My FINAL Predictions
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I'm never good at this but what the hell may as well take a shot at it but only in the top 6 categories.
Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Debra Granik, Winter's Bone
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet
The duo from Blue Valentine is really troubling me.........yet I'm leaving them off the list.
Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Debra Granik, Winter's Bone
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Vanessa Redgrave, Letters to Juliet
The duo from Blue Valentine is really troubling me.........yet I'm leaving them off the list.
I forgot. I like that.
Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hoo/pper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Best Original Score
127 Hours
Inception
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network
Best Original Song
"Chanson Illusionist", The Illusionist
"If I Rise", 127 Hours
"I See the Light", Tangled
"We Belong Together", Toy Story 3
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me", Burlesque
Best Animated Film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Life, Above All
Simple Simon
Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Best Film Editing
Black Swan
The Figher
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit
Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Burlesque
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
True Grit
The Wolfman
Best Sound Mixing
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
Best Sound Effects
127 Hours
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON: Legacy
Not doing the rest. See you tomorrow.
Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hoo/pper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Best Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
John Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Best Original Score
127 Hours
Inception
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network
Best Original Song
"Chanson Illusionist", The Illusionist
"If I Rise", 127 Hours
"I See the Light", Tangled
"We Belong Together", Toy Story 3
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me", Burlesque
Best Animated Film
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Best Foreign Language Film
Biutiful
Dogtooth
In a Better World
Life, Above All
Simple Simon
Best Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Best Film Editing
Black Swan
The Figher
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Best Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
True Grit
Best Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Burlesque
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
True Grit
The Wolfman
Best Sound Mixing
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
Best Sound Effects
127 Hours
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. The World
Toy Story 3
TRON: Legacy
Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Pt 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON: Legacy
Not doing the rest. See you tomorrow.
"How's the despair?"
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Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Kids Are All Right
True Grit
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
Best Directing
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
The Kids Are All Right
True Grit
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
Best Directing
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
I won't even get to watch the announcement tomorrow. I have to be at school at 7:30, and won't have time to discuss and analyze until probably sometime tomorrow night. A few years ago that would've been a major issue for me, but I don't much care this year. I'll probably check the nominations online on my phone at some point, but I'm just not feeling that excitement this year.
Best Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
127 Hours
Another Year
Winter's Bone
Best Directing
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Best Animated Feature
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
Despicable Me
Best Documentary Feature
Waiting for Superman
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Precious Life
Best Foreign Language Film
Incendies
In a Better World
Biutiful
Dogtooth
Outside the Law
Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Clint Mansell, Black Swan
A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Best Original Song
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me", Burlesque
"If I Rise" - 127 Hours
"I See the Light", Tangled
"Chanson Illusionist", The Illusionist
"Shine", Waiting for Superman
Best Cinematography
Matthew Libatique, Black Swan
Wally Pfister, Inception
Danny Cohen, The King's Speech
Jeff Cronenweth, The Social Network
Roger Deakins, True Grit
Best Art Direction
The Social Network - Donald Graham Burt
Black Swan - Thérèse Deprez, Tora Peterson
Inception - Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Doug Mowat
The King's Speech - Eve Stewart, Judy Farr
True Grit - Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh
Best Costume Design
Alice In Wonderland - Colleen Atwood
Black Swan - Amy Westcott
The King's Speech - Jenny Beavan
The Tempest-Sandy Powell
True Grit - Mary Zophres
Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
The Wolfman
The Fighter
Best Film Editing
Black Swan, Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter, Pamela Martin
Inception, Lee Smith
The King's Speech, Tariq Anwar
The Social Network, Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter
Best Sound Mixing
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
Best Sound Editing
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron: Legacy
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
127 Hours
Another Year
Winter's Bone
Best Directing
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Noomi Rapace, The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Lesley Manville, Another Year
Best Adapted Screenplay
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Best Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Best Animated Feature
Toy Story 3
How to Train Your Dragon
Despicable Me
Best Documentary Feature
Waiting for Superman
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Client 9: The Rise and Fall of Eliot Spitzer
Precious Life
Best Foreign Language Film
Incendies
In a Better World
Biutiful
Dogtooth
Outside the Law
Best Original Score
Alexandre Desplat, The King's Speech
Clint Mansell, Black Swan
A.R. Rahman, 127 Hours
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, The Social Network
Hans Zimmer, Inception
Best Original Song
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me", Burlesque
"If I Rise" - 127 Hours
"I See the Light", Tangled
"Chanson Illusionist", The Illusionist
"Shine", Waiting for Superman
Best Cinematography
Matthew Libatique, Black Swan
Wally Pfister, Inception
Danny Cohen, The King's Speech
Jeff Cronenweth, The Social Network
Roger Deakins, True Grit
Best Art Direction
The Social Network - Donald Graham Burt
Black Swan - Thérèse Deprez, Tora Peterson
Inception - Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias, Doug Mowat
The King's Speech - Eve Stewart, Judy Farr
True Grit - Jess Gonchor, Nancy Haigh
Best Costume Design
Alice In Wonderland - Colleen Atwood
Black Swan - Amy Westcott
The King's Speech - Jenny Beavan
The Tempest-Sandy Powell
True Grit - Mary Zophres
Best Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
The Wolfman
The Fighter
Best Film Editing
Black Swan, Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter, Pamela Martin
Inception, Lee Smith
The King's Speech, Tariq Anwar
The Social Network, Angus Wall & Kirk Baxter
Best Sound Mixing
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
Best Sound Editing
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
Best Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron: Legacy
- Sonic Youth
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- Contact:
I feel the same way. Literally not a day goes by where I do not think about the Oscars. I have already made my very, very, very early predictions for this year's crop of films (TREE OF LIFE for Best Picture!). However, for the past 11 years I have really been following the Oscars, I have been hurt and disappointed so many times. The worst was BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN. There were certainly some good moments like THE DEPARTED and NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN winning Best Picture as well as THERE WILL BE BLOOD and MILK being nominated for Best Picture (and winning other Oscars). The best moment was of course THE HURT LOCKER winning Best Picture.Sonic Youth wrote:I'm not making predictions this year, but seeing the Razzie nomination thread this morning (heralding the final 24 hours before The Big Announcement) was a splash of cold water to the face. "The Oscar nomination announcement is really tomorrow morning?" I was thinking. "Really?" I mean, I knew but for some reason I never truly realised it until this morning.
