenplay, Decision to Leave in International). The Whale's missing best picture (contra PGA) might hobble the Brendan Fraser express a bit (while Elvis' strong performance helps Butler). Riseborough getting that actress nod could peel votes from Blanchett in the "I appreciate totally committed acting" niche, boosting Yeoh.

And, Sabin, I have to dispute your characterization of Everything Everywhere as a "likely" SAG Ensemble winner. Obviously, it CAN win, if it just turns out to be the majority's favorite movie (a la Slumdog or Hidden Figures). But every person I speak to about Banshees, the first thing they say is, The actors were amazing. I don't think you can rule out that film taking the prize.

Those will do for initial thoughts. No doubt I'll return with further commentary later.

[Sonic Youth]

Aaaaand... the white anti-wokers are now calling these nominees "racist" because they didn't nominate The Northman for anything.

So, nobody's happy.

[Okri]

Gonna be honest and say it wouldn't shock me if AMPAS thought Son Lux was a person and not a band. I did.

[Sabin]

I think it's significant that Everything Everywhere All At Once got an original score nomination. Son Lux is an outsider. Although Ryan Lott composed music for The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, this is the band's first original score and this branch nominated them. This branch has made efforts to reach out and bring new talent into the fold, like 2017's crop of Justin Hurwitz, Mica Levi, and Nicholas Britell. But when was the last time a band got nominated for this award? Also Shirley Kurata may not be a newcomer (she's been working for over two decades) but she managed a nomination over a lot of other industry talents. These nominations indicate enthusiasm over... well, let's not say cronyism but close enough to it.

Beyond that, this film didn't really miss out on any nominations save for Best Production Design and Sound. And not for lack of options. Those two nominations for Best Supporting Actress could have gone to Dolly De Leon or Carey Mulligan. That score nomination could've gotten to Alexandre Desplat. That editing nomination could've gone to Avatar, The Fabelmans. That's going to help it on those preferential ballots.

So, what's standing in its way? Rumors that it's a love it or hate it. Which I guess benefits... what? All Quiet on the Western Front? But in terms of upcoming territory, there's the DGA, PGA, SAG, and BAFTA. I think it's the favorite to win the SAG and it probably has a decent shot at the PGA. Either it or Top Gun: Maverick. It has a chance at the BAFTAs. DGA probably goes to Spielberg but who knows? But it's a nomination leader heading towards a likely SAG win. That's not a bad place for it to be.

[Okri]

But again, all hindsight. Everything in the lead up to the nominations is always overthought on my end : "What did we learn, Palmer? I guess we learned not to do it again."

True but the overthinking is one of my favourite bits.

[flipp525]

16 out of the 20 acting Oscar nominees are first-timers. Is that a record for the modern era at least?

I think this is a really exciting stat and saved us from a lot of penciled-in filler nods this year.

Also, to continue the To Leslie conversation since I think I’m one of the only people here who’s seen it, Allison Janney gives a fantastic supporting performance in it as well.

[Okri]

TAR over Top Gun for cinematography is delightful

[Big Magilla]

Argo not only got nominated for editing, it won the award.

There's a first time for everything.

A win for the remake of a previous Oscar winner would be historic. All Quiet on the Western Front is the film that older Academy members might well fall behind given that The Fabelmans will likely be their choice for Best Director and The Banshees of Inisherin for Best Original Screenplay if they want to spread the wealth around.

It could also win for Adapted Screenplay where its director is actually nominated, which would be an upset over Women Talking but still possible.

Other than Best Picture and Best International Film, it could well win several technical categories. Not saying it will happen, but they do love an underdog.

[OscarGuy]

Argo not only got nominated for editing, it won the award.

[anonymous1980]

16 out of the 20 acting Oscar nominees are first-timers. Is that a record for the modern era at least?

[Big Magilla]

I'm glad that the Oscar nominations closed before the BAFTA nominations were announced just so the prognosticators can't claim that BAFTA influenced the voting on All Quiet on the Western Front. It is a thing, coming in a tie for second place with Banshees at 9 nominations each, just two below EEAAO at 11. It could even become the first remake of an Oscar winning film to itself win Best Picture.

Despite the impressive number of nominations it garnered (one nomination shy from tying the record for a foreign film) I think the end result leaves the film with almost no chance of winning best picture (no director, no editing, no nominated performances). Could it become the first Best Picture and International Picture nominee to lose both?

Argo won without director and editing and just one acting nod.

It could be the go-to film for those who don't like EEAAO if they feel votes for The Fabelmans and Banshees won put their favorite over the top.

[Sabin]

I saw a tweet that said "Not getting nominated is such a Burt Fabelman move."

I don't have the energy to venture into all the races. I'm mostly intrigued by how the Best Picture slate panned out.

The top six proved correct. As well as the hunch that All Quiet on the Western Front's big showing meant something, and yet Mister Tee was correct that Edward Berger was too journeyman to triumph over Ruben Ostlund who picked up the foreign director slot of the year despite working in English. The final three were Triangle of Sadness, Avatar: The Way of Water, and Women Talking not some combination of Babylon, Black Panther, RRR, or The Whale. Why? Oh, tons of reasons in hindsight which is why who cares. But how did Women Talking break into the Best Picture roster? I guess being a flop doesn't matter as much for Women Talking as much as Babylon. Also, if Andrea Riseborough has enough industry support to get a nomination, then Plan B and Frances McDormand probably do as well to get their film in front of enough people who matter. How many people in the Academy responded to the subject matter, the storytelling, and (I'll say it) felt it was important to nominate a film directed by a woman? Probably a lot.

But again, all hindsight. Everything in the lead up to the nominations is always overthought on my end : "What did we learn, Palmer? I guess we learned not to do it again."