Oscar Predictions at Year End

For the films of 2011
bizarre
Assistant
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:35 am

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by bizarre »

ITALIANO wrote:
Reza wrote:
ITALIANO wrote: I've come to know two or three things about Americans. And one of these things is - they love overweight black actresses. Or better - they love the characters these actresses play, because they give them a chance to pity them. And pity, while sometimes hypocritical (in this case, definitely), brings votes. Many votes.
Funny and true !! Strangely enough the white counterpoint usually gets a shortshrift.....she is usually shown in gross comic mode like the actress in Bridesmaids but the black version is always shown in a ''holier than thou'' mode. Guilt, in droves !!

Yes, but it seems that only we foreigners can clearly see that. When you bring them face to face with such issues they feel terrified, and they either attack you (not very convincingly, let's be honest) or they desperately try to dismiss what you just said. Self-criticism is unknown to them. Once in a while, I must admit that I still like to see such reactions - I find them fascinating. But they are nice people.
Are you for real, or is someone deliberately trolling with a handbook of xenophobic-European stereotypes?

Perhaps a better question is: why do the rest of you put up with this joker?
ITALIANO
Emeritus
Posts: 4076
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2003 1:58 pm
Location: MILAN

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by ITALIANO »

Reza wrote:
ITALIANO wrote: I've come to know two or three things about Americans. And one of these things is - they love overweight black actresses. Or better - they love the characters these actresses play, because they give them a chance to pity them. And pity, while sometimes hypocritical (in this case, definitely), brings votes. Many votes.
Funny and true !! Strangely enough the white counterpoint usually gets a shortshrift.....she is usually shown in gross comic mode like the actress in Bridesmaids but the black version is always shown in a ''holier than thou'' mode. Guilt, in droves !!

Yes, but it seems that only we foreigners can clearly see that. When you bring them face to face with such issues they feel terrified, and they either attack you (not very convincingly, let's be honest) or they desperately try to dismiss what you just said. Self-criticism is unknown to them. Once in a while, I must admit that I still like to see such reactions - I find them fascinating. But they are nice people.
Reza
Laureate Emeritus
Posts: 10031
Joined: Thu Jan 02, 2003 11:14 am
Location: Islamabad, Pakistan

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by Reza »

ITALIANO wrote: I've come to know two or three things about Americans. And one of these things is - they love overweight black actresses. Or better - they love the characters these actresses play, because they give them a chance to pity them. And pity, while sometimes hypocritical (in this case, definitely), brings votes. Many votes.
Funny and true !! Strangely enough the white counterpoint usually gets a shortshrift.....she is usually shown in gross comic mode like the actress in Bridesmaids but the black version is always shown in a ''holier than thou'' mode. Guilt, in droves !!
bizarre
Assistant
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:35 am

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by bizarre »

Chastain hasn't won a single award for The Help that she hasn't shared with her other films this year IIRC. She has, however, won awards solely for her Take Shelter and The Tree of Life performances.

I'd say Chastain winning over Spencer for The Help would be like McDormand winning over Hudson for Almost Famous.

In defense of Take Shelter, it was the third screener to be sent out, Michael Shannons' performance has proved incredibly popular on the (non-televised) precursor circuit, and respect for him could translate into votes for Chastain.
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19319
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by Big Magilla »

bizarre wrote: Don't forget that before Davis headed to Lead and precursor season started Chastain's work in The Help was usually acknowledged with 'I liked her, but she won't be nominated...'
I never heard that, or if I did it was long before I saw the film so I did forget it, but more importantly most Oscar voters don't follow on-line prognositcators who don't know any more than you or I and in some cases a lot less. They do pay attention to the major awards groups which have already singled out Chastain, mostly for The Help which most of them have seen], not Take Shelter which many of them haven't.
bizarre
Assistant
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:35 am

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by bizarre »

