2009 box-office Predix - Why not?

[matthew]

James Cameron either has a pact with the devil to create a worldwide mass hypnosis, or he really is just the most crowd-pleasing director in the history of cinema.

Spielberg still shits on Cameron as far as the popularity of his films go in North America. Adjusted, Cameron has only 2 films (soon to be 3) in the top 100 of all time (in today's dollars):

6. Titanic ($921,523,500)
95. Terminator 2: Judgement Day ($349,352,800)

Spielberg has 8 films in the top 100 (including 2 in the top 10!):
4. E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial ($1,018,514,100)
7. Jaws ($919,605,900)
16. Raiders of the Lost Ark ($632,858,500)
17. Jurassic Park ($618,957,900)
69: Close Encounter of the Third Kind ($399,032,400)
83: Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom ($384,365,600)
92: The Lost World: Jurassic Park ($358,353,400)
93: Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade ($354,810,400)

Even George Lucas has 5 in the top 100 including the 2nd highest grossing film of all time.

Based on current box office takings for Avatar, it looks like it's gonna end up being about as popular as Raiders of the Lost Ark or Jurassic Park which is still phenomenal, but not not up there with the greatest box-office achievements known to mankind...



Edited By matthew on 1262600457

[Franz Ferdinand]

I am still reserving judgement on the domestic front until this coming weekend when the holiday gravy train has passed. It seems like Avatar has a mortal lock on the fourth weekend record (barring some epic collapse), and if it decreases less than 30%, there is a very real possibility that Titanic's days on top are numbered. It has averaged nearly $20M per day this holiday season. Whether it flames out or keeps puttering away will be seen.

Either way, Avatar made over $1B worldwide in 17 days. Higher ticket prices for 3D or not, that is just unfuckwithable. And of course there is more to come, perhaps even approaching $2B. The Dark Knight couldn't do that in over a year of release, and that was supposedly the biggest box office performer of the decade. James Cameron either has a pact with the devil to create a worldwide mass hypnosis, or he really is just the most crowd-pleasing director in the history of cinema. Either way, people dumping on him for the past decade must be eating a Pandora-sized shit sandwich right now.



Edited By Franz Ferdinand on 1262579671

[anonymous1980]

Another reason why Avatar is making so much money is that a lot of people are seeing it on 3D/IMAX probably moreso than any other film on 3D/IMAX and those cost a tad more money than regular 2D theaters.

[matthew]

What's with the attitude?

And this is a big deal, considering that this is its THIRD weekend in release and it actually INCREASED from last Friday to this Friday.

I was being delighted, MovieWes, not ironic. I am truly amazed with Avatar's box office status. And also LOVE the film.

I'm sorry that I misread your post. I thought I detected some sarcasm. I apologize.

I thought the movie was really good, but nowhere near as good as The Lord of the Rings trilogy, The Dark Knight, Iron Man, or even the first Pirates of the Caribbean movie, all giant Hollywood blockbusters in their own right. However, I'm really excited at the prospect that Titanic might finally be sunk after all these years at the top. And by James Cameron himself.

I just have to wonder, however, what James Cameron knows that nobody else in Hollywood knows. If this does end up surpassing Titanic's $600 million, or even if it just surpasses The Dark Knight's $533 million, James Cameron will have both the #1 and #2 spots of all-time to himself. Hollywood has been trying for years to beat Titanic, from the Star Wars prequels to The Lord of the Rings trilogy to all the superhero franchises like Spider-Man and Batman. And nothing, with the exception of The Dark Knight, has even threatened to come within $150 million of touching it.

And all this time, everybody was berating James Cameron for resting on his laurels after Titanic became the all-time box-office and Oscar champion. And now, here he is 12 years later with his first movie since Titanic and it is poised to become, at the very least, the highest grossing film of all-time worldwide, and possibly even the all-time North American box-office champ. Does he have a better grasp on what audiences want to see than anybody else in Hollywood, or has he just been lucky a couple of times?

Combination of knowing what mass audiences want and luck...

But it's enevitable that another film will come along and top Titanic simply because ticket prices keep going up. As I posted before, when Avatar makes over 900 million dollars, then it will be on the same level of popularity as Titanic...

[Zahveed]

I now know how the Dark Knight-haters on this board felt last year. And I like Avatar.

I second that sentiment.

[MovieWes]

$25 M on Friday?

Oh my God... Fascinating.

What's with the attitude?

And this is a big deal, considering that this is its THIRD weekend in release and it actually INCREASED from last Friday to this Friday.

I was being delighted, MovieWes, not ironic. I am truly amazed with Avatar's box office status. And also LOVE the film.

I'm sorry that I misread your post. I thought I detected some sarcasm. I apologize.

I thought the movie was really good, but nowhere near as good as The Lord of the Rings trilogy, The Dark Knight, Iron Man, or even the first Pirates of the Caribbean movie, all giant Hollywood blockbusters in their own right. However, I'm really excited at the prospect that Titanic might finally be sunk after all these years at the top. And by James Cameron himself.

I just have to wonder, however, what James Cameron knows that nobody else in Hollywood knows. If this does end up surpassing Titanic's $600 million, or even if it just surpasses The Dark Knight's $533 million, James Cameron will have both the #1 and #2 spots of all-time to himself. Hollywood has been trying for years to beat Titanic, from the Star Wars prequels to The Lord of the Rings trilogy to all the superhero franchises like Spider-Man and Batman. And nothing, with the exception of The Dark Knight, has even threatened to come within $150 million of touching it.

