SAG Nominations

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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Okri »

a) I think Brown also benefited from the fact that he's a popular television actor. We've seen that before - Jennifer Aniston, Steve Carrell, Cloris Leachman, Holly Hunter have all gotten nominations for films at the SAGs that didn't translate to the Oscars

b) I sometimes wonder if those performers that had a strong Oscar/performance record prior to the SAGs get a bit of a boost, almost as a make-up. It's a silly supposition because if they're still working, they're probably respected enough to get recognized without that feeling, but the SAG only things are often given to actors in that realm (I'm thinking Kevin Kline for Life as a House, as an example).

c) Just gonna point out that The Color Purple's metacritic score is 73 compare to Maestro's 77. I feel somewhat defensive of it even if I didn't really think it's all that worthy.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by dws1982 »

May December has some particularly barbed attacks on actors, so I understand SAG not responding positively to this. I do think Melton probably still has a shot, but I wouldn't put money on it.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by OscarGuy »

This only stabilizes my belief that Todd Haynes cannot do anything to impress the Academy and May December looks like yet another in a long line of over-estimated Haynes films to collapse by the time the Oscar nominations come out. And I say that as someone who loves Haynes' films. Carol and Far from Heaven were both robbed. He's just not a director the Academy loves. Maybe one day they'll treat him like they treat Paul Thomas Anderson, a director who can do no wrong and must be nominated at every turn. Sadly, that day is not this one.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Eric »

Mister Tee wrote: Wed Jan 10, 2024 2:06 pm Things about SAG to keep in mind when evaluating their nominees:

1) They have a substantial Netflix bias. The channel is almost always over-represented in nominations.
Then I think the biggest headline here is that May December's acting hopes aren't just dead, they're uber-dead.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Big Magilla »

Now that SAG has a broadcast deal with Netflix, expect the Netflix domination to continue.

I liked Bening's Nyad performance and have no problem with her being among the top five but Hüller will almost certainly be nominated by AMPAS, possibly in her slot but just as possibly in Mulligan's or Robbie's. Lee has the tougher hill to climb as nominating her without also nominating one or both of her co-stars has always seemed a bit unfair and neither Teo Yoo nor John Magaro have much of a chance. The film will do better in Picture, Screenplay, and quite possibly, Director, but Actress, though certainly possible, is iffy.

All of Us Strangers and Saltburn will almost certainly do well with BAFTA, bolstering their Oscar positions. I see Andrew Scott in place of Domingo and Rosamund Pike in place of any one of the Supporting Actress contenders except Randolph and Foster. Julianne Moore and Claire Foy are also strong possibilities.

Supporting Actor is now seemingly more fluid than we thought. Dafoe over Ruffalo is surprising, but not shocking.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Mister Tee »

Things about SAG to keep in mind when evaluating their nominees:

1) They have a substantial Netflix bias. The channel is almost always over-represented in nominations.
2) They tend to be late catching up when it comes to December releases. Many of the "corrections" AMPAS makes to their slate involves late-arriving releases
3) If the Oscars have an #Oscarssowhite issue, SAG is the bizarro version, favoring black-heavy ensembles in particular. Many black-dominant casts have shown up in Ensemble that didn't make AMPAS' best picture list.
4) They can show favoritism toward popular local citizens, and, conversely, very seldom honor individuals in non-English language films.

How all that plays into this year's slate:

Netflix gets the two Nyad ladies, the Maestro co-leads, and Domingo (who also benefits from number 3). But May December wipes out. SAG's Netflix love going up against Haynes-aversion is an irresistible force/immovable object situation, and the latter prevailed.

Missing December developments means not only passing on something like All of Us Strangers (or, I suppose, The Iron Claw), but also failing to understand that The Color Purple is now totally uncool. (Worth remembering: Nine also got the Ensemble nod in 2009.) I'm not saying Purple can't make the Academy's list -- anything can nab a 10th slot, and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close long ago proved a film can survive no one especially liking it if it's been in the conversation long enough. Plus, many of the other contenders will appeal to similar voting constituencies, while The Color Purple kind of has a lane to itself.

I love Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction, and certainly don't rule him out for crashing the category at AMPAS. But he still might be, like Domingo, a beneficiary of SAG's generosity to black actors.

There've been rumors Annette Bening was such a stalwart during the labor wars this summer that people are supporting her Nyad run on a good-character basis. On top of her obvious Chamber of Commerce status as long-time LA citizen. Not to say she's got zero chance with AMPAS, but to argue this nomination may not be especially meaningful.

