Campaign 2020

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OscarGuy
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by OscarGuy »

To be fair to Warren, she did eventually come out with the actual tax plan for funding M4A. The problem is that we're very early in the process. You know who STILL hasn't, in 4 years, found a way to explain how he would pay for any of his proposals? Bernie Sanders. I don't hear us taking him to task so forcefully for the same thing. From the beginning, Warren's plans were always more concrete and credible then Sanders even if they weren't nitty-gritty detailed? No politician offers up concrete plans at this point. It takes time for people to show their math. That Warren took a couple of months to show hers is at least commendable since it's a challenging issue and not a single one of her male competitors has done the same thing. Not Biden (who really doesn't have much of a platform it seems). Not Sanders (who has all sorts of stuff, but no plans). Not Buttegieg. Why are we expecting 100% more effort from Warren than any of these guys? This is a rhetorical question, because we all know the answer.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Sonic Youth wrote
She's still my candidate, but I've been very disheartened with her these past couple of weeks, especially considering how flawless her campaigning has been up until now. For such a savvy politician, I'm astonished she doesn't realise how deceitful she comes across whenever she dodges the tax question. And she needs to be less dismissive of the fact that there are lots of people who simply want to keep their plans. She's proposing a mammoth undertaking, and it needs to handled delicately so that people can gradually warm up to it. She's really whiffed this issue.
I like Elizabeth Warren a lot. I am concerned that this is a pattern for her. Had she just come out and said “Yes, if we did this there would be a tax increase.” we could’ve just moved on. But she thought it would be politically advantageous to find a way to support M4A without a middle class tax increase, and she found it. It just takes eleven minutes to explain. How is that a win? Same thing as using a DNA test to prove she’s right about having 0.005% (or something) Native American ancestry. She chooses routes that make her seem evasive and I am concerned that she creates problems for herself. That is a terrible habit for a candidate, a President, and especially somebody who has to debate Trump.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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OscarGuy wrote: Bloomberg filed in, I believe it was Alabama, because the primary deadline was passing. If he were planning a third-party run, he wouldn't have to file this early as that deadline is next year. Further, he wouldn't be running if he didn't think centrist Biden were in a tailspin (which he isn't, contrary to popular opinions).
The third party question relates to what Bloomberg will or won't do if he doesn't win the Democratic primary.

Two interesting new polls:

1) Bloomberg comes in sixth behind Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg and one other (Harris?) and beats Trump 43-37 with 20% undecided. Not exactly an indication that anyone is waiting for him with baited breath.

2) In Michigan, Biden beats Warren but in Wisconsin Warren beats Biden. Trump only needs to lose one.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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OscarGuy wrote:A couple of points. Someone at another site posited, and I think it's a valid postulation that Elizabeth Warren KNOWS Medicare for All wouldn't pass the Senate, but as an opening gambit, doesn't it make "public option" a much more appealing alternative?
What it does is it makes a different candidate a more appealing alternative to a potential voter. What you're saying is fine if she's bringing the proposal, as a senator, to the senate floor. That's not what she's doing. She's making Medicare for All her signature promise as a presidential candidate. If she compromises, the left will feel betrayed and everyone will think she's untrustworthy.

She's still my candidate, but I've been very disheartened with her these past couple of weeks, especially considering how flawless her campaigning has been up until now. For such a savvy politician, I'm astonished she doesn't realise how deceitful she comes across whenever she dodges the tax question. And she needs to be less dismissive of the fact that there are lots of people who simply want to keep their plans. She's proposing a mammoth undertaking, and it needs to handled delicately so that people can gradually warm up to it. She's really whiffed this issue.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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A couple of points. Someone at another site posited, and I think it's a valid postulation that Elizabeth Warren KNOWS Medicare for All wouldn't pass the Senate, but as an opening gambit, doesn't it make "public option" a much more appealing alternative? The problem we've come across in recent years is that there are only extremes and no middle ground, there's no compromise. Dems don't mind compromising because they know that's how government is supposed to work, Republicans simply don't. There's merit in this idea and I suspect that if she can sell that current employer contributions could pay for most of health care while employees lower their contribution amounts, it might sound like a win to everyone. Corps aren't out more money because they already put in the money, but the regular working stiffs get money in the bank.

The other is that Bloomberg filed in, I believe it was Alabama, because the primary deadline was passing. If he were planning a third-party run, he wouldn't have to file this early as that deadline is next year. Further, he wouldn't be running if he didn't think centrist Biden were in a tailspin (which he isn't, contrary to popular opinions).
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Mister Tee wrote:I think Elizabeth Warren made a VERY big mistake early on: thinking that polling support for Medicare-for-all meant "throw out everything we have now", rather than "Medicare for anyone who wants to sign on to it, everyone else can stay where they are".
If this was tried, the insurance companies would still fund massive scare campaigns against it, unless the "Medicare for anyone who wants it" premiums were so high that no one would want it.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Mister Tee wrote
(Aside: Sabin, were you being sarcastic, or do you truly wonder why Biden has such support from African-Americans? Because the answer rhymes with Warack Shobama.)
You're referring to this quote:
He has strong support among African-Americans for some reason.
Oh, I get it. I was referring to his more problematic record which he mystifyingly refuses to just apologize for so we can move on.

