Academy VFX Shortlist

[OscarGuy]

Sherlock Holmes never had a chance of a nomination. Super 8 I don't believe did either. The film wasn't nearly as popular as a lot of people surmised. Besides, in general, why nominate faux Spielberg when you can get the real one?

[Barrybrooks2011]

Well there went two of my original predictions: Super 8 and Sherlock Holmes 2.

[Dien]

Were some of the posts deleted in this thread? I could have sworn I had an argument in support of Super 8 last month. People said I was crazy. Looks like they were right.

My predictions:

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
The Tree of Life
X-Men: First Class

[rolotomasi99]

The train crash sequence in Super 8 is visually attractive but also, actually, completely horrible by standing against almost every law of physics.

I just accepted the laws of physics did not apply in this movie, similar to a Wylie Coyote and Road Runner cartoon. The whole sequence was exhilarating and hilarious.

[dreaMaker]

The train crash sequence in Super 8 is visually attractive but also, actually, completely horrible by standing against almost every law of physics.

[rolotomasi99]

Worth noting that Super 8 missed even the shortlist -- I'd thought it would be a likely nominee.

As did I. The train crash in the film was one of the best action sequences of 2011. The alien though was not very impressive. It probably lost points for that.

[Mister Tee]

Wow -- I've actually seen a full six of these. Dare I hope I can leave it there? (Especially praying a certain Mr. Bay's film is omitted)

[The Original BJ]

Worth noting that Super 8 missed even the shortlist -- I'd thought it would be a likely nominee.

[rolotomasi99]

After having THE TREE OF LIFE ignored by the Guilds (so far), it is nice to see one branch of the Academy was impressed by it.

My new predictions:
THE DEATHLY HALLOWS
HUGO
MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 4
RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
THE TREE OF LIFE

[rolotomasi99]

VFX Shortlist narrowed to ten:

Captain America: The First Avenger
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
Real Steel
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
The Tree of Life
X-Men: First Class

[The Original BJ]

Oh, I'd forgotten about Hereafter, that's absolutely a good precedent for a Tree of Life nomination.

[rolotomasi99]

Oh, I think Hugo is a pretty certain nominee -- it's widely seen as one of the year's most visually sumptuous movies, and even though the effects weren't Planet of the Apes prominent, there was more than enough CG wow to land on the list, particularly given the film's acclaim.

The candidate on many prediction lists that I have doubts about is The Tree of Life -- this isn't really the kind of movie that this branch tends to recognize, and usually films with subtler (or just LESS) visual effects have an uphill battle. But I'd love to be wrong, especially if it prevents me from having to see Transformers 3!

Well, last year proved they were willing to nominate a film based on quality of the effects rather than quantity. HEREAFTER was nominated for its amazing but brief tsunami scene over wall-to-wall effects films like CLASH OF THE TITANS, PRINCE OF PERSIA, PERCY JACKSON AND THE OLYMPIANS, THE LAST AIRBENDER, THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE, THE VOYAGE OF THE DAWN TREADER, and TRON LEGACY.

I agree with what Oscar Guy said, when they compare the 10 minute VFX clip for THE TREE OF LIFE against all the other films, it will look quite impressive.

[OscarGuy]

The reason I think Tree of Life is a likely nominee, BJ, is that the Douglas Trumbull contributed to the Visual Effects work and, if he's included on the list of potential nominees for the film, his legendary status may get him the nomination. Plus, I think the dinosaur scene and the earth creation scenes are very effective and flashy as well as the final scenes. Plus, Tree of Life only has to make it past the initial elimination to ten from which each film will show a ten-minute excerpt of the visual effects in the film, meaning the vast amount of VFX work in Harry Potter will be put side by side with the limited screen time of Tree of Life.

I think the first five films to get dropped will be Sucker Punch, Sherlock Holmes, Cowboys & Aliens, Thor and Mission: Impossible with X-Men, Super 8 and Captain America equal candidates for removal.

At this point, I think the final five may well be Harry Potter, Hugo, Real Steel, Rise of the Planet of the Apes and Tree of Life. Tree of Life is the weakest link of this group, so it could be replaced by Transformers, but the branch has been edging away from pure VFX stunt films in recent years and we could see a more refined list this year leaving off Transformers and Pirates in the process.

[The Original BJ]

Oh, I think Hugo is a pretty certain nominee -- it's widely seen as one of the year's most visually sumptuous movies, and even though the effects weren't Planet of the Apes prominent, there was more than enough CG wow to land on the list, particularly given the film's acclaim.

The candidate on many prediction lists that I have doubts about is The Tree of Life -- this isn't really the kind of movie that this branch tends to recognize, and usually films with subtler (or just LESS) visual effects have an uphill battle. But I'd love to be wrong, especially if it prevents me from having to see Transformers 3!

[rolotomasi99]

My predictions were:

The Deathly Hallows
Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes
Super 8
Transformer 3
The Tree Of Life

However, if HUGO is truly loved by the entire Academy, it could end up replacing the reviled TRANSFORMERS 3. Only THE DEATHLY HALLOWS and RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES seem certain.