2008 Polling

[Sonic Youth]

Is this where we put our predictions?

I predict Obama 52%, McCain 47% (other 1%). No popular landslide but it doesn't matter. With a winner take all presidency and Democratic gains in both houses, it amounts to an ass-wupping landslide anyway. And the gap would be twice as large as the '04 election.

Electoral college - Obama 314, McCain 224. Obama wins 45 points above the necessary majority. THAT'S a landslide. Swing states, Obama wins Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, maaaaybe North Dakota. McCain takes Georgia, Montana, and maaaybe Florida. Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri? Who knows, but in the spirit of non-partisanship (or pessimism), I'll give them to McCain in three squeakers. Obama still wins.

These are just guesses based on looking at a veritable blur of poll after poll.

Senate, Dems will come away with 58 or 59 seats depending on what Georgia does (run-off election). That's short of 60, but the Dems really need 61 seats, not 60. If they get 60, you can be sure Leiberman will suddenly decide to no longer caucus with them. As for House seats, yes the Dems will win House seats.

And nobody say anything stupid like "The pundits never predicted the Reagan landslide in 1980!" as some bloggers of a particular political bent have been doing. Yeah okay, they didn't, and that little piece of history has less than no bearing to this year.



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1225780641

[Sonic Youth]

Oh, and one more thing. There is the very, very unlikely scenario that all the independents/undecideds finally decide to break for McCain. But for that to happen, a substantial number of these indies/undies would have to be prior Bush supporting Republicans, now utterly disenchanted with Bush and congressional GOPers that they went Independent. But then poor criddic would have to own up to the fact that McCain won on the ex-Republican, anti-Bush vote.

[Sonic Youth]

McCain can tighten up the popular vote as much as he wants (and new polls show they're LOOSENING), but naturally that begs the question as to the distribution of these new votes.

Nate Silver says in order for McCain to be victorious, he must win Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, and Ohio.

Not one of them. Not a combination of them. ALL of them. Every one.

And this guy knows his shit.



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1225728425

[Damien]

"The latest ABCNews/Washington Post tracking poll indicates that McCain has closed the overall gap with Obama from 11 points to seven points."

criidic, Read it and weep.

From the AP

Barack Obama now leads in four states won by President Bush in 2004 and is essentially tied with John McCain in two other Republican red states, according to new AP-GfK battleground polling.

The polling shows Obama holding solid leads in Ohio (7 percentage points), Nevada (12 points), Colorado (9) and Virginia (7), all red states won by Bush that collectively offer 47 electoral votes.

In addition, Obama is tied with McCain in North Carolina and Florida, according to the AP-GfK polling.

======================

Florida
Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 47%, McCain ® 45%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 50%, McCain ® 43%

Oct 27 Datamar: Obama (D) 49%, McCain ® 44%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 51%, McCain ® 47%

Oct 27 Suffolk: Obama (D) 49%, McCain ® 44%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 47%, McCain ® 47%

Oct 24 Str. Vision ®: McCain ® 48%, Obama (D) 46%


Ohio

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 51%, McCain ® 42%

Oct 28 LAT/Bloomberg: Obama (D) 49%, McCain ® 40%

Oct 28 SurveyUSA: Obama (D) 49%, McCain ® 45%

Oct 27 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 49%, McCain ® 45%

Oct 27 Zogby: Obama (D) 50%, McCain ® 45%

Oct 26 Univ. of Akron: Obama (D) 45%, McCain ® 41%

Oct 25 Univ. of Cincinnati: Obama (D) 49%, McCain ® 46%

Oct 24 PPP (D): Obama (D) 51%, McCain ® 44%

Oct 24 Str. Vision ®: McCain ® 48%, Obama (D) 45%


Pennsylvania

Oct 29 Quinnipiac: Obama (D) 53%, McCain ® 41%

Oct 28 Rasmussen: Obama (D) 53%, McCain ® 46%

Oct 28 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain ® 41%

Oct 27 Temple Univ.: Obama (D) 50%, McCain ® 41%

Oct 27 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain ® 40%

Oct 26 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 53%, McCain ® 40%

Oct 25 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain ® 41%

Oct 24 Muhlenberg Tracker: Obama (D) 52%, McCain ® 40%

Oct 24 Str. Vision ®: Obama (D) 50%, McCain ® 43%

[jsmalahy]

What does a McCain presidency bring to the table for you financially exactly? I'm just curious.

As a self loathing gay Republican bottom, my guess is he is sadly misinterpreting the mantra "Drill baby drill."

[flipp525]

That McCain was ahead for a few weeks not long ago shows that not everyone was ready to vote for Barack Obama, and I think that if the economic crisis had not occurred McCain might still be in the lead. However, I think it is foolish for voters to leave everything else behind to vote based on their pocketbooks.

