Overall Globes Takes

[Sabin]

rollotomasi99 wrote
I would also point out anti-Asian racism is in the news right now, and California-based voters might be particularly sensitive to how important MINARI is. I would not count Youn Yuh-jung out just yet.

I think that Minari might actually end up being the favorite to win the SAG Ensemble Award.

You could certainly be right about Youn Yuh-jung. I remain skeptical about her chances of winning. But I'm going to see Minari in the next day or so.

[Sabin]

MaxWilder wrote
The last rapid repeat winner, Mahershala Ali, won for best picture winners both times. The Father still feels like a paper contender. I can’t see Colman winning again for it.

Hillbilly Elegy is not a movie that people win Oscars for, but no one is under the illusion that Glenn Close is winning for anything but her past work. Until a compelling alternative emerges (it’s not Jodie Foster), I’m sticking with this sad choice.

The previous repeat winner, Christopher Waltz, was a sole winner in 2009 and his film also won Best Original Screenplay in 2012. The Father is definitely on the bubble as a Best Picture contender. But... y'know, so was Django Unchained.

I want to be clear: I'm not saying that Glenn Close isn't going to win for Hillbilly Elegy. I just wanted to point something out that very few people have considered:
- SAG hasn't voted yet. They are one of the two groups of voters that overlap with the Academy.
- BAFTA hasn't either. They overlap as well. They're also British, they have a tendency to vote for their own, and they are very likely to choose Olivia Colman, which means:
- Of the two most meaningful awards to forecast an acting win, Olivia Colman is very likely to win one of them.

Glenn Close's best chance is if voters just say "Fuck it" and write her name down. That can happen. It's certainly not a compelling narrative but it can work. I'd just like to throw out that the two reasons why Olivia Colman won last time: 1) voters saw her film, and 2) voters liked her more. If more voters see The Father than Hillbilly Elegy and if voters just clearly think she's better, it could happen again. Hollywood *REALLY* likes her right now.

[rolotomasi99]

I haven't seen Minari yet. I'm sure Youn Yuh-jung could win but the Academy rarely honors performances in other languages, let alone from people they've never seen before. They might have seen Marion Cotillard or Roberto Benigni in passing but they haven't seen Young Yuh-jung. Why didn't anyone from the cast of Parasite get a nomination? Because voters literally didn't think they were giving performances. They just saw them as "The Characters." Steven Yeun is different because they've seen him elsewhere.

Like you I have not seen MINARI yet, but I think Youn Yuh-jung is in as good a position to win as any of the other likely nominees. Only four Asian actors have won Oscars. Two (Yul Brynner and Ben Kingsley) were well respected (if not movie star famous) stage and screen actors winning for well-known roles. The other two (Haing S Ngor and Miyoshi Umeki) were not only unknown but had never acted before.

Youn Yuh-jung may be completely unfamiliar to the majority of Academy voters but her career goes all the way back to the 60s. I think if people like her performance and they feel it is their only chance to reward the movie that night, we could see her winning in a category with no clear front runner.

I would also point out anti-Asian racism is in the news right now, and California-based voters might be particularly sensitive to how important MINARI is. I would not count Youn Yuh-jung out just yet.

[MaxWilder]

The last rapid repeat winner, Mahershala Ali, won for best picture winners both times. The Father still feels like a paper contender. I can’t see Colman winning again for it.

Hillbilly Elegy is not a movie that people win Oscars for, but no one is under the illusion that Glenn Close is winning for anything but her past work. Until a compelling alternative emerges (it’s not Jodie Foster), I’m sticking with this sad choice.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
Just watched it. It's a black comedy in the same vein as, but inferior to, Promising Young Woman. Pike would not have won if she were up against Mulligan at the Globes but she was the best of the nominees in her category last night.

When it was announced that the filmmakers were pushing Promising Young Woman for Drama, I thought they were blowing an opportunity to slamdunk win Best Film and Actress in Comedy or Musical... and now I'm sure of it.

Big Magilla wrote
I don't get this Close-Colman fixation. Colman has no chance without Hopkins and he's not winning. Close's competition is Youn who should win on merit, but it's too soon to call.

