2009 box-office Predix - Why not?

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Post by Franz Ferdinand »

I think $63M is being rather generous for what is bound to be a very frontloaded movie. Anyone I know who has seen it is very split, but none of the "likes" loved the movie. I have no idea what its up to right now as I write - possibly still cramming people in - but there will be some less-then-enthusiastic word of mouth keeping some people away. I think an opening in the mid-to-high $50s is more likely, followed by some dramatic drops.



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EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $25M, $6,923 PTA, $25M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $2.43M, $1,130 PTA, $70.13M cume
3. Taken (Fox) - $2.21M, $733 PTA, $112.8M cume
4. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $2.05M, $709 PTA, $120.56M cume
5. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $1.3M, $532 PTA, $81.92M cume
6. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) - $1.27M, $995 PTA, $15.27M cume
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $995,000, $389 PTA, $130.43M cume
8. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $865,000, $378 PTA, $36.1M cume
9. Coraline (Focus) - $725,000, $357 PTA, $63.07M cume
10. Fired Up (Sony) - $700,000, $389 PTA, $11.46M cume

EXCLUSIVE EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Watchmen (Warner Bros) - $62.5M, $19,274 PTA, $69.6M cume
2. Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $8.62M, $4,010 PTA, $76.33M cume
3. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $7.58M, $2,625 PTA, $126.1M cume
4. Taken (Fox) - $7.44M, $2,469 PTA, $118.04M cume
5. Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience (Disney) - $4.95M, $3,882 PTA, $18.95M cume
6. He’s Just Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $4.05M, $1,659 PTA, $84.68M cume
7. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $3.93M, $1,537 PTA, $133.37M cume
8. Coraline (Focus) - $3.11M, $1,591 PTA, $65.48M cume
9. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $2.81M, $1,228 PTA, $38M cume
10. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $2.06M, $1,212 PTA, $63.9M cume


WATCHMEN with $25.2M opening day & a possible $62.5M 3-day, likely the all-time 4th-best start for an R-rated movie!
by Steve Mason

“Who is watching the Watchmen?” Just about everyone…or so it seems.

The brand new film adaptation of the classic graphic comic Watchmen is a hit of monstrous proportions on its opening weekend, but not everyone loves it. In fact, not only is there a prominent character named Rohrschach (played by Oscar nominee Jackie Earle Haley), the film itself is serving as a Rohrschach Test for critics, fanboys and the broader public.

First let’s look at the cold hard numbers. As I first reported Friday morning, the midnight preview screenings generated an estimated $4.5M. Contrary to some reports, that is a huge early sale. E! Online reported that the take was merely “decent,” and one analyst speculated that the picture would finish in the $46M-$50M range for the weekend. The article and analyst were off-the-mark.

There was no way for Watchmen to approach the $18.5M midnight start for lat summer’s The Dark Knight. First off, it is March and not the middle of summer blockbuster season. Kids have school. People are working. These are not the lazy days of July when it is easier for many to see a movie at midnight on Thursday, and hit the office late on Friday. The other factor is the movie’s rating. This is an R-rated movie, not PG-13 like The Dark Knight.

The Thursday night start for Watchmen was 44% better than the $2.5M midnight shows for director Zack Snyder’s last epic 300 (also rated R). It was also virtually double the $2.3M midnight start for November’s Quantum of Solace (PG-13). Those are much better comparables than The Dark Knight or say last year’s PG-13 rated Twilight, which grabbed a reported $7M midnight preview gross.

Watchmen has been spectacular at the box office all day long, and, after consulting with multiple sources, I am projecting a staggering $25.2M (that does include midnight previews) for Friday. That is approximately the 32nd-best opening day in modern box office history, but it is the all-time #12 opening day for a non-sequel.

ALL-TIME TOP 15 OPENING DAYS FOR A NON-SEQUEL
1. Spider-Man - $39.4M
2. Twilight - $35.9M
3. Iron Man - $35.2M
4. Harry Potter & the Sorcerer’s Stone - $32.3M
5. The Simpsons Movie - $30.7M
6. I Am Legend - $30M
7. The Da Vinci Code - $28.6M
8. 300 - $28.1M
9. Transformers - $27.8M
10. Sex & The City - $26.7M
11. The Passion of the Christ - $26.5M
12. Watchmen - $25.2M (projected)
13. Planet of the Apes - $24.6M
14. Hulk - $24.2M
15. The Day After Tomorrow - $23.5M

When the numbers get this big, and the movie is this front-loaded, 3-day projections are problematic, but I am going with $62.5M (my final prediction on published Wednesday was $63M). It is possible that the movie will manage a better “internal multiplier” and start inching closer to $70M, but I am at $62.5M for now. If the number holds, that would give Watchmen the all-time #4 opening weekend for an R-rated movie, trailing only Matrix Reloaded, Passion of the Christ (which had better source material contrary to what fanboys may believe) and Snyder’s 300.

