DGA Winner

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Re: DGA Winner

Post by Sabin »

OscarGuy wrote
When was the last time a slow-moving film won an editing award? That's what I'm talking about as well edited as Argo is, it's not fast-paced, it's not chaotic, it's tense but done without resorting to the type of action adventure editing cliches to which we've become accustomed.
I think Argo is pretty fast-paced. Especially during the end. If it wins Best Film Editing, it will be because it jumps back and forth between countries and because of the airplane take off.
OscarGuy wrote
It would be surprising for Spielberg to win without a precedent, but I'm not so sure Lee will win a second Oscar for this film without Best Picture. They've done it to him once before and look how that turned out. Spielberg seems like a strong beneficiary of the non-presence of Affleck who, were he nominated, would have won in the current framework. Spielberg would then have three Oscars for directing, but this would be his second without a corresponding Best Picture win. I'll admit I'm still torn on who will win Best Director. I want to lean towards Spielberg, but this could be an opportunity for Harvey to sneak Russell in. It would be surprising, but with only Best Actress within sight for one of his films, I could see him turning his attention to Russell to win what some might consider an "overdue" Oscar. Were it David Fincher, I'd say it was a done deal, but who in Hollywood actually likes Russell? Sure Jennifer Lawrence has been singing his praise whenever she can, but that sounds more like a Weinstein-crafted ploy than a genuine one.
It may be a ploy, but it also may be a tactical decision to attempt to control the ridiculousness that spouts from Jennifer Lawrence's mouth on a non-stop basis.

I don't know how many people in Hollywood genuinely like David O. Russell, but I do know that most of the appearances lately have appeared almost Quaalude-induced. This dude knows exactly what reputation he has and he wants to get rid of it. The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and his upcoming ABSCAM feature...he's gone Hollywood and so far we're the better for it. Comedies (let alone romantic comedies) don't win in this category, but Silver Linings Playbook is a very "directed" film and with his previous nomination for The Fighter, Russell is the most "due" of the bunch. But again: no DGA nomination.

mlrg wrote
Everyone is talking about Argo winning best picture and the possibility of winning 2 more awards at best (editing and screenplay). What about score? Although not a memorable score, they'll have a chance of rewarding Desplat, who at this stage is already due for a win.
What about Best Sound Mixing?
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Re: DGA Winner

Post by mlrg »

Everyone is talking about Argo winning best picture and the possibility of winning 2 more awards at best (editing and screenplay). What about score? Although not a memorable score, they'll have a chance of rewarding Desplat, who at this stage is already due for a win.
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Re: DGA Winner

Post by Greg »

rolotomasi99 wrote:Other than Anne Hathaway in Supporting Actress and LIFE OF PI in Cinematography, I am not certain about the winner in any category.
Well, I am also certain about Daniel Day Lewis in Lead Actor, Amour in Foreign Language Film, "Skyfall" in Original Song, and Life Of Pi in Visual Effects.
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Re: DGA Winner

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OscarGuy wrote:When was the last time a slow-moving film won an editing award? That's what I'm talking about as well edited as Argo is, it's not fast-paced, it's not chaotic, it's tense but done without resorting to the type of action adventure editing cliches to which we've become accustomed.
Uhhh....THE SOCIAL NETWORK and THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO. ARGO is not an action film, but it does have quick-cutting sequences like the storming of the embassy and the airport escape. It is very much like TRAFFIC with its sprawling cast and various locations. The editing Oscar does not always go to the action film. In fact, since TRAFFIC won its Oscar, only BLACKHAWK DOWN, THE RETURN OF THE KING, THE BOURNE ULTIMATUM, and THE HURT LOCKER could be considered action films. CHICAGO is of course a musical (which used to dominate this category), while TRAFFIC, THE AVIATOR, CRASH, THE DEPARTED, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, THE SOCIAL NETWORK, and THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO are much more similar to ARGO.

As others have said, I am willing to believe ARGO can win Best Picture, but I am not willing to believe for a second it can win Best Picture alone. It just will not happen. If I does take Best Picture (and I still think the chances are 50/50), it will have to take Adapted Screenplay and Editing. If it proves more beloved than we even guessed, I could see it grabbing Sound and Sound Editing. If the "poor Ben" bullshit is really thick, then it sweeps and pulls Score and Supporting Actor along (this scenario is highly unlikely, but at this point I am prepared for just about anything).

I think ARGO can get a Best Picture win off of just its editing and writing (like CRASH). If LINCOLN wins Best Picture, it will be along with its director, lead actor, supporting actor, and screenwriter. If the Academy really likes it, its costumes and sets win too.