I guess it's just there's no reason to say that Colman has no chance without Hopkins winning. Oscar voting doesn't work like that and it never has. They don't pair up winners together. We don't know how The Father is going to play. Who knows if it gets into Best Picture. Maybe not. But again: Hillbilly Elegy has a 25% on Rotten Tomatoes. I'll say it again: the only films with RT scores that low that get Oscar nominations are usually in the Best Makeup category. It's awful. And Glenn Close doesn't really get to do anything good until the second half of the film. Her best chance is if people just say "Fuck it, here" and vote for her sight-unseen.

I haven't seen Minari yet. I'm sure Youn Yuh-jung could win but the Academy rarely honors performances in other languages, let alone from people they've never seen before. They might have seen Marion Cotillard or Roberto Benigni in passing but they haven't seen Young Yuh-jung. Why didn't anyone from the cast of Parasite get a nomination? Because voters literally didn't think they were giving performances. They just saw them as "The Characters." Steven Yeun is different because they've seen him elsewhere.

The reason Olivia Colman makes sense is because: 1) she's British, 2) Hollywood is currently obsessed with her, 3) she has a dominant role in her (probably) well-liked film, 4) she has a SAG and a Globe nomination, and she will likely win a BAFTA because she's Olivia Colman, and 5) there's nothing wacky about her win other than she just recently won.

- Hillbilly Elegy has a 25% on Rotten Tomatoes, it's conservative, and people hate it.
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm is a silly comedy and they've never seen Maria Bakalova before (unlike Marisa Tomei whom they had).
- Amanda Seyfried didn't get a SAG nomination and she's basically gone for the second half of Mank.
- They've never seen Youn Yuh-jung before which matters.

There's less wackiness to Ellen Burstyn and Jodie Foster's performance except that they haven't picked up thus far the requisite precursors for a win. But who knows? Regina King won without a SAG or a BAFTA.

[Big Magilla]

Big Magilla wrote
I think Andra Day is now a better bet for the fifth Best Actress slot than Sophia Loren or Michelle Pfeiffer, but Rosalind Pike's win probably doesn't give her much of an advantage.

I wouldn't count out Rosamund Pike. Her film is getting seen a lot right now. I haven't seen it myself but she's in the Academy's club and if voters forget about Pieces of a Woman maybe she's the beneficiary.

Just watched it. It's a black comedy in the same vein as, but inferior to, Promising Young Woman. Pike would not have won if she were up against Mulligan at the Globes but she was the best of the nominees in her category last night.

Big Magilla wrote
I've been convinced for a while that Close, Colman, Seyfried and Yuh-jung Youn would be four of Oscar's five nominees for supporting actress, but wasn't convinced that either Ellen Burstyn or Maria Bakalova would make it to the fifth slot. I think Jodie Foster just might.

I'm not convinced that anyone besides Olivia Colman is getting in.

But I'll float an interesting scenario. Let's say Jodie Foster doesn't make the final lineup, which is entirely likely.

We'll go into the SAG voting period where they will get to choose their winner. I would say Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy is a likely choice.

We obviously don't know who the BAFTAs will nominate but it seems very likely they give their award to Olivia Colman for The Father because why wouldn't they?

We have Glenn Close vs. Olivia Colman all over again.

I don't get this Close-Colman fixation. Colman has no chance without Hopkins and he's not winning. Close's competition is Youn who should win on merit, but it's too soon to call.

[anonymous1980]

Some random thoughts!

- Technically difficulties aside, I actually liked the way they gave out the awards. I love that there are reaction shots. I also like the bits where the nominees talk to each other as they are going into commercial.

- Whoah. Those were some crazy winners! Andra Day! Jodie Foster! Are either of them this year's Aaron Taylor-Johnson? It seems like the Globes are following the beat of their own drum this year.

- Even though it's a Zoom socially distanced Globes, they still managed to have some inspiring, moving (Chadwick Boseman's wife) as well as some funny speeches.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
I think Andra Day is now a better bet for the fifth Best Actress slot than Sophia Loren or Michelle Pfeiffer, but Rosalind Pike's win probably doesn't give her much of an advantage.

I wouldn't count out Rosamund Pike. Her film is getting seen a lot right now. I haven't seen it myself but she's in the Academy's club and if voters forget about Pieces of a Woman maybe she's the beneficiary.

Big Magilla wrote
I've been convinced for a while that Close, Colman, Seyfried and Yuh-jung Youn would be four of Oscar's five nominees for supporting actress, but wasn't convinced that either Ellen Burstyn or Maria Bakalova would make it to the fifth slot. I think Jodie Foster just might.

