Box Office Predix - What will be the blockbusters of 08?

[MovieWes]

Okay, I am sorry. I just hate Miley Cyrus. I wasn't aware, however, that it was a hate word on par with those other words. I just thought it was a harsher version of the words bitch, slut, or whore. It wasn't my intent to be offensive (at least not offensive in that way).



Edited By MovieWes on 1225137963

[flipp525]

that is the most horribly misogynistic word a person can use. please moviewes, i know we use angry language sometimes, but that one is a hate word (for women) on par with the f-word (for gays) and n-word (for blacks).

Not exclusively. I've met more than my fair share of male cunts.

[rolotomasi99]

I pray that you're right. I hate that stupid Miley Cyrus cunt.

hey, no c-word!

that is the most horribly misogynistic word a person can use. please moviewes, i know we use angry language sometimes, but that one is a hate word (for women) on par with the f-word (for gays) and n-word (for blacks).

[MovieWes]

I pray that you're right. I hate that stupid Miley Cyrus bitch.



Edited By MovieWes on 1225141213

[OscarGuy]

But, MovieWes, you have to take into account a reduction in ticket prices. The Hannah Montana concert made so much money because the tickets were 3 times higher than normal admissions. I also get this vibe that the Hannah Montana fad is starting to fade...

[MovieWes]

I'm truly surprised by the numbers for High School Musical 3. It had a big opening day; I wonder what happened on Saturday and Sunday. Kudos, Rolotomasi, on your prediction. You were only $3 million off. I'm going to lower my prediction to $150 million. It will probably make more than Mama Mia!, but with an opening weekend in the low 40's, I don't see it making that much more.

I wonder how the Hannah Montana movie is going to do next year. If the concert movie is good for $60 million +, the movie should do at least $100 million. Truly sickening.

[OscarGuy]

Horror sells these days. And Hostel wasn't that big a box office sensation, making most of its money on DVD...so, Hostel 2, of course, bombed.

But, I thought I was reading that this was the end of Jigsaw in the film. I don't know if that's true as it certainly hasn't applied to other horror villains, but I had thought this was the last installment anyway. And, FWIW, the first two Saw films are actually quite good and while they are bloody films, there is an inventiveness and a psychological torture element that a lot of horror films these days don't have. It could partially explain the love of this series.

[rolotomasi99]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) - $55M, $15,181 PTA, $55M cume
2. NEW – Saw V (Lionsgate) - $29M, $9,477 PTA, $29M cume
3. Max Payne (Fox) - $7.6M, $2,248 PTA, $29.66M cume
4. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) - $7.3M, $2,288 PTA, $78.52M cume
5. NEW - Pride and Glory (Warner Bros) - $6.3M, $2,437 PTA, $6.3M cume

It looks like I won't be too far off in my prediction for HSM3. But you weren't too far off either Rolo. It'll be about halfway between both of our predictions, which is somewhere between $55-60 million. However, I would like to retract my statement about Saw V having a huge drop next weekend. I just realized that next Friday is Halloween, so it should have a nice hold. But it will fall HARD weekend after next. I guess $70 million is still in play for Saw V.

hmmm. exclusive fantasy moguls seems to have overshot with their estimates for HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3. even i overestimated. according to box office mojo, the film only made $42 million. of course, that is the biggest opening for a musical and is 4 times the budget, so certainly nothing to be embarrassed about. i think the disney execs, though, were expecting more. parents have no problem letting the kids watch the previous two installments on t.v. while they did other things around the house, but were probably less than enthusiastic to take the little brats to watch it in the theatre.

as for SAW V...ugh. i was really hoping for this damn genre to die. all other horror films had been showing diminishing returns (HOSTEL 2, THE TEXAS CHAINSAW MASSACRE BEGINNING, HALLOWEEN), but i guess the SAW franchise is immune.

among smaller films, CHANGELING, despite horrible reviews made roughly $33 thousand per screen (three times as much as the number 1 film). also encouraging was gay film NOAH'S ARC making $32 thousand per screen. very nice to see.

