New Developments III

[Greg]

Trump is unable to make the almost half-billion-dollar bond necessary to appeal his New York civil fraud verdict. It appears the New York AG will start seizing Trump's property in about a week.

[Big Magilla]

Semantics.

I can't read the article which requires a subscription to Fox News which I have no intention of doing, but the six dismissed charges are as good as gone. Refiling the violation of oath charges with reference to the specific oaths that were broken would take time and delay the trial even further.

[taki15]

Meanwhile Goergia judge just threw out the infamous phone call and five other charges in that case.

Trump is going to get away with everything outside of New York, isn't he?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/judge- ... rence-case

He didn't threw it away. He dismissed some of the charges as too vague and invited the prosecution to refile them in a more specific way.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Meanwhile Georgia judge just threw out the infamous phone call and five other charges in that case.

Trump is going to get away with everything outside of New York, isn't he?

Yes.

[Big Magilla]

Meanwhile Goergia judge just threw out the infamous phone call and five other charges in that case.

Trump is going to get away with everything outside of New York, isn't he?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/judge- ... rence-case

[Sabin]

Greg wrote
The Republican margin in the House is going to drop to 218-213 as Colorado Representative Ken Buck will resign by the end of the week.

So three more resignations and Jeffries is Speaker. Do I dare to dream?

[Greg]

The Republican margin in the House is going to drop to 218-213 as Colorado Representative Ken Buck will resign by the end of the week.

[Sabin]

Trump suggests he’s open to cuts to Medicare and Social Security after attacking primary rivals over the issue.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/11/politics ... index.html

“There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements,”

Honestly, if the Democrats can't win against a guy who does nothing but cut ads for them, I don't know.

[Sabin]

gunnar wrote
Maybe Gavin Newsome or another Democratic Governor.

Newsome's been clearly running some kind of shadow campaign as Biden-Harris' loudest surrogates in the media circuit. I have no idea what happens if Biden decides not to run a the convention or something and leaves it up to power brokers, but I have to imagine Newsome would be seen by many as the most palatable choice. He's about to face another stupid pointless recall though.

That's nomination contest... lack of incumbency...

[Big Magilla]

If Biden resigns or dies in office before the convention in July, Harris is automatically president and the presumed 2024 candidate. If he drops out of the race before the convention and frees his delegates to vote their conscience, it will be a free-for-all with, as gunnar says, Newsome or one of the other popular governors, likely Wittmer (Michigan), Pritzker (Illinois) or possibly Beshear (Kentucky) emerging as the candidate. If he resigns or dies in office after the convention, but before the election, the party can replace him on the ballot if there is enough time. If his name remains on the ballot he can still be elected, but his vice president-elect will be sworn in as president. If he resigns or dies after the election, the same thing apples.

[gunnar]

Maybe Gavin Newsome or another Democratic Governor.

[mlrg]

If Biden wasn’t around who would be the candidate from the Democratic Party? Kamala Harris looks like an absolute non entity…

[Big Magilla]

Apparently, Barbara Lee's district is safe for Dems, but Katie Porter's is a swing district so it could be a problem.

The strategists aren't too worried about the "uncommitted" protest votes against Biden over Gaza. They expect the majority of those folks to vote for him in the general - they aren't going to vote for Trump, and they know staying home would be a vote for Trump.

The 2024 vote should mirror the 1964 election when Johnson trounced Goldwater, but somehow the world has gotten dumber since then, not smarter.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
FYI, Katie Porter had to give up her House seat to run for Senate, as did Barbara Lee. I did the same as you, deciding last minute to vote for Porter to have a better chance at an all-Dem slate in the general. I was surprised how poorly the two women did. No surprise that the GOP voters consolidated around Garvey. My guess is that the Dems consolidated around Schiff because they saw a winner. Schiff ran a smart race by highlighting Garvey.

What? Oh, that's fucking stupid. I didn't know that.

I saw about that campaign Garvey ran, "boosting" him. I think it's super danger to do what Schiff and Democrats do when they boost the dangerous right-winger... except every time they do it, it turns out in their favor.

Nikki Haley has withdrawn. She has 89 delegates which puts her above Elizabeth Warren's 79th for second highest delegate total for a female Presidential candidate. The leader being Hilary Clinton with 4,820. I expect that total to be overcome... never.

Finally (man, I don't want to open up a can of worms here), there's been considerable conversations in online spaces about voters choosing "Uncommitted" in protest to the President's age and his policy in the Gaza War. The primary isn't over yet but the numbers do not bear that out. Biden is performing about on par with Barack Obama in 2012 and with less fringe competition. While I would definitely consider Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips fringe, they've got nothing on John Wolfe, Jr., Darcy Richardson, Keith Russell Judd, and of course Vermin Supreme. Now that is some good ol' fashioned fringe! All of those candidates racked up higher percentage totals in states against Barack Obama than Phillips, Williamson, or Uncommitted have against Joe Biden. Also, Uncommitted is roughly the same in both elections as well.

Joe Biden is going into the election with the weirdest slate of negatives I've ever seen. "He's too old. I want someone else. I don't have a favorable opinion of him... what? No, of course I'll vote for him."

[danfrank]

FYI, Katie Porter had to give up her House seat to run for Senate, as did Barbara Lee. I did the same as you, deciding last minute to vote for Porter to have a better chance at an all-Dem slate in the general. I was surprised how poorly the two women did. No surprise that the GOP voters consolidated around Garvey. My guess is that the Dems consolidated around Schiff because they saw a winner. Schiff ran a smart race by highlighting Garvey.