The closest example I can think of The Zone of Interest winning would be Sound of Metal. A ground-scale indie where sound design plays an extra character in the film. The biggest difference I can think of is that Sound of Metal wasn't up against Oppenheimer. Its competition was Greyhound, Mank, News of the World, and Soul. I don't really know what would come in second of that.
Generally speaking, it seems as though Best Sound pairs with Best Editing on a regular basis. That's diverged a little as of late. Everything Everywhere All At Once took Editing while Top Gun: Maverick took sound. Ford v. Ferrari gets a technicality of Editing and the now defunct Sound Editing but maybe fi both categories were combined it would've pulled off the double win. Since 2010, only The Social Network (Editing), Argo (Editing), Ford v. Ferrari (half), and Everything Everywhere All At Once failed to grab both awards. I think that precedent bodes well enough for Oppenheimer for it to be considered the favorite.
It's wild to type this but I had completely forgotten that Inception wasn't nominated for Best Film Editing in 2010.
Categories One-by-One: Best Sound
Re: Categories One-by-One: Best Sound
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Best Sound
This is mostly a pretty classic Best Sound line-up -- a couple of loud/dumb action movies, a music film, a big best picture favorite with major techs -- and then there's The Zone of Interest, to wild card things up.
I think, had Zone not won BAFTA, everybody would be going Oppenheimer without a second's hesitation. As dws rightly notes, it's the sort of movie that wins sound even without being part of a best picture run -- two noteworthy recent examples, Inception and Dunkirk; back when Christopher Nolan's fans thought he was unappreciated.
But BAFTA did make that choice, and BAFTA membership overlaps with AMPAS enough that you can't dismiss it out of hand. Zone's argument for the prize comes from a different universe: not loudest (the standard criterion, whether for musicals or action films), but most subtly impactful, and most tied in with the concept of the film. My limited contact with Academy voters suggests this line of thinking works for some; whether they're representative of the whole remains to be seen.
My own instinct? I had similar hopes for The Conversation, way back when -- surely, a film whose very subject was sound had some chance of winning, despite its arty pedigree? But I sat and watched as Earthquake won instead, as I'd deep down always known it would. It's a different era -- the Age of Parasite -- so maybe the odds are better. But, in the end, I expect the Academy's going to Academy, and add this to Nolan's prize bag.
I think, had Zone not won BAFTA, everybody would be going Oppenheimer without a second's hesitation. As dws rightly notes, it's the sort of movie that wins sound even without being part of a best picture run -- two noteworthy recent examples, Inception and Dunkirk; back when Christopher Nolan's fans thought he was unappreciated.
But BAFTA did make that choice, and BAFTA membership overlaps with AMPAS enough that you can't dismiss it out of hand. Zone's argument for the prize comes from a different universe: not loudest (the standard criterion, whether for musicals or action films), but most subtly impactful, and most tied in with the concept of the film. My limited contact with Academy voters suggests this line of thinking works for some; whether they're representative of the whole remains to be seen.
My own instinct? I had similar hopes for The Conversation, way back when -- surely, a film whose very subject was sound had some chance of winning, despite its arty pedigree? But I sat and watched as Earthquake won instead, as I'd deep down always known it would. It's a different era -- the Age of Parasite -- so maybe the odds are better. But, in the end, I expect the Academy's going to Academy, and add this to Nolan's prize bag.
Categories One-by-One: Best Sound
The nominees:
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part I
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Movies not nominated for Best Picture have won Sound awards, but A) not since the category merge (which is a small sample, but still), and B) only once since the Best Picture expansion, when Skyfall tied for the Sound Editing award with Best Picture nominee Zero Dark Thirty. Before that, you have to go back to pre-expansion to see movies not up for Best Picture winning Sound awards. When films not up for Best Picture won Sound awards, it usually came from two scenarios: none of the Best Picture nominees were nominated (this was frequently the case in Sound Editing); or none of the Best Picture nominees were traditional Sound winners (The Bourne Ultimatum winning both awards over No Country For Old Men). In my years of Oscar watching, the only real exception to this was was Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring--which seemed like as traditional a sound winner as anything--losing to Black Hawk Down.
All that to say, The Creator and Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part I are, barring a major surprise, not winning. There was that phenomenon, pre-expansion, of a single movie not up for Best Picture winning two, three, or even four below the line categories: The Bourne Ultimatum, King Kong, Black Hawk Down, The Matrix. But since Best Picture expanded, that tech mini-sweep has been restricted to Best Picture nominees. While I think The Creator and Mission... are both in play for Visual Effects, I don't think they will pull in a second award.