ALL-TIME TOP 10 OPENINGS FOR AN R-RATED MOVIE
1. The Matrix Reloaded - $91.7M
2. The Passion of the Christ - $83.8M
3. 300 - $70.8M
4. Watchmen - $62.5M (projected)
5. Hannibal - $58M
6. Sex & The City - $57M
7. 8 Mile - $51.2M
8. Wanted - $50.9M
9. The Matrix Revolutions - $48.5M
10. Troy - $46.8M

One interesting facet of this movie is the fact that three different major studios have a piece of the action. Warner Bros owns domestic distribution rights, Paramount has the foreign and Fox, which won a very public battle over the rights to the movie, is getting 5%-8.5% of gross participation that will be set by the film’s worldwide revenue success. That puts an awful lot of powerful Hollywood types on the same team, working to ensure Warchmen’s success.

Critics are divided about Watchmen as a movie. The movie has a 65% Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but the most established critics – what Rotten Tomatoes classifies as the Cream of the Crop – has generated a lower 43% positive reviews. Here’s a sampling from writers that I know and like.

Joe Morgenstern of the Wall Street Journal –
“The reverence is inert, the violence noxious, the mythology murky, the tone grandiose, the texture glutinous. It’s an alternate version of The Incredibles minus the delight.”

Pete Hammond, Hollywood.com -
“A stunning, mind-bending, breathtaking densely-packed motion picture experience.”

David Poland, Movie City News -
“The problem with Watchmen is, in the end, that it is a bit of a big stiff bore for two acts with an improved, but mostly uninspired third act. Look at Watchmen from the back to the front. Do you care about what has happened to any of these characters, except Rorschach, by the time you leave the theater?”

Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times -
“After the revelation of The Dark Knight here is Watchmen, another bold exercise in the liberation of the superhero movie. It’s a compelling visceral film.”

Obviously, the reviews are all over the board. Although, there’s no question that the writer of the original Watchmen graphic novel, the enigmatic Alan Moore, hates the movie, it’s just as certain that he has not and will never see it. In fact, he put a curse on the whole project.

Director Zack Snyder signed on for a gig that proved too tough and too problematic for the likes of brilliant filmmakers like Terry Gilliam (The Fisher King, Twelve Monkeys), Darren Aronofsky (The Wrestler, The Fountain) and Paul Greengrass (United 93, The Bourne Ultimatum). Perhaps Alan Moore is right. His book is “inherently unfilmable.” There’s no way to pack the dense details of the brilliant 1986 landmark into a movie – even when it’s 2 hours, 43 minutes long.

I am a huge fan of the graphic novel having read it in college. I deliberately didn’t re-read Watchmen in advance of the movie because I think it needs to be judged as its own individual piece of work. Snyder’s problem all along has been, “How do you make a movie that both satisfies hardcore fans and is accessible enough for people who have never even heard of Watchmen?”

For the time being, the spectacle, the buzz, the fanboy fervor and a pitch-perfect marketing campaign have set the stage for an historic 3-day opening. Once the mainstream audience discovers that Watchmen is more about ideas than it is about heroes with capes, it will be interesting to see how it holds up. For comparison’s sake, 300 fell 53% from its opening weekend of $70.8M, but the drop-off will almost certainly be bigger here.

300 ended up at $210.6M domestic and $456M worldwide, but Watchmen is likely to fall short of those numbers. In fact, whereas 300 finished with a 2.97 multiple (2.97 X $70.8M = total domestic box), Watchmen is more likely to be in the 2.5-2.6 range. That would translate to a, still impressive, final US gross of $155M-$160M.
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Post by rolotomasi99 »

Zahveed wrote:
Greg wrote:
OscarGuy wrote:I find it most amusing that people are surprised that the movie biz is doing well during a recession/depression.

I had thought that, perhaps, in this economic downturn people might go more for the almost-free Internet than movies.

