PGA Nominations

[rolotomasi99]

I just had a thought and now I'm bothered by it. If CODA takes both Adapted Screenplay and Picture, it could be the first time in decades that the winner for Best Directing didn't bring in a single other award for their film. It happened 5 times in the first decade, but since then, it only happened twice. Matter of fact, the last time a director's film won fewer than 3 awards was Born on the Fourth of July back in 1989. That just seems wrong to me. You directed a great film, but it wasn't the best of any other category.

The only thing that gives me hope is the BAFTA result. There was no CODA and only 5 nominees and no preferential balloting (unless they changed to that and I don't remember). The film managed the top vote on at least 21% of the ballots. I know it's not instructive, but that only time SAG and PGA agreed, but differed from DGA was before BAFTA switched to before the Oscars. BAFTA went for The Queen, not Little Miss Sunshine or The Departed. Since BAFTA even went for Power of the Dog over homegrown Belfast is heartening.

What keeps me from jumping on the bandwagon of CODA snatching Best Picture from THE POWER OF THE DOG is the lack of Editing nomination, even more than the missing Directing nom. In the previous decade, two films have won the top prize without a corresponding Directing nom, but in that same period only one film has won without an Editing nom. CODA was not made to look like a single take so it missing out in this category is even more glaring.

Maybe GREEN BOOK could have won even if it had been snubbed by the Editing branch, but I would say that film is more slickly edited than CODA. While I still believe homophobia had a role in the defeat of BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, I have also allowed myself to believe the lack of an Editing nomination was at least somewhat a factor. We will see how true that is since 2021's gay cowboy movie has its precious Editing nom. Will it be enough to beat the little social issue movie this time?

[OscarGuy]

I just had a thought and now I'm bothered by it. If CODA takes both Adapted Screenplay and Picture, it could be the first time in decades that the winner for Best Directing didn't bring in a single other award for their film. It happened 5 times in the first decade, but since then, it only happened twice. Matter of fact, the last time a director's film won fewer than 3 awards was Born on the Fourth of July back in 1989. That just seems wrong to me. You directed a great film, but it wasn't the best of any other category.

The only thing that gives me hope is the BAFTA result. There was no CODA and only 5 nominees and no preferential balloting (unless they changed to that and I don't remember). The film managed the top vote on at least 21% of the ballots. I know it's not instructive, but that only time SAG and PGA agreed, but differed from DGA was before BAFTA switched to before the Oscars. BAFTA went for The Queen, not Little Miss Sunshine or The Departed. Since BAFTA even went for Power of the Dog over homegrown Belfast is heartening.

BTW, if you're curious, here are all of the instances of the Best Directed film winning 3 or fewer awards (note not formatted or edited, was just trying to get the information written down quickly).

Two Arabian Knights - 1
7th Heaven - 3
The Divine Lady - 1
All Quiet - 2
Skippy - 1
Bad Girl - 2
Cavalcade - 3
Mr. Deeds - 1
Awful Truth - 1
You Can't - 2
Grapes of Wrath - 2
Casablanca - 3
Gentleman's - 3
Treasure of the Sierra Madre - 3
Letter to Three Wives - 2
Quiet Man - 2
Giant - 1
Graduate - 1
Midnight Cowboy - 3
Rocky - 3
Reds - 3
Born on the Fourth of July - 2
The Pianist - 3
Brokeback - 3
The Revenant - 3
Roma - 3
Nomadland - 3

[Big Magilla]

OscarGuy wrote
C) Crash is not the least bit like CODA. CODA, for all its faults, isn't a film about prejudice specifically as far as I'm aware. Crash and Green Book were superficial explorations written and directed by white guys.

I mean, CODA de-stigmatizes a deaf family for audiences.

There is specifically a scene where the son gets into a brawl with an asshole who is making fun of his deafness and signing. There is a whole subplot about the dad losing his fishing license due to him and the son not hearing the coast guard radioing them. They even gave Marlee Matlin a "reverse discrimination" scene when she bad mouths the hearing wives of the fisherman.

It was not all about bigotry like CRASH, but fighting prejudice and stereotyping was certainly a part of CODA. Unfortunately, it did not handle it with any depth or nuance...much like CRASH.

I'm not getting this one.

I didn't know deaf families were stigmatized. Mind you, the deaf people I've known were part of hearing families and were integrated into their family and social lives although they did have deaf friends.

Interestingly, Marlee Matlin got her start in a 1985 Chicago stage production of Children of a Lesser God starring Paul Raci in an award-winning performance. Maci, who is himself a CODA, is a legally certified sign language interpreter who has spent most of his career in theatrical productions for the deaf. He was an Oscar nominee last year for the superior Sound of Metal, which was my second favorite film of the year behind Minari. I wonder if he had won, would Troy Kotsur even be in the running this year or would they have seen him as a "been there, done that" type of guy? By the same token, will a truly superior film with deaf actors in the next few years fall victim to the "been there, done that" syndrome?

