Last predictions before precursors

[danfrank]

I... don't know about these.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
Taraji P. Henson — The Color Purple
Julianne Moore — May December
WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers

The original Color Purple winning zero Oscars remains one of the biggest embarrassments in Academy history, but Blitz Bazawule’s musical adaptation stands to correct that with two potential nominations in this category — one for Taraji P. Henson, a prior nominee for Benjamin Button, and Orange Is the New Black actress Danielle Brooks, who’s poised to break out on the big screen among the film’s heavy-hitting ensemble. It’s Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers, however, who’s made the biggest splash on the trail so far, scoring nominations (or wins) at every major precursor to date.

How does "two potential (non-winning) nominations" make up for the original winning zero Oscars or is the "Oscar expert from RuPaul's Drag Show" unaware that the original had 11 nominations???

That’s but one example of how this article has a talking-out-of-his-ass quality to it.

[Big Magilla]

I... don't know about these.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
Taraji P. Henson — The Color Purple
Julianne Moore — May December
WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers

The original Color Purple winning zero Oscars remains one of the biggest embarrassments in Academy history, but Blitz Bazawule’s musical adaptation stands to correct that with two potential nominations in this category — one for Taraji P. Henson, a prior nominee for Benjamin Button, and Orange Is the New Black actress Danielle Brooks, who’s poised to break out on the big screen among the film’s heavy-hitting ensemble. It’s Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers, however, who’s made the biggest splash on the trail so far, scoring nominations (or wins) at every major precursor to date.

How does "two potential (non-winning) nominations" make up for the original winning zero Oscars or is the "Oscar expert from RuPaul's Drag Show" unaware that the original had 11 nominations???

[Sabin]

I... don't know about these.

ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY'S PREDICTIONS: https://ew.com/2024-oscars-predictions- ... re-8410438

Best Picture
All of Us Strangers
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
WINNER: Killers of the Flower Moon
May December
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
As wide-open a race as ever, predicting Best Picture is solely a stats game at the moment. With stacked, cross-branch unifying power building Oppenheimer’s profile as both a crafts monolith and an actors’ dream (three cast members will likely score nods from the Academy’s largest branch), Christopher Nolan’s historical epic feels likeliest to light Oscar voters’ collective fuse — statistically, though, Killers is collecting the most hardware, making this a tight race tipping in Scorsese’s favor for reasons we’ll expand on in the Best Director bracket ahead.

Best Director
Greta Gerwig — Barbie
Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Things
Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
Alexander Payne — The Holdovers
WINNER: Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
Hardly a star-driven vehicle, Oppenheimer’s nearly $1 billion run at the global box solidifies the strength of its director’s name as a ticket-selling entity. Both audiences and industry voters value Nolan’s creative stamp equally, enough to pack theaters en masse — and celebrate his singular vision with consistent awards gold as the race unfolds. But, Scorsese’s success into his twilight years might signal the industry to rally around one of their shining beacons of talent while they still can. It wouldn’t be entirely unjustified, either, as Killers has racked up an impressive haul leading up to the more industry-leaning awards set to announce nominations soon.

Best Actor
WINNER: Bradley Cooper — Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio — Killers of the Flower Moon
Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
Maestro’s convoluted script aside, Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein (partial) biopic is an acting masterclass, with director-star Cooper giving one of the best performances of his career as the conflicted composer. The strength of Cooper’s work coupled with a long-overdue narrative (he has a whopping nine unconsummated nominations) should be enough to put him over the top this year.

Best Actress
Fantasia Barrino — The Color Purple
WINNER: Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller — Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan — Maestro
Emma Stone — Poor Things
Morphing from dawdling baby-woman to a full-on, feminist Frankenstein’s monstress, Emma Stone’s work in Poor Things is about as far a cry from her glitzy turn in La La Land as you can get. It’s bold, transformative, shocking, and sees the performer exploring uncharted places both physically and emotionally. In essence, it hooks the heart and the eyes, and that’s a winning combination for Stone in a film that has major Best Picture heat, too — but, Lily Gladstone has swept most of the precursors so far, and, statistically, she’s the one to beat at the moment. That could change once more industry-inclusive awards bodies begin to cast ballots (so far, it’s been mainly critics groups and peripheral cinephile circles voting), as Stone is a more recognizable name. But, talent is talent, and the actors could lift up Gladstone as a vital presence at the front of Scorsese’s epic drama.

