The 25th Annual Who'll Be Back?

[anonymous1980]

Enjoyable read as always, Mister Tee! I always look forward to this after every Oscars. Here are my personal assessments and predictions of the actors and directors:

BEST ACTOR

Bradley Cooper- Yes. I think he'll be back for more nominations. However, I predict he'll finally win once he stops chasing it. Like winning for a broad comedy or a well-received genre piece.

Colman Domingo - Yes. I mentioned in another he'll very likely be back for Sing Sing and even could conceivably win. If not, I think he has enough goodwill in the industry that it will happen eventually.

Paul Giamatti - Yes. He works enough that I think another nomination or two down the line is possible. But I think he'll win in Supporting.

Cillian Murphy - Maybe. I think he could go either way. I heard rumors Barbara Broccoli is actually considering him to be the next James Bond. That would be something.

Jeffrey Wright - Maybe. Hard-working, respected character actor finally breaks through with Oscar. I think a Supporting win in the future is not out of the question.

BEST ACTRESS

Annette Bening - Maybe. I agree with people here that an honorary is probably her best chance at getting an Oscar but I'm not completely counting her out.

Lily Gladstone - Yes. A lot of people have pointed out that actresses of color, even after *winning* an Oscar, still do not have a good a career as their white counterparts. While that may be true, I think Lily Gladstone has gathered enough good will that she's gonna be working steadily in high profile parts in the coming years and a nomination and even a win is very possible.

Sandra Huller - Maybe. People have pointed out that international actors who get nominated seldom return. But as people have also pointed out, she can act in English so she will have double opportunities to come back.

Carey Mulligan - Yes. She's been wracking up a respectable filmography and an eventual win may be inevitable for her.

Emma Stone - Yes. But I doubt she's winning a third Oscar, at least for acting. I can see her winning her third Oscar as a producer.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sterling K. Brown - Maybe. He's primarily a TV actor but this nomination could open up more opportunities for him on the big screen so who knows?

Robert De Niro - Yes. He's still quite active and this nomination proves he still has the chops. I can see him getting a nomination or two down the road.

Robert Downey Jr. - No. He finally won his Oscar. He has nothing to prove anymore. I can see him simply cashing this in with projects that are lucrative but not necessarily Oscar-friendly.

Ryan Gosling - Yes. As Mister Tee pointed out, he may not have won the Oscar but he has won over a lot of people with his "I'm Just Ken" performance. His versatility will eventually lead him to the podium.

Mark Ruffalo - Yes. He's an always reliable actor. I'm not sure if he'll win though.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Emily Blunt - Yes. Now that she's broken through, I can see her getting nominations every few years and eventually winning.

Danielle Brooks - No. I feel like she's one-shot. But she will get steady employment out of this.

American Ferrera - No. Another one-shot. She's primarily a TV actress so like Sterling K. Brown, I see this as her getting more movie roles.

Jodie Foster - Maybe. She doesn't work too frequently but she is a respected two-time Oscar winner so never say never.

Da'Vine Joy Randolph - No. Another one-shot. But yeah, she'll work steadily and have a respectable career out of this.

BEST DIRECTOR

Justine Triet - No. I've never heard of her before last year. Who knows if Anatomy of a Fall is a new phase or she just got lucky? For now, I say no.

Martin Scorsese - Yes. As long as he keeps working, he'll always be in the conversation. He might even win another one.

Christopher Nolan - Yes. Perhaps next time he'll win for something more genre-y.

Yorgos Lanthimos - Yes. It seems strange that a director as idiosyncratic (or "weird") as he is would become an Academy favorite but he seems to be able to channel his thing into their wavelength.

Jonathan Glazer - No. As people here have pointed out, he works infrequently and his films are out of the Academy's wheelhouse and can be divisive so this is likely a one-shot.

[Okri]

Fantastic as always.

We often talk about the internationalizing of AMPAS as who it can potentially include. We rarely talk about it as who it might exclude because that both seems more fraught and largely unknowable. But I can imagine some performers and filmmakers falling into that cultural gap. It’ll be interesting to see if we see more critics darlings fail to make it, or if the echo chamber makes that impossible.