[rolotomasi99]

I could have sworn it was Jack, but maybe I was confusing Jack and Ernie.

I remember reading articles right after that fateful Oscar night where Jack told the press backstage that he voted for BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN. My Googling did not reveal any surviving articles online from 2006 with that quote, but there are many retrospective pieces on the Best Picture upset that mentions Jack's support for the film. It is even in his IMDB trivia page.

In terms of the most definitive source, writer Diana Ossana says Jack came up to her after the Best Picture loss to tell her he voted for her film.

[rolotomasi99]

OscarGuy wrote
C) Crash is not the least bit like CODA. CODA, for all its faults, isn't a film about prejudice specifically as far as I'm aware. Crash and Green Book were superficial explorations written and directed by white guys.

I mean, CODA de-stigmatizes a deaf family for audiences.

There is specifically a scene where the son gets into a brawl with an asshole who is making fun of his deafness and signing. There is a whole subplot about the dad losing his fishing license due to him and the son not hearing the coast guard radioing them. They even gave Marlee Matlin a "reverse discrimination" scene when she bad mouths the hearing wives of the fisherman.

It was not all about bigotry like CRASH, but fighting prejudice and stereotyping was certainly a part of CODA. Unfortunately, it did not handle it with any depth or nuance...much like CRASH.

[OscarGuy]

I could have sworn it was Jack, but maybe I was confusing Jack and Ernie.

[taki15]

Jack Nicholson admitted voting for Brokeback Mountain at a press interview after presenting best picture

He probably meant Ernest Borgnine.

[Big Magilla]

I don't recall Jack Nicholson having said anything against Brokeback Mountain. The biggest dissenters were Tony Curtis and Ernest Borgnine.

Aside from Sam Elliott, I haven't heard anyone with name recognition complain about the gay content in The Power of the Dog. Most complaints I've heard were that it was slow, dull, or difficult to figure out. Some of those complainants have also said "it's no Brokeback Mountain".

[mlrg]

Only once before, in the short history of SAG, have SAG and PGA agreed, but disagreed with DGA. <em>Little Miss Sunshine</em>, as Tee pointed out, was that film. If Green Book hadn't won so recently, I might have suggested that the trendline of Best Picture was to the arty side rather than the superficial side.

The one big difference I see between 2005 and now is that A) the Academy membership has almost doubled in that amount of time, with a lot of younger, more progressive choices being brought in; B) the loudest voices against Brokeback Mountain at the time were Tony Curtis and Jack Nicholson, both legends. Who's really come out against Power of the Dog? Sam Elliott? Hardly a legend; C) Crash is not the least bit like CODA. CODA, for all its faults, isn't a film about prejudice specifically as far as I'm aware. Crash and Green Book were superficial explorations written and directed by white guys.

A win by CODA wouldn't serve the same purpose as Crash back then. I could see King Richard or Belfast or West Side Story fitting that mold better, with Belfast the most likely to fit the Crash mold, though an infinitely better film than that 2005 piece of crap.

The only hope I hold out is that it's now preferential balloting and that's what helped Moonlight overcome unstoppable juggernaut La La Land.

Jack Nicholson admitted voting for Brokeback Mountain at a press interview after presenting best picture

[Sabin]

OscarGuy wrote
C) Crash is not the least bit like CODA. CODA, for all its faults, isn't a film about prejudice specifically as far as I'm aware. Crash and Green Book were superficial explorations written and directed by white guys.

I mean, CODA de-stigmatizes a deaf family for audiences.

[OscarGuy]

Only once before, in the short history of SAG, have SAG and PGA agreed, but disagreed with DGA. <em>Little Miss Sunshine</em>, as Tee pointed out, was that film. If Green Book hadn't won so recently, I might have suggested that the trendline of Best Picture was to the arty side rather than the superficial side.

The one big difference I see between 2005 and now is that A) the Academy membership has almost doubled in that amount of time, with a lot of younger, more progressive choices being brought in; B) the loudest voices against Brokeback Mountain at the time were Tony Curtis and Jack Nicholson, both legends. Who's really come out against Power of the Dog? Sam Elliott? Hardly a legend; C) Crash is not the least bit like CODA. CODA, for all its faults, isn't a film about prejudice specifically as far as I'm aware. Crash and Green Book were superficial explorations written and directed by white guys.

A win by CODA wouldn't serve the same purpose as Crash back then. I could see King Richard or Belfast or West Side Story fitting that mold better, with Belfast the most likely to fit the Crash mold, though an infinitely better film than that 2005 piece of crap.

