Hey everyone. It's criddic's mom.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4wQfQtpDAc
2008 Polling
I've seen several articles and heard several pundits refer to the AP poll, as well as others that show a closer race. I don't think Obama is headed for a landslide. It can happen, yes, but I just don't think so. Denial, no. I acknowledge that is possible. I have also said in the past that this is a bad year for Republicans. However, John McCain still has a lot of appeal for many voters, while Barack Obama still poses a challenge for people who are only now beginning to see what his presidency might look like. My bet is that a lot of people don't like what they see, and it has nothing to do with race.
Edited By criddic3 on 1224873022
Edited By criddic3 on 1224873022
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
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Big Magilla
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Reuters now has Obama with a 12 point lead.
I haven't been paying much attention to the AP poll, in fact I wasn't even conscious of the fact that they had one, but the headline yesterday struck me as awfully odd given that everyone else including Fox News has Obama so far ahead.
I had no idea the wire service had been overtaken by the evangelical movement, but it's plainly obvious to me now in the way they hang on every word McCain utter while stopping just short of ridiculing Obama. This is jaundiced reporting.
I'd remove AP news from my Yahoo page except that they're faster with breaking news than Reuters.
I haven't been paying much attention to the AP poll, in fact I wasn't even conscious of the fact that they had one, but the headline yesterday struck me as awfully odd given that everyone else including Fox News has Obama so far ahead.
I had no idea the wire service had been overtaken by the evangelical movement, but it's plainly obvious to me now in the way they hang on every word McCain utter while stopping just short of ridiculing Obama. This is jaundiced reporting.
I'd remove AP news from my Yahoo page except that they're faster with breaking news than Reuters.
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Sonic Youth
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criddic3 wrote:A blog debunked the AP? Right. So a poll comes out saying that McCain is not doing as badly as the media wants and they decide it's not possibly true.
Luckily, the AP is not the only poll that shows that McCain has made some small gains in recent days. But even the AP poll isn't saying that McCain is ahead. So what's the problem? I think the problem is that the leftist portion of the media (which is most of the media) are afraid that this might be true, that John McCain can still win this election.
Hello, criddic! Remember Kübler-Ross's "Five Stages of Grief" we discussed two years ago?
1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance
Looks like you're at stage 3. My heart goes out to you as your face the final hurdle to acceptance.
Oh, and McCain's closing the gap (if that's what's happening) is all well and good, but he chose the wrong year to do it since one-third of the country is expected to participate in early voting this year. When the pollsters take their day-before-Election-Day surveys, and McCain has come this close to narrowing the race, the early voters will be unfairly represented in these polls, because they will have already voted! And they'll have voted within that "snapshot of time" way back when Obama was substantially ahead.
Too little, too late. Sorry.
"What the hell?"
Win Butler
Win Butler
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Johnny Guitar
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Criddic is so incredibly hilarious in this thread!
(Folks: check out a true patriot with the experience and expertise we need.)
Edited By Johnny Guitar on 1224728964
(Folks: check out a true patriot with the experience and expertise we need.)
Edited By Johnny Guitar on 1224728964
Penelope wrote:You truly are delusional.
I agree. I'm looking forward to when criddic goes back into his self-deluded hole after the election is over.
Edited By flipp525 on 1224727246
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."
-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com is an amazing statistician who does a terrific job of evaluating the various pollsters. See today's post entitled Some Likely Voter Models are Suspect for a well-reasoned argument for why many pollsters are underestimating Obama's lead.
A blog debunked the AP? Right. So a poll comes out saying that McCain is not doing as badly as the media wants and they decide it's not possibly true.
Luckily, the AP is not the only poll that shows that McCain has made some small gains in recent days. But even the AP poll isn't saying that McCain is ahead. So what's the problem? I think the problem is that the leftist portion of the media (which is most of the media) are afraid that this might be true, that John McCain can still win this election.
Luckily, the AP is not the only poll that shows that McCain has made some small gains in recent days. But even the AP poll isn't saying that McCain is ahead. So what's the problem? I think the problem is that the leftist portion of the media (which is most of the media) are afraid that this might be true, that John McCain can still win this election.
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
The A.P. has been demonstrably shilling for McCain throughout this election season. So much so that a number of major newspapers are cutting their ties with the news organization.
"Y'know, that's one of the things I like about Mitt Romney. He's been consistent since he changed his mind." -- Christine O'Donnell
New AP poll debunked by Americablog:
New flawed AP poll claims McCain and Obama are tied. Will AP's pollster take Nate Silver's challenge?