In a more recent post, I described Mike Bloomberg as "Joe Biden with no grassroots support, working class appeal, or support from African-Americans." I know there's more that separates him which is why I also referred to him as a "warmthless Jewish billionaire."

Mister Tee wrote
And, second hot take: any one of them could beat Trump. No one is unelectable. Ask the Carter team, who rejoiced in 1980 when Reagan got the nomination, since everyone knew he was another Goldwater. Thinking the Dems are doomed if they don't nominate someone from the mushy middle is Beltway conventional wisdom that's based on basically nothing.
I had a similar conversation with a friend today who was terrified that we had a terrible group of candidates. I then reminded him of our 2004 Starting Lineup.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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It's remarkable, the degree to which aging white billionaires seem to feel it's their perspective that's missing from the conversation.

Nate Silver has already pinpointed Bloomberg's big problem: the niche to which he caters -- mostly socially liberal (except on crime) but don't raise my taxes -- is literally the smallest in existence, especially in a Democratic primary. But it does represent a strong percentage of NY/DC media types, so you can bet he'll get ten times the coverage he deserves.

I think Elizabeth Warren made a VERY big mistake early on: thinking that polling support for Medicare-for-all meant "throw out everything we have now", rather than "Medicare for anyone who wants to sign on to it, everyone else can stay where they are". Current, more nuanced polling clearly shows the latter is where most Americans are, and it's not like Warren couldn't slowly realign herself in that direction. Instead, she seems to be doubling down on her initial position, and it's undercut her otherwise significant (and surprising, to me) intra-party polling.

We're in a weird spot right now: Biden continues to hold the top spot in most primary polling, yet is widely perceived to be crashing. Buttigieg is within a point or two of Harris in overall polling, yet he's described as surging while her obituary's been written by Politico.

Hot take: it's not only early, it's still pre-season. Biden's lead has been solid, but unimpressive -- 30-ish % is what Howard Dean had in late 2003, and we know where that went. (Aside: Sabin, were you being sarcastic, or do you truly wonder why Biden has such support from African-Americans? Because the answer rhymes with Warack Shobama.) Until actual voters weigh in, this is all sophistry, and many recent election cycles have shown massive swings in a week's time. (Sometimes multiple swings: in 2008, Obama shocked everyone by winning IA, then, a week later, Hillary shocked everyone by winning NH.) Any of half a dozen candidates could emerge as the nominee.

And, second hot take: any one of them could beat Trump. No one is unelectable. Ask the Carter team, who rejoiced in 1980 when Reagan got the nomination, since everyone knew he was another Goldwater. Thinking the Dems are doomed if they don't nominate someone from the mushy middle is Beltway conventional wisdom that's based on basically nothing.

And we don't even know for sure Trump is the nominee. Many chapters still to come.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Big Magilla wrote:Is it because he doesn't want them to win or because he doesn't think they can win?
Oh, he'll SAY he doesn't think they can win, but he doesn't truly believe it. As you just said, "It seems unlikely but at this point four years ago no one was predicting Trump would get the Republican nomination".

Why are all the former New York mayors hellbent on destroying their legacies? Someone better keep an eye on David Dinkins.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Is it because he doesn't want them to win or because he doesn't think they can win? In any case, he won't run as a third party candidate because he knows not only won't he win but neither will the Democratic candidate.

The line Democrats are likely to use to calm moderates who fear a Warren or Sanders will mean the end of their private health insurance plan is "don't worry, it never pass the Senate" - which probably won't placate anyone. "The top 1% will pay for everything" is already being compared to Trump's "Mexico will pay for the wall" as something only fools believe.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
Well, yes, but his primary reason is to keep Trump from winning.
I don’t know if I agree. I think the primary reason is to keep Sanders or Warren from getting the nomination because they would threaten the levers of power and Joe Biden is falling apart in front of everyone. If Joe Biden wasn’t, would he jump in? I don’t think so.

To be honest, I think a lot of Democrats would prefer a second Trump term to a Warren or Sanders term. I know this bc Joe Manchin just said so on live TV.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Sonic Youth wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:Bloomberg will not run as a third party candidate. He knows that would just mean that Trump would win and he hates Trump. His sole reason for running is to defeat him.
No it's not. It's also to keep from Sanders or Warren winning.
Well, yes, but his primary reason is to keep Trump from winning.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Big Magilla wrote:Bloomberg will not run as a third party candidate. He knows that would just mean that Trump would win and he hates Trump. His sole reason for running is to defeat him.
No it's not. It's also to keep from Sanders or Warren winning.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Bloomberg will not run as a third party candidate. He knows that would just mean that Trump would win and he hates Trump. His sole reason for running is to defeat him.

He is supposed to make some kind of announcement on Monday.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

"What are you doing? Don't destroy the Articles of Confederation. You'll ruin everything. The only way to make things better is to fix it."

It's just taking something and replacing it with something better if you can. I don't see an issue with that.

Either way, according to a Fox News poll, 32% of Democrats would not consider voting for Michael Bloomberg in a Democratic primary. Which makes sense because he was a Republican Mayor. So... it's a non-factor. Unless he runs third party in a general election against Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders, which... the ego on this guy? Maybe.
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