The only hope I hold out is that it's now preferential balloting and that's what helped Moonlight overcome unstoppable juggernaut La La Land.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
1) A whole lot of people have jumped to "It's TOTALLY winning", without considering that the AMPAS body has changed in the past half-decade in ways that the Guilds have not. Or that The Power of the Dog did better in the Oscar nominations than it did anywhere else -- meaning, it's not impossible Campion's movie also does better next Sunday than people are assuming, and this CODA boom turns out a mirage.

I have no comment. Time will tell.

Mister Tee wrote
2) I mentioned it down below: Little Miss Sunshine had almost the exact same Guild run, winning SAG, PGA, WGA (the latter, I assume, will happen tonight). There were a whole bunch of people here certain it would win best picture that year, despite its shortfall in important Oscar categories (director and editing; sound familiar?). Spoiler alert: it didn't happen.

You're right. But here's a comment that's a waste of time because we don't know: we don't know that it wouldn't have won in a ranked ballot. And I'm not just saying this because I predicted Little Miss Sunshine back in 2006 and I like the idea of being retroactively sort of right.

Mister Tee wrote
3) However: I always thought Power of the Dog had a bit too much of an art tinge to sweep through the Oscars. I felt the same about Roma, and that turned out prescient. But I also felt the same about Nomadland, and that won best picture regardless. These awards could be poised on a razor's edge, and where they end up one year or another are not conclusive about all future races.

Same about resisting Nomadland until the very end. I could write a lot about the differences I see between Nomadland and The Power of the Dog, but at the end of the day, I remember looking around last year's Oscar season for ANYTHING that could beat Nomadland and ultimately couldn't find anything. This season, I did the same in a minor key for anything that could beat The Power of the Dog... and we've certainly found something.

Mister Tee wrote
4) As far as "why didn't CODA soar prior to the nominations?": Remember Sling Blade? On nominations day, most people had never heard of the movie. 6 weeks later, thanks to Harvey's masterly campaign, Billy Bob was beloved, and he won a screenplay prize that had seemed like it'd be the easiest pick-up of The English Patient's landslide. Films can hit late. (Though I don't assume this means it would have done any better nominations-wise if this happened earlier. It may be it reached its level, and we're now overstating its potential reach.)

I'm very happy to play this game: in retrospect, I have no difficulty believing that Sling Blade could've elbowed past Secrets and Lies for a Best Picture nomination. Let's not forget, it managed a Best Ensemble Cast nomination over Fargo and Jerry Maguire. We're looking at a historically weird Best Picture race.

[Mister Tee]

I didn’t write that.

Sorry; didn't realized I'd deleted too few brackets from my quote. I knew you didn't write it. Fixed now, for the benefit of everyone else.

[Sabin]

I didn’t write that.

[Mister Tee]

I hate hate hated Licorice Pizza, too, which I imagine most people who came of age before or during the 1970s would. Our lives were nothing like those depicted in the film which is not a true representation of the times. Maybe for spoiled L.A. area brats, but no-one else..

Sorry, but this is just generalizing your reaction out to a generation, without consulting them for their actual opinion. I turned 18 in 1970, which I think puts me in the demographic you reference, and I loved most of the movie. So have most people I know my age. Feel free to have your take on the movie, but don't speak for all of us.

A few things about CODA:

1) A whole lot of people have jumped to "It's TOTALLY winning", without considering that the AMPAS body has changed in the past half-decade in ways that the Guilds have not. Or that The Power of the Dog did better in the Oscar nominations than it did anywhere else -- meaning, it's not impossible Campion's movie also does better next Sunday than people are assuming, and this CODA boom turns out a mirage.

2) I mentioned it down below: Little Miss Sunshine had almost the exact same Guild run, winning SAG, PGA, WGA (the latter, I assume, will happen tonight). There were a whole bunch of people here certain it would win best picture that year, despite its shortfall in important Oscar categories (director and editing; sound familiar?). Spoiler alert: it didn't happen.

3) However: I always thought Power of the Dog had a bit too much of an art tinge to sweep through the Oscars. I felt the same about Roma, and that turned out prescient. But I also felt the same about Nomadland, and that won best picture regardless. These awards could be poised on a razor's edge, and where they end up one year or another are not conclusive about all future races.

4) As far as "why didn't CODA soar prior to the nominations?": Remember Sling Blade? On nominations day, most people had never heard of the movie. 6 weeks later, thanks to Harvey's masterly campaign, Billy Bob was beloved, and he won a screenplay prize that had seemed like it'd be the easiest pick-up of The English Patient's landslide. Films can hit late. (Though I don't assume this means it would have done any better nominations-wise if this happened earlier. It may be it reached its level, and we're now overstating its potential reach.)