Categories One-By-One: Best Supporting Actress

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Post by ITALIANO »

If Adams were in another movie, I could certainly imagine an upset from her. But she's in the same movie, and the truth is that those who saw The Fighter - and loved it, and want to vote for it - will generally pick Leo, if only because she has the showiest role.

So yes, if we talk about upsets, Bonham Carter is the only alternative to Leo (the strong favorite) and Steinfeld (the solid possibility).
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Post by Damien »

If I remember correctly, Amy Adams was pretty much matching Melissa Leo in awards from the early minor groups (Southeast Maine Critics Circle and the like) so I think a lot of people do think she's terrific (and, IMO, unlike Leo, you can't see Adams "acting" -- despite the South Boston accent); plus, there's her versatility -- she has played such a wide range of characters. In addition to Leo's ads, I keep thinking back on Amy Ryan who won most of the critics awards and then came up empty on Oscar night playing another tough mother from Leo's neighborhood. It's just a gut feeling, but I think Helana Bonham Carter's charm in The King's Speech sticks with people and I like her for the upset. Not that I would bet money on it.
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Post by Sabin »

I really don't think she will win, but I'd much prefer her to Leo. She just has so little to do in this film! Were her role expanded, I would certainly agree she had a chance but she's gone for over half of it. I think that being on screen should be a qualifier in some capacity. She's a wonderful actress who has a pleasantly neurotic quality that serves well in capacities as these, but if the Weinsteins cut her part down to size for purposes of streamlining, then they may very well have cost themselves an Oscar. Steinfeld will win if Leo doesn't, and if she cuts her vote with Adams then I hope Adams has the plurality beyond how banging she looks in a see-thru bra.
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Post by Reza »

Big Magilla wrote:Bonham Carter would also be a surprise, but I don't see it happening unless Geoffrey Rush usurps Christian Bale, which could happen. If Rush wins early on, it will become more of a possibility. If he loses, less of one.

True.

Have they announced the sequence the awards will be handed out in?




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Post by Big Magilla »

Bonham Carter would also be a surprise, but I don't see it happening unless Geoffrey Rush usurps Christian Bale, which could happen. If Rush wins early on, it will become more of a possibility. If he loses, less of one.
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Post by Reza »

Mister Tee wrote:By rights, this ought to be Melissa Leo without discussion. She swept the TV prizes just like the other three, with more backing from serious print critics' voting than Ms. Portman received. There's no good reason she should be considered vulnerable while the others are thought to be sailing home free.

Yet she is, because she made some ads that struck some people as tacky (though I wonder if anyone outside of blogs gives a damn about that), and because "this is the category where we have big upsets".

Well..first off..this is the category where we DID have a string of startling upsets -- Geena Davis, Marisa Tomei, Anna Paquin, Juliette Binoche, Marcia Gay Harden. But that's not exactly recent history anymore. The closest we've had to anything comparable since was Tilda Swinton in '07 (and there it was more a case of a wide-open field going to a fresher face in the end). In that same period, Jim Broadbent and Alan Arkin staged unexpected wins...yet no one refers to supporting actor as the new Home of Upsets.

But even if you do subscribe to the notion of the Bad Luck for Front-Runners category...you don't pick Hailee Steinfeld as the beneficiary. I get the reasons why people are now gathering around Steinfeld -- the Tatum O'Neal "precocious child in a clearly leading role" factor. But the obviousness of that is why she WOULDN'T be the upset. Because the key to those 80s/90s upsets was, they came from directions no one was looking. If Sigourney Weaver had competition in '88, it appeared to be coming from McDormand or Pfeiffer. Marisa Tomei was literally the only nominee we thought had zero chance in '92. An Anna Paquin win in '93 seemed as far-fetched as a Juliette Lewis one would have been two years earlier. The unlikelihood of those who actually won was as much a part of this legend as the upset itself.

So, if you're looking for someone to follow in those footsteps...well, even I have trouble believing in Jacki Weaver's chances, given her film's microscopic gross. But I can't shake the notion that Amy Adams could still squeak in. Actually, the real surprise is how little a part of this season she's been, despite reviews on a par with her co-actress, and an obvious ton of industry good will. The fact that she's been ignored by virtually all prize-giving groups obviously works against her. Yet I still hear goodly numbers of people saying she's their choice (two of EW's four sample voters voted for her -- not that that's representative -- and she was doing very well in Nat Rogers' poll last I looked). If Adams were to be the choice, I think there'd be initial surprise, but then a good bit of "we should have seen it coming" after the fact.

I'm not saying this is what'll happen. On my Oscar card, I'm sticking with Leo. But if you're going to predict the upset, predict one that'll really catch people off guard. That's the tradition.

What about Bonham Carter riding a King's Speech sweep?