You can't beat three story picture and top-notch surround sound.
have you seen the movies they are giving away at hulu? sure the selection is not huge, but there is certainly a wide range of films to choose from -- heavy dramas (REQUIEM FOR A DREAM and 21 GRAMS) to light comedies (THE MUSE and WAKING NED DEVINE), giant flops (SPEED 2 and HOWARD THE DUCK) to blockbusters (FATAL ATTRACTION and THE KARATE KID), cult classics (SLACKER and THE THING) to celebrated classics (WUTHERING HEIGHTS and LAST TANGO IN PARIS).

yeah, i am glad i saw films like THE DARK KNIGHT and MILK on the big screen, but when they tacked 20 minutes of advertising plus another 20 minutes of trailers on the already butt-numbing running time of THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON, i felt pissed that i had to pay $10 for a ticket.

another thing i do not understand about these inexplicable successes (PAUL BLART, TAKEN, HE'S JUST NO THAT INTO YOU), they are not the amazing spectacle films of the summer or the gorgeously made oscar films of the fall. i thought the spring films were supposed to be the studio rejects. of the nearly 30 films that made more than $100 million in 2008, only HORTON HEARS A WHO (march) and EAGLE EYE (january) were released prior to may. in 2009, we have just begun march and we already have three films who will end up making more the $100 m (the three previously mentioned).

we still have WATCHMEN, I LOVE YOU MAN, MONSTERS VS ALIENS, and FAST AND FURIOUS coming out before may begins, all likely to make more than a $100 m. i think january to april is no longer seen as the dumping ground for crap films. i can think of a few films from last years summer clusterfuck which could have benefited from a spring release (i am looking at you HELLBOY 2).
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Post by OscarGuy »

I think the reason it's being suggested as the reason for the upswing in box office numbers is that the quality of picture being released during these periods hasn't increased and compared to what was released in this time period last year and the year before, the films are not only not better. Take for instance the success of Madea Goes to Jail. Tyler Perry is a bankable name at the box office, there is no question of that. However, when he tops the box office with $41 M after being projected in the $20 M range, that Paul Blart: Mall Cop, getting a 5.5 rating over at imdb compared with James' last film with Adam Sandler no less getting a 6.2 at imdb, yet Paul Blart is currently at $128 M while I Pronounce You Chuck & Larry ended with $120 M is a sign there are outside influences.

Is it the sole reason? Certainly not...Paul Blart opened in January against limited competition while Chuck and Larry opened in the Summer against holdovers. Another example is the Friday the 13th remake has already eclipsed the Halloween remake, both popular horror franchises, yet historically Friday films always underperformed compared to Halloween films and imdb only shows the two competing 6.3 (Friday) to 6.0 (Halloween). Again, August vs. February, but August is at least the doldrums of the summer where holdovers don't necessarily perform as well. So, there is evidence to suggest that it's not the quality of product bringing people to the multiplex but a desire for escapism.

We'll definitely wait until the end of the recession to fully gauge its effects, but right now, the trend seems to be favoring the recessionary entertainment spending argument.
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Post by Mister Tee »

I'd actually argue that "people are going to the movies in droves because of the economy" is a meme the mainstream press has settled on too quickly because of the oft-noted high attendance duiring the original Great Depression.

I mean, it's only the second day of March. Box office, for all we know, could decline over the next weeks/months. This has been a rather brief period of upturn on which to make such sweeping pronouncements. But people have so internalized the "fact" that attendance soared during the depression that they want to believe this is an unstoppable trend.
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Post by Franz Ferdinand »

Not to mention the high quality movies we have seen opened in the past two months, right? Right?
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Post by Big Magilla »

There is truth in what both Oscar Guy and cam have said.

Remember there was no TV in the 30s, radio was the best poeple could do at home. Movies were a cheap entertainment - 10-25 cents a ticket at most theatres and they gave things away - china, much needed dishes for the masses. Escapist entertainment was what drew the most viewers whether they were musicals, gangster dramas, screeball comedies or westerns.

In most cases there was a main feature, a second feature, a cartoon, a short subject and several trailers, four hours of entertainment for that dime of that quarter. First run theatres in major cities that premiered one film without a second feature often had a stage show to give the customers their monies' worth.

This practice, sans the giveaways, lasted through the early sixties despite the advent of television, although prices creeped up a bit.