And this coming from someone who, admittedly, lives at or below the poverty line. What does a McCain presidency bring to the table for you financially exactly? I'm just curious.

Oh, and I thought you were going to start working on the verbosity of your posts. They're still too long without saying much, criddic.

[criddic3]

"The latest ABCNews/Washington Post tracking poll indicates that McCain has closed the overall gap with Obama from 11 points to seven points.

Obama's lead over McCain on who would be best at handling the economy has slipped from 18 points to 10 points. Voters now say they trust Obama over McCain, 52 percent to 42 percent, on economic issues, according to the latest ABC/Post tracking poll. Last week Obama's lead on that issue was 56-38. "

Full article:

ABC Polling



Edited By criddic3 on 1225256334

[criddic3]

I've seen several articles and heard several pundits refer to the AP poll, as well as others that show a closer race. I don't think Obama is headed for a landslide. It can happen, yes, but I just don't think so.

Criddic, if the discussion is now at "Will Obama win by a landslide or not?" I'd advise you to maintain some of your dignity and accept McCain's imminent loss. Give it up. If you take comfort that Obama might not win by THAT much, and think of it as some sort of victory, you'll just end up looking foolish. If he wins, he wins. The end. So long as he wins by more than Bush did, I'm fine with that.

I notice you're only talking about voting percentages and not electoral votes. How much would Obama have to win for it to be an electoral landslide? Just wondering.

Denial, no.

Anyone who says "I think the problem is the leftist portion of the media (which is most of the media) are afraid this might be true, that John McCain can still win this election" is either off his thorazine or in denial.

I have no idea if the AP poll is bogus or not, but it doesn't matter. If it isn't bogus, it's an outlier. You know what an outlier is, criddic. It's a poll that's at the extreme end of one result or the other and doesn't look anything like any other poll out there. Taking the single outlier poll as a sign of hope and topping it off with a bizarre conspiracy theory makes you look very weird.

Then again, I suppose hope is only natural to cling to when you have little else. And if the only concrete hope comes in the form of an outlier poll, then go for it. I'm glad you say an Obama win is "possible", but really, there's no excuse for stubbornly refusing to distinguish between the possible and the inevitable.

But I'm pleased to see you're at least not believing that the polls themselves - and the polling companies - are biased against McCain. That's a talking point that's been going around as well, and it's a real leap.

(Um, you're not, are you?)

Barack Obama still poses a challenge for people who are only now beginning to see what his presidency might look like.

Only now???

Let's hear it for the low-information voters! Hooray!

McCain must be very proud that his election victory depends on this very fine demographic.

Sonic, I do appreciate your taking the time to educate me on the fine points of election polling. It is an honor to be included in your save-the-idiots campaign.

There are also outliers that show Obama ahead by 15%. Most of the polls show him with a lead of between 5% and 8%

This is not insurmountable. President Ford was behind by more than that and came up to just 2 behind. With another week, he may have won. Reagan was behind until the debate with Carter in 1980. Gore was behind in the popular vote by a fair margin until the DWI story got out the weekend before the election. With a few more days, Bush probably could have salvaged those votes and prevented the debacle that was the Election Night '00.

What I am saying is not that I deny Obama's lead, but that a few days can turn an election around or change it dramatically. We already see McCain making up some ground in battleground states. It is not inconceivable that, if he regains the right states, he could make it over the 270 needed for an electoral win. At the very least he could stop the projected landslide from happening. The reality is that Senator McCain is running ahead of expectations from early in the election process, which was supposed to mean that the Republican would have been much further behind by this time.

I will not be shocked if McCain loses, because the electorate seems to be in a "change" mood. So that generally means that the Democrat candidate would naturally run better this year, by default. Anyone who says that McCain hasn't been a good campaigner is forgetting the predictions, the jokes, the expectations from months ago that said "so, which Democrat are you voting for?" That McCain was ahead for a few weeks not long ago shows that not everyone was ready to vote for Barack Obama, and I think that if the economic crisis had not occurred McCain might still be in the lead. However, I think it is foolish for voters to leave everything else behind to vote based on their pocketbooks. National Security, social issues and character should matter just as much, if not more. After all, without a safe country, money means nothing.

So I accept that the election is looking like a likely win for Obama, but not that it is inevitable. Nor would I jump ship even if it were. I believe that John McCain is the better candidate.

[Sonic Youth]

I've seen several articles and heard several pundits refer to the AP poll, as well as others that show a closer race. I don't think Obama is headed for a landslide. It can happen, yes, but I just don't think so.

Criddic, if the discussion is now at "Will Obama win by a landslide or not?" I'd advise you to maintain some of your dignity and accept McCain's imminent loss. Give it up. If you take comfort that Obama might not win by THAT much, and think of it as some sort of victory, you'll just end up looking foolish. If he wins, he wins. The end. So long as he wins by more than Bush did, I'm fine with that.

