Sijmen's Oscar Experiment

[Mister Tee]

I had 82%. Not great, but not too bad either. I'm frustrated about missing Bradley Cooper, since that was a no brainer. I blame the Golden Globes that decided to have six nominees per category instead of five.
Oh, well. I had my fun

We've very much enjoyed having you back, and hope it's an ongoing thing.

[sijmen]

I had 82%. Not great, but not too bad either. I'm frustrated about missing Bradley Cooper, since that was a no brainer. I blame the Golden Globes that decided to have six nominees per category instead of five.
Oh, well. I had my fun

[Mister Tee]

Greg wrote
Could Barbie being ahead of Oppenheimer be the result of a glitch that Barbie had most of its precursor successes in the Original Screenplay category which, this year, has been less competitive than the Adapted Screenplay category?

That is 100% the case.

I am bracing myself for an Oscar morning where Gerwig shows up neither for writing or directing.

Very much not impossible. Adapted screenplay is a demolition derby.

(While original is so loose, even a Todd Haynes film has a good shot.)

[Sabin]

Greg wrote
Could Barbie being ahead of Oppenheimer be the result of a glitch that Barbie had most of its precursor successes in the Original Screenplay category which, this year, has been less competitive than the Adapted Screenplay category?

That is 100% the case.

I am bracing myself for an Oscar morning where Gerwig shows up neither for writing or directing.

[Greg]

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer

Could Barbie being ahead of Oppenheimer be the result of a glitch that Barbie had most of its precursor successes in the Original Screenplay category which, this year, has been less competitive than the Adapted Screenplay category?

[sijmen]

The experiment is over! This is the final result:

BEST PICTURE
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Anatomy of a Fall
4. Barbie
5. Poor Things
6. The Holdovers
7. The Zone of Interest
8. American Fiction
9. Maestro
10. Past Lives

11. May December
12. The Color Purple
13. The Boy and the Heron

These are the 10 PGA nominees, and I feel pretty good about is.

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
5. Greta Gerwig, Barbie

6. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
7. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
8. Todd Haynes, May December
9. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
10. Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

This is a solid prediction and I expect to have at least 4/5

BEST ACTOR
1. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
3. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
4. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
7. Colman Domingo, Rustin
8. Barry Keoghan, Saltburn
9. Teo Yoo, Past Lives
10. Franz Rogowski, Passages

The most easy and lazy way to predict the Oscar nominations is to copy and paste the guild nominations. My goal of this experiment is to do better than that. But this year I feel this experiment will fail terribly. Bradley Cooper and Colman Domingo instead of Andrew Scott and Leonardo DiCaprio makes a lot more sense, in my opinion. I expect to score a mere 3/5 in this category.

Sidenote: Leonardo on 5th place has 8.55 point, Bradley on 6th place has 8.33, a difference of only 0.22 points, which is close to nothing!

BEST ACTRESS
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Margot Robbie, Barbie
5. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

6. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
7. Annette Bening, Nyad
8. Natalie Portman, May December
9. Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
10. Greta Lee, Past Lives

Of all the acting categories, I'm most confident about this one.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
5. Charles Melton, May December

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
7. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
8. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
9. Glenn Howerton, Blackberry (TIE)
- Jacob Elordi, Saltburn (TIE)
- Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers (TIE)

I would be very surprised if Charles Melton got in. I expect Dafoe or Sessa instead. That's 4/5

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
3. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
4. Jodie Foster, Nyad
5. Julianne Moore, May December

6. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn
7. Rachel McAdams, Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret
8. America Ferrara, Barbie
9. Sandra Hüller, The Zone of Interest
10. Juliette Binoche, The Taste of Things (TIE)
- Claire Foy, All of Us Strangers (TIE)

Randolph, Blunt and Brooks. The other two are anyone's guess. Jodie Foster, Penelope Cruz, Rosamund Pike, Rachel McAdams and Sandra Hüller are all possible. I think Julianne Moore is rather a longshot. I hope to get 4/5 but I fear 3/5.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Anatomy of a Fall
2. The Holdovers
3. Past Lives
4. May December
5. Maestro

6. Fallen Leaves

These are the only titles that received points in this category.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
3. Poor Things
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. The Zone of Interest

6. American Fiction
7. All of Us Strangers
8. Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret

No American Fiction for Best Adapted Screenplay seems weird. But what film would be left out? I expect 4/5 here.

[sijmen]

BTW: There's isn't all that 'next' anymore: only the PGA, The BAFTA and the Online Film Critics Society. So at this point, it's normal to have four 'locks' and one uncertainty per category.

And the Critics Choice Awards, I forgot about them.

[Sabin]

sijmen wrote
BTW: There's isn't all that 'next' anymore: only the PGA, The BAFTA and the Online Film Critics Society. So at this point, it's normal to have four 'locks' and one uncertainty per category.

Thanks for clarifying

[sijmen]

I think what Sabin meant(?)....and what I'm wondering as well...how often do those listed as "LOCK" miss out on the category in which you've found them to be locked?....I imagine with how well you have formulated it is quite rare...do you track % on this happening?

Those listed as locks don't have any more chances to be nominated than those who are not listed as locks yet. When you see 'lock' next to a film/perfomance, it means that mathematically they will stay in the predicted Top 5 (Top 10 for Best Picture) whatever happens next.

BTW: There's isn't all that 'next' anymore: only the PGA, The BAFTA and the Online Film Critics Society. So at this point, it's normal to have four 'locks' and one uncertainty per category.

[Bog]

I think what Sabin meant(?)....and what I'm wondering as well...how often do those listed as "LOCK" miss out on the category in which you've found them to be locked?....I imagine with how well you have formulated it is quite rare...do you track % on this happening?

[sijmen]

BTW, it looks like the WGA nominations play an important part throughout much of your formula. But they're not going to happen before the Oscar noms this year. So what do you do about that?

No, they won't and it's a bummer I won't have the WGA noms before the nominations. I will just leave them out and hope for the best. That's all I can do. (the same with the ACE noms, btw)

[Sonic Youth]

There were a few years where I tried following the formula, but I could never finish it. Its a HUGE commitment. I can only imagine how much time it took to create it.

BTW, it looks like the WGA nominations play an important part throughout much of your formula. But they're not going to happen before the Oscar noms this year. So what do you do about that?

[sijmen]

Thank you for this. Do your locks ever miss out?

Absolutely! With 'lock' I mean: at the end of the experiment this film/performance will be a predicted nominee.

But that doesn't mean the prediction can't be wrong... (unfortunately )

[Sabin]

Thank you for this. Do your locks ever miss out?

[sijmen]

Here's an update of the experiment:

BEST PICTURE
1. Oppenheimer (LOCK)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (LOCK)
3. Barbie (LOCK)
4. Poor Things (LOCK)
5. Anatomy of a Fall(LOCK)
6. Past Lives (LOCK)
7. The Holdovers (LOCK)
8. American Fiction
9. Maestro
10. The Zone of Interest

11. May December (mathematical still possible)

BEST DIRECTOR
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (LOCK)
2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon (LOCK)
3. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall (LOCK)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things (LOCK)
5. Greta Gerwig, Barbie (LOCK)

BEST ACTOR
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (LOCK)
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers (LOCK)
3. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction (LOCK)
4. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

6. Bradley Cooper, Maestro (still possible)
7. Colman Domingo, Rustin (long shot, but mathematical still possible)

BEST ACTRESS
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (LOCK)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (LOCK)
3. Margot Robbie, Barbie (LOCK)
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
5. Penelope Cruz, Ferrari

6. Carey Mulligan, Maestro (possible and likely)
7. Annette Bening, Nyad (long shot, but mathematical still possible)

(No idea why the satellite awards have put Cruz in the leading actress category (have they even seen the film?), but according to the experiment's rules: the first time a performance is mentioned is the category she or he stays in.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (LOCK)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (LOCK)
3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
5. Charles Melton, May December

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things (long shot, but mathematical still possible)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (LOCK)
2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer (LOCK)
3. Jodie Foster, Nyad (LOCK)
4. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
5. Julianne Moore, May December

6. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (possible if nominated for the BAFTA)
7. Rachel McAdams, Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret (possible if nominated for the BAFTA)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Anatomy of a Fall (LOCK)
2. The Holdovers (LOCK)
3. May December (LOCK)
4. Past Lives (LOCK)
5. Maestro

BEST ADAPTED SCREENLAY
1. Oppenheimer (LOCK)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (LOCK)
3. Poor Things (LOCK)
4. Barbie (LOCK)
5. The Zone of Interest