I wonder if it’s just Cooper’s earnestness that turns some people off. I remember in 2012 Anne Hathaway was absolutely pilloried for the crime of wanting to win an Oscar and being excited about the whole shebang. Cooper has a bit of that “theatre kid” energy. At the same time, he was also fairly disdainful of the schmoozing process in 2018, which belies the “Oscar bait” tag his serious work can get. As someone who didn’t get why A Star is Born flopped with Oscar the way it did, I find it hard to predict if he’ll win or not. But he’ll get more nominations.

Cillian Murphy came into my field of view with 28 Days Later. While there was a brief period shortly after where I thought he’d become a major presence with critics and auteurs (in five years, he worked with Danny Boyle, Christopher Nolan, Anthony Minghella, Neil Jordan and Ken Loach) he didn’t seem particularly interested in parlaying that into a mainstream, awardsy career. I don’t think that’ll change much. He might stumble into another nomination or two, but I think he’s more a Forest Whitaker or Jeremy Irons.

Giamatti works enough and is respected enough to get more nominations, but will he find such an obvious fit in a biopic? Because that’s probably what he needs. Can see both Domingo and Wright returning and both eventually winning, actually. Wright more likely in supporting than lead.

I don’t have high expectations for Bening. Her nomination haul is respectable but outside 1999, she’s never really gotten winning momentum (I never thought she stood a chance in 2010, actually.) I’m slightly more optimistic about Huller. She won’t go fully Cotillard/Loren, but I think she’ll be quite popular with international auteurs. As a fan since Requiem, I’m rather delighted.

I’m more confident about Mulligan, Stone and Gladstone returning. That Mulligan came back much more quickly this time is a bit of a relief as I did have some doubts after Promising Young Woman.

I'm curious about Gosling. By any measure, he should be someone returning. But I find his misses (Blue Valentine, Drive, First Man) just as telling as his successes. In the first his co-star got into a solid category where he couldn't make a slightly weaker one; the second was too far outside AMPAS' wheelhouse and the last didn't take off in any real sense (sorry/not sorry). I think it's more likely that he does return and win, but I find it weird that he's only gotten 3 Oscar nominations in his career. I’m less curious about Robert Downey Jr. He got his valedictory win. That said, I am curious if his Marvel mate Mark Ruffalo will ever win. I believe performers predominantly known for supporting nominations find it more difficult to accrue career points (Amy Adams, Michelle Williams… even Glenn Close, at a stretch). De Niro is in another gangster movie directed by Barry Levinson, so who knows. I wouldn’t predict Brown to come back either, but he’ll get the chances.

My brother loved Blunt in Oppenheimer. He also saw it four times. I think the feeling, in general, is that people are happier she can have Oscar-nominated now appended to her gravestone as opposed to being disappointed she got nominated for Oppenheimer. I think she’ll be back once or twice. I suspect Randolph, Ferrera and Brooks are all one-and-dones, though recalling Brooks searing one-scene performance in Clemency has me wondering if she’ll get some chances to show her chops. Foster has got such automatic respect that if she does act more, I can see her returning, but 10 films in 17 years is not a lot.

Scorsese has remade himself in this era –- a guy who started out as counterculture/indie guy has become one of our great directors of epic studio films –- but he falls short of the multiple Oscars accumulated by those (Wyler, Spielberg, Wilder, Lean, Zinnemann) with equivalent nomination totals.

Which, given our current culture, remains counter alas. To his immense credit, he doesn’t seem to be slowing down at all and I think he will continue to get the budgets to do the work he wants. That said, as disappointing as it is for his one Oscar to be for The Departed, I suspect that’s what we’ll get.

I don’t think Triet or Glazer are returning. The latter works very rarely and I don’t anticipate that changing. The former works more frequently, but foreign auteurs need a great deal of luck. I do think both Lanthimos and Nolan are returning. Lanthimos films are unusual beasts but I think he’s had too much success for it all it be flukes. To wit, Dogtooth making the list in 2010 over Of Gods and Men, The Human Resources Manager, Confessions, Undertow, Even the Rain, Simple Simon, Uncle Boonmee (stretching it, I know). The Lobster getting an original screenplay nomination is another example. I don’t get how The Favourite lost screenplay in 2018 or how Poor Things never really competed for it this year, but I do think that AMPAS will grock with him. And if he gets even a little bit closer to their sweet spot, I can see him winning. Nolan will get to do whatever he wants and I think AMPAS will listen – but if its too genre his legions may be disappointed.