As for who wins Director if ARGO wins Best Picture, LINCOLN seems as possible as anything. The only reason I have any doubt is because usually the films that win for Director but lose Best Picture are known as real Director's films. The success of BORN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY, SAVING PRIVATE RYAN, TRAFFIC, and THE PIANIST were linked strongly to their directors. I think most people credit Tony Kushner and Daniel Day-Lewis with the success of LINCOLN, while people praise Spielberg for simply getting out of the film's way (the exact opposite of what he did with WARHORSE).

This is why I think AMOUR has a good shot, or at least as good a shot as LINCOLN to win Director. In fact, it would be interesting to see if we are headed toward a surprise repeat of THE PIANIST, with AMOUR taking not only Director but Original Screenplay and Lead Actress. I know I keep saying it, but Oscar night is going to be very exciting. Other than Anne Hathaway in Supporting Actress and LIFE OF PI in Cinematography, I am not certain about the winner in any category.
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Re: DGA Winner

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When was the last time a slow-moving film won an editing award? That's what I'm talking about as well edited as Argo is, it's not fast-paced, it's not chaotic, it's tense but done without resorting to the type of action adventure editing cliches to which we've become accustomed.

When I first saw Argo, it was a movie I loved, but didn't seem like the kind of film Oscar voters vote for all over the place. Until its surge in January, I was sure the film would be an also-ran and wasn't even sure a Best Picture nomination was a guarantee.

And Sabin, of the 27 precursor awards this year, the three films that earned the most precursors (21 between them) aren't nominated: Bigelow (11), Affleck (6), P.T. Anderson (4). Spielberg hasn't won any, but Ang Lee has two (Las Vegas and London), Russell has 1 (Detroit) and Haneke has 1 (National Society). Tarantino and Wes Anderson have the other two.

It would be surprising for Spielberg to win without a precedent, but I'm not so sure Lee will win a second Oscar for this film without Best Picture. They've done it to him once before and look how that turned out. Spielberg seems like a strong beneficiary of the non-presence of Affleck who, were he nominated, would have won in the current framework. Spielberg would then have three Oscars for directing, but this would be his second without a corresponding Best Picture win. I'll admit I'm still torn on who will win Best Director. I want to lean towards Spielberg, but this could be an opportunity for Harvey to sneak Russell in. It would be surprising, but with only Best Actress within sight for one of his films, I could see him turning his attention to Russell to win what some might consider an "overdue" Oscar. Were it David Fincher, I'd say it was a done deal, but who in Hollywood actually likes Russell? Sure Jennifer Lawrence has been singing his praise whenever she can, but that sounds more like a Weinstein-crafted ploy than a genuine one.
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Re: DGA Winner

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1. How was Argo not guaranteed a for writing nomination? What were they gonna go for instead? And how is Argo not a contender for editing? I'd agree that Zero Dark Thirty should definitely be more of a contender, but apparently Argo, with it's multiple locations, tense scenes, and generally acclaim will sweep. I will agree that if Argo wins the WGA, it's all but over for everyone else. I just hope the pity party for Affleck doesn't spread to people not named Affleck.

2. BJ, pray that Argo wins, or expect the Ben Affleck version of A Beautiful Mind to dominate the oscars within five years.

3. Mister Tee, if it weren't for the director's branch, I would have checked out of this race completely.
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Re: DGA Winner

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Sabin wrote:I was four in 1985, but didn't Out of Africa win the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Film?

Months ago, I was convinced that Lincoln would win Best Picture b/c of the Academy long-standing tradition of honoring movies that will bore the shit out of people in lieu of more interested fare in fifty years. Now, I like Lincoln. I like it more than Argo. But here's something that I haven't seen mentioned before: according to IMDB, Lincoln has won not a single award for directing. Is it possible that the only award for directing that Steven Spielberg will win for directing Lincoln will be the Oscar for Best Director?

I've asked this before but is it possible that a director besides Steven Spielberg or Ang Lee can will this year? Without DGA nominations, is there a precedent for Haneke, Russell, or Zeitlin?
I think it's a year for breaking precedents. One that should have been broken a long time ago is the refusal to award Best Director to a director of a foreign language film. I predicted Haneke before the Affleck, Bigelow and Hooper snubs and see no reason to change my forecast now that he is on much more solid ground.
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Re: DGA Winner

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I'm trying to figure out what would be more annoying:

If Argo wins Best Picture, and Ben Affleck wins his second Oscar, and people STILL feel like he got a raw deal out of life.

