Oscar Predictions at Year End

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Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby anonymous1980 » Thu Dec 29, 2011 2:01 pm

Are you certain that Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close is a "sure bet"? It got shut out of SAG's and the Globes.It has huge and vocal detractors. I would personally wait until BAFTA. If it doesn't show up there, it's dead. I guess it's possible for a last-minute rally but on top of all that, it's already competing with the Important Manipulative Sentimental film vote with The Help and War Horse. And when was the last time a film got COMPLETELY shut out of the Globes yet somehow made it to Best Picture?

Speaking of The Help, don't you guys think with the new voting system, there is a possibility it might get left off? I mean, I know a lot of people really like The Help and it's gonna show up on a lot of ballots, for sure but how many of them are passionate enough about it that they would rank it as #1? Are there enough conservative Academy members with rather milquetoast taste that would push it to a nomination? Especially now since War Horse and Extremely Loud are also courting for their votes.

It's also puzzling why you would rank Bridesmaids as a "maybe" yet not even list Melissa McCarthy, arguably that film's best bet for an Oscar nomination, in the Supporting Actress race (where you list Amy freakin' Ryan for Win Win who has only recently showed up in a relatively minor critics precursor).

You should also explain why you're so down on the chances of Midnight in Paris. Woody Allen is an Oscar favorite and this is his biggest critical AND commercial hit in years. I think it's a strong contender for Best Picture and Best Director. And what does being in LA have to do with anything? Woody's won 3 times and has been nominated a whole bunch of times. So I'm puzzled.

Big Magilla
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Oscar Predictions at Year End

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Dec 29, 2011 11:49 am

Now that the major pre-cursor nominations and/or winners have been announced and the Oscar ballots have been mailed, it's time to get serious about our Oscar predictions.

Best Picture

The sure bets:

War Horse - yes, it's old-fashioned, yes, it's manipulative, yes, the critics pretty much didn't care for it and no, it's not setting the box-office on fire, but will it play to the Academy? Yes. The technical nominations are a given, but the more difficult Best Picture/Director nods should come from the mature membership that sees it as memory piece. Like any war story that people remember from long ago, things may be different in memory than they were in reality. Perceptions blur and things become exaggerted. That's how the film plays.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close - yes, it, too, is manipulative, and the critics pretty much didn't care for it either, but it was among the last DVDs to be mailed to the membership before the ballots were sent out. It's sure to be watched and appreciated by enough of the membership to garner a nod for Best Picture even if it doesn't receive a ndo for anything else.

The Artist - the film that everything and everybody tells the membership it should like, which will be off-putting to some, but not enough to ignore its potential.

Ther Descendants - loved by many, shrugged off and even hated by almost as many, but with the preponderance on the former, it's sure to be nominated, though its prospect for a win is less likely.

The maybes:

Hugo - loved by many, scorned by a growing numer as a waste of money, but not talent

Moneyball - the year's big sports film

The Tree of Life - beloved by some, reviled by others, but could have enough support to make it in

The Help - wrongly considered this year's Driving Miss Daisy when it's really this year's Steel Magnolias but has enough support to make it onto an expanded list of nominees

Bridesmaids - don't ask me why, I have no idea, but seems to be popular enough to squeeze in

The less likely:

Midnight in Paris - Woody Allen's most successful film, but does it register in L.A.?

J. Edgar - Eastwood's latest disappointment

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy - seems to have slipped through everyone's radar

Best Actor

The sure bets:

George Clooney, The Descendnats
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Brad Pitt, Moneyball

The maybes:
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar

The less likely:
Gary Oldman, Tnker, Tinker, Soldier, Spy
Ryan Golsing, Drive

Best Actress

The sure bets:
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Viola Davis, The Help

The maybes:
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Michelle Williams, My Life with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

The less likely:
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Elizabeth Olsen, Marcy, Martha, May, Marlene

Best Supporting Actor

The sure bet:
Christopher Plummer, Beginners

The maybes:
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Nick Nolte, Warrior

The less likely:
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Armie Hammer, J. Edgar

Best Supporting Actress

The sure bets:
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Octavia Spencer, The Help

The maybes:
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Vanessa Redgrave, Corliolanus
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

The less likely:
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Amy Ryan, Win Win

Best Director

The sure bets:
Steven Spielberg, War Horse
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Alexander Payne, The Descendants

The maybes:
Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Martin Scorsese, Hugo
Terrence Malick, The Tree of Life

The less likely:
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

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