Maestro has very good sound work, but this type of film gets nominated frequently and would only be conceivable as a winner if the movie was winning a lot of awards, and that won't be the case with Maestro.
Some people tend to be gravitating towards The Zone of Interest in this category since the BAFTA awards, but I'm going to make the case for why I think this is still Oppenheimer's to lose: Oppenheimer has very noticeable sound work, has been talked about as a contender since it opened. It has multiple sequences that use sound in very conspicuous (loud) ways, particularly the Trinity test and the rally after Hiroshima. Even if it were not poised to win half-dozen (or more) other awards, it's the type of film that often wins this award. It's very easy to imagine, had things shaken out differently this year, that Oppenheimer would still pull in some combo of Editing/Sound/Score/Cinematography while the big awards went another direction; this is the type of movie that often does that tech mini-sweep even if it isn't a serious Best Picture contender. The fact that it is the Best Picture frontrunner only boosts its chances, in my opinion.
The Zone of Interest would be a fine winner, but it's sound work is much more subtle, much more low-key than that of Oppenheimer. It's the type of film and sound job that branch members are going to appreciate and nominate, but in the final vote, the general membership tends to go for more conspicuous sound work. If, as seems likely, Oppenheimer is going to win somewhere in the range of 7-9 awards, I don't see precedent for something like The Zone of Interest stopping it in this category.
So while I think The Zone of Interest has a shot, especially when accounting for the fact that recent membership expansions may change voting and outcomes in ways we aren't fully aware of yet, I think Oppenheimer makes much more sense as the winner here, especially when the movie isn't showing (m)any signs of weakness.
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part I
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Movies not nominated for Best Picture have won Sound awards, but A) not since the category merge (which is a small sample, but still), and B) only once since the Best Picture expansion, when Skyfall tied for the Sound Editing award with Best Picture nominee Zero Dark Thirty. Before that, you have to go back to pre-expansion to see movies not up for Best Picture winning Sound awards. When films not up for Best Picture won Sound awards, it usually came from two scenarios: none of the Best Picture nominees were nominated (this was frequently the case in Sound Editing); or none of the Best Picture nominees were traditional Sound winners (The Bourne Ultimatum winning both awards over No Country For Old Men). In my years of Oscar watching, the only real exception to this was was Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring--which seemed like as traditional a sound winner as anything--losing to Black Hawk Down.
All that to say, The Creator and Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part I are, barring a major surprise, not winning. There was that phenomenon, pre-expansion, of a single movie not up for Best Picture winning two, three, or even four below the line categories: The Bourne Ultimatum, King Kong, Black Hawk Down, The Matrix. But since Best Picture expanded, that tech mini-sweep has been restricted to Best Picture nominees. While I think The Creator and Mission... are both in play for Visual Effects, I don't think they will pull in a second award.
Maestro has very good sound work, but this type of film gets nominated frequently and would only be conceivable as a winner if the movie was winning a lot of awards, and that won't be the case with Maestro.
Some people tend to be gravitating towards The Zone of Interest in this category since the BAFTA awards, but I'm going to make the case for why I think this is still Oppenheimer's to lose: Oppenheimer has very noticeable sound work, has been talked about as a contender since it opened. It has multiple sequences that use sound in very conspicuous (loud) ways, particularly the Trinity test and the rally after Hiroshima. Even if it were not poised to win half-dozen (or more) other awards, it's the type of film that often wins this award. It's very easy to imagine, had things shaken out differently this year, that Oppenheimer would still pull in some combo of Editing/Sound/Score/Cinematography while the big awards went another direction; this is the type of movie that often does that tech mini-sweep even if it isn't a serious Best Picture contender. The fact that it is the Best Picture frontrunner only boosts its chances, in my opinion.
The Zone of Interest would be a fine winner, but it's sound work is much more subtle, much more low-key than that of Oppenheimer. It's the type of film and sound job that branch members are going to appreciate and nominate, but in the final vote, the general membership tends to go for more conspicuous sound work. If, as seems likely, Oppenheimer is going to win somewhere in the range of 7-9 awards, I don't see precedent for something like The Zone of Interest stopping it in this category.
So while I think The Zone of Interest has a shot, especially when accounting for the fact that recent membership expansions may change voting and outcomes in ways we aren't fully aware of yet, I think Oppenheimer makes much more sense as the winner here, especially when the movie isn't showing (m)any signs of weakness.