As for the Bonus rounds

Career-win for the peeps below the line? I’m gonna go with Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer. Barbie was probably too unoriginal to get over the line, but 7 nominations in 18 years is nothing to sniff at.

Director: I’m gonna stick with my prediction of Christian Petzold from a few years ago. I didn’t love Afire like some of the more hardcore auteurists but he’s fairly prolific and his stock has been pretty high. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Kelly Fremon Craig breakthrough in a bigger way next time.

As for performers, I think Andrew Scott is a pretty perfect prediction. For the random performer, I’ll go with Jason Schwartzman. I think he had a good year and seems to be continuing that.

[Big Magilla]

This is a tougher one than usual because so many of the acting nominees seem to have been either here this year for their first and only time or at the end or for their last hurrah.

Among best actor nominees, Colman Domingo will likely be back this year. Paul Giamatti, Jeffrey Wright, and winner Cillian Murphy are basically character actors who occasionally have a lead role so if any of them return, it will just as likely be in a supporting role than a lead one. The same is true for Andrew Scott who may have missed out on his one chance at being a best actor nominee. Bradley Cooper, on the other hand, keeps turning up like a bad penny. He has nothing on the horizon but will likely turn up in another disappointing film at some point for which he will be incongruously nominated once again. Non-nominee this year Leonardo DiCaprio will likely be back quite soon. Barry Keoghan, a nominee in support last year, and a contender this year, will likely be a contender again in either category.

Among the best actress nominees, things look brighter. Emma Stone will surely be nominated for something in the future, although her chances of winning a third Oscar seem remote. Carey Mulligan will surely be nominated again and may well win on her next try. Sandra Hüller if given as a good a role in a Hollywood film will have a much better chance at winning if nominated a second time. Lily Gladstone is one to watch. She could turn up in either lead or supporting in the very near future or not at all. Annette Bening may seem like this was her last nomination, but she's a trouper and could show up either in lead or support within the next few years. Don't weep for Margor Robbie not being nominated this year. She will be around for a long, long, time.

Supporting actor winner Robert Downey Jr. is likely go back to the easy money jobs and not achieve Oscar nomination status again. The same is probably true of Robert De Niro. Ryan Gosling and Mark Ruffalo may well be back, and soon. Sterling K. Brown could be back, but he is still a major TV actor so it may be tough for him to get another Oscar caliber role at least in the distant future. Of those who narrowly missed being nominated in such a competitive year in this category, Willem Dafoe is always a contender no matter what he does, Paul Mescal will have many chances in both lead and supporting, Charles Melton and Dominic Sessa could be contenders if they get the right roles. It's looking much better on the whole for this group than this year's leading actors to pop up sooner than later.

Supporting actress winner Da'Vine Joy Randolph is a chameleon which is highly unusual for a hefty woman of color. She surprised us this year, and she has in her to keep surprising us, but will she? Now that Emily Blunt has finally been nominated, she will likely be back again, perhaps several times before actually winning. Never count Jodie Foster out. She'll be back, maybe not for another decade, but she'll be back. Danielle Brooks, maybe. America Ferrera probably not.

Of the yet to be nominated, Claire Foy and Jamie Bell have to be the most due. Of the two, Foy is more likely to be recognized sooner.

Of the directors and writers, Christopher Nolan may be nominated again but will probably not win again. Yorgos Lanthimos could well win and soon. Cord Jefferson should have a bright future but whether it results in another Oscar nomination, let alone win, seems like a long shot at this point. I hope to see what else Justien Triet and Celine Song can do, but they may have had their first and only shots this year.

[Reza]

A fantastic read as always, Mister Tee.

I don't think Giamatti should be completely dismissed. I agree there has been a huge gap between his two nods and there is so far nothing on the horizon from him that signals another nod. However, this recent lead nod is sure to open him up to getting some interesting offers which could put him in the race again. Most likely in the future we will see him in the supporting race along with Jeffrey Wright.

