Post-Globes Breakdown

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rolotomasi99
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Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Post by rolotomasi99 »

Now for something completely random:

http://www.nextmovie.com/blog/iran-argo-remake/

Iran is going to make a cinematic response to ARGO. If this were directed by an actual filmmaker, this could be interesting. However, it seems some amateur actor/assistant director will be in charge.

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm2801136/

On a related note, clearly both the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards were chosen long before the Oscar nominations were announced, so we cannot say they are a direct response to the Affleck snub. Since both of those organizations are known for trying to predict the Oscars, it seems fair to say they picked ARGO because they thought the Academy was going to embrace it. It is possible they made their selection based on their genuine affection for the film, but maybe they have heard enough enthusiasm about ARGO around Hollywood to warrant this surprising prediction.

I believe many of the old rules about Best Picture just are not as iron clad as they used to be. I truly thought a film could win Best Picture even without a Best Director nomination. I assumed it was going to be LES MISERABLES, but maybe it will be ARGO. It will be interesting to see how the PGA, DGA, WGA, and SAG awards go. Those could legitimately seen as a direct response to the shocking Oscar nominations. APOLLO 13 won three of those guilds and still lost Best Picture, so even a wave of support for ARGO from these groups does not guarantee Oscar success. However, I get the feeling the path to the Oscars is not going to be smooth for LINCOLN.
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Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Post by flipp525 »

I find it fascinating that not a single person predicted Christoph Waltz to win (or even had him listed as a runner-up) in the Golden Globes Predictions contest. My jaw pretty much dropped when they announced him as the winner. I agree with Mister Tee that Tommy Lee Jones' supposed triumphal return to the Oscar stage just doesn't seem to be, well, exactly happening? In fact, I think the only category that anyone can call with any certainly is Anne Hathaway for Best Supporting Actress (although her speech sounded bizarrely insincere; jumping in to rattle off her remaining thank-you's during the Les Miz BP win was utterly gauche). Best Actress is truly anyone's game—you could even make a case for Wallis swooping in and taking it. Like, I believe it was Marco, said, she’s the only definitive lead in her film in the category. Best Actor I'm feeling equally unsure about. Reason would dictate DDL, but I could see Phoenix or possibly even (shudder) Jackman winning.
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Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Post by Sabin »

I'm not sure that this Oscar race is open, but what I find so engaging about this year is that the horse race keeps changing. It goes from Argo vs. Les Miserables to Les Miserables vs. Silver Linings Playbook to Lincoln vs. Zero Dark Thirty to Life of Pi vs. Lincoln to Argo vs. Lincoln. We've had open races before, but when was the last time that this happened? Where this many films were "Going to Win It"?

If there's one thing that last night changed, it's the perception that this is an open and shut Oscar race, that this is Lincoln stamp-sealed and done. Is Lincoln still going to win? Probably. It's going to have an Apollo 13 vibe now (or does Argo have an Apollo 13 vibe now?), but this is the Hollywood Foreign Press. They can influence the narrative, not the votes. What message did they send: vote for whatever you like. How unbeatable can Lincoln be if Argo just won Best Picture? Does it matter that Les Miserables is critically reviled if it can win Best Picture over Silver Linings Playbook and more wins than any movie last night? If Christoph Waltz can win the Golden Globe, there's no reason why he can't win a second Oscar. Or Quentin Tarantino beat Mark Boal. Do I think anything really is going to change? No, but it makes it more fun to think about. I'm personally a little bummed out that Silver Linings Playbook didn't pick up more momentum before it opened big on 2500 screens Friday, but it's still the funnest season in years.

(Didn't watch a second of the ceremony. New job is killing me)
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Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Post by dws1982 »

Oscar Guy, I never called his performance embarrassing. I said that an Oscar for his performance would be an embarrassment. And I think it would be--Day-Lewis, Cooper, and Washington are simply operating at a different level, as far as I'm concerned. Not that I blame Jackman for the shortcomings of his performance--Tom Hooper probably deserves most of the blame.
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Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Post by Big Magilla »

I'm betwixt and between both of you on this one. I do think Hugh Jackman gave a near-perfect performance in Les Miz, but I don't think it's a better performance than Daniel Day-Lewis' Lincoln. I think Day-Lewis is working overtime this awards season to try and overcome his aloof reputation - saying the last award at the Broadcast Critics should be handed out in the port-a-potty; acknowladging his loss for words without Tony Kushner to write them for him at the Globes. Personal popularity and/or back story can be a factor and I would even say should be a factor when one perceives two or more performances to be on a par with one another, but not when one performance is clearly superior to the others.

