Odd-Man-Out - which director w/o b.p. will be nom'd?
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rolotomasi99
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you all are right. both BOBBY and LITTLE CHILDREN seem more like films that could be nominated for best picture on the strength of their actors and script, and then have their directors ignored. the same with LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE. i am still not convinced with THE QUEEN. VERA DRAKE was nominated for actress, director, and screenpaly, and that is exactly what i see THE QUEEN doing. i am still not convinced that RETURN (VOLVER) is going to be the second coming for the director that everyone is predicting. it is kind of like MATCH POINT. early reports had it that the director was back in rare form, but later most found it not to be up to the standards of the auteur's previous films. in the end it had to settle for just a screenplay nom, as i predict RETURN (VOLVER) is going to have to do as well. thanks for everyone's input so far.
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I think Little Miss Sunshine will score a Best Picture nomination, but the two directors will be snubbed in favor of Almodovar.
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Big Magilla
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Interesting analysis, but I agree with BJ on both his points. The Queen is a very strong contender for Best Picture. Both the film and Frears are likely nominees. I don;t know about Bobby. Even if it is nominated for Best Picture, Emilio could be left standing in teh cold. He has about as much respect among directors as Barbra Streisand and we know how many times she's been ignored by them.
I see the likely Best Pictures nominees as Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Flags of Our Fathers and The Queen with Little Children a possible upset nominee. It's difficult to imagine the directors of any of these films being displaced by someone else. If one is, I think Aldomovar is the only likely fill-in candidate.
I see the likely Best Pictures nominees as Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls, Flags of Our Fathers and The Queen with Little Children a possible upset nominee. It's difficult to imagine the directors of any of these films being displaced by someone else. If one is, I think Aldomovar is the only likely fill-in candidate.
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The Original BJ
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Well, you seem to have thought this out a lot more than I have at this point, but I have two hunches.
The first is that, to me, The Queen is a pretty good bet for a Best Picture nomination. I know Frears has been the odd-man-out before, but he really doesn't fit its characteristics too well. His direction is not singular enough to ride on his own coattails (a la Mike Leigh), plus, I think there will be a lot of good will toward The Queen from older voters. It will be a film people ENJOY and don't just admire, the latter applying to many films (including Vera Drake) that stop at a Best Director slot.
The second is that I cannot imagine Emilio Estevez being an odd-man out director nominee. Either he and his film are loved enough to make the top slots, or they're not. (Although I could see a situation where Bobby is a Best Pic nominee, but Estevez is snubbed.) I just don't think directors are going to go out of their way to cast votes for Estevez unless his film has across-the-board support.
The first is that, to me, The Queen is a pretty good bet for a Best Picture nomination. I know Frears has been the odd-man-out before, but he really doesn't fit its characteristics too well. His direction is not singular enough to ride on his own coattails (a la Mike Leigh), plus, I think there will be a lot of good will toward The Queen from older voters. It will be a film people ENJOY and don't just admire, the latter applying to many films (including Vera Drake) that stop at a Best Director slot.
The second is that I cannot imagine Emilio Estevez being an odd-man out director nominee. Either he and his film are loved enough to make the top slots, or they're not. (Although I could see a situation where Bobby is a Best Pic nominee, but Estevez is snubbed.) I just don't think directors are going to go out of their way to cast votes for Estevez unless his film has across-the-board support.
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rolotomasi99
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i love predicting who will be the odd-man-out director more than almost any other category. i know last year we had a five-for-five line-up, with the directors matching the best picture noms perfectly; but that only happens every two decades or so. i think we will be back to our usual one director getting the shaft even though his film was nominated for best picture, and you have him replaced by some director who usually has directed the best film of the year but it is too artsy or independent to be nominated for the top prize.
this year i think the best candidates to be nominated for the odd-man-out director category are:
BABEL
THE QUEEN
RETURN (VOLVER)
UNITED 93
BOBBY
LITTLE CHILDREN
the first three are the ones i am most sure of. first i want to say that i think BABEL is going to emerge as the best film of the year, and early reviews are already hinting at that. however, like 21 GRAMS i think its narrative style and gritty focus is going to keep it from ever getting even close to a best picture nomination. that is what is makes it perfect for the odd-man-out nomination. the director's branch will still be impressed and want to reward it.