[danfrank]

That was a super-enjoyable read, Tee. Happy 25th anniversary for this post, one that I always look forward to.

Your reasoning on these guesses is solid, but with many of these actors and directors it really comes down to a hunch. My hunch is that Jeffrey Wright, now that the Oscar door has opened for him, will be back a few times, but in supporting. I also feel more strongly that Lanthimos will be back multiple times, and eventually win.

As for the bonus questions, it’s hard for me to imagine that Rodrigo Prieto won’t be back and eventually win. His work on Killers was exquisite and would have been my choice. I also strongly agree about Andrew Scott. I would add his co-star Claire Foy as someone who’s sure to make the Oscar roster fairly soon.

In the random actor category I’ll go with John Magaro. He was great in Past Lives and he’s caught my attention in other works including First Cow, Orange is the New Black, and The Big Short. He’s been cast by some top-notch directors and I think if he gets the right role he could eventually break through.

[Mister Tee]

So…a very good year, climaxing in an Oscar show whose winners it’s hard to argue were undeserving (even if not “my favorites”). What to do, after the big event (to which the entire year builds) has passed? Well, after putting away dishes, and indulging in a few late sleep-ins, the obvious answer is, brush oneself off, and begin looking ahead. Specifically, as per tradition, foreseeing who among this season’s not-your-year-in-the-end group will return for another shot at snatching the prize. The (god help us) 25th annual Who’ll Be Back?

By all standard measures, the first person on the best actor slate to merit discussion ought to be Bradley Cooper. This was his 5th acting nomination in just over a decade; throw in writing/producing credits, he’s up to 12 citations -- Warren Beatty territory. But, like Beatty in his heyday, he has little to show for it (in his case, nothing), and seems to generate resentment/hostility whenever he gets in Oscar range. (We didn’t have Twitter in Beatty’s time, but viper tongues always find a way to be heard.) This is the second time Cooper’s begun the season the Platonic ideal of favorite, and ended up full-on Oscar bust. I don’t know if this resistance will always pop up to thwart Cooper’s hopes –- but I do suspect, whatever Twitter’s preference, he’ll be back. He has no particular project lined up at the moment (a hangover from the strike, I presume: few of this year’s contenders have much on their immediate plates). But he’s one of few contemporary actors whose clout and ambition will keep leading him to films that hit AMPAS’ sweet spot. Whether he ever crosses that invisible line between nominee and winner is the only unknowable part.

For our this-moment discussion, Colman Domingo –- strictly a tag-along this season –- rates more mention, because he does have an immediate follow-up with some heat around it: as anonymous pointed out in another thread, Sing Sing has already been seen, and is admired, at least to the point another nomination is a live possibility, a win not out of the question. (Actors parlaying chanceless nominations into soon-after wins is longtime Academy tradition, from Rex Harrison to Colin Firth.) Even if not, Domingo is now pretty firmly in industry focus –- something I’m sure comes as welcome news to him, after nearly 30 years in the business –- and should be securing roles that might bring him back to the Dolby in the coming years.

No one much needs to worry about Paul Giamatti continuing to work –- he made the most of his Sideways bump two decades back, and has found steady, prominent employment ever since. The question for him is, will he ever again get as close as he seemingly did this year to becoming an Oscar winner? And the answer there, sad to say, is probably no. There simply aren’t that many bulls-eye parts for an actor of his age and type: the fact that it took this long for him to get a second nomination –- the fact that he was actually skipped over for Sideways itself –- is testimony to that. Perhaps the best way to look at this particular nomination is that it partially undoes the injustice of that Sideways snub (a term I generally avoid, but I think applied in that case). But it will likely have to serve for a lifetime.

One might be tempted to make a similar “enjoy this/you probably won’t be back” pronouncement about Jeffrey Wright. Wright has been many people’s idea of an excellent actor since he first came to prominence, in the original Angels in America production. But that, unbelievably, was 30 years ago, and the fact that AMPAS has never found occasion to cite him before now tells you how quiet a career he’s had. He’s certainly worked, even at prime Hollywood levels – not many can say they’ve done both James Bond and Batman movies –- plus he’s done roles for Jonathan Demme, George Clooney and Wes Anderson. But the bald fact is, roles for late-middle-aged black actors aren’t necessarily plentiful. In talent terms, we should hope to see someone as good as Wright return for future Oscar races. At the opportunity level, though, he might well be foiled.

