What keeps me from jumping on the bandwagon of CODA snatching Best Picture from THE POWER OF THE DOG is the lack of Editing nomination, even more than the missing Directing nom. In the previous decade, two films have won the top prize without a corresponding Directing nom, but in that same period only one film has won without an Editing nom. CODA was not made to look like a single take so it missing out in this category is even more glaring.OscarGuy wrote:I just had a thought and now I'm bothered by it. If CODA takes both Adapted Screenplay and Picture, it could be the first time in decades that the winner for Best Directing didn't bring in a single other award for their film. It happened 5 times in the first decade, but since then, it only happened twice. Matter of fact, the last time a director's film won fewer than 3 awards was Born on the Fourth of July back in 1989. That just seems wrong to me. You directed a great film, but it wasn't the best of any other category.
The only thing that gives me hope is the BAFTA result. There was no CODA and only 5 nominees and no preferential balloting (unless they changed to that and I don't remember). The film managed the top vote on at least 21% of the ballots. I know it's not instructive, but that only time SAG and PGA agreed, but differed from DGA was before BAFTA switched to before the Oscars. BAFTA went for The Queen, not Little Miss Sunshine or The Departed. Since BAFTA even went for Power of the Dog over homegrown Belfast is heartening.
Maybe GREEN BOOK could have won even if it had been snubbed by the Editing branch, but I would say that film is more slickly edited than CODA. While I still believe homophobia had a role in the defeat of BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, I have also allowed myself to believe the lack of an Editing nomination was at least somewhat a factor. We will see how true that is since 2021's gay cowboy movie has its precious Editing nom. Will it be enough to beat the little social issue movie this time?