I notice you're only talking about voting percentages and not electoral votes. How much would Obama have to win for it to be an electoral landslide? Just wondering.

Denial, no.

Anyone who says "I think the problem is the leftist portion of the media (which is most of the media) are afraid this might be true, that John McCain can still win this election" is either off his thorazine or in denial.

I have no idea if the AP poll is bogus or not, but it doesn't matter. If it isn't bogus, it's an outlier. You know what an outlier is, criddic. It's a poll that's at the extreme end of one result or the other and doesn't look anything like any other poll out there. Taking the single outlier poll as a sign of hope and topping it off with a bizarre conspiracy theory makes you look very weird.

Then again, I suppose hope is only natural to cling to when you have little else. And if the only concrete hope comes in the form of an outlier poll, then go for it. I'm glad you say an Obama win is "possible", but really, there's no excuse for stubbornly refusing to distinguish between the possible and the inevitable.

But I'm pleased to see you're at least not believing that the polls themselves - and the polling companies - are biased against McCain. That's a talking point that's been going around as well, and it's a real leap.

(Um, you're not, are you?)

Barack Obama still poses a challenge for people who are only now beginning to see what his presidency might look like.

Only now???

Let's hear it for the low-information voters! Hooray!

McCain must be very proud that his election victory depends on this very fine demographic.



Edited By Sonic Youth on 1224987922

[Damien]

From Newsweek:

With less than two weeks left in the presidential contest, Barack Obama continues to hold a commanding double-digit lead over John McCain according to the latest NEWSWEEK Poll. Among registered voters nationwide, Obama now leads McCain by 13 points, 53 percent to 40 percent. Among likely voters, Obama's lead is similarly strong, 53 percent to 41 percent.

Obama's lead in the NEWSWEEK Poll is consistent with other recent national polls, including soundings taken by CBS News and The New York Times, The Washington Post and ABC News, NBC News and The Wall Street Journal and by Pew Research, all of which measured Obama's lead over McCain as somewhere between 10 and 14 points. In the NEWSWEEK Poll, Obama's lead stayed virtually unchanged from two weeks ago, when he led McCain 52 to 41 among registered voters.

The new poll suggests Obama is consolidating his support across demographic groups. He now leads McCain in every age group, even among voters 65 and older, who choose him over McCain 48 percent to 42 percent. He leads handily among men, 52 percent to 42 percent, and among women, 54 percent to 39 percent. He now leads McCain by 46 percent to 44 percent among working class whites, a dramatic reversal from April, when McCain led him in that group 53 percent to 35 percent.

[barrybrooks8]

SUPER SMUG!!! I hate people like this! My mom is super duper religious but she would never treat someone like that, so sure of themselves, so "I'm right and you're wrong and thank goodness I'm smart enough to know everything and I'll pray for you."
I'm calling it now...the election is going to be close.

[flipp525]

That smug bitch is not a real Christian. If Jesus showed up at her front door, she'd think he was a terrorist and tell her husband to shoot him.

How many ignorant people like that are there in this country?

A ton, unfortunately. Several of them live in Tennessee and are members of my family, too, which makes Christmas interesting. My dad's identical twin brother spouts off similar garbage at the dinner table and I've had to restrain myself from punching him in the face.



Edited By flipp525 on 1224942136

[Damien]

I've seen several articles and heard several pundits refer to the AP poll

Well of course you have, because this bogus poll is the only thing the "pundits" you listen to can reference with a positive spin.

By the way, new NY Times/CBS poll released today; Obama 52 McCain 39.

[Big Magilla]

That smug bitch is not a real Christian. If Jesus showed up at her front door, she'd think he was a terrorist and tell her husband to shoot him.

How many ignorant people like that are there in this country?

[criddic3]

I have never called Obama a Muslim. I have never said I was afraid of him personally. I have said that I find him likable. And I have said that I disagree with his approach to policy. I think his economic policies lean toward socialism, and that his foreign policy leans toward pacifism. That does worry me. Mr. Obama has been highly successful in a very short period of time. He has many good qualities. I'm not voting for him, because he isn't ready to be President, and his ideas are all wrong in my view.

Not that President Bush has been great in his second term. In several areas, he allowed his party to overrun him. I don't know why he allowed that to happen. He was superb in his first four years, and occassionally shined in his second term, but overall he has had a disappointing few years. But that is the past. Whoever wins this election will not be George Bush.

Neither my mother or I would explain our votes the way the lady in the video did. She certainly has a right to her opinion. Certainly moral issues matter, but to mangle those issues in the fashion that this woman did by misrepresenting what matters about Obama is not our way.