No one expected Sandra Huller here, but I think people maybe over-expected Past Lives/Greta Lee. The chances of the film in Ensemble were slim simply due to the small size of the cast (the same thing that worked against The Holdovers and Poor Things). But even Greta Lee had the subtitle thing going against her. The fact that -- what? -- 25% of the film is in English seems to have hypnotized some into thinking it passes for an American film. It's as much (or more) a foreign-language effort as Anatomy of a Fall, and not likely to be SAG bait. I think its chances at BAFTA are better.

Okay, to comment on each individual slate:

Oppenheimer, Killers and Barbie confirm their status at best picture sure things with their Ensemble nods. The Color Purple I've already discussed. The clear gainer here is American Fiction, and good for them.

Cooper, Murphy and Giamatti remain center-stage in lead actor. Wright gets a boost; Domingo, while deserving, I think remains iffy. DiCaprio's omission gives life to the "Killers actors will be left out" caucus. I think Andrew Scott has a chance of crashing the party, though it's dependent on him showing up at BAFTA.

Stone and Gladstone we never doubted. Mulligan gets a much needed vote of confidence -- though, again: Netflix. Robbie was pretty much a certainty here, but I'll remain skeptical of her AMPAS success right till the end. Portman and Barrino certainly hit a wall here, but Bening is, as noted above, a question mark. Huller I don't doubt, and I'll entertain Lee as option, as well, unless she misses BAFTA.

Supporting actor saw the most action, with Brown and Dafoe entering, Melton/Sessa taking a dive, and, most shocking, Ruffalo being omitted. Dafoe is the sort of veteran who can translate a prominent role into a SAG citation without getting carried over to AMPAS. Melton, sadly, validates my take during his critics' run: that he might turn out just a Steve Buscemi/Ghost World. Given that he literally can't show up at BAFTA, I have to consider him a deep long-shot. Ruffalo, on the other hand, has already shown up at the Oscars after missing SAG (2015), and has his film, female lead and previous nominations to qualify him under my system. This category had felt pretty locked in a few weeks ago, but so did supporting actress 2021, until nominations day, when we were Buckley/Dench-ed. We may see a similarly unexpected configuration in the final AMPAS ballot.

The biggest news in supporting actress was Penelope Cruz showing up, at last, for a role that got her major critical notice. Others who needed the same attention but were left off: Viola Davis, Rachel McAdams, Rosamund Pike (the latter, at least, can place at BAFTA). All of them, along with Julianne Moore, keep hope alive by virtue of their previous citations, but showing up here would have helped. I never expected Claire Foy here -- all her hopes ride with BAFTA -- but I will say, though I understand the power of a best picture connection, I can't fathom why Emily Blunt is so consistently chosen for, basically, one not-quite-great scene, when people like Foy or Cruz have far more elaborate and powerful roles. (ON EDIT: I obviously passed over something big: never say never, but, boy, it's hard to imagine America Ferrera getting an Oscar nomination if she missed here.)
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Sabin »

Next week the BAFTAs chime in to lend clarity but at this point we can infer how the major races are looking.

Best Actor only has three certainties: Cooper, Giamatti, and Murphy. Domingo and Wright are probably in good standing having made the BAFTA long list but it wouldn't surprise me if DiCaprio and Scott show up in their stead at the BAFTAs. DiCaprio's record of missing out on Academy Awards generally seems linked to whether he has a Best Picture contender in the race. Post-Titanic, He missed for buzzy roles like Catch Me If You Can, Revolutionary Road, and J. Edgar. The only film that bucks this trend was Blood Diamond; the dynamics of that race have been discussed for years. I'm not convinced that if DiCaprio just went full bore for The Departed that he wouldn't have ended up the nominee. Killers of the Flower Moon being a Best Picture contending film, I won't count him out. Scott is in bigger trouble. I wonder if his film just launched a little too late and with too much other competition. BAFTA could add Barry Keoghan to the mix.

Best Actress got a lot simpler now that we know that both SAG and BAFTA aren't feeling May December. Portman is probably out. The smart money is on five of the following: Bening, Gladstone, Huller, Mulligan, Robbie, and Stone. I don't know if Greta Lee is out but I suspect she had a better chance of showing up here (given her largely TV bona fides) than with BAFTA where Sandra Huller is almost assured a nomination.

