HarryGoldfarb wrote:The Power of the Dog managed to secure three individual nominations but failed to make it in Cast.
It has happened before. Green Book, The Shape of Water and Nomadland were all not nominated for SAG Ensemble so I don't think it's that big of a deficit.
Agreed. I think the WEST SIDE STORY snub is much more telling. A single nomination from SAG does not speak to strong support from the Acting branch. The SAG crowd seem much more inclined to love this movie than the slightly more high brow Academy. I doubt my wish of a total shut-out at the Oscars will happen, but any hope of it winning Best Picture seems diminished.
A movie like NOMADLAND and THE POWER OF THE DOG can miss Ensemble without it reflecting poorly on the film as a whole, but WEST SIDE STORY needed that nomination.
As for all the other surprise, I suspect this will be one of those years with multiple nominees who do not make it to the Oscars. Seven is still the record for the most number of SAG nominees to be snubbed by the Academy (1996, 2001 and 2015).
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
Best Ensemble
Irvin is right. The Power of the Dog's lack of a Cast nomination doesn't matter. It has three acting nominations, which fits squarely into the track that The Shape of Water and Green Book had to winning.
Over the last ten years, SAG has never gone 5/5 with Best Ensemble Cast being up for Best Picture. Last year, they went with Da 5 Bloods, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, and One Night in Miami... In 2019, they had Bombshell. In 2018, they had Crazy Rich Asians. In 2017, they had Th Big Sick and Mudbound. I could keep going. So on the one hand, I never quite believed that House of Gucci was out of the running but it instantly leaps out as the film most likely to not cross over, at least at this point. I have a friend who has made the case for CODA.
Best Male Lead
I have a question: are we sure this isn't the final five? I'm done guessing. It looks like it to me. Taking an aerial view of Javier Bardem's chances: he's playing a real person, he's playin a real showbiz person, it's a big showy charismatic role, and he's been nominated three times before. Also, I think a lot of the reasons why he wouldn't get in (he's Spanish) aren't things Academy voters really care about.
Best Female Lead
Well, I feel vindicated. I would love to sign onto the Kristen Stewart bandwagon but I couldn't get with her performance at all. At this point, she should be considered borderline at best.
Other observations:
* SAG voters liked Jessica Chastain. They also went for Michael Showalter's other Oscar contender, The Big Sick. Despite her film bombing, Chastain looks like she's fourth in.
* Do I have to see Respect?
* So... is Nicole Kidman winning Best Actress this year? It makes some degree of sense. It's been almost twenty years since her last win.
Best Supporting Male
The clusterfuck that is this category continues...
I'm actually fine with the men of Belfast getting snubbed. It makes some degree of sense given how Belfast is structured. Individual performances and arcs are often reduces to single shots. This does seem to take Ciaran Hinds out of the running for a win completely (Smit-McPhee vs. Kotsur). I haven't seen The Tender Bar but it just screams Rush, The Little Things, etc. The trailer made me break out in hives. But who knows? I'm sure Ben Affleck has normal coverage of his performance as well as a character arc, which puts him head and shoulders above the Belfast guys. Discussing his chances seem reasonably sane compared to Bradley Cooper (I guess he's not the shortest nominated performance...) and Jared Leto (the Letossaince continues). Is this lineup the final five or does one of them get tossed out for Ciaran Hinds?
Poor Mike Faist.
Best Supporting Female
Good for Ruth Negga! I wasn't sure about her chances because I just wasn't sure if Passing was getting seen but between this, her Golden Globe nomination, and her National Society of Film Critics win, she seems to be on solid ground. I wouldn't have any problem supporting her for a win. Beyond that, Ariana DeBose seems to be in front-runner standing, Kirsten Dunst is comfortable in nomination-zone, as is Caitriona Balfe who at the very least has a crying scene. That leaves Cate Blanchett as probably the big "WTF?" performance of the morning. This is her fifteenth nomination total from this group (six are for Cast, one is for TV). I'm guessing this won't equal a win and Aunjanue Ellis will get in. Very odd that King Richard got a Cast nomination but Ellis wasn't singled out.
Anyway, this and Best Actor seem the most locked in to me.
Early winner predictions: Best Ensemble Cast: Belfast Best Male Lead: Will Smith, King Richard Best Female Lead: Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos Best Supporting Male: Troy Kotsur, CODA Best Supporting Female: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
In best actor, if not Bardem, then who? I keep thinking about Nicolas Cage in Pig. But is he a case of a Willem Dafoe in At Eternity's Gate or a Ehtan Hawke in First Reformed?
For best actress the field keeps to be crowded. Common sense would say that Kirsten Stewart replaces Hudson, but, I have a sense that Penelope Cruz can pull a nomination as the foreign representative although she missed the BAFTA longlist (in fact, if you check the longlist, anyone of the 15 could make it to the oscars).
In supporting actress Blanchett was cited here for Nightmare Alley but for Don't Look Up at BAFTA. I say she doesn't make it at the oscars for neither performance. I would say that Jessie Buckley could pull the annual "no precursors showing out of the blue nomination".
Affleck did not make it at BAFTA as well (was it eligeble?). Both Belfast actors did. I would say that they both replace Leto and Affleck.
HarryGoldfarb wrote:The Power of the Dog managed to secure three individual nominations but failed to make it in Cast.
It has happened before. Green Book, The Shape of Water and Nomadland were all not nominated for SAG Ensemble so I don't think it's that big of a deficit.
“Belfast”
“CODA”
“Don’t Look Up”
“House of Gucci”
“King Richard”
Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
Andrew Garfield, “Tick Tick Boom”
Will Smith, “King Richard”
Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture
Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”
Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”
Jennifer Hudson, “Respect”
Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”
Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Ben Affleck, “The Tender Bar”
Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Jared Leto, “House of Gucci”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”
Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Catriona Balfe, “Belfast”
Cate Blanchett, “Nightmare Alley”
Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”
Ruth Negga, “Passing”
Kristen Stewart and the Belfast men in Supporting are the biggest snubs of the morning.