Today's movies not only have to compete with programmed television but tivoed programming, DVDs, video games and the internet and they're expensive as hell. It's a different ballgame, but people still need to get out of the house once in a while and as expensive as a night at the movies may be it's still cheaper than an out-of-town getaway.
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Post by cam »

OscarGuy wrote:they never studied film history because the film business was doing quite well during the Great Depression because it was a way to entertain themselves and get their minds off their economic troubles.
Two reasons: they gave away china and other household goods in the theatres during the Depression; sound had just come in-- musicals were big.
Read Damien's first book. It is full of information about movie-going in the thirties.
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Post by OscarGuy »

There's also a psychology that in tough times, people need to spend their money somewhere...otherwise, they don't feel 100% right. And a night at the movies, escaping as a family, is a great way to give you that feeling that you're not so barren you can't spend anything while not spending an arm and a leg. But it's one reason why Netflix isn't seeing a dip in profits at all...
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Post by Zahveed »

Greg wrote:
OscarGuy wrote:I find it most amusing that people are surprised that the movie biz is doing well during a recession/depression.

I had thought that, perhaps, in this economic downturn people might go more for the almost-free Internet than movies.
You can't beat three story picture and top-notch surround sound.
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Post by Greg »

OscarGuy wrote:I find it most amusing that people are surprised that the movie biz is doing well during a recession/depression.
I had thought that, perhaps, in this economic downturn people might go more for the almost-free Internet than movies.
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Post by OscarGuy »

I find it most amusing that people are surprised that the movie biz is doing well during a recession/depression. Apparently, they never studied film history because the film business was doing quite well during the Great Depression because it was a way to entertain themselves and get their minds off their economic troubles. The Filmic Depression didn't come until after the economy had recovered...that and the evolution of TV, which didn't help matters.
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Post by Greg »

The 2009 U.S. box office is still booming despite the depression:

Jonas Brothers ride box office boom
Best picture 'Slumdog Millionaire' expanding


By DAVE MCNARY, PAMELA MCCLINTOCK

More people are going to the movies despite the bad economy -- or because of it.
Domestic theater admissions were up an unheard of 9.3% in January and February, usually one of the slowest times of the year.

In North America, revenues are up 13% for the first two months of 2009, clocking in at $1.62 billion through Tuesday, according to Rentrak.


Admissions also are on the rise overseas. However, the vagaries of currency exchange, including a stronger dollar, are hurting Hollywood.

The six major studios have seen a decline of more than 10% in revenues from foreign markets for the first two months of the year.

The value of the euro is off 20% compared with a year ago and the British pound has declined more than 35%. But, overall, international moviegoing remains decent in terms of local admissions and currency compared with a year ago.

Back home, admissions are often down even when revenues are up, thanks to increased ticket prices. This year's spike in actual foot traffic bucks that trend.

This weekend, observers will be watching to see if Disney's new entry "Jonas Brothers: The 3D Concert Experience" continues the box office boom.

That boom has seen several notable films beating expectations and racking up sizeable grosses. Last weekend, Lionsgate's "Tyler Perry's Madea Goes to Jail" opened to $41 million, the best bow of any Perry pic, as well as any Lionsgate release.

Three films -- Warners' "Gran Torino," Sony's "Paul Blart: Mall Cop" and Fox Searchlight's Oscar winner "Slumdog Millionaire" -- have all crossed the $100 million mark this year.

"Torino's" cume through Tuesday was $135.5 million; "Mall Cop's," $122.2 million; and "Slumdog's," $101.9 million.

On Friday, Searchlight expands "Slumdog" to 2,943 theaters in the wake of the film's Oscar wins. It's the widest release in Searchlight's history.

It's been a good winter for the Fox family. The big studio's sleeper hit "Taken," with a gross of $96.5 million, should jump the $100 million mark by Sunday.

Distribs say they've never seen so many January and February films do this kind of business.

There have been casualties, however.

Disney's "Confessions of a Shopaholic," produced by Jerry Bruckheimer, hasn't caught on. The Isla Fisher starrer has grossed $28.3 million since its Feb. 13 release, compared with a cume of $71.4 million for New Line/Warner Bros.' "He's Just Not That Into You," which opened one week earlier.

Sony's suspense drama "The International," released the same day as "Confessions," has done even less business, cuming $17.8 million through Tuesday. Studio said the film could have a strong run overseas. Pic launches this weekend in Russia, South Korea, the U.K. and more than a dozen other markets. It's cumed $5.5 million from a limited launch so far in seven markets, mostly from Germany.