[MovieWes]

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) - $16.5M, $4,554 PTA, $16.5M cume
2. NEW – Saw V (Lionsgate) - $12.3M, $4,020 PTA, $12.3M cume
3. Max Payne (Fox) - $2.6M, $769 PTA, $24.66M cume
4. NEW - Pride and Glory (Warner Bros) - $2.2M, $851 PTA, $2.2M cume
5. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) - $1.9M, $596 PTA, $73.18M cume
6. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) - $1.83M, $1,123 PTA, $15.1M cume
7. W. (Lionsgate) - $1.79M, $873 PTA, $15.2M cume
8. Eagle Eye (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.7M, $665 PTA, $84.55M cume
9. Body of Lies (Warner Bros) - $1.38M, $643 PTA, $28.2M cume
10. Quarantine (Sony) - $1.05M, $471 PTA, $27.27M cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Disney) - $55M, $15,181 PTA, $55M cume
2. NEW – Saw V (Lionsgate) - $29M, $9,477 PTA, $29M cume
3. Max Payne (Fox) - $7.6M, $2,248 PTA, $29.66M cume
4. Beverly Hills Chihuahua (Disney) - $7.3M, $2,288 PTA, $78.52M cume
5. NEW - Pride and Glory (Warner Bros) - $6.3M, $2,437 PTA, $6.3M cume
6. Eagle Eye (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $5.7M, $2,228 PTA, $88.55M cume
7. The Secret Life of Bees (Fox Searchlight) - $5.6M, $3,436 PTA, $18.87M cume
8. W. (Lionsgate) - $5.54M, $2,707 PTA, $18.96M cume
9. Body of Lies (Warner Bros) - $4.35M, $2,026 PTA, $31.17M cume
10. Quarantine (Sony) - $3.25M, $1,461 PTA, $29.47M cume

It looks like I won't be too far off in my prediction for HSM3. But you weren't too far off either Rolo. It'll be about halfway between both of our predictions, which is somewhere between $55-60 million. However, I would like to retract my statement about Saw V having a huge drop next weekend. I just realized that next Friday is Halloween, so it should have a nice hold. But it will fall HARD weekend after next. I guess $70 million is still in play for Saw V.



Edited By MovieWes on 1224961472

[OscarGuy]

It's largely because Hollywood needs things they can bank on these days. With effects-laden films being one sector of the population, remakes are another. Firstly, they are generally cheaper to make and secondly, people will go to see them in droves even if they are a colossally bad idea and the remakes are pale comparisons. But, I think another big part of this issue is that a lot of modern audiences turn their noses up to anything "Old". The younger audiences want hipper, fresher, more visceral thrills. In its day, A Nightmare on Elm Street was the pinnacle of horror violence. With the buckets of blood shooting up from Johnny Depp's bed, it was clear there was a new call for more gory adventures considering Elm Street's box office success.

Audiences, however, looking back at the original Freddy, Fridays and Halloweens, see a notable lack of violence, less blood shed. I wouldn't say our society is getting more blood thirsty, but as objection to the gory violence in horror films diminishes, remaking them is a way to add in the elements that are desirable while making a quick buck in the meantime. And it's not just horror films that are reaping the benefits of remakes, though they seem to be at the forefront. Hollywood is out of ideas and why pay screenwriters money to create new ideas when most of them already have existing properties they can pay less to reboot and thus make more money from a hungry public.

[rolotomasi99]

I think that High School Musical 3 is going to come in first at around $65 million on its way to $170-80 million. It's definitely not going to make just $45 million this weekend, especially when you consider that the HSM franchise is a billion dollar franchise for Disney, a figure that doesn't just include the first two films, but also figures in toys, t-shirts, lunchboxes, CDs, and other merchandise.

$65 million! really? i guess that is completely possible. i have not seen either of the t.v. movies and have no plans to see the theatrical edition. i think zach efron has a nice body, but his face looks like it is made out of wax. what the heck do straight tween girls and gay tween boys see in him? do straight tween boys like these movies?

i was hoping this SAW movie would fail like the second HOSTEL did. probably no such luck.

what the hell is wrong with hollywood? i know remakes have always existed, but it seems the first decade of the new millenium has seen an absurd amount of remakes and t.v.-to-film adaptations. they have already done remakes of THE TEXAS CHAINSAW MASSACRE, DAWN OF THE DEAD, THE INVASION OF THE BODY SNATCHERS, HALLOWEEN, FRIDAY THE 13TH, THE DAY THE EARTH STOOD STILL and countless other lesser horror films, plus the upcoming remakes of NIGHTMARE ON ELM ST, THE BIRDS, HELLRAISER, and probably a few we have not yet heard of.

hollywood has never had a surplus of originality, but things seem to be getting pretty bad and pretty desperate.