The issue with giving a third Oscar to Daniel Day-Lewis is that he would become the first actor and only the second performer behind Katharine Hepburn (who has four) to win a third lead Oscar. That's quite an honor and quite a steep mountain to climb. However, with Jean-Louis Trintignat and John Hawkes out of the Best Actor race he has to be the clear favorite on the basis of performance. Denzel Washington has been a clear also-ran all season long. Bradley Cooper and Joaquin Phoenix have won numerous awards but both have their detractors as well as their supporters, though either of them or Hugh Jackman could be an upset winner, but that's what they would be and probably what they would cause - upset.

On the other hand, how long does anyone think it would take after a third lead win for Day-Lewis for the drum roll to start for Meryl Streep's third lead win? I'd venture to say not very long.
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Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Post by OscarGuy »

DWS. I will disagree with you, as will many, I don't find Jackman's performance in Les Mis at all embarrassing. It's passionate, tender, powerful and tremendous. I would have no problem with him winning over DDL. And your comment sounds like denial. Meryl Streep would say that voters DO think about whether they will give someone a third honor for a particular performance. They kept her away from the award until she'd given one they thought worthy of the mantle. Yes, Lincoln would seem like the right vehicle for Day-Lewis and he may well be a three-peat winner one day; however, I don't think he's quite achieved the Nichols, Streep, Bergman or Hepburn legendary status yet. It's been 23 years since he won for My Left Foot, which would be one year short of Nicholson's shortest three-peat trajectory. THAT fact is the one voters don't consider. And, like Meryl, they have to consider you really SPECIAL to give you a third Oscar and even then, they don't just hand it out like candy.

Another factor in the Streep failures was that she played against strong contenders for other films and ultimately lost because of it. Day-Lewis comes off as particularly aloof and many people describe his working ways as off-putting (considering he stays in character for the duration of the production). Jackman, on the other hand, is often cited as a generous, friendly and wonderful person to work with. And we've seen when voters are given the choice between a third career honor and a middle-aged, long-time actor whose generosity is well recognized, they go for that person. I'm talking Sandra Bullock here. I'm not comparing the two performances because I thought Jackman was far better in his role than Bullock was in hers, but I see more to suggest Jackman has a shot than Day-Lewis. Let's remember that Day-Lewis swept the precursors for Gangs of New York, but lost to Adrien Brody in The Pianist. We have no holocaust drama to trump Day-Lewis this time, but let's not be so sure that DDL will get a third Oscar so soon.
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Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Post by Big Magilla »

I have long been of the opinion that Academy voters don't look to the Golden Globes for clues as to who or what to vote for. Most voters, one hopes, would make up their mind on the quality of the work and in terms of actors, basis of performance. We all know, however, that performance alone doesn't win acting awards. What the televised awards, in particular the Globes where the wine and liquor freely flow, is put a keen eye on how performers react.

They study the reactions of the winners and non-winners alike. I think Argo was a player before the Academy snubbed Affleck, but his genuine humility upon his double wins at both the Broadcast Critics Awards and the Globes make him the year's unexpected Horatio Alger story. My early prediction was a Best Picture/director split between Les Miz and Amour. I still see a split, though it may be for Argo or Zero Dark Thirty instead. Argo would seem to have the momentum now, not based on Affleck's surprise wins, but by the way he handled those wins with a great deal of humor and humility.

As for Driving Miss Daisy's Best Picture Oscar win, that one was a total shock. At the time no one thought a film without a Best Director nod could/would win. Ever since, most pundits have dismissed its win as a fluke that has little chance of being repeated. This year my greatest Oscar hope is that a film from one of the snubbed directors wins if for no other reason than to act as a grapefruit to the face of all of those smug know-it-all pundits. And if no one has noticed, Emmanuelle Riva is this year's Jessica Tandy up against not one, but two Michelle Pfeiffers. How can she not win?
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Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Post by dws1982 »