So, let me wish everyone a Happy Oscar Nomination morning. Probably, more often than not, we hate this day. But we look forward to it like Christmas, and now here it is. I hope everyone has fun tomorrow. I know I will... or at least, I'll try to.
This year, though, I have very little interest in who wins. With THE SOCIAL NETWORK sucking up all the oxygen from the race early on, I was pretty much checked out and just going through the motions of caring. Even THE KING'S SPEECH being a possible upset win is boring. If it were the mainstream and conventional THE SOCIAL NETWORK vs the art house and out-there BLACK SWAN or the beautifully made TRUE GRIT or the jaw-dropping INCEPTION...well, then maybe I could be invested. One bland and safe film fighting another bland and safe film is not much fun.
I am not sure I will even watch this year, though I will certainly complain about all the wins I disagree with. :p
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
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I'm actually thinking tomorrow is going to be a decent enough morning, because, even if AMPAS simply follows the template laid down by the prelims, that'll be a set of films/performers of whom I generally approve. But I hope Oscar voters don't simply follow the leader here, because 1) there are a number of interesting alternate choices (as BAFTA, among others, reminded us); 2) I like surprises amd 3) I think AMPAS for its own sense of self needs to do some individuation here. If the Oscars want to push back against the growing cry that they're simply the final affirmation of decisions made by others, they need to show some spark of independence. We know they can do it: only three year back, they nominated five performers omitted by SAG, and didn't simply replicate DGA in film/director, either. (Coincidentally, perhaps, it was also the last time we were in doubt about more than one acting award -- not that Im endorsing how they turned out) Last year's humdrum replication of DGA and SAG was the dreary flip side. Let's hope 2010 has more '07 than '09 in its soul.
One other preamble: I'm glad to see a few others (Damien & dws, so far) are doubting what is elsewhere considered sacrosanct: Nolan for best director. Though I acknowledge he has a better shot this time around, with the bat-cape discarded, I keep getting stuck on, what precedent is there for a summer-like entertainment, no matter how pleasurable, being cited by the the directors' branch? I suppose you could say Avatar, but that had two edges: being already one of the biggest earners of all-time, and surviving the otherwise universal crash of the Christmas debut-ers. Prior to that...Gladiator? I think voters persuaded trhemselves that was history. The Sixth Sense? Its human-centered story (yielding two acting nods) put it in a different frame. The last real precedent I can find is Spielberg in his Raiders days...which seems to me "another country and the wench is dead" distant. But, we'll see.
My ultimate predictions, to make your eyes glaze over. I've listed one alternate, and generally indicated what I see as the most vulnerable prediction wth an asterisk.