As for our winner, Cillian Murphy –- had he not been a winner the other night, I’d have pegged him as unlikely to return, and his being victorious may only underline that. However…I see he had a film premiere at Berlin, called Small Things Like These, which got both him and the film fairly high praise. So, you never know: tack-on nominations can also be an Academy thing. But my instinct is to stick by my initial take, that this is a lifetime’s honor.

The other night, at my Oscar gathering, after a shot of Carey Mulligan, I mentioned I thought she was the best thing about Maestro, and was startled by the speed with which everyone in the room agreed. Mulligan, of course, was already on the accumulated-Oscar-points list, particularly after Promising Young Woman, and, though she watched this year’s race pretty much from the sidelines, I’d still say she made some gains toward an ultimate AMPAS trophy. Her reviews for Maestro were among the best of her career, and, even if she was a bystander in the ultimate Stone/Gladstone race, no one questioned she rated her place on the ballot. I don’t know where she goes next, but good people keep casting her, and I’d say she gets luckier and wins it, sometime in the decade ahead.

I don’t know what to say about Annette Bening at this point -- partly because I’ve never seen her as an actress whose career demanded an Oscar. She’s up to 5 nominations now, a hefty total for anyone…yet I heard little outcry that she had to be honored this year (apart from Reza). She’s a solid enough actress that, in the right combo of strong role/no overwhelming competition, could take home the trophy on career points. But this year offered neither of those things, and she was strictly an also-ran for whom even the nomination was questionable. Looking back, I’d say The Kids Are All Right was her best shot –- and the non-nominated 20th Century Women perhaps her most deserving entry –- but neither of those worked out for her, and now she heads into old-lady-hood fighting it out with other, more prominent still-unrewarded’s (the usual list of Close, Weaver, Pfeiffer, Winger). You never know: there could be a Geraldine Page moment ahead (Page had a long series of hopeless nods before The Trip to Bountiful came along). But it becomes harder and harder to envision.

Lily Gladstone was a wonderful, singled-out actress prior to Killers of the Flower Moon –- Certain Women had won her an LA Critics award as far back as 2016. But Scorsese’s film gave her a platform few women of her ethnicity have ever received, and it’s very difficult to imagine her ever getting as close to an Oscar again. She’ll almost certainly see a bump in employment –- she actually has as active an upcoming schedule as anyone on this year’s roster –- and I’d be delighted to be proven wrong, to find out there are more award-roles out there for her. But my instinct is, this was her peak.

The immediate tendency with Sandra Huller is to presume she’ll suffer the fate of most foreign-language nominees: go away and never return (exceptions are big stars like Loren/Ullman, and the anomalous Cotillard). Undercutting that scenario are two things: the fact that, based on Anatomy of a Fall, Huller is perfectly capable of acting in English; and recent Academy results showing a greater willingness to treat international nominees as on closer to equal footing with native speakers. I’d still lean slightly negative on Huller’s future Oscar prospects –- her current schedule is strictly German-language stuff –- but I will watch her career with interest.

When I first saw Emma Stone –- in Easy A –- I thought of her as a dynamic presence, who elevated her material by sheer force of personality. More Julia Roberts/Angelina Jolie than multi-Oscar winning actress. Which shows how much a career’s progression can be a result of projects and directors chosen. Stone flirted with commercial stuff for a while – Spider Man and such. But, in the past decade or so, the odd Cruella aside, she’s devoted herself to gutsy efforts, and finds herself with both respect and popularity. There’s not much sign she’s letting up on this –- she’s got Cruella 2 coming up, but, at the same time, new efforts from Lanthimos and Ari Aster. Expect her back on Academy lists. A third win seems astronomically unlikely…but, since most of her career to date could be described that way, as well, don’t bet everything you own against it.

