Fall Predicitons

[Big Magilla]

The thing about last year was that before Seymour started monopolizing year-end awards there were thought to be four equally strong contenders, Heath Ledger, Joaquin Phoenix and David Strathairn as well as Seymour, with Terrence Howard, Jeff Daniels and Ralph Fiennes vying for the fifth slot. Joseph Gordon-Levitt was way down on the radar behind even Cillian Murphy in Breakfast on Pluto.

In 2000, when Christan Bale was shut out, there was no clear favorite. Even such lauded performances of those of MIchael Douglas in Wonder Boys and Jamie Bell in Billy Elliot were shut out.

What helps Gosling this year is that there are only two other male performances generating much talk - O'Toole and Whitaker. The names we keep throwing up here (Toby Jones, Richard Griffiths, Patrick Wilson) seem to be getting shrugs from the critics. With such lack of enthusiasm for such awards baiting roles, Gosling could well emerge as the hottest young nominee since Edward Norton in American X, though I think a win would be a stretch.

[Damien]

Haven't seen the picture but

I like Gosling fine. Terrific young actor. But Half Nelson hasn't shown any crossover appeal yet (a la Little Miss Sunshine), so he's gonna need mucho support from the critics (such as the odious Hoffman had last year) to get the attention of Academy voters. I think it's more likely he'll go the way of Joseph Gordon-Leavitt in Mysterious Skin and Christian Bale in American Psycho -- highly lauded performances that the critics forgot at awards time, making it easu for the Academy to ignore them as well.

[The Original BJ]

Oh, I have no doubt Gosling will be a contender for critics' awards, especially with the reviews he's gotten.

But I still think Oscar will be an uphill battle.

And I, too, didn't realize he was doing any acting for much of the film. Maybe because he's not.

I like Gosling just fine, and think he's fine in the role, but I remain baffled at what all the fuss is about with this performance.

[danfrank]

I thought Gosling was amazing in Half Nelson. He's a natural, charismatic actor. You don't realize that he's doing any acting for much of the film--something that's hard to pull off in a role where his character is high or hung over the whole time. I hope more people check out this film. The only other film I saw Gosling in was The Believer. After seeing it I remember thinking that I need to pay attention to this guy's career. After seeing Half Nelson, I'm convinced he's the real deal.

[Big Magilla]

Flipp, have you seen Half Nelson?

Aside from the drug addict hook, Ryan Gosling's performance is not the type to make Oscar's shortlist. I have a feeling he will end up a lot like Vera Farmiga (in a similar-type performance and film) in last year's Down to the Bone: critics will bite, but Oscar stays far away.

Gosling doesn't even really have any BIG scenes like Farmiga did.

According to that other Oscar website, Ryan Gosling is in a three way race with Forest Whitaker and Peter O'Toole for the NYFC Award (De. 11th). Why critics would making up their minds this early I can't fathom, but should Gosling prevail or even place 2nd or 3rd at major critics' awards he becomes a strong contender for this critically well recived film which I haven't seen.

[Big Magilla]

OK. I didn't realize you had actually seen the film until I red your review in the Films of 2006 thread.

[Sabin]

Magilla...trust me.

[Big Magilla]

Not having seen the trailer for The Blood Diamond, I think the accents, including Sean Penn's, as seen in the trailer for the remake of All the King's Men are the worst this year made all the more embarassing for the actors by splashing "Academy Award Winner" or "Academy Award Nominee" across the screen over their names.

The funny thing about accents, though, is that while they may seem odd in a trailer they can grow on you over the course of a two hour film. What's to say that Jeffrey Wells won't find Leo's perfomance in The Blood Diamond even better than his performance in The Departed?

[Sabin]

It is. And DiCaprio's accent is a disaster.

[Penelope]

Hmm, I don't know about Damon, but I think DiCaprio would be a more likely nominee for The Departed than Blood Diamond--first, a brief glance at early reviews singles DiCaprio out for acclaim (Jeff Wells says it's his best work since Gilbert Grape), and, second, the trailer for Blood Diamond reveals DiCaprio acting with what appears to be a dubious Afrikaan accent (and the movie looks like crap).

[Big Magilla]

The Departed is a remake of the recent Hong Kong masterpiece, Infernal Affairs, but with a different script. Comparison reviews I've read say the ending is not as good. Nevertheless with the high powered pairing of Leonardo DiCaprio as the cop who infiltrates the mob and Matt Damon as the mole in the police department, supported by Mark Wahlberg, Martin Sheen and Jack Nicholson playing nasty mean, it can't help but be a box office phenomenon. Its Oscar chances, though, are somewhat clouded.

Scorsese has been considered "due" for so long now I think his fellow directors would be embarassed to nominate him unless he has a really good shot at winning. DiCaprio and Damon, as good as they may be, have The Blood Diamond and The Good Shepherd, respectively, for which their apparently more nuanced characters would seem more Oscar friendly. Only sly old Jack has garnered much Oscar buzz so far, but it's still early in the game so we sall see.

[Hustler]

And I agree, The Departed looks like derivative of many other movies, or of those countless TV cop shows that have been seemingly multiplying ever since Hill Street Blues.

I´ve read that The Departed is a remake and its chances to be considered are complicated. Don´t you agree?

[rudeboy]

I may be wrong, but I seem to remember the early reviews that trickled out for The Aviator being all raves too. And I agree, The Departed looks like derivative of many other movies, or of those countless TV cop shows that have been seemingly multiplying ever since Hill Street Blues.

I wish they'd given him the oscar for The Last Temptation of Christ - my favourite of his films by quite some way - so this issue wouldn't recur year in, year out.

[Penelope]

So far, all the early reviews for The Departed have been raves, but I wonder if all those early reviews come from Scorsese partisans (not being a huge fan of his work, I've not followed who worships the fellow). Personally, The Departed looks like every other police/gangster movie we've seen in the past 35 years. Whatever....

[OscarGuy]

Eragon I see as having two potential outcomes:

Building on the success of its youthful author and becoming a big box office success like Chronicles of Narnia or a horrendous dud like Dragonheart.

Either path netted the film associated with an Oscar nomination for Visual Effects, so with the fantasy bent and any manner of strong critical acclaim or hefty box office may vaunt it into the VFX category. We'll have to see how it performs first.