Film
127 Hours *
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
alt.: The Town
Actor
Jeff Bridges
Jesse Eisenberg
Colin Firth
James Franco
Ryan Gosling *
alt.: Mark Wahlberg
Actress
Annette Bening
Jennifer Lawrence
Natalie Portman
Hailee Steinfeld
Michele Williams *
alt.: Nicole Kidman
Sup. Actor
Christian Bale
Andrew Garfield *
Jeremy Renner
Mark Ruffalo
Geoffrey Rush
alt.: John Hawkes
Sup. Actress
Amy Adams
Helena Bonham Carter
Mila Kunis *
Melissa Leo
Jacki Weaver
alt.: Lesley Manville (but I could list about five -- potentially the big surprise category)
Director
Darren Aronofsky
Danny Boyle *
David Fincher
Tom Hooper
David O. Russell
alt. Christopher Nolan
Ad. Screenplay
The Ghost Writer *
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
alt.: 127 Hours
Or. Screenplay
Blue Valentine *
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
alt. Another Year (another spot with multiple possibilities)
Cinematography
127 Hours *
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
alt.: Shutter Island
Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter & the Deathy Hallows Pt. I *
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
alt. I Am Love
Costumes
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit *
alt.: Burlesque
Sound Mixing
127 Hours *
Black Swan
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
alt.: Unstoppable
Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Social Network
The Town *
alt.: The King's Speech
Music Score
The Ghost Writer
Inception
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network *
alt.: How to Train Your Dragon
Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter & the Deathy Hallows Pt. I *
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Tron: Legacy
alt. Iron Man 2
Sound Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Tron: Legacy
Unstoppable
alt.: Toy Story 3
Make-Up
Alice in Wonderland
True Grit *
The Wolf Man
alt.: The Fighter
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3
alt. The Illusionist
Song
If I Rise (127 Hours)
I See the Light (Tangled)
Life During Wartime (Life During Wartime) -- I know, hopeless long shot...but if I'm right, I can brag all season
Shine (Waiting for Superman)
You Haven't Seen the Last of Me (Burlesque)
Docs & foreigns? OUt of my viewing range
One other preamble: I'm glad to see a few others (Damien & dws, so far) are doubting what is elsewhere considered sacrosanct: Nolan for best director. Though I acknowledge he has a better shot this time around, with the bat-cape discarded, I keep getting stuck on, what precedent is there for a summer-like entertainment, no matter how pleasurable, being cited by the the directors' branch? I suppose you could say Avatar, but that had two edges: being already one of the biggest earners of all-time, and surviving the otherwise universal crash of the Christmas debut-ers. Prior to that...Gladiator? I think voters persuaded trhemselves that was history. The Sixth Sense? Its human-centered story (yielding two acting nods) put it in a different frame. The last real precedent I can find is Spielberg in his Raiders days...which seems to me "another country and the wench is dead" distant. But, we'll see.
My ultimate predictions, to make your eyes glaze over. I've listed one alternate, and generally indicated what I see as the most vulnerable prediction wth an asterisk.
Film
127 Hours *
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
alt.: The Town
Actor
Jeff Bridges
Jesse Eisenberg
Colin Firth
James Franco
Ryan Gosling *
alt.: Mark Wahlberg
Actress
Annette Bening
Jennifer Lawrence
Natalie Portman
Hailee Steinfeld
Michele Williams *
alt.: Nicole Kidman
Sup. Actor
Christian Bale
Andrew Garfield *
Jeremy Renner
Mark Ruffalo
Geoffrey Rush
alt.: John Hawkes
Sup. Actress
Amy Adams
Helena Bonham Carter
Mila Kunis *
Melissa Leo
Jacki Weaver
alt.: Lesley Manville (but I could list about five -- potentially the big surprise category)
Director
Darren Aronofsky
Danny Boyle *
David Fincher
Tom Hooper
David O. Russell
alt. Christopher Nolan
Ad. Screenplay
The Ghost Writer *
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
alt.: 127 Hours
Or. Screenplay
Blue Valentine *
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
alt. Another Year (another spot with multiple possibilities)
Cinematography
127 Hours *
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
alt.: Shutter Island
Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter & the Deathy Hallows Pt. I *
Inception
The King's Speech
Shutter Island
alt. I Am Love
Costumes
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit *
alt.: Burlesque
Sound Mixing
127 Hours *
Black Swan
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
alt.: Unstoppable
Film Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Social Network
The Town *
alt.: The King's Speech
Music Score
The Ghost Writer
Inception
The King's Speech
Never Let Me Go
The Social Network *
alt.: How to Train Your Dragon
Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter & the Deathy Hallows Pt. I *
Inception
Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
Tron: Legacy
alt. Iron Man 2
Sound Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Tron: Legacy
Unstoppable
alt.: Toy Story 3
Make-Up
Alice in Wonderland
True Grit *
The Wolf Man
alt.: The Fighter
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
Tangled
Toy Story 3
alt. The Illusionist
Song
If I Rise (127 Hours)
I See the Light (Tangled)
Life During Wartime (Life During Wartime) -- I know, hopeless long shot...but if I'm right, I can brag all season
Shine (Waiting for Superman)
You Haven't Seen the Last of Me (Burlesque)
Docs & foreigns? OUt of my viewing range
My Predictions (Major Categories Only):
Best Picture: 127 Hours, Barney’s Version, Black Swan, Inception, The Kid’s Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Danny Boyle (127 Hours), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), David Fincher (The Social Network), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King's Speech), James Franco (127 Hours), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Best Actress: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Tilda Swinton (I Am Love)
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Douglas (Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps), John Hawkes (Winter's Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech), Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Edited By dbensics on 1295902893
Best Picture: 127 Hours, Barney’s Version, Black Swan, Inception, The Kid’s Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone
Best Director: Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan), Danny Boyle (127 Hours), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), David Fincher (The Social Network), Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King's Speech), James Franco (127 Hours), Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Best Actress: Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), Tilda Swinton (I Am Love)
Best Supporting Actor: Michael Douglas (Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps), John Hawkes (Winter's Bone), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), Geoffrey Rush (The King's Speech)
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech), Mila Kunis (Black Swan), Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Edited By dbensics on 1295902893