How gifted is Ryan Gosling? Powerful dramatic actor, who can do comedy with anyone; also sings (and brings down the house). Three nominations so far, in three quite different genres. Impossibly good-looking, but doesn’t project a whiff of arrogance from it. Fully masculine but a gentle soul. What a collection of talents; you get the feeling no one has yet tapped into just how much he can do. (Gerwig may have come closest this year, but, still, it feels like there must be much more.) I think he, hands down, moved furthest up the “yeah, he’ll win an Oscar before long” list this season. The only remaining question is when.

Mark Ruffalo, on the other hand, never seems to get much traction -- despite this being his fourth time at bat, each time in a prominent film, he never seems to enter the win discussion. I grant there are those (like our own Sonic) who hate much of what he does, but accumulating so many nominations in not much more than a decade indicate support somewhere. He continues working like a madman –- his next project, Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite follow-up –- so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pick up future nominations. Maybe, at some point, he’ll get the focus he needs to win.

Sterling K. Brown made his debut with AMPAS this season, but he’s certainly not new to the awards industry –- three-time Emmy winner/9-time nominee over multiple different shows. He’s got a batch of projects lined up in both film and television, and is clearly among the most respected actors of his generation. I feel like we should get used to seeing him on the regular.

Robert DeNiro clearly had no shot at winning this year, but I’m glad he was nominated, anyway, as partial recompense for being disgracefully ignored his last time out with Scorsese. He certainly doesn’t need anything else, from the Academy or anyone, at this point in a half-century career. But he keeps working, and, while he’s certainly done his share of gotta-pay-for-Tribeca-somehow slumming in recent decades, he’ll occasionally demonstrate why he was such a thrilling actor in the 70s. If he does that again, he can get nominated again.

Robert Downey Jr. won his Oscar more than 50 years after his film debut (bit parts in his father’s films); more than 40 years after doing an SNL season (the mid-80s are considered the dark/forgotten era for SNL, but a bunch of truly famous people were involved then); more than 30 years after his first nomination, and 15 years past his 2nd. It’s been a rocky journey, with abysmal lows and dizzying heights, but he got there. Will he ever return? I’m inclined to think no — he still pisses away a lot of his career (case in point: another Sherlock Holmes sequel ahead). But he’s a talented guy when he puts his mind to it, so don’t rule it out.

All right, so Emily Blunt FINALLY got the first-time nomination many have been predicting since The Devil Wears Prada. The question: Did it do anything for her? She certainly never remotely competed for the prize, and maybe provoked a bit of “why was she nominated”? conversation (or was that just here?). Nevertheless…just breaking the ice may help her get future nominations, some more in the running than this year’s effort. She works all the time (though too often in junk genres), and seems to know some of the right people. I’d keep an eye on her over the next decade.

Danielle Brooks went from “she’ll sweep the TV awards” to seasonal footnote in the blink of a Da’Vine Joy Randolph critical landslide. I only halfway watched Orange is the New Black, and don’t much remember her from it, and have never seen her stage work. The breadth of the resume suggests she has the goods to be more than a one-off, but l have no data on which to judge her prospects. Let’s give her an Incomplete on the season.

America Ferrera’s nomination was, no sense my pretending, not a personal favorite – being associated with a huge hit, and delivering a signature monologue, gave her a spot I’d rather have gone to multiple others. But I’m not a heartless soul: like much of the U.S., I find her exceedingly likable, and can’t begrudge her the happiness this evidently gave her. I still think she’s a classic one-off, and will be hugely surprised if she should return.

Speaking of returns: Jodie Foster, back on the roster almost 30 years after her golden era. I wasn’t the biggest fan of hers during that 30-years-back time, which, I know, puts me out of step with much of the world. But I liked her in Nyad; I’d say it was one of her strongest adult performances. She seems to be working a bit more regularly of late, and has settled into a character actress niche, so it’s possible she’ll return yet again…extending her already formidable age gap between first and final nominations.

I’d thought of Da’Vine Joy Randolph as mostly neophyte, at least pre-Dolemite, but I see she’s been racking up credits over the past decade –- granted, much of it obscure TV stuff, but also, notably, the Whoopi part in the Broadway musical of Ghost. She pretty much hit the mountaintop with this role, and it’s hard to imagine her matching that any time soon. But I could see her notching another nomination or two in supporting roles ahead.