Joe Sudbay (DC) · 10/22/2008 04:59:00 PM ET
The Associated Press has released a poll that shows a much closer race than any other poll out ther. Now, Liz "I know what kind of donuts John McCain really likes" Sidoti must have been gleeful that she was chosen to write John McCain's "comeback" piece.
But, the poll doesn't make sense on many levels. Here's one example: 45% of this poll's respondents are evangelicals or born-again Christians. The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible.
In 2000 and 2004, there was a very aggressive push for the evangelical vote. In 2000, when the question was asked "Do you consider yourself part of the conservative Christian political movement," 14% of voters said "yes" in exit polls. In 2004, when the question was changed to "Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?" - the very category AP uses in its current poll - 23% of voters said yes in exit polls.
Did you get that? The percentage of evangelicals/born-agains voting in 2004 was 23%. The percentage of evangelicals/born-agains that AP included in their likely voters scenario is 44%. That's almost twice as many. Consider that 79% of evangelicals voted Republican in the 2004 presidential elections, and we can assume that anyone calling themselves "born-again" might be more prone to voter Republican. This means AP disproportionately skewed its polling towards the GOP base. So it's no surprise that the AP poll shows McCain doing better than in other polls.
With such an outlier, one wonders why the brain trust at AP decided to move ahead releasing this poll. But, the AP brain trust loves McCain. It's not just Sidoti. Remember, AP's Washington bureau chief almost went to work for McCain. He's in that donut video, too.
As Nate Silver so clearly explains, the likely voter models being used by some pollsters, including AP's partner, GfK, aren't making sense. In fact, Nate has issued a challenge to the pollsters who have a wide gap in their models:
I would like to issue a challenge to those pollsters like Franklin & Marshall and GfK which in spite of all the facts above, are showing a substantial shift toward the Republicans when they apply their likely voter models. E-mail me -- my contact information is at the top of the page -- and tell me why you think what you're doing is good science.
I would like to issue a challenge to the Associated Press, too: Put aside your friendship with John McCain, please. At least for the next two weeks, be the objective new source you used to be.
New flawed AP poll claims McCain and Obama are tied. Will AP's pollster take Nate Silver's challenge?
Joe Sudbay (DC) · 10/22/2008 04:59:00 PM ET
The Associated Press has released a poll that shows a much closer race than any other poll out ther. Now, Liz "I know what kind of donuts John McCain really likes" Sidoti must have been gleeful that she was chosen to write John McCain's "comeback" piece.
But, the poll doesn't make sense on many levels. Here's one example: 45% of this poll's respondents are evangelicals or born-again Christians. The problem? In 2004, evangelicals/born-again Christians made up 23% of voters. But that same group makes up 44% of likely voters in AP's poll released today. That's almost double the number - it's totally implausible.
In 2000 and 2004, there was a very aggressive push for the evangelical vote. In 2000, when the question was asked "Do you consider yourself part of the conservative Christian political movement," 14% of voters said "yes" in exit polls. In 2004, when the question was changed to "Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?" - the very category AP uses in its current poll - 23% of voters said yes in exit polls.
Did you get that? The percentage of evangelicals/born-agains voting in 2004 was 23%. The percentage of evangelicals/born-agains that AP included in their likely voters scenario is 44%. That's almost twice as many. Consider that 79% of evangelicals voted Republican in the 2004 presidential elections, and we can assume that anyone calling themselves "born-again" might be more prone to voter Republican. This means AP disproportionately skewed its polling towards the GOP base. So it's no surprise that the AP poll shows McCain doing better than in other polls.
With such an outlier, one wonders why the brain trust at AP decided to move ahead releasing this poll. But, the AP brain trust loves McCain. It's not just Sidoti. Remember, AP's Washington bureau chief almost went to work for McCain. He's in that donut video, too.
As Nate Silver so clearly explains, the likely voter models being used by some pollsters, including AP's partner, GfK, aren't making sense. In fact, Nate has issued a challenge to the pollsters who have a wide gap in their models:
I would like to issue a challenge to those pollsters like Franklin & Marshall and GfK which in spite of all the facts above, are showing a substantial shift toward the Republicans when they apply their likely voter models. E-mail me -- my contact information is at the top of the page -- and tell me why you think what you're doing is good science.
I would like to issue a challenge to the Associated Press, too: Put aside your friendship with John McCain, please. At least for the next two weeks, be the objective new source you used to be.
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch
By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer Liz Sidoti, Associated Press Writer
15 mins ago
WASHINGTON – The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.
The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.
"I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.
But Karen Judd, 58, of Middleton, Wis., said, "Obama certainly has sufficient qualifications." She said any positive feelings about McCain evaporated with "the outright lying" in TV ads and his choice of running mate Sarah Palin, who "doesn't have the correct skills."