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Post by Big Magilla »

Exactly.
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Post by Mister Tee »

By rights, this ought to be Melissa Leo without discussion. She swept the TV prizes just like the other three, with more backing from serious print critics' voting than Ms. Portman received. There's no good reason she should be considered vulnerable while the others are thought to be sailing home free.

Yet she is, because she made some ads that struck some people as tacky (though I wonder if anyone outside of blogs gives a damn about that), and because "this is the category where we have big upsets".

Well..first off..this is the category where we DID have a string of startling upsets -- Geena Davis, Marisa Tomei, Anna Paquin, Juliette Binoche, Marcia Gay Harden. But that's not exactly recent history anymore. The closest we've had to anything comparable since was Tilda Swinton in '07 (and there it was more a case of a wide-open field going to a fresher face in the end). In that same period, Jim Broadbent and Alan Arkin staged unexpected wins...yet no one refers to supporting actor as the new Home of Upsets.

But even if you do subscribe to the notion of the Bad Luck for Front-Runners category...you don't pick Hailee Steinfeld as the beneficiary. I get the reasons why people are now gathering around Steinfeld -- the Tatum O'Neal "precocious child in a clearly leading role" factor. But the obviousness of that is why she WOULDN'T be the upset. Because the key to those 80s/90s upsets was, they came from directions no one was looking. If Sigourney Weaver had competition in '88, it appeared to be coming from McDormand or Pfeiffer. Marisa Tomei was literally the only nominee we thought had zero chance in '92. An Anna Paquin win in '93 seemed as far-fetched as a Juliette Lewis one would have been two years earlier. The unlikelihood of those who actually won was as much a part of this legend as the upset itself.

So, if you're looking for someone to follow in those footsteps...well, even I have trouble believing in Jacki Weaver's chances, given her film's microscopic gross. But I can't shake the notion that Amy Adams could still squeak in. Actually, the real surprise is how little a part of this season she's been, despite reviews on a par with her co-actress, and an obvious ton of industry good will. The fact that she's been ignored by virtually all prize-giving groups obviously works against her. Yet I still hear goodly numbers of people saying she's their choice (two of EW's four sample voters voted for her -- not that that's representative -- and she was doing very well in Nat Rogers' poll last I looked). If Adams were to be the choice, I think there'd be initial surprise, but then a good bit of "we should have seen it coming" after the fact.

I'm not saying this is what'll happen. On my Oscar card, I'm sticking with Leo. But if you're going to predict the upset, predict one that'll really catch people off guard. That's the tradition.
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Post by Big Magilla »

Ah, so she was. She received her Oscar two days before her 54th birthday.

Heckart was arguably a bigger name at the time than Melissa Leo is today. Like Leo, it was her second nomination, but her first in sixteen years and she was getting to play a role she originated on Broadway after having lost previous plum Broadway roles to bigger names like Rosalind Russell in Picnic and Eve Arden in The Dark at the Top of the Stairs.
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Post by OscarGuy »

She was 53, but I accidentally skipped her. So, you found a "bitch mother" precedent...so, I guess she has a chance.
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Post by Big Magilla »

Eileen Heckart was 52.
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Post by OscarGuy »

Shit. I was still going by aughts time... Was counting it as 2001....grrr.

But that's actually bad for Leo. Only three actresses have won in this category while in their 50s. Ingrid Bergman, Maureen Stapleton and Olympia Dukakis.

She is like none of these...strangely enough, all three of those winning characters were sympathetic...kindly older lady Melissa Leo is not.
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Post by Big Magilla »

OscarGuy wrote:This category isn't as touchy when it comes to age, so 41-year-old Melissa Leo won't be pushed out based on age.
The last time Melissa Leo saw 41 was two days after the first anniversary of 9/11. She's 50.
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Post by OscarGuy »

The more I hear about Leo, the more I want to say Steinfeld is going to pick up this prize.

This category isn't as touchy when it comes to age, so 41-year-old Melissa Leo won't be pushed out based on age. She also has a previous Oscar nomination, but then so does everyone but Weaver and Steinfeld.

Yet, I can't help but feel Steinfeld has a very good shot at winning. Anna Paquin won over three respected actresses at the time. We knew Hunter wouldn't win since she had Best Actress locked, but most seemed to have been predicting It-girl Winona Ryder. It's not the most apt comparison, but The Piano was a major Oscar player with plenty of nominations to show for it, which makes a Steinfeld win a distinct possibility.
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Post by Big Magilla »

I'm often disappointed, but rarely surprised, by the winners in this category. A win for Leo, Adams, Bonham Carter or Steinfeld would not surprise me. In fact a win for either Adams or Bonham Carter would make me very happy which according to the law of averages means that either Leo or Steinfeld will win it. Still, I'm keeping my fingers crossed until the winner is revealed.
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