THE QUEEN is another one i am not convinced will make it the big five, but like VERA DRAKE before it will score a nom for its director. RETURN, UNITED 93, BOBBY also all seem like films that just cannot be nominated for the film itself, but can enjoy a mention for their director. LITTLE CHILDREN is a tricky one since i actually think it could be nominated for best picture, but if it is not you can expect to see it here.
the next thing you have to do though is figure out which film is going to get left out. often it is a film that is frivolous and lacking the depth to have the director's branch take it seriously (MOULIN ROUGE, CHOCOLAT, JERRY MAGUIRE). other times it is a film where the director's branch just does not like the director for some reason (THE SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION, IN THE BEDROOM, ELIZABETH).
in the frivolous area i can totally see DREAMGIRLS filling that spot. the film looks amazing and i do think it is the frontrunner for best picture, but not since DRIVING MISS DAISY has their been such a chance of a film winning best picture without being nominated for director. i could also see WORLD TRADE CENTER being a loser in the director category (although i hope it is a loser in all but the sound and fx categories).
in terms of a director just no being loved, i would think THE GOOD SHEPHERD being admired enough to be nominated for best picture but not enough for a director nom. the same goes for LITTLE CHILDREN. yes, i know i just said it might get the odd-man-out nom, but i cannot be sure with that one...it could go either way.
some films just will not be nominated for best pic without their directors being nominated. either MUNICH and BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN were going to be nominated in both categories or they were not going to be nominated at all. the same can be said for THE DEPARTED and FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS. no way they will be nominated for picture but not director, or the other way around. THE GOOD GERMAN seems like another one that will get both or get neither.
that being said i think the best picture line-up will look like this:
THE DEPARTED
DREAMGIRLS
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
THE GOOD GERMAN
LITTLE CHILDREN
while the director line-up will look like this:
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
THE GOOD GERMAN
LITTLE CHILDREN
what do other people think?
this year i think the best candidates to be nominated for the odd-man-out director category are:
BABEL
THE QUEEN
RETURN (VOLVER)
UNITED 93
BOBBY
LITTLE CHILDREN
the first three are the ones i am most sure of. first i want to say that i think BABEL is going to emerge as the best film of the year, and early reviews are already hinting at that. however, like 21 GRAMS i think its narrative style and gritty focus is going to keep it from ever getting even close to a best picture nomination. that is what is makes it perfect for the odd-man-out nomination. the director's branch will still be impressed and want to reward it.
THE QUEEN is another one i am not convinced will make it the big five, but like VERA DRAKE before it will score a nom for its director. RETURN, UNITED 93, BOBBY also all seem like films that just cannot be nominated for the film itself, but can enjoy a mention for their director. LITTLE CHILDREN is a tricky one since i actually think it could be nominated for best picture, but if it is not you can expect to see it here.
the next thing you have to do though is figure out which film is going to get left out. often it is a film that is frivolous and lacking the depth to have the director's branch take it seriously (MOULIN ROUGE, CHOCOLAT, JERRY MAGUIRE). other times it is a film where the director's branch just does not like the director for some reason (THE SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION, IN THE BEDROOM, ELIZABETH).
in the frivolous area i can totally see DREAMGIRLS filling that spot. the film looks amazing and i do think it is the frontrunner for best picture, but not since DRIVING MISS DAISY has their been such a chance of a film winning best picture without being nominated for director. i could also see WORLD TRADE CENTER being a loser in the director category (although i hope it is a loser in all but the sound and fx categories).
in terms of a director just no being loved, i would think THE GOOD SHEPHERD being admired enough to be nominated for best picture but not enough for a director nom. the same goes for LITTLE CHILDREN. yes, i know i just said it might get the odd-man-out nom, but i cannot be sure with that one...it could go either way.
some films just will not be nominated for best pic without their directors being nominated. either MUNICH and BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN were going to be nominated in both categories or they were not going to be nominated at all. the same can be said for THE DEPARTED and FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS. no way they will be nominated for picture but not director, or the other way around. THE GOOD GERMAN seems like another one that will get both or get neither.
that being said i think the best picture line-up will look like this:
THE DEPARTED
DREAMGIRLS
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
THE GOOD GERMAN
LITTLE CHILDREN
while the director line-up will look like this:
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
THE GOOD GERMAN
LITTLE CHILDREN
what do other people think?
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow