DGA Nominees & Winner

[Reza]

No one commented because frankly its been very exhausting wading through the endless series of awards. After a while they all began to blur and going down each of the winner or nominee lists became quite a chore.

I've never felt like this before. There are now just too many awards.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Limiting it to sweeps narrows the field significantly, since only 4 films have won picture/director since 2014, and one of them (Parasite/Bong Joon-ho) was an upset from DGA. If you broaden it to "won best director after previous go", Jane Campion would be in that camp. And Chazelle had a previous best picture contender garnering many rabid fans, which certainly helped his cause.

I was talking about going onto win Best Picture. Campion went onto win Best Director... and that's it. You're right about Chazelle but he lost to someone else on his first go of it.

Mister Tee wrote
2) Though I still heavily lean to (now) Grammy-winning What Was I Made For?, I think there's a small chance I'm Just Ken steals away best song -- it's sung in the body of the film, people might think Billie Eilish is over-rewarded at her super-young age, and there's at least a niche number of voters who'll go with the "fun" song.

Can't believe I forgot to mention Best Original Song. When was the last time that Best Original Song was such a toss-up? Probably 2017 when it was between "Remember Me" and "This Is Me." But who cared? People are going to be glued to their sets to see who wins. Right now, I would bet on "I'm Just Ken." I don't think I've felt as invested in this category since "Things Have Changed."

I'll add Best Makeup to the list as well.

You're also right about Best Supporting Actor. I've given up on my dream of Ryan Gosling taking it at the last moment (again: I don't see how such a memorable & beloved character doesn't at least have some chance) but there's no real reason to. SAG & BAFTA haven't voted yet.

Side note: I have a hunch this will be a fun show.

[Mister Tee]

No one commented because it was such a non-event. I barely remembered to check the result before I went to bed.

if Oppenheimer goes onto sweep the Oscars, Nolan will be the first director since Birdman to do so not on his first proper Best Picture go of it at it with Oscar voters, with Inarritu having been at bat previously with Babel.

Limiting it to sweeps narrows the field significantly, since only 4 films have won picture/director since 2014, and one of them (Parasite/Bong Joon-ho) was an upset from DGA. If you broaden it to "won best director after previous go", Jane Campion would be in that camp. And Chazelle had a previous best picture contender garnering many rabid fans, which certainly helped his cause.

And maybe a closer comp, Spielberg won on his fifth try for The Color Purple.

I don't think there's much need to go any further than than Spielberg for the best comparison with Nolan's trajectory -- the only real difference being Spielberg's somewhat fluke DGA win in 1985. Consider: guy comes along, makes an early film with critical cache (Sugarland Express/Memento); quickly moves on to making blockbusters that earn studios gazillions and collect rabid fans, but fail to win awards from lack of seriousness; consistently does well with DGA, but is notably passed over for Oscar nods, and causes major hubbub in the entertainment press; after about two decades, puts together a 3-hour biographically-centered film set in WWII that is both a critical and financial success, and waltzes to his first Oscar. The Spielberg DGA win in 1993 was roughly the same level of non-news as this result. (Clint Eastwood, giving out the prize, preambled with "Now, this is going to come as a big surprise".)

In any news, at least there are a number of suspenseful other categories out there. I'm not certain at all about Best Actor, Actress, either screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Visual Effects, or Goddamn Cartoon.

1) I'd add make-up to that. Didn't get around to responding to your thoughts in the one-by-one thread. Obviously Maestro CAN win, and, if it does, I presume I'll never persuade you the contest was ever up in the air. But I'll point out that, of the few groups that give out make-up awards (a couple of those stray local critics, plus the Broadcasters), not a one of them chose Maestro -- wins were split between un-nominated Barbie and Poor Things. Obviously not dispositive, but I'd also say not indicative of the "will win unless they despise the movie with the heat of a thousand suns" scenario you propose.

2) Though I still heavily lean to (now) Grammy-winning What Was I Made For?, I think there's a small chance I'm Just Ken steals away best song -- it's sung in the body of the film, people might think Billie Eilish is over-rewarded at her super-young age, and there's at least a niche number of voters who'll go with the "fun" song.

3) There's also the bare chance that, while BAFTA/SAG could foreclose the race in lead actor or actress, they could also open up supporting actor (supporting actress is beyond reclamation). It's unlikely, and has only a narrow path -- at this point, with Ruffalo off ballots, it would be down to one group or other going for Gosling over Downey. This probably won't happen, from a combination of Barbie-isn't-serious and respect for Downey's longer years of service. But it's not 100% sealed till those two voting bodies weigh in.

4) Totally agree about the screenplays, and the best thing about it is, the WGA's going-late calendar means BAFTA (and, I suppose, USC Scripter) will be the only precursor info. Given that BAFTA can be on-the-money (as in 2020) or spectacularly off (last year), we'll effectively be flying blind in predicting.

It looks like the Academy will give it to a Ukraine doc again.

There was an article in Variety last week saying the influx of non-US voters post #Oscarssowhite has been strongly felt in the documentary branch, and that this year's pretty obscure group of nominees reflects that. I've only seen two of them as yet (Mariupol and Eternal Memory), and I'm not even sure I have the motivation to watch some of the others. Mariupol would likely be favored anyway, with Ukraine funding so front-and-center just now, but the unknown status of the other nominees certainly helps.

[Sabin]

Decided to update the name of this thread.

I'm trying to think of the last time a Best Picture winner was so apparently and the first answer that leaps to mind is Danny Boyle's Slumdog Millionaire. An interesting connection with that year is by far the dominant story was the "snubbing" of Christopher Nolan and The Dark Knight, a sin so foul the Best Picture roster was expanded for the first time since 1943 to atone for the voters' sins. Starting this year the Best Picture roster has now been expanded for a long period of time than it was from the start (in the 30's and 40's). Well, he's now got his DGA (on his fifth try) and nary a word from us. We occupy a very interesting corner of the interwebs.

I think some of that has to do with the fact that it's been so apparent that Oppenheimer was going to win from summer onward. Of note: if Oppenheimer goes onto sweep the Oscars, Nolan will be the first director since Birdman to do so not on his first proper Best Picture go of it at it with Oscar voters, with Inarritu having been at bat previously with Babel. I would argue that Nolan's had had significantly more attempts than that but as I'm writing this I realize that I'm not certain. Were we not in an expanded roster era, I can't say for certain that Inception would've made the cut. Dunkirk is more likely but are you that certain that it would've been Dunkirk and not Phantom Thread? In any case, he is the first director to win his first DGA award with multiple nominations under his belt since Scorsese for The Departed. For those interested in feeling old, Scorsese won his DGA for The Departed on his seventh nomination. And maybe a closer comp, Spielberg won on his fifth try for The Color Purple.

In any news, at least there are a number of suspenseful other categories out there. I'm not certain at all about Best Actor, Actress, either screenplay, Production Design, Costume Design, Visual Effects, or Goddamn Cartoon.

I was more intrigued by the winner of the First Time Feature category. It seemed like Celine Song was the likely winner but with three more Oscar nominations would anyone confidently count out Cord Jefferson? Heck, I was paying closer attention to Best Documentary. It looks like the Academy will give it to a Ukraine doc again.

[Sabin]

And Mstyslav Chernov for 20 Days in Mariupol for Doc.

[anonymous1980]

Christopher Nolan has won DGA.

Celine Song wins First-Time Feature Director.

[Big Magilla]

Agree with all of Sabin's predictions including his runners-up.

[Sabin]

Predictions:

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Pretty much a no-brainer.


Outstanding Directorial Achievement in First-Time Theatrical Feature Film: Celine Song, Past Lives
This one is a real question mark. It could be Cord Jefferson or Celine Song. Cord Jefferson feels like more of an industry darling but I suspect it's seen as a more written than directed thing. Celine Song is making big waves right now.

Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Documentary: Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol
They're all first-time nominees except for Davis Guggenheim for Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, who interestingly was nominated for Waiting for Superman but not An Inconvenient Truth. That could help him. Also, they've proven willing to honor a film not nominated for an Oscar. I think Still has a good shot, but 20 Days in Mariupol is probably the best bet.

[OscarGuy]

Lanthimos is Greek. He grew up in, was educated in, and spent most of his life in Greece. He moved to the UK from 2011 through 2021, so he had a 10-year residency in London, but has since moved back to Athens as his primary residence. "Poor Things" is, my guess, a British production. It doesn't matter the nationality of the director. Though, after "The Favourite," I'm sure they'd claim him as British even if he weren't (which he's not).

[Okri]

The most recent figure who shares a lot in common with Gerwig/Barbie is George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road, a box office success that people discounted because it was a populist piece, not strictly an artistic one.

I think this point is very salient. Are there examples of commercial plays getting left off? Of course. Heck, in the year Oscarguy refers to above, we've got Ridley Scott for The Martian not making it. But Gerwig's praise really does echo Miller's and a lot of the credit for the films success if being given to her. And many here, including myself, were very doubtful about Miller making it. Miller had the added advantage that it's clearly his vision whereas Barbie may not be, but honestly, Gerwig is getting the credit for making it play as well as it did. The film will end up being a huge Oscar success - a potential nomination leader. For that to miss best director would be a surprise at this point.

BAFTA is claiming Poor Things as British - maybe Lanthimos checks off the international box there?

I think Song or Glazer are more likely than Payne, but that's the slot I think is up for argument.

[OscarGuy]

Before that, it was definitely Spielberg.

[OscarGuy]

Sorry, Greg. It was recent. Denis Villeneuve for Dune. That film got 10 nominations without a Best Directing citation.

[OscarGuy]

Here's a bit of a frame of reference. Greta Gerwig (through Sunday) had been nominated for 22 prizes. That's one more than Martin Scorsese and two less than Christopher Nolan. Celine Song has more citations than Yorgos Lanthimos. Those are the five most recognized. Glazer has 7 and Haynes has 6. Payne has 5, but so do Cooper and Jefferson.

22 is 84.62% of the total number of directing categories across all precursors.

The most recent figure who shares a lot in common with Gerwig/Barbie is George Miller/Mad Max: Fury Road, a box office success that people discounted because it was a populist piece, not strictly an artistic one.

Here are all of the directors in the last 5 years (since I've been tracking percentages in addition to totals) who've nabbed 80% or more of precursor citations for Best Director: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert; Jane Campion; Chloe Zhao; and Alfonso Cuaron. Even Bong Joon-ho didn't reach 80%. The commonality between all of these is: they won Best Directing. Scorsese and Nolan are both over 80% this year, which is the only fly in that ointment.

A lot has changed since 1975.

[Greg]

Barbie appears headed to double-digit nominations. When was the last time a director for a double-digit-nominated film was left off, Spielberg for The Color Purple?

[Mister Tee]

I think it's possible to believe several things:

1) Gerwig is enormously talented, and Barbie is as good a film as it is because of her contributions.

2) Commercial efforts, no matter how skillfully made, are often the most vulnerable to omission by the directing branch. Witness one of history's most famous examples, Spielberg not cited for directing Jaws, despite universal acknowledgement it was his exceptional talent that made the film the sensation it was.

3) The directors' branch is small (under 300, I believe) and sometimes idiosyncratic, with a current heavy lean toward art films.

4) It's been an exceptional year for above-average films. We're not even talking about possible nominations for Andrew Haigh or Cord Jefferson, despite extravagant praise for their work. Someone -- several someones, in fact -- who'd normally have an excellent shot at a directing nomination (and would have been slam dunks over most of the past three years) will be omitted, and it's not a matter of their being snubbed: it's that there are only five slots, no matter if the vintage is prime or sub-standard.

If it all devolves to "they left off Gerwig because she's a woman", I'm going to disconnect from the Internet for a week.