The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.
Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points.
Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions.
Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs, in part, because pollsters interview random samples of people.
"If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong," he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a few points of each other, adding, "When you get much beyond that, there's something to explain."
The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.
A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.
It was taken over five days from Thursday through Monday, starting the night after the candidates' final debate and ending the day after former Secretary of State Colin Powell broke with the Republican Party to endorse Obama.
McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting.
During their final debate, a feisty McCain repeatedly forced Obama to defend his record, comments and associations. He also used the story of a voter whom the Democrat had met in Ohio, "Joe the plumber," to argue that Obama's tax plan would be bad for working class voters.
"I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody," Obama told the man with the last name of Wurzelbacher, who had asked Obama whether his plan to increase taxes on those earning more than $250,000 a year would impede his ability to buy the plumbing company where he works.
On Wednesday, McCain's campaign unveiled a new TV ad that features that Obama quote, and shows different people saying: "I'm Joe the plumber." A man asks: "Obama wants my sweat to pay for his trillion dollars in new spending?"
Since McCain has seized on that line of argument, he has picked up support among white married people and non-college educated whites, the poll shows, while widening his advantage among white men. Black voters still overwhelmingly support Obama.
The Republican also has improved his rating for handling the economy and the financial crisis. Nearly half of likely voters think their taxes will rise under an Obama administration compared with a third who say McCain would raise their taxes.
Since the last AP-GfK survey in late September, McCain also has:
_Posted big gains among likely voters earning under $50,000 a year; he now trails Obama by just 4 percentage points compared with 26 earlier.
_Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.
_Doubled his advantage among whites who haven't finished college and now leads by 20 points. McCain and Obama are running about even among white college graduates, no change from earlier.
_Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22 points among white men and by 7 among white women.
_Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point lead.
_Narrowed a gap among unmarried whites, though he still trails by 8 points.
McCain has cut into Obama's advantage on the questions of whom voters trust to handle the economy and the financial crisis. On both, the Democrat now leads by just 6 points, compared with 15 in the previous survey.
Obama still has a larger advantage on other economic measures, with 44 percent saying they think the economy will have improved a year from now if he is elected compared with 34 percent for McCain.
Intensity has increased among McCain's supporters.
A month ago, Obama had more strong supporters than McCain did. Now, the number of excited supporters is about even.
Eight of 10 Democrats are supporting Obama, while nine in 10 Republicans are backing McCain. Independents are about evenly split.
Some 24 percent of likely voters were deemed still persuadable, meaning they were either undecided or said they might switch candidates. Those up-for-grabs voters came about equally from the three categories: undecideds, McCain supporters and Obama backers.
Said John Ormesher, 67, of Dandridge, Tenn.: "I've got respect for them but that's the extent of it. I don't have a whole lot of affinity toward either one of them. They're both part of the same political mess."
___
AP Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson, AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and AP writer Alan Fram contributed to this report.
By LIZ SIDOTI, Associated Press Writer Liz Sidoti, Associated Press Writer
15 mins ago
WASHINGTON – The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.
The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.
Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.
The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.
"I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.
But Karen Judd, 58, of Middleton, Wis., said, "Obama certainly has sufficient qualifications." She said any positive feelings about McCain evaporated with "the outright lying" in TV ads and his choice of running mate Sarah Palin, who "doesn't have the correct skills."
The new AP-GfK head-to-head result is a departure from some, but not all, recent national polls.
Obama and McCain were essentially tied among likely voters in the latest George Washington University Battleground Poll, conducted by Republican strategist Ed Goeas and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. In other surveys focusing on likely voters, a Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Obama up by 9 percentage points, while a poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center had Obama leading by 14. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, among the broader category of people registered to vote, found Obama ahead by 10 points.
Polls are snapshots of highly fluid campaigns. In this case, there is a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; that means Obama could be ahead by as many as 8 points or down by as many as 6. There are many reasons why polls differ, including methods of estimating likely voters and the wording of questions.
Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor and polling authority, said variation between polls occurs, in part, because pollsters interview random samples of people.
"If they all agree, somebody would be doing something terribly wrong," he said of polls. But he also said that surveys generally fall within a few points of each other, adding, "When you get much beyond that, there's something to explain."
The AP-GfK survey included interviews with a large sample of adults including 800 deemed likely to vote. Among all 1,101 adults interviewed, the survey showed Obama ahead 47 percent to 37 percent. He was up by five points among registered voters.
A significant number of the interviews were conducted by dialing a randomly selected sample of cell phone numbers, and thus this poll had a chance to reach voters who were excluded from some other polls.