The role is far smaller than any of the past decade's Supporting Actress winners, and far more tangential to the plot. Spencer, Bejo or Chastain herself for Take Shelter would fit the bill much more - even Redgrave, Mulligan or McCarthy (although the latter's role is small) if they're nominated. Don't forget that before Davis headed to Lead and precursor season started Chastain's work in The Help was usually acknowledged with 'I liked her, but she won't be nominated...'
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19319
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by Big Magilla »

flipp525 wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:I don't think anyone has mentioned the parallel to 1982, but I just wrote a comment on CinemaSight in response to Mike Kelly's question about Jessica Chastain.
Big Magilla, you really love to make these "doesn't this year look like this year?" comparisons. I think the last time I logged onto a prediction thread some months ago, you were saying that this year would look like 1981 with four veterans taking the top acting honors. Now it's 1982. It's fun to speculate I guess, but you do it so frequently and often have to make large leaps for everything to fit into your narrative that it loses a lot of punch.
I think the 1981 comparison is pretty much down the drain. Vanessa Redgrave is hardly being mentioned for Coriolanus, though a nomination is still a possibility and as much as I would like to see Gary Oldman in the winner's circle, that's going to be a tough one to pull off as well. At the time I hadn't yet seen The Help and Chastain hadn't yet won all the precursors she has. And bizarre, forget politically correct. The hot chick of the moment fits the mold perfectly.
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by flipp525 »

Okri wrote:That it does, flipp, but it won the Orange Prize (2005), and that sorta boosted it. I knew of three separate book clubs reading it then. 2003 was all about Curious Incident and Known World and Fortress of Solitude, imo.
Touché! Highly recommend it. My book club is reading it, too.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
Okri
Tenured
Posts: 3345
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by Okri »

That it does, flipp, but it won the Orange Prize (2005), and that sorta boosted it. I knew of three separate book clubs reading it then. 2003 was all about Curious Incident and Known World and Fortress of Solitude, imo.
bizarre
Assistant
Posts: 566
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2011 9:35 am

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by bizarre »

I've been wondering why there are whispers of a Chastain win for The Help. Not only does it not fit the typical winner's mold at all, it would seem almost un-PC to give Chastain a win over Spencer. If Chastain were nominated for Take Shelter, however, I could see her winning.

And I see nothing this year has in common with 1982 save potential nominations for both Streep and Close?
flipp525
Laureate
Posts: 6163
Joined: Thu Jan 09, 2003 7:44 am

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by flipp525 »

Big Magilla wrote:I don't think anyone has mentioned the parallel to 1982, but I just wrote a comment on CinemaSight in response to Mike Kelly's question about Jessica Chastain.
Big Magilla, you really love to make these "doesn't this year look like this year?" comparisons. I think the last time I logged onto a prediction thread some months ago, you were saying that this year would look like 1981 with four veterans taking the top acting honors. Now it's 1982. It's fun to speculate I guess, but you do it so frequently and often have to make large leaps for everything to fit into your narrative that it loses a lot of punch.

I don't see Chastain winning anything. Nomination, definitely. Win, no. I think the big question with her is for which film will she be nominated. The Help and Take Shelter seem to be the strongest possibilities.
Plus, I don't want to be offensive, but for example Theron and Mara are "incredibly impressive" ACCORDING TO YOU. Let's not forget this. (I still have to see their movies, but I've heard different opinions).
Theron is impressive according to me as well (and I have seen Young Adult which the audience absolutely loved, by the way).
I think Tee brought it up, but it's worth mentioning that We Need to Talk About Kevin was one of the big lit-hits of 2005 and probably punches above it's weight-class for name recognition than you'd think for a Lynne Ramsay oddity. I wouldn't be surprised to see it sneak in for a screenplay nod.
I'm about halfway through reading We Need To Talk About Kevin (copyright says 2003, not 2005, Okri) and I have to say, it's one of the most intense things I've ever read. If the film really "goes there" for even half of what happens on the page, I can definitely see Tilda Swinton being one of the more intense nominations in this category. Kind of Ellen Burstyn-ish.
Last edited by flipp525 on Mon Jan 02, 2012 10:13 pm, edited 3 times in total.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
User avatar
OscarGuy
Site Admin
Posts: 13668
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 12:22 am
Location: Springfield, MO
Contact:

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by OscarGuy »

I don't really see overwhelming support for Streep. If there were, she would have won more critics prizes than she did.