Edited By rolotomasi99 on 1224874733

[MovieWes]

I think that High School Musical 3 is going to come in first at around $65 million on its way to $170-80 million. It's definitely not going to make just $45 million this weekend, especially when you consider that the HSM franchise is a billion dollar franchise for Disney, a figure that doesn't just include the first two films, but also figures in toys, t-shirts, lunchboxes, CDs, and other merchandise (and was also one of the primary reasons why they decided to release it in theaters instead of on the Disney channel and DVD).

Then Saw V with between $30-35 million (like the last two). It'll have a big drop-off next weekend (like the last one) and will finish its run between $55-60 million. I think that Saw II and Saw III were probably the peaks of the franchise, and now people are going into fatigue. This won't be the end of the franchise, though. It will probably end with Saw X and then get remade/re-booted. Possibly we'll also see something like Saw vs. Hostel or something to that effect. Don't think so? Just look at the Nightmare on Elm Street, Friday the 13th, Halloween, and Texas Chainsaw Massacre franchises. The law of diminishing returns didn't seem to stop them from churning out sequels, cross-overs, or remakes. In fact, all of them have been (or are in the process of being) remade. I disagree that anything under $50 million will see the end of the franchise. It would take something like a final worldwide gross of under $30 million to kill the franchise, but that won't happen, at least not for quite some time. Just as New Line was "the house that Freddy built," Lionsgate is "the house that Jigsaw built." These films are right now the lifeblood of the studio and I don't see them pulling the plug anytime soon.

I have no idea what Pride and Glory is going to do. It will probably open to no less than $5 million, but it could go as high as $13 million. If it opens between $5-7 million, it probably struggle to make $20 million. If it opens between $10-13 million, it will go no lower than $25 million but could possibly go as high as $45 million. It's a tough one to predict. I mean, if a quality film like Gone Baby Gone has to struggle to get past $20 million while a horribly reviewed movie like Righteous Kill makes $45 million, who knows? If I had to make a prediction, I'd say $10 million opening, $30-35 million closing, but I honestly have no clue.



Edited By MovieWes on 1224873081

[rolotomasi99]

enough of this debate over the intelligence of american audiences, who do you think will win the boxoffice this weekend moviewes?

i guess it actually is an extension of the debate about audience intelligence.

while i have no desire to see HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3, i desperately want to see the end of torture porn. horror movies will always be around, and the genre itself has given us many brilliant films; but these torture porn movies are sick and twisted, not scary. due to its extremely low budget, there is no way SAW 5 (i think that is the number we are on) could be considered a flop; but if it makes less than $50 million, it could definitately be seen as a dying franchise.

i am guessing (and hoping) HIGH SCHOOL MUSICAL 3 will be at the top of the box office with about $45 million. SAW 5 will be second with about $20 million. PRIDE AND GLORY might make $7 million.

[rolotomasi99]

Now, Revolutionary Road will never come close to accomplishing such a feat, but do you really think that it's impossible for even a tenth of the people who bought (and bought...and bought...and bought) tickets to Titanic to come out and see Revolutionary Road just for the pleasure of seeing Kate and Leo together on the big screen again?

if REVOLUTIONARY ROAD were an adaptation of a nicholas sparks novel than yes, yes, yes, yes! however, it is an adaptation of a richard yates novel. i think many people will think this movie is like THE NOTEBOOK, which is why it will make around $15-20 million on its opening weekend (assuming it is given a wide release opening). people are not going to read many of the reviews or know much about the film except it stars kate and leo. they are going to sit in thier seats and just squirm. they are going to see two hours of screaming and crying and not much romance or humor. they are going to leave the theatres mad and confused. those of us who know what to expect will (hopefully) enjoy it, and we will recommend it to our friends who like quality films which challenge us. everyone else, especially the kate and leo fans, are going to trash the film.