It was taken over five days from Thursday through Monday, starting the night after the candidates' final debate and ending the day after former Secretary of State Colin Powell broke with the Republican Party to endorse Obama.
McCain's strong showing is partly attributable to his strong debate performance; Thursday was his best night of the survey. Obama's best night was Sunday, hours after the Powell announcement, and the full impact of that endorsement may not have been captured in any surveys yet. Future polling could show whether either of those was merely a support "bounce" or something more lasting.
During their final debate, a feisty McCain repeatedly forced Obama to defend his record, comments and associations. He also used the story of a voter whom the Democrat had met in Ohio, "Joe the plumber," to argue that Obama's tax plan would be bad for working class voters.
"I think when you spread the wealth around, it's good for everybody," Obama told the man with the last name of Wurzelbacher, who had asked Obama whether his plan to increase taxes on those earning more than $250,000 a year would impede his ability to buy the plumbing company where he works.
On Wednesday, McCain's campaign unveiled a new TV ad that features that Obama quote, and shows different people saying: "I'm Joe the plumber." A man asks: "Obama wants my sweat to pay for his trillion dollars in new spending?"
Since McCain has seized on that line of argument, he has picked up support among white married people and non-college educated whites, the poll shows, while widening his advantage among white men. Black voters still overwhelmingly support Obama.
The Republican also has improved his rating for handling the economy and the financial crisis. Nearly half of likely voters think their taxes will rise under an Obama administration compared with a third who say McCain would raise their taxes.
Since the last AP-GfK survey in late September, McCain also has:
_Posted big gains among likely voters earning under $50,000 a year; he now trails Obama by just 4 percentage points compared with 26 earlier.
_Surged among rural voters; he has an 18-point advantage, up from 4.
_Doubled his advantage among whites who haven't finished college and now leads by 20 points. McCain and Obama are running about even among white college graduates, no change from earlier.
_Made modest gains among whites of both genders, now leading by 22 points among white men and by 7 among white women.
_Improved slightly among whites who are married, now with a 24-point lead.
_Narrowed a gap among unmarried whites, though he still trails by 8 points.
McCain has cut into Obama's advantage on the questions of whom voters trust to handle the economy and the financial crisis. On both, the Democrat now leads by just 6 points, compared with 15 in the previous survey.
Obama still has a larger advantage on other economic measures, with 44 percent saying they think the economy will have improved a year from now if he is elected compared with 34 percent for McCain.
Intensity has increased among McCain's supporters.
A month ago, Obama had more strong supporters than McCain did. Now, the number of excited supporters is about even.
Eight of 10 Democrats are supporting Obama, while nine in 10 Republicans are backing McCain. Independents are about evenly split.
Some 24 percent of likely voters were deemed still persuadable, meaning they were either undecided or said they might switch candidates. Those up-for-grabs voters came about equally from the three categories: undecideds, McCain supporters and Obama backers.
Said John Ormesher, 67, of Dandridge, Tenn.: "I've got respect for them but that's the extent of it. I don't have a whole lot of affinity toward either one of them. They're both part of the same political mess."
___
AP Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson, AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius and AP writer Alan Fram contributed to this report.
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
No, I understand completely that Democrats are deemed better on economic issues. Obama definitely benefits from that, but I still don't see anything that he has accomplished that shows he would individually be able to follow through as President. He has no record of getting anything done or working with the opposite side of the aisle. You know, I think I said early on that Obama interested me. I listened to what he had to say. When he started talking in the Democratic Party debates about talking to our enemies without preconditions, I knew I could not consider voting for him. And he's just proven to be the wrong candidate for me ever since. That was before all the stuff about Rev. Wright and Ayers, and Rezko, etc. And it was before he couldn't help himself from giving a b.s. answer about abortion in the Rick Warren forum. If you support a woman's "right to choose," then say it, don't say "it's above my pay grade." I just can't trust him.Big Magilla wrote:criddic3 wrote:It's puzzling to me. What has Obama done to deserve these votes? Nothing. He wins by doing nothing?
I won't even attempt to argue ideology with you, which would be like talking to a brick wall, but I would think it was plainly obvious by now that neither Obama nor Hillary or any other halphway competent democrat wouldn't really have to do much in this economy
It's too bad that someone who is so captivating in his speech-making can be so wrong for the job.
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
flipp525 wrote:I was just on Drudge (who is a huge homo, btw, I know someone who's fucked him, too) and the top story they are reporting is that Obama's plane smells. That's right, folks. Breaking news that could swing the entire election: Senator Obama's Plane Carries an Odor. What is that?
I'm sure you also know someone on Obama's plane (someone who's a closeted mo, no doubt). So can you find out for us if it indeed smells?
