Let's Get Alphabetical

[Mister Tee]

Bog has flattered me into putting this together; I can’t recall the last time I did one, though I know it used to be a regular feature. Hope it amuses you and/or enhances your perception of the rapid read-off coming Tuesday morning.

I’m skipping the best picture category, because we’re all picking the same films and no one needs guidance. There’s of course the bare chance something shockingly slides in -- AMPAS goes BAFTA one better and puts All of Us Strangers on the roster; The Color Purple rises from the seeming dead; or, against all odds, this becomes the year the Academy comes through for Todd Haynes. If any of those does happen, we’ll all know it instantly, and, honestly, I have no idea which film is most likely to be bumped in such a circumstance.

In the best actor category, much of the action comes at the top of the list: three candidates at least somewhat on the bubble -- Bradley Cooper, Leonardo DiCaprio, and Colman Domingo -– lead the alphabetical brigade. Cooper isn’t considered iffy by some, given his SAG/BAFTA presence, but I’m not 100% sold. In any case, he comes first, or not at all. If either of DiCaprio/Domingo (or both, with no Cooper) make it, we almost surely know the remainder of the field: Paul Giamatti, Cillian Murphy, and Jeffrey Wright. Andrew Scott is essentially relying on two of those first three being left off. Though I suppose there’s also a world where Jeffrey Wright could be omitted.

Best actress seems to me a similar 7-into-5 situation. If I’m wrong about this, and Fantasia Barrino makes a miraculous comeback, she’ll know the good news at the top. Slightly less long-shot (because, SAG) Annette Bening will also know her fate immediately. BAFTA notwithstanding, Lily Gladstone should follow. If she’s the first name read off (which is how I’d bet), the remainder of the cull is simple -- 3-of-4 in the middle (Sandra Huller, Greta Lee, Carey Mulligan and Margot Robbie all having a shot), with Emma Stone holding her guaranteed spot at the tail end. General feeling is Lee being the one to lose out, but I’m not ready to abandon her completely.

I feel like supporting actor is an 8-wide category, with a weird alphabetical distribution: the dead-certainties -– Downey & Gosling -– lie pretty much in the center, with iffier candidates half at the top and half at the bottom. Three maybes lead off the roll-call: Sterling K. Brown, Willem Dafoe, and Robert DeNiro (some might say DeNiro, thanks to sweeping through SAG and BAFTA, is locked in, but I’ll remain skeptical till I hear his name read). Should all three of these gentlemen be announced, the slate is almost surely set. If 1, 2 or 3 of them misses, the guys nearer alphabet’s end get their shot –- in order, the nearly-forgotten Charles Melton, one-time sure thing Mark Ruffalo, and newly-on-the-rise Dominic Sessa. I can’t recall a year where things divided up quite this way, pitting one group against another -– each of the latter three will be rooting like hell for some or all of the earlier group to falter.

Supporting actress, by contrast, has two likely candidates who get their fates decided early, and one dead-certainty (Randolph) with a reserved spot at the end. The muddle is in-between. Because of the way precursors have gone, general assumption is Emily Blunt and Danielle Brooks will be the first two names read. (I’m not quite 100% on either, for opposite reasons -- Blunt’s performance isn’t so strong, Brooks’ movie has flamed out). The number of open spots if they both show up is thus two -- more, of course, if one or both miss. Those precious slots will be drawn from a lengthy list that goes, in order: Penelope Cruz, America Ferrera, Jodie Foster, Claire Foy, Sandra Huller, Rachel McAdams, Julianne Moore, and Rosamund Pike. Whoever’s lucky enough to emerge from that scrum will be followed by Da’Vine Joy Randolph -– who will then crush them in final balloting.

Best director is a daunting category to handicap -- significantly more difficult than best picture for the simple reason it entails basically the same films, but only offers 5 slots rather than 10. (Some years, there might be an additional, director-friendly foreign-language effort, but in 2023, those films are all making the best picture slate.) I’m not feeling Maestro or American Fiction being real contenders here –- neither seems quite big enough a deal, or offers a profile for which directors frequently go. Of the remaining 8, honestly -- after the BAFTAs -- I’m thinking only Nolan is safe for a slot; I believe this could be a forget-the-DGA/chaos kind of year, like we saw in 1995 or 2012. So, I have little in the way of guidance to offer, other than, remember: nominees will be announced alphabetically by Film Title, not director name. The order in which they arrive for judgment: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer (the one lock), Past Lives, Poor Things and The Zone of Interest. The only ones who can truly know their fates early are the first few, and the last –- Glazer knows if Lanthimos gets the 4th slot, Zone of Interest is in.

Adapted Screenplay became a much fiercer category when the rules committee relocated Barbie here. Even before that, several films were on the bubble, especially those early in the alphabet -- All of Us Strangers, American Fiction and Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret (the last now a deep long-shot, but there’s a world where it could have slipped in). If one or two of those are cited, there’ll be serious titles boxed out afterward. If, contrarily, Barbie is the first title read out, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things and The Zone of Interest should follow without much debate.

Original Screenplay, by contrast, seems so sparsely populated that a Todd Haynes film is thought a near shoo-in. You know the expected sequence: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December and Past Lives. If there are unexpected interlopers, they should arrive early (Air or Asteroid City) or very late (Saltburn).

You’re on your own for the below-the-line categories.

We’ll talk Tuesday.