Besides "Jonas Brothers," the only other wide release at the domestic B.O. this weekend is Hyde Park's "Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li," which Fox opens today in 1,136 runs. Pic doesn't have much buzz, but it will have an advantage if it can draw young males, since they likely won't be going to see "Jonas Brothers."

B.O. observers will be watching to see if "Jonas Brothers" can match last year's $32.1 million opening of Disney's 3-D "Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour."

The forecast for "Jonas Brothers" is all over the map. Advance ticket sales aren't anywhere near the levels of those for "Hannah Montana," although the latter was billed as a one-week run, which boosted pre-sales. Regardless, "Jonas Brothers," opening in 1,271 3-D theaters, will have no trouble winning the weekend.

The Disney machine is hoping that "Jonas Brothers" will be a must-see for tween and teen girls. During their recent concert tour, the pop band incited near-mayhem among fans.

Some say Cyrus' fanbase is bigger since she's the star of her own Disney show. The Jonas Brothers have appeared on Disney television, but their own show won't begin to air until summer. At the same time, the trio has seen wild success with its music, including being nominated for a Grammy for new artist.

Disney Records is simultaneously releasing a soundtrack of the film.

Around the world

Overseas, the top performer of 2009 is Warner Bros. Intl.'s "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," with a cume of more than $160 million. "Button" has led the international B.O. for three straight sessions and will probably top what's looking like a moderate session this weekend.

"Australia" has managed to salvage a disappointing domestic run with $150 million internationally -- three times the domestic total, led by $23 million in Australia and $15 million each in France, Germany and Spain. This weekend, "Australia" goes into Japan, its final major market.

"Valkyrie," handled by Fox overseas, has cumed roughly $85 million in foreign markets, outdistancing the domestic run by more than $10 million. It's opening in China this weekend.

http://www.variety.com/article....13&cs=1
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Post by MovieWes »

EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES

1. NEW - Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $14M, $6,890 PTA, $14M cume
2. Taken (Fox) - $3.25M, $1,050 PTA, $87M cume
3. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $3.2M, $1,031 PTA, $50.37M cume
4. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $3M, $984 PTA, $64.54M cume
5. Coraline (Focus) - $2.8M, $1,299 PTA, $45.13M cume
6. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $2.62M, $1,047 PTA, $23.26M cume
7. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) - $2.5M, $1,381 PTA, $2.5M cume
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $1.54M, $545 PTA, $115.92M cume
9. The International (Sony) - $1.42M, $604 PTA, $14M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $1.2M, $535 PTA, $91.16M cume
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $1.13M, $425 PTA, $26.8M cume
12. Push (Summit) - $952,000, $506 PTA, $22.5M cume

EXCLUSIVE EARLY WEEKEND ESTIMATES

1. NEW - Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes To Jail (Lionsgate) - $39.2M, $19,291 PTA, $39.2M cume
2. Coraline (Focus) - $11.2M, $5,197 PTA, $53.53M cume
3. Taken (Fox) - $10.7M, $3,449 PTA, $94.45M cume
4. He’s Not That Into You (Warner Bros) - $9.5M, $3,115 PTA, $71M cume
5. Friday the Thirteenth (Warner Bros) - $9.2M, $2,963 PTA, $56.37M cume
6. Confessions of a Shopaholic (Disney) - $8.5M, $3,391 PTA, $29.13M cume
7. NEW – Fired Up (Sony) - $6.8M, $3,757 PTA, $6.8M cume
8. Paul Blart: Mall Cop (Sony) - $5.4M, $1,908 PTA, $119.78M cume
9. The International (Sony) - $4.56M, $1,932 PTA, $17.13M cume
10. Slumdog Millionaire (Fox Searchlight) - $4.5M, $2,005 PTA, $94.46M cume
11. Pink Panther 2 (Sony) - $3.72M, $1,403 PTA, $29.4M cume
12. Gran Torino (Warner Bros) - $3.09M, $1,522 PTA, $133.88M cume

It should also be noted that The Dark Knight finally surpassed $1 billion worldwide yesterday.




Edited By MovieWes on 1235252031
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Post by Zahveed »

Most of the people I knew that saw Juno saw it before the Oscar nods when it got the wide release on Christmas. I think the holiday season and the college crowd had more to do with it than any award attention.
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