It's of course hard to think of a director with an Oscar to hand and 10 nominations as somehow shortchanged, but Martin Scorsese manages the feat. Once again –- at an age when most have long since retired –- he’s turned out a major epic that accumulates massive numbers of nominations, but gets no acknowledgement in the form of trophies. This is no tragedy in isolation, but I think when you look back at Scorsese’s output in the 21st century –- 9 major films, 7 of which have got him best picture and director nominations –- it’s hard to look at a solitary win (for a film few would rank in his top 5) and consider it sufficient recompense. Scorsese has remade himself in this era –- a guy who started out as counterculture/indie guy has become one of our great directors of epic studio films –- but he falls short of the multiple Oscars accumulated by those (Wyler, Spielberg, Wilder, Lean, Zinnemann) with equivalent nomination totals.

Sort of digression, sort of not: I recently watched Raging Bull, for the first time since opening day in 1980. Some of you may recall I’ve always challenged the revisionist “it was the best movie of the decade, should have won the Oscar” outcry, and this re-watch confirmed my feeling. The movie clearly was never going to win with AMPAS (and didn’t even do that well with critics’ awards), for much the same reason Killers of the Flower Moon didn’t. Scorsese’s filmmaking gifts are on ample display –- according to Final Cut, then-UA president Andy Albeck’s comment after the film was “Mr. Scorsese, you are an Artist” –- but the narrative line is weak, dialogue scenes are repetitive, and most of the characters border on despicable. Sound familiar? Scorsese has always been preternaturally gifted, but hobbled by narrative issues and nihilism. Maybe he was lucky The Departed filled a void in 2006, sparing him the Hitchcock/Kubrick/Altman no-Oscars-at-all fate. Or maybe he was unlucky to have produced both The Irishman and Killers in highly competitive years. Regardless: some of us will never stop hoping, as long as he stays active, that a well-deserved second acknowledgment could one day appear.

If I told you three directors from 2010’s Foreign-Language Film roster would, by 2023, account, among them, for 6 directing nominations, would anyone have guessed Yorgos Lanthimos would be responsible for two of them? (I’m not sure I’d have guessed the director of Incendies would go on to the career he’s had, either. Another story.) It’s hard to figure if Lanthimos has just flukily strayed into semi-mainstream territory on both occasions (granted, something hard to do twice), or if he’s genuinely found an unexpected Academy sweet spot and will continue to thrive in the coming years. It’s interesting that he’s directed two leading ladies to best actress Oscars, while not getting any real consideration for directing (nor writing for either film, despite notable scripts both times). Lucky for him, whatever Emma Stone can do to help him along, she’ll do. I suspect an interesting journey.

Jonathan Glazer works so irregularly –- his last feature prior to Zone of Interest was Under the Skin, 10 years ago –- and his output (Sexy Beast and Birth his other features) so anti-mainstream that it’s hard to imagine this was anything but a harmonic convergence for him. He remains a critical favorite, which might help him contend on the edges with future films. But, forced to bet, I’d say this was a one-off.

I confess, Justine Triet was an unknown to me prior to this year’s Cannes. Looking over her c.v., I don’t see any “we should have known she was coming” signals -- none of her previous films were uniquely well-regarded. As for her future…directors who’ve been bought off with screenplay wins don’t have a long history of returning for directing wins –- the Coen brothers are still the only such case. But her next film, certainly, will arouse much expectation ahead of time, so she’ll have her chances in the years just to come.

I was fine with Christopher Nolan winning best director this year –- I don’t share Sonic’s major issues with the guy, and I think of Oppenheimer as a solid, very Oscar-1980s-like film. What’s aggravating is knowing, ahead of time, that his fanboys won’t be satisfied with this; they’ll be clamoring for him to win for his next movie, and the next, no matter the subject matter (as they did with Peter Jackson). I imagine Nolan will manage to get back a time or two, and, if he sticks to historical rather than fantastical material, he may well manage another win, as Spielberg did.