I'm not convinced that anyone besides Olivia Colman is getting in.

But I'll float an interesting scenario. Let's say Jodie Foster doesn't make the final lineup, which is entirely likely.

We'll go into the SAG voting period where they will get to choose their winner. I would say Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy is a likely choice.

We obviously don't know who the BAFTAs will nominate but it seems very likely they give their award to Olivia Colman for The Father because why wouldn't they?

We have Glenn Close vs. Olivia Colman all over again.

[Big Magilla]

On the TV side, I got John Boyega and the four wins for The Crown right, but everything else wrong. I thought The Great would win for Comedy and Small Axe for limited series or TV film.

On the film side, I was pleasantly surprised to see Nomadland win. I expected Promising Young Woman to win, but thought after the screenplay win that it might go to The Trial of the Chicago 7. After Mulligan's loss, I was convinced that the Sorkin film would win.

I think Andra Day is now a better bet for the fifth Best Actress slot than Sophia Loren or Michelle Pfeiffer, but Rosalind Pike's win probably doesn't give her much of an advantage.

I've been convinced for a while that Close, Colman, Seyfried and Yuh-jung Youn would be four of Oscar's five nominees for supporting actress, but wasn't convinced that either Ellen Burstyn or Maria Bakalova would make it to the fifth slot. I think Jodie Foster just might.

Nothing changes in the male acting categories with Boseman and Kaluuya almost certain now to win their categories.

[Sabin]

I would argue we learned one thing that we didn't know before: Daniel Kaluuya is probably going to win Best Supporting Actor for Judas and the Black Messiah. This category has a strong habit of forecasting the eventual winner, 8 of the last 10 times. And both times they failed, the winner wasn't up for a SAG Award. This is a great award for big, scene-stealing roles, as well as second leads. Sasha Baron Cohen and Leslie Odom Jr. are part of big ensembles. Like Brad Pitt in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Mahershala Ali in Green Book, Daniel Kaluuya could reasonably be pushed for Best Actor. Unlike Cohen and Odom Jr, he's a recent nominee. All these things look to be in his favor.

As for the rest of the night, one thing is certain: we are not going to see these winners appear back on stage again and again. Oh, a few are likely: Chloe Zhao, Aaron Sorkin, Chadwick Boseman's wife. But we are unlikely to see Sasha Baron Cohen (for Borat), Andra Day, Rosamund Pike, or Jodie Foster again. So, we will turn to SAG and BAFTA for answers this season, which given SAG's tendency to embrace diverse projects and BAFTA's all-but total aversion to such projects, we might end up with a few categories that are real surprises up until the last moment, including Best Picture.

Why are we complaining?

Mank is the first nomination leader to go home empty-handed since Carol (5). The last time a movie with six or more went home empty-handed was The Godfather: Part III (7). My continuing question of "No seriously, do they like this fucking thing?" continues.

Another "No seriously, do they like this fucking thing?" goes to The Trial of the Chicago 7. It's up for Best Ensemble, Supporting Actor, and Stunt Ensemble (?). Should retire that last award btw? If there was one group that was going to go bananas for The Trial of the Chicago 7, wouldn't it be this group? Aaron Sorkin has been nominated for Best Screenplay seven times since 1995 (including this year). He's won three times, once when his film wasn't even up for Best Drama (Steve Jobs). They clearly love this guy. Maybe they just loved Nomadland more and in hindsight the idea of somebody competing against Daniel Kaluuya is foolish. But today I ask again: "No seriously, do they like this fucking thing?"

[Mister Tee]

Baseline response: because circumstances worked against an iron-clad agenda being set, the Globe voters acted as of old, voting their whims. The result was more surprises than in many a year.

Second reaction: Maybe they took to heart the accusations of racial blindness, because they ended up making it the blackest Globes ever, with Boseman, Day and Kaluuya winning three of the biggest four acting prizes. And John Boyega besides.

I was correct that Borat wouldn't run the table, but I'd have never expected Bakalova to be the odd woman out.

I did say, in my ruminations, that the Musical/Comedy Actress category reminded me of the year Paul Giamatti won for Barney's Version, and they chose a just-as-out-there winner.

Diane Warren rules the Globes! And still will likely crap out at the Oscars.

It's possible not one of the three female acting winners will get nominations from AMPAS.

The Globes usually go with new shows, but evidently The Crown is an exception.