And all this time, everybody was berating James Cameron for resting on his laurels after Titanic became the all-time box-office and Oscar champion. And now, here he is 12 years later with his first movie since Titanic and it is poised to become, at the very least, the highest grossing film of all-time worldwide, and possibly even the all-time North American box-office champ. Does he have a better grasp on what audiences want to see than anybody else in Hollywood, or has he just been lucky a couple of times?

[dreaMaker]

$25 M on Friday?

Oh my God... Fascinating.

What's with the attitude?

And this is a big deal, considering that this is its THIRD weekend in release and it actually INCREASED from last Friday to this Friday.

I was being delighted, MovieWes, not ironic. I am truly amazed with Avatar's box office status. And also LOVE the film.

[Sabin]

I now know how the Dark Knight-haters on this board felt last year. And I like Avatar.

[MovieWes]

Well, Avatar broke another record by becoming the first movie to gross $1 billion worldwide in under three weeks... 17 days to be exact. The previous record was 40 days, held by The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King.

[MovieWes]

Friday Box Office Analysis
By Tim Briody
January 2, 2010

Avatar

After last week's spectacular Christmas weekend performance, Avatar (and virtually everything else) benefits from having New Year's Day fall on Friday, as it's up 11% from Christmas Day to $25.7 million. New Year's Day is typically the last hurrah for films as people generally return to work and school afterwards but with it falling on a Friday, expect Saturday to be fairly decent while Sunday behaves normally as people brace themselves for a return to the grind on Monday.

Avatar has now crossed $300 million with ease and $400 million is a mortal lock at this point. Last weekend's multiplier was 3.27. Based on the strength of Friday, there's a good chance Avatar actually makes more this weekend than it did over the first two, unless Saturday is considerably weaker than expected. The extraordinary word-of-mouth this thing has seen has made this awfully difficult to predict, even with two weekends of data. Even using a 3.0 multiplier means a weekend of $77.1 million.

Sherlock Holmes

While all pre-Christmas releases are up, Christmas Day openers all suffer from last Friday. While some aren't down all that much (It's Complicated is off 2%) Sherlock Holmes is by far the biggest offender of the bunch, falling 39% from last Friday to $14.9 million. That's a rather alarming amount considering the next biggest drop is now confirmed flop Nine (down 29%) and then after that it's Alvin and the Chipmunks (down 6%). The moderate to negative word-of-mouth seems to be the biggest factor here as those undecided when they get to the theater appear to be choosing Avatar in large numbers. Give it $37 million for the second weekend.

Notable Holdovers

The drops for the other openers last week have already been covered. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel will cross $150 million in two weekends and It's Complicated certainly holds its own as a choice of older audiences, while Nine is officially a disaster and even with ten nominees likely has seen its shot at a Best Picture nominee evaporate.

The Blind Side has crossed $200 million and may not have enough steam to get to $250 million as we reach the end of the holiday box office money train, it's still by a decent margin the biggest hit of Sandra Bullock's career. Give it another $13.5 million.

The biggest winner due to how the calendar worked is The Princess and the Frog. It's up 89% from last Friday to $3.7 million. It might not duplicate last weekend's 4.28 multiplier but $100 million is still in the realm of possibility, which is great for something traditionally animated. Look for $12.1 million for the weekend.

Projected Estimates for the Top Ten (Three-Day)
Projected
Rank

Film

Estimated Gross
1 Avatar 77.1
2 Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel 43.7
3 Sherlock Holmes 37.0
4 It's Complicated 21.1
5 The Blind Side 13.5
6 Up in the Air 12.7
7 The Princess and the Frog 12.1
8 Did You Hear About the Morgans? 4.7
9 Invictus 4.3
10 Nine 4.2

[MovieWes]

$25 M on Friday?

Oh my God... Fascinating.

What's with the attitude?

And this is a big deal, considering that this is its THIRD weekend in release and it actually INCREASED from last Friday to this Friday.

[dreaMaker]

$25 M on Friday?

Oh my God... Fascinating.

[MovieWes]

Avatar made another $25 million on Friday and is projected to make between $59-62 million this weekend. I don't understand how they came up with that number, though, since it made $23 million on Friday last weekend and ended up making $75 million over the 3 day period. I think that they're lowballing it and that we're going to see the third weekend gross over $70 million. It could even match the opening weekend of $77 million, seeing as it has been making more money this week than last week.



Edited By MovieWes on 1262451446

[MovieWes]

Looks like it has made 107% of the first week's gross in its second week.

When was the last time a film that has gone as wide as this has made more in its second week than its first?

It hasn't been done since Titanic, but even Titanic didn't gross ridiculously high numbers daily like Avatar has. I think Avatar is the first movie in history to gross more than $10 million everyday for 2 weeks.

What's even more amazing is the way it's performing overseas. It's looking very likely that it will become the first movie to gross over $1 billion worldwide in 3 weeks or less. It may not surpass Titanic domestically, but it's very possible that it will become the highest grossing film ever worldwide.

[matthew]

Looks like it has made 107% of the first week's gross in its second week.

When was the last time a film that has gone as wide as this has made more in its second week than its first?