Best Supporting Actor
Robert De Niro — Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer
WINNER: Ryan Gosling — Barbie
Charles Melton — May December
Mark Ruffalo — Poor Things

Given Barbie’s themes, it feels a bit cruel to predict, uh, the man behind Ken to be the sole above-the-line winner from Greta Gerwig’s industry-shaking masterwork, but his performance is certainly the biggest (and showiest) of those in contention — plus, he carries goodwill in the industry (he’s already bagged festival honors for this role) and a light overdue narrative that should be Kenough to push him into the winner’s circle.

Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
Taraji P. Henson — The Color Purple
Julianne Moore — May December
WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers

The original Color Purple winning zero Oscars remains one of the biggest embarrassments in Academy history, but Blitz Bazawule’s musical adaptation stands to correct that with two potential nominations in this category — one for Taraji P. Henson, a prior nominee for Benjamin Button, and Orange Is the New Black actress Danielle Brooks, who’s poised to break out on the big screen among the film’s heavy-hitting ensemble. It’s Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers, however, who’s made the biggest splash on the trail so far, scoring nominations (or wins) at every major precursor to date.

[danfrank]

Big Magilla wrote
Just to be clear, rape and incest were very much part of the Broadway musical which followed the book and film closely.

If they have been deleted from the film version, that is attributable to the screenwriter who adapted it.

It's probably more attributed to the producers and director.

THAT’s interesting. I haven’t seen the stage musical. We need to ask Oprah.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Just to be clear, rape and incest were very much part of the Broadway musical which followed the book and film closely.

If they have been deleted from the film version, that is attributable to the screenwriter who adapted it.

It's probably more attributed to the producers and director.

[Big Magilla]

Just to be clear, rape and incest were very much part of the Broadway musical which followed the book and film closely.

If they have been deleted from the film version, that is attributable to the screenwriter who adapted it.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
My guess is that in creating a musical they were aiming for family entertainment, where topics like rape and incest just don’t fit. That begs the question of whether the source material, where those traumas were central to understanding the Celie character (i.e., the “context”), was ever appropriate for for turning into a family-friendly musical. I would answer this with a resounding no. It turns The Color Purple, which was a powerfully moving novel, into a sort of watered-down franchise.

That's largely my question about this... how does "Hey kids! Wanna go see the Color Purple musical?" sound? How does it not flop?

On the other hand: "Hey kids! Wanna see the new Hunchback of Notre Dame movie? It's got singing gargoyles! You'll love it!"

This kinda shit has been going on forever.

[danfrank]

Cecie is too confident too early. The movie is afraid to make her look weak because modern audiences will accuse it of not being empowering or something. But that's the arc of the character.

All modern audiences who don't understand or refuse to acknowledge the term "context" should basically be told to take a hike, shot or put out to pasture. Take your pick. Most annoying.

My guess is that in creating a musical they were aiming for family entertainment, where topics like rape and incest just don’t fit. That begs the question of whether the source material, where those traumas were central to understanding the Celie character (i.e., the “context”), was ever appropriate for for turning into a family-friendly musical. I would answer this with a resounding no. It turns The Color Purple, which was a powerfully moving novel, into a sort of watered-down franchise.

[flipp525]

Big Magilla wrote
Who is Cece? The central character in The Color Purple is named Celie.

Corrected was largely copy and pasting from text.

flipp525 wrote
My friend who saw The Color Purple last Tuesday night at the NYC screening (with the cast in attendance) said that all instances of rape and incest have been pretty much deleted from the storyline. Considering how much those crimes wreak havoc on the women in both the book and 1985 film (think Oprah’s big moment as Sophia where she talks about fighting off her brothers and uncles), I don’t understand how they can be excised.