your own argument makes a good point. the films of leo's which have made more than $100 million are the more stereotypically entertaining ones (though still well made), while the ones which have made under $100 million have been the more challenging ones (though not necessarily better).

if you had to label REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, would you call it stereotypically entertaining (romantic, funny, action packed) or more challenging (no easy answers or happy endings, pulls no punches emotionally)? based on the trailer, the source material, and the few synopses i have read, REVOLUTIONARY ROAD is the antithesis of a nicholas sparks novel. it was actually a brilliant move by mendes. what better way to illustrate the rise and fall of young, idealistic newlyweds than by casting the romantic couple from the most famous movie ever.

no one would be happier than me to be wrong about american audiences. i would love to see a (potentially) great and intelligent film make more than a $100 million. however, when one of the most brilliant tv shows ever made, MAD MEN, can only pull in less than 10% of the audience for dreck like CSI,
i have to wonder why people in this country are so stupid.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008....74.html

[MovieWes]

Yeah, I know that My Big Fat Greek Wedding, The Blair Witch Project, and Fahrenheit 9/11 aren't art-house films (and I also know the difference between indie and art-house), but I was trying to mix them up. I probably shouldn't have used them as examples, but they were surprise hits. My Big Fat Greek Wedding was one of the best examples of how word-of-mouth can bolster a film's box-office performance, The Blair Witch Project was one of the first films to use the Internet to launch a marketing campaign, and Fahrenheit 9/11 was a topical documentary released during an election year from perhaps the highest profile documentary filmmaker/satirist in the world.

Here's the thing about Revolutionary Road, though. You say that Leonardo DiCaprio can't pack audiences in, and you're right to a certain extent. He can't really do it on his steam alone. He needs someone else (like Martin Scorsese or Steven Spielberg or Kate Winslet) to spark interest in audiences. However, by himself, he's no slouch. After Titanic, his films took on a different box-office pattern than those prior. Right after Titanic came out, his next movie, The Man in the Iron Mask, grossed $57 million on his box-office power alone. It should be noted that prior to Titanic, his films struggled just to make it past $10 million, the only exception being William Shakespeare's Romeo + Juliet, which grossed $46 million in 1996. In 2000, he came out with The Beach, which was a film that had a really big build-up, but tanked at just under $40 million following horrible reviews and poisonous word-of-mouth. However, his next four films (Gangs of New York, Catch Me If You Can, The Aviator, and The Departed) were well received by the critics, picked up some Oscar nominations and, in some cases, Oscar wins, and all grossed over $100 million each (with the exception of "Gangs," which grossed $77 million). He earned a Best Actor nomination for Blood Diamond, a film which grossed just $57 million in theaters, but performed exceptionally well overseas and has been very successful on DVD. And I think that it should be noted that Body of Lies is actually his first true failure since The Beach, and it probably has more to do with Ridley Scott's direction than it does with Leonardo DiCaprio. Also, I think that it's worth pointing out that whenever Leonardo DiCaprio has two films released in one year, one of them grosses over $100 million. Only once was the $100 million film not a Best Picture nominee (Catch Me If You Can), so if Revolutionary Road is nominated for Best Picture (which I think it will), I believe that it will gross $130 million.

I've always believed that one of the keys to Titanic's success was the on-screen chemistry between Kate and Leo, and I am probably not alone in this assumption. I mean, yeah, there was probably more to it than that -- it was really more like a perfect storm of events, actually -- but there were quite a lot of people who responded to the two of them together in a big way and have been waiting for them to reunite for another movie. Adjusted for inflation, Titanic would've grossed $908 million and currently ranks #6 of all-time (more to the point, it sold 123,718,500 tickets). Now, Revolutionary Road will never come close to accomplishing such a feat, but do you really think that it's impossible for even a tenth of the people who bought (and bought...and bought...and bought) tickets to Titanic to come out and see Revolutionary Road just for the pleasure of seeing Kate and Leo together on the big screen again?



Edited By MovieWes on 1224779316