Sijmen's Oscar Experiment

[Sabin]

Welcome back! I see the changes to the Academy hasn't messed up your system's proficiency. Cheers to forecasting nominations for Drive My Car (for Picture and Director) and for Judi Dench for Belfast. Looking forward to seeing your final predictions.

[Big Magilla]

Very impressive, Sijmen.

I went back over your previous years. The ones you missed were mostly surprises. Interesting that Bradley Cooper despite always being in the conversation did not qualify under your method in several instances. Looks like history is repeating itself for him this year.

[sijmen]

Hallo again,

some might remember me, since I used to come here daily back in the day when the internet was still fresh and innocent

I had a site once called Sijmen's Oscar Experiment, where I tried to predict the Oscar nominations with a mathematical formula, based on the precusrsos awards (The LAFA is worth 3 points, a Golden Globe Nomination 2 points, a win from the San Diego Film Critics 1,5 points, a nomination from the Guilds 4 points...)

I stopped updating my site many years ago, but I still do the experiment for my own amusement. Here are the current standings:

(Note: it's about the nominations. Being number one does not imply that that film or performer is the favourite to win.)

BEST PICTURE
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (LOCK)
2. Oppenheimer (LOCK)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (LOCK)
4. Poor Things (LOCK)
& Barbie (TIE!) (LOCK)
6. Past Lives (LOCK)
7. The Holdovers (LOCK)
8. The Zone of Interest
9. Maestro
10. May December

11. American Fiction
12. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
13. Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret.


BEST DIRECTOR
1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer (LOCK)
2. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall
3. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
5. Greta Gerwig, Barbie

6. Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
7. Celine Song, Past Lives
8. Alexander Payne, The Holdovers


BEST ACTOR
1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer (LOCK)
2. Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers
& Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon (TIE!)
4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
5. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

6. Franz Rogowski, Passages
7. Colman Domingo, Rustin


BEST ACTRESS
1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon (LOCK)
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things (LOCK)
3. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
4. Natalie Portman, May December
5. Margot Robbie, Barbie

6. Greta Lee, Past Lives & Carey Mulligan, Maestro (TIE!)


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer (LOCK)
2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie (LOCK)
3. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
4. Charles Melton, May December
5. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

6. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers (LOCK)
2. Julianne Moore, May December
3. Rachel McAdams, Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret
4. Jodie Foster, Nyad
& Rosamund Pike, Saltburn (TIE!)

6. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
7. Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Anatomy of a Fall (LOCK)
2. May December (LOCK)
3. The Holdovers (LOCK)
4. Barbie (LOCK)
5. Past Lives

6. Maestro


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. Killers of the Flower Moon (LOCK)
2. Poor Things (LOCK)
& Oppenheimer (TIE!) (LOCK)
4. The Zone of Interest
5. All of Us Strangers

6. Are You There, God? It's Me, Margaret
7. American Fiction

More about the 'Formula': http://oscarsijmen.freehostia.com/More_info.htm