I don't either. What did your friend say about the film besides that?

Many of the things we’ve already heard. He said that Fantasia is NOT an actor and it shows. And Celie’s hardships are so downplayed (or just outright erased) in the screenplay that her characterization suffers for it. The reunion with her sister that is such an huge emotional moment in the 1985 film feels like a big “who cares?” in the musical.

Danielle Brooks big number is a real crowd-pleaser and she is wonderful in the film, however he preferred Taraji’s performance and thinks it’s better.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Who is Cece? The central character in The Color Purple is named Celie.

Corrected was largely copy and pasting from text.

flipp525 wrote
My friend who saw The Color Purple last Tuesday night at the NYC screening (with the cast in attendance) said that all instances of rape and incest have been pretty much deleted from the storyline. Considering how much those crimes wreak havoc on the women in both the book and 1985 film (think Oprah’s big moment as Sophia where she talks about fighting off her brothers and uncles), I don’t understand how they can be excised.

I don't either. What did your friend say about the film besides that?

[flipp525]

My friend who saw The Color Purple last Tuesday night at the NYC screening (with the cast in attendance) said that all instances of rape and incest have been pretty much deleted from the storyline. Considering how much those crimes wreak havoc on the women in both the book and 1985 film (think Oprah’s big moment as Sophia where she talks about fighting off her brothers and uncles), I don’t understand how they can be excised.

[Big Magilla]

Who is Cece? The central character in The Color Purple is named Celie.

Just rewatched the original last night. Though not a musical, it has lots of musical moments so extending it to a full-blown Broadway musical was not a bad idea. The problem was that the songs were mediocre. Still, the new version does have a strong cast so it could rise above its inherent limitations. I'm not convinced yet that it does, but NBR today and the Globes and Critics Choice nominations next week should give us some indication of whether it could be a significant player in the upcoming Oscar race.

[Reza]

Cecie is too confident too early. The movie is afraid to make her look weak because modern audiences will accuse it of not being empowering or something. But that's the arc of the character.

All modern audiences who don't understand or refuse to acknowledge the term "context" should basically be told to take a hike, shot or put out to pasture. Take your pick. Most annoying.

[Sabin]

My film critic buddy just watched The Color Purple and basically said it's fine. Spielberg's 1985 film was an emotional weepie for better or worse. This one is more workmanlike. The biggest problem in his opinion is that The Color Purple just doesn't need to be a musical and this one just has some of the worst tendencies of Broadway. Just grinds to a halt for the numbers. Celie is too confident too early. The movie is afraid to make her look weak because modern audiences will accuse it of not being empowering or something. But that's the arc of the character.

He doesn't think there are any real standout performances. Brooks has enough for a nomination. Nobody's bad but nobody's great. He thinks it could get nominated if it's not a flop but it's no sure thing.

His predictions right now would be:
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Iron Claw
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things

[Sabin]

My film critic buddy just saw The Iron Claw and said it's terrific and a contender.

EDIT:
-he said it's like a mix of The Wrestler and The Fighter but much better than both films in his opinion. He was mildly positive on both films.
-he didn't offer any acting standouts for a nomination but he did mention Lily James being quite good. He said that Zac Efron isn't revelatory but it's easily the best thing he's done. Harris Dickinson is apparently quite good as well.
-he said he was almost brought to tears more than once.
-he said it's fascinating as a Sean Durkin film because like Martha Marcy May Marlene it's about a cult in many ways.
-he said it's about toxic masculinity in a way but in a way that he thinks men will really respond to because these men are trapped in habit and ritual beyond their control.
-he said it forced him to think about the world of wrestling like he's never seen before. On one instance, someone falls out of the ring and they assume he's just acting like he's hurt but in reality the guy got hurt. It forced him to consider that this must happen constantly. So it finds new material in the apparently rich text of professional wrestling.

He says the only hurdle for Academy voters should only be whether they see it. If they see it, he has a hard time imagining they won't respond to it. I'm adding it to my predictions.