This might be where Charles Melton's candidacy ended. He always had a bit of a critic's-fave-that-doesn't-cross-over vibe to him but he didn't get a SAG and hasn't made the BAFTA long list. If we go by Mister Tee's criteria, Melton doesn't have anything he needs: it doesn't appear he's in a Best Picture contending film (at least from this vantage point), he isn't paired with a leading acting contender, and he isn't a prior nominee/winner. As of today, it seems like the race is down to Brown, DaFoe, De Niro, Downey, Gosling, and Ruffalo. I'll take a moment to note that it's odd that DaFoe got a SAG nomination over Ruffalo despite Ruffalo making the long list and not DaFoe, but this goes to just how beloved in the industry DaFoe is. I suspect he's nearing Christopher Walken status of zen oddball du jour.

If we go by Mister Tee's criteria, then Brown, DaFoe, De Niro, Downey, Gosling, and Ruffalo are all in Best Picture nominees, they're all paired with leading actor contenders (De Niro possibly two; Brown's is probably the weakest odds), and all but Brown are previous nominees. Unless uncertainty over DaFoe/Ruffalo actually means something (like Hirsch triumphing over the odds-favored Dano), we're looking at a 2019 slate of all previous nominees. I'll also include Sessa who is BAFTA long-listed and unlike a few questionable cases (like Jamie Bell and Paul Mescal) he is absolutely in a Best Picture contender and paired (directly) with someone who is a leading actor contender.

Best Supporting Actress remains a muddle. Emily Blunt, Danielle Brooks, Jodie Foster, and Da'Vine Joy Randolph are all Globe & SAG nominees and BAFTA long listed. Blunt and Randolph are definitely in Best Picture contenders. Blunt, Foster, and Randolph are all paired with leading actor contenders (probably not Brooks anymore; Foster is shaky). Foster is the only previous nominee, and a two-time winner to boot. They know her. Danielle Brooks probably enjoys the benefits of being in a Best Picture contender but only slightly. If Academy voters don't share SAG enthusiasm for The Color Purple, Brooks has none of these advantages.

Beyond that, muddy muddy waters. SAG went for Penelope Cruz over the Globes' choice of Julianne Moore and Rosamund Pike. None of them are in Best Picture contenders (May December and Saltburn's fortunes could change). None of them are paired with leading actor contenders (for Pike, that could change; I suppose Portman could come out of the blue). All of them are previous nominees and winners. Cruz's chances are probably the lowest considering BAFTA didn't go for her. On the other hand, they didn't nominate her Parallel Mothers performance and that didn't stop her from showing up there. Maybe she just has a strong fanbase of voters? Watching Ferrari, I thought to myself "She has everything she needs to get nominated." Pike's role is wonderful but small. Moore is excellent (probably my choice to win) but her character and film aren't very likable.

So right now we have seven contenders. My hunch is when we look to BAFTA to clear things up, they'll only muddy it more by nominating Claire Foy and Sandra Huller. And of course, Ferrera holds an advantage of being in a Best Picture contender, but her candidacy remains a bit fluky. SAG did not nominate America Ferrara for Barbie. She's BAFTA long-listed but I would be surprised if that's the only nomination America Ferrera will get.

If I had to guess right now, I'd honestly look towards the SAG batting average. They tend to hit 15/20 of the time. In 2020, only 12 of their 20 acting nominees showed up. But most years, it's between 14-16. Penelope Cruz in Ferrari just looks like one of those nominees who doesn't make the cut.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by OscarGuy »

All of Us Strangers and Past Lives were shut out. As were Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. Dafoe makes it in over Ruffalo. DiCaprio is out. May December also blanked. Other than Poor Things and The Holdovers, was there really a more ensemble-oriented film that could have taken The Color Purple's spot?
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Reza »

Speaking of subpar how did The Color Purple manage to get nominated?

Now if it makes it to the top 10 list at the Oscars it will be pretty clear why its there.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by flipp525 »

I love Colman Domingo and obviously support openly gay actors playing gay characters but Rustin is a completely subpar “wiki-film.” He should be replaced by Andrew Scott at the Oscars.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Big Magilla »

Where did you get these?

The stunt nominations were announced on a couple of sites but nothing else. The feeds on Netflix and SAG's Instagram never went live. Very unprofessional to say the least.
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SAG Nominations

Post by Sabin »

The Color Purple is back.
DiCaprio misses out.
May December and Saltburn don't show up.


Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, Nyad
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Emma Stone, Poor Things

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple
Penelope Cruz, Ferrari
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
Barbie
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