To comment on a few of the nominated writers:

Greta Gerwig of course has to come first. Her remarkable career took another upward turn this year: this lady, just 7 years ago mostly known as indie actress, is now a dependable director of best picture contenders AND a commercial juggernaut. The latter may actually hamper her in Oscar terms –- big studio money-makers seem to get awards eventually, but it can take them a while. Gerwig’s demonstrated talent level, I’d say, makes it almost a certainty she eventually makes it to the stage. (And, as with Paul Thomas Anderson two years back, I was honestly glad she wasn’t pensioned off with the writing trophy the other night; I want her to win the whole thing at some future point.) She’s going to be stuck in Narnia for a bit –- plus, she seems to be somewhat returning to her acting career –- but, whenever she gets back to feature-making, I expect big things…and an eventual Oscar.

Noah Baumbach was seemingly junior partner on Barbie, but it brought him his third writing nomination (he also has one for producing Marriage Story), and you start to think he’ll be in line for a win at some point.

Celine Song’s loss for Past Lives is the only thing that makes me feel bad about Justine Triet’s win. As I noted in another thread, I’m always dubious about a newbie following up an initial success –- especially if elements of the breakthrough suggest autobiography. But I found Past Lives so wonderful, I hope she brushes away my doubts and goes on to an illustrious and Oscar-atoning career.

Tony McNamara is, like Lanthimos, joined at the hip with Emma Stone (including on the Cruella’s). It hasn’t paid off for him, in Oscar terms, so far –- his loss to Green Book an open wound –- but he’s quite active and might well return.

Cord Jefferson lost all the critics’ New Director prizes to Celine Song, but came home with a major trophy at the big show. The vagaries of category placement. As with Triet, he has to worry about the jinx of the screenplay-winning director. But his follow-up project will certainly get him automatic attention

David Hemingson is mostly a TV guy, and The Holdovers isn’t exactly transcendent screenwriting. So, my forecast for him would be Unlikely to Return.

Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik –- who I heard somewhere are partners; is that verified? –- enacted some kind of dream this year: rose from behind the scenes (casting and editing departments), had their first screenplay shot by a top-rate director with big stars, and made the Oscar roster. Where they’ll go from there is anyone’s guess.

Finally, on to the bonus rounds.

First, the below-the-line person who’s accumulated enough losing nominations to start to seem worthy of a win on career points alone. I can’t decide between two multi-feted cinematographers -- Rodrigo Prieto (4 losses now) and Matthew Libatique (a mere 3). Coin flip.

For a director who seems the sort to eventually slip into AMPAS territory…my initial instinct is Andrew Haigh, but the fact he was ignored this year despite the acclkaim makes me wonder if that’s truly likely. So, I’ll say J.A Bayona, based more on A Monster Calls (and his studio prominence) than Society of the Snow…but a little bit the latter, as well.

As for Random Actor I think might step into Oscar territory at some point…there seems a major effort to make Sydney Sweeney a big thing. She was quite good in Reality, and more parts like that –- coupled with big romcom grosses for stuff like Anyone but You –- could get her into the club.

Finally, the original bonus round subject; the actor who was in the discussion this year but missed in the end, yet seems likely to crack the list eventually. Okri is kind enough to point out two of my former choices –- Emily Blunt and Jeffrey Wright –- broke through this year. (I believe Patricia Clarkson and Matthew McConnaughey were previous successful calls.) For this year… Charles Melton was most grievously robbed, but that part was so perfectly tailored to him that I’m uncertain he’ll be able to match it. Greta Lee has plenty going on in her career, and I can see her getting a partly-make-up nod before very long.

But I’m going to go with The Hot Priest himself, Andrew Scott, who gave a heart-wrenching performance this year that somehow missed. I think of him as akin to Jeremy Irons/Dead Ringers or Naomi Watts/Mulholland Drive –- performances so widely acclaimed that their omissions became a rebuke to AMPAS; omissions so ridiculous they almost seemed phantom nominations, which were quite soon rectified. I think Scott will be an Oscar nominee before much longer.

And that’s it for another year. I started this thinking I didn’t have much to say; whether that’s true or not, I appear to have done it at great length. Hope you all enjoy.