Or if Argo loses Best Picture, and the Ben Affleck pity party parade explodes in outrage that makes the Crash uproar look mild in comparison.

And I like Argo (though I like many of the other nominees more.)

Also, I do wonder how the fact that Oscar ballots aren't even out yet will affect the race, if there might be time for a backlash to the "poor Ben" narrative to set in. Cause it's really getting kind of ridiculous -- when was the last time there was a write-in campaign for an omitted candidate? (Although given how frequently the Academy has changed its rules in recent years, somehow I don't put it past them to open this up as a possibility in future years to "atone for" situations like this.)
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Re: DGA Winner

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I was four in 1985, but didn't Out of Africa win the Golden Globe for Best Dramatic Film?

Months ago, I was convinced that Lincoln would win Best Picture b/c of the Academy long-standing tradition of honoring movies that will bore the shit out of people in lieu of more interested fare in fifty years. Now, I like Lincoln. I like it more than Argo. But here's something that I haven't seen mentioned before: according to IMDB, Lincoln has won not a single award for directing. Is it possible that the only award for directing that Steven Spielberg will win for directing Lincoln will be the Oscar for Best Director?

I've asked this before but is it possible that a director besides Steven Spielberg or Ang Lee can will this year? Without DGA nominations, is there a precedent for Haneke, Russell, or Zeitlin?
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Re: DGA Winner

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The Original BJ wrote:The more that I start to think that Argo WILL win Best Picture, the more people who think it will ONLY win Best Picture make me go right back to thinking it's vulnerable again.
Bingo.

Oscar Guy, your last post could be quickly rewritten to say "Apollo 13 was never going to win screenplay at either WGA or AMPAS; Sense and Sensibility was much more a writer's film, and was a sure thing. It won't affect Apollo 13's best picture prospects". As far as the editing thing, are you kidding? A best picture contender with a lengthy cross-cut suspense finale is OF COURSE going to contend for editing. Even sight unseen, I figured it was Argo vs. Zero Dark Thirty; now that I've seen both films, I'm more sure of that, with Argo apparently more popular and likely to win.

But, as Apollo 13 found out, sound mixing and editing as your sole awards don't create much platform for a best picture win. I see almost literally no difference between Apollo in '95 and Argo today. Both are docudramas about small triumphs within big screwups, both end with suspenseful sequences involving flying vehicles (one landing, one taking off), both cut to cheering offices, both were made by popular actors who were snubbed by the directors' branch, and both swept PGA/SAG/DGA. I know Argo FEELS unbeatable, but so did Apollo to me back then. And, to reference another famed omitted director year, Lincoln may seem dead in the water as alternative, but so did Out of Africa in '85 -- another movie people respected/didn't love that was supposed to fall to a more passionately supported Color Purple.

We should thank the directors' branch, for keeping alive a vibrant, fun contest in a year where there were so many varied options, yet these damnable precursors seem to feel their sole function is to spoil the race. And to settle on Argo! -- a pleasant but completely un-groundbreaking mid-range thriller with Hollywood jokes? (Which, by the way, are no funnier than the ones agent Charles Grodin played out in Ishtar) I'm only mid-way through my Oscar crash course -- have yet to see Lincoln/Django/Les Miz/Amour -- but for me both Zero Dark Thirty and Silver Linings are WAY better than Argo (and Bigelow's the one with the big omission complaint). It's unconscionable to try and end the race so dully with an Argo sure thing.

But I don't think it IS a sure thing. You've always got to look at the Academy's nominations as some level of predictor, and they seem to have sampled a different universe than the precursors did this year. I'd have made some substititutions on their slate (Hawkes for Jackman, Bigelow for I guess Zeitlin -- though I don't mind his nomination). But they at least did a decent job of suggesting the wide range of solid, commercially appealing films this year. And i don't think they're ready to call the race over just yet.
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Re: DGA Winner

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The more that I start to think that Argo WILL win Best Picture, the more people who think it will ONLY win Best Picture make me go right back to thinking it's vulnerable again.
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Re: DGA Winner

Post by Reza »

If the Academy has any sense Amour would win five Oscars. Foreign Film, Best Actress, Best Director, Original Screenplay and yes, Best Picture too.
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Re: DGA Winner

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Argo was never a contender for the WGA or Adapted Screenplay award at the Oscars. I would even say that it was never even guaranteed a nomination. That's the distinction here. People will latch onto a Tony Kushner victory with the WGA has proof that Argo is waning and that it won't win Best Picture. That would be an asinine view, IMO. Lincoln is the favorite going in. The only way WGA impacts Argo's chances is if Chris Terrio WINS the WGA.