FilmFan720 wrote:BEST ACTOR -- I am still not convinced that Day Lewis has this in the bag. No one has ever won 3 Best Actor Oscars, and that is a huge mantle to put on someone. Hugh Jackman gave a great speech tonight, comes across as one of the really good guys in Hollywood and seems to be emerging from the Les Miserables criticism pretty unscathed. Les Miserables is a real actor's film, and is going to play well to the larger, broader SAG voting population...he'll give Day Lewis a run for his money there and remains a pretty potent threat.
I really don't think most voters are going put that much thought into their voting--i.e., sit around thinking about whether Daniel Day-Lewis should get the honor of winning a third Oscar or whatever. So much of voting in general is about knee-jerk reactions--if they like him enough in Lincoln, they'll vote for him. If Hugh Jackman wins over Day-Lewis, or Bradley Cooper, or even Denzel Washington's career-best work in Flight (an interesting deconstruction of his typical persona), I'm finished with the Oscars for good. (Haven't seen Joaquin Phoenix's performance yet.) Jackman may be a nice guy, and I'll give him credit for really going for something, but an Oscar for what he does in Les Miserables would be an absolute embarrassment.
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Re: Post-Globes Breakdown

Post by FilmFan720 »

A quick question for those who were following the Oscars in 1989...at what point did Driving Miss Daisy winning Best Picture start to seem feasible? Was it a complete surprise when the envelope was opened, or did it seem like a strong possibility before then?
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Post-Globes Breakdown

Post by FilmFan720 »

So, the Golden Globes made things a lot more interesting (potentially) for the Oscars. Ben Affleck wins his second televised prize of the week after being non-nominated, neither of the Globe Best Pictures has a Best Director nod at the Oscars, the Comedy/Musical split means both front-runners for Best Actor and Best Actress take home prizes, the Best Supporting Actor winner doesn't have a corresponding SAG nomination and Best Screenplay goes to a script no one considered in the running for a prize.

Going forth, here is how things look:

BEST PICTURE -- Lincoln has to be our front-runner right now, but if it loses SAG Ensemble (for as impressive as it's cast is, it only has 7 nominees listed, as compared to the sprawling casts of Les Miserables or Argo, which the industry people went wild for tonight) then you have to wonder. Life of Pi really needed a big win here tonight to stay in the competition (it feels like a real also-ran right now) and Silver Linings Playbook is certainly hurt by not winning over Les Miserables after it's large haul on Thursday (Annie Hall lost the Globe - Comedy/Musical, though). The PGA's could also help clarify this by choosing Lincoln (or bringing Life of Pi back into the conversation), or they could go the way of Argo or Zero Dark Thirty and make us even more confused. Ironically, Zero Dark Thirty led the box office this weekend, which should have us talking about it becoming a force in the race, but it is proving to be D.O.A.

BEST DIRECTOR -- The globes told us nothing tonight except people still like Ben Affleck. I think there is a very strong case to be made that Affleck also wins DGA...if he does, than this race is blown pretty wide open. If Spielberg wins the DGA, I think Lincoln is solid.

BEST ACTOR -- I am still not convinced that Day Lewis has this in the bag. No one has ever won 3 Best Actor Oscars, and that is a huge mantle to put on someone. Hugh Jackman gave a great speech tonight, comes across as one of the really good guys in Hollywood and seems to be emerging from the Les Miserables criticism pretty unscathed. Les Miserables is a real actor's film, and is going to play well to the larger, broader SAG voting population...he'll give Day Lewis a run for his money there and remains a pretty potent threat.

BEST ACTRESS -- Jennifer Lawrence vs. Jessica Chastain. Tonight told us nothing, as they both won, but with Zero Dark Thirty losing steam quickly this looks like Lawrence will become the second-youngest winner in this category. If Chastain wins at SAG then we have a race, but a Lawrence win there should solidify her front-runner status. Of course, we have the Emmanuelle Riva question. Some people here see her as a strong contender in the race, and she will enter Oscar night with no signs whatsoever to her strength...she has no other nominations. Her supporters right now should be looking at Marcia Gay Harden in 2000...no Globe nod, no SAG nod, garners an uphill Oscar nomination and without warning wins the award over the hot, young up-and-comer everyone assumes is the front-runner.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR -- We will go into Oscar night with two different winners here, as Christoph Waltz took the Golden Globe but can't win the SAG (possibly three if you count Philip Seymour Hoffman winning the Critic's Choice, surprisingly enough). Many see Tommy Lee Jones as the front-runner, especially if Lincoln starts looking to dominate, but chances could be made for any of them to win...Waltz has the Golden Globe, Arkin may be the best chance to honor the much-beloved Argo, de Niro seems like a strong contender for being a 3-time winner in another much-beloved movie and Hoffman has the most critical support of anyone here. If Jones wins SAG, then his chances at another Oscar are the strongest, but this is going down to the wire no matter what.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS -- Anne Hathaway is winning everything from here on out.
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