If Tilda Swinton didn't already have an Oscar, I'd say she was a threat, but for my money, I'm seeing Michelle Williams as a strong candidate to win. I know Harvey's got both Williams and Streep to push, but Williams is the only candidate that really plays towards the ageist voters of the Academy.
Wesley Lovell
"Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both." - Benjamin Franklin
Big Magilla
Site Admin
Posts: 19319
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:22 pm
Location: Jersey Shore

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by Big Magilla »

I don't think anyone has mentioned the parallel to 1982, but I just wrote a comment on CinemaSight in response to Mike Kelly's question about Jessica Chastain.

Chastain's performance in The Help reminds me a lot of Jessica Lange in Tootsie. Like Lange that year, Chastain has already been honored for multiple performances this year. Unlike Lange, she won't have the added benefit of being nominated in both lead and support but like Lange, but it won't be lost on the voters that she gave multiple award worthy performances this year. She's most likely to be nominated aside her co-star in The Help in the supporting category just as Lange's co-star, Terri Garr, was nominated for Tootsie. Just as many deemed Teri Garr's work in Toosite superior to Lange's then, many now single out Octavia Spencer's performance in The Help as superior to Chastain's. I disagree. While I liked Spencer as well as Viola Davis and Sissy Spacek and Cicely Tyson in lesser roles, the one that really bowled me over was Chastain whose character and her playing of her is the freshest element of The Help. Right now she's my pick to win the category.

The Best Actress winner that year was Meryl Streep for Sophie's Choice, who I think will win again this year.

My choice for the supporting actress award in 1982 was Glenn Close for The World Accoridng to Garp who had no real chance of winning against the overwhelming support for Lange. This year Close has no chance of winning against the overwhelming support for Streep. Nor does her co-star in Albert Nobbs, Janet McTerr have any chance of winning over Chastain.
Okri
Tenured
Posts: 3345
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2003 3:28 pm
Location: Edmonton, AB

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by Okri »

I think Tee brought it up, but it's worth mentioning that We Need to Talk About Kevin was one of the big lit-hits of 2005 and probably punches above it's weight-class for name recognition than you'd think for a Lynne Ramsay oddity. I wouldn't be surprised to see it sneak in for a screenplay nod.

Also, wierd connection for the year: Abi Morgan cowrote Shame and wrote The Iron Lady. Just imagine those two films together.
ITALIANO
Emeritus
Posts: 4076
Joined: Mon Jan 06, 2003 1:58 pm
Location: MILAN

Re: Oscar Predictions at Year End

Post by ITALIANO »

mayukh wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:And honestly, a Best Actress race that will probably include names like Meryl Steep, Glenn Close and Tilda Swinton (and Michelle Williams) is objectively one of a very high level.
See, no, I don't buy this. It's a comforting idea but I find it totally wrong-headed when applied to 2011. Even if each one of these very talented actresses is "dependable", this isn't like 1971 where you've got Fonda, Christie, and Jackson, proven great actresses, working at what might be the highest levels they've ever worked at in their careers (Redgrave is my favorite actress but we all know Mary wasn't her finest hour). We're talking about something akin to Spacek being nominated for The River and Lange being nominated for Country. Certifiably talented actresses offering negligible work that's not as illuminating as what we know they're capable of. And this year's realistic alternatives – hell, even Theron and Mara are incredibly impressive – prove more exciting prospects than the work offered to us by women who've proven their talents to us before. Olsen, Colman, Dunst, Paquin – these performances challenge and arouse, and the actresses are dynamic and expressive in ways that the vets are not.

The very fact that you must go back to 1971 shows how right I am. We are talking about the Oscars, and we are talking about the Oscars in the 2000s. The 70s are sadly over, mayukh, and we are talking about a group that recently has chosen Sandra Bullock as the best of the year. In this context, honestly, and even if not at their best, the names of Streep, Swinton, Close, Williams just shine. And anyone who had hopes for Dunst or Paquin or Mara or Colman or call them "realistic alternatives" doesn't know much about the Oscars - which is not a crime, of course, but I have to point it out.

Plus, I don't want to be offensive, but for example Theron and Mara are "incredibly impressive" ACCORDING TO YOU. Let's not forget this. (I still have to see their movies, but I've heard different opinions).
Post Reply

Return to “84th Predictions and Precursors”