Something similar occurs with the ACE. Until Argo started steamrolling the competition in the latter days of the race, no one would have thought that Argo, a slow-moving film (even if well paced and cut) was going to be a contender for the ACE award or the Oscar for Editing. Most thought Zero Dark Thirty and/or Skyfall were the key competitors there. And they still are. I would love Argo to win editing, I thought it was one of the best constructed films this year; however, I just don't see it as a film that can win editing. If Argo DOES win Editing, yes it means something. If it loses, don't start crying of Argo's days being numbered.
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Re: DGA Winner

Post by rolotomasi99 »

Sonic Youth wrote:
Sabin wrote:I think it's safe to say at this point that wrt comparisons between Argo and Apollo 13 that people seem to be across the board more passionate about Ben's film than Ron's, and that's really all it needs.
It's looking more and more like Argo will either win Best Picture or be the most precursor-ed Best Picture loser of the year. And Sabin has it right. The film's support is far more passionate, and we're seeing it borne out with each new day. It's more than just precursor record-keeping. Everyone is talking about Argo and poor Ben Affleck. Not Lincoln, and not Les Miz, at least not first and foremost.

Immediately after the AMPAS noms are announced, the American media finds a hook to focus their coverage on. Usually it's on a particular film or actress. In 2009, it was all about Kate Winslet. It's never about the Best Director category, but this year the headlines were all about Ben Affleck and his snub for Director (and, to a lesser extent, Bigelow but her film was barely seen at the time, and of course she's no celebrity). It's turning out that this 'passion' is no media bubble, but something real and growing.
Roger Ebert must be feeling pretty pleased with himself. He predicted on September 10th ARGO was going to win Best Picture. Even the most over-confident Oscar prognosticator would never make such a bold prediction that early out.

Everything points to ARGO rolling on to a Best Picture win. However, the specter of APOLLO 13 still sticks in people's minds. I was just tween when BRAVEHEART won Best Picture. Did most folks go into Oscar night thinking APOLLO 13 was going to win, or was it already clear BRAVEHEART was going to upset? In retrospect, some folks have pointed to the loss of the WGA as the first sign of trouble for APOLLO 13. Similarly, the WGA seems to be the major guild award where ARGO is the most vulnerable, which is particularly troubling since it would most likely lose to its major competition at the Oscars: LINCOLN. I would be surprised if ARGO lost the ACE, but this is the one award everyone already assumed it would be victorious even before this sweep began.

The thing that still surprises me is that the two most discussed films this Oscar season are ARGO and ZERO DARK THIRTY. If LINCOLN is the biggest obstacle in the path to Best Picture for ARGO, it sure is being quiet about it. Even when CRASH beat BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, there were passionate supporters of both films. With LINCOLN, most people praise the film, but I am just not detecting the head-over-heels love you would expect for a Best Picture winner.

I loved both films, so I will not be particularly upset if either one wins. Right now I am just enjoying the spectacle of it all.
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Re: DGA Winner

Post by Sonic Youth »

Sabin wrote:I think it's safe to say at this point that wrt comparisons between Argo and Apollo 13 that people seem to be across the board more passionate about Ben's film than Ron's, and that's really all it needs.
I'm quoting from another thread, but it's just as appropriate here. I thought I had responded to it at the time, but it didn't go through.

It's looking more and more like Argo will either win Best Picture or be the most precursor-ed Best Picture loser of the year. And Sabin has it right. The film's support is far more passionate, and we're seeing it borne out with each new day. It's more than just precursor record-keeping. Everyone is talking about Argo and poor Ben Affleck. Not Lincoln, and not Les Miz, at least not first and foremost.

Immediately after the AMPAS noms are announced, the American media finds a hook to focus their coverage on. Usually it's on a particular film or actress. In 2009, it was all about Kate Winslet. It's never about the Best Director category, but this year the headlines were all about Ben Affleck and his snub for Director (and, to a lesser extent, Bigelow but her film was barely seen at the time, and of course she's no celebrity). It's turning out that this 'passion' is no media bubble, but something real and growing.

OTOH, if this same film were directed by Roger Spotiswoode or Taylor Hackford (which it may very well have been), would anyone have bothered to summon up so much as a blink if their names were left off the Best Director category? And would the film have gone on to win the PGA, SAG and DGA afterwards? I think we know the answer to that. But this would hardly be the first time something wins an award for sentimental reasons. For Hollyood, it's a tradition.
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