The Biden-Harris Era

[Sabin]

Aaaand the Texas Abortion Ban takes effect. We're really gonna start feeling the effect of that 6-3 conservative Supreme Court soon. Can't wait to see what a 7-2 conservative Supreme Court feels like. Thanks, Breyer!

https://www.npr.org/2021/09/01/10332021 ... ppens-next

[Big Magilla]

You don't need to go to Canada or the U.K. to find this kind of garbage. Murdoch newspapers in the U.S. like the N.Y. Post are just as bad.

The military-industrial complex and their supporters will spin this with all their might but it won't get traction. Everyone feels bad about the interpreters left behind but a lot of that is due to the red tape imposed by Trump and Miller that kept them from being processed sooner.

Biden's numbers will go back up. He still has the support of most Democrats. The Independents he's lost are not really independents. They're Republicans ashamed of admitting that they are Republicans, just not Trump Republicans.

[Sabin]

TODAY IN "THINGS YOU SHOULD NEVER FUCKING SAY THAT WAY:"

Afghanistan crisis: Biden says 90% of Americans who wanted out were evacuated

https://globalnews.ca/video/8156253/afg ... -evacuated

IN OTHER NEWS:

Sixty House Republicans already demand: Biden should resign or be impeached after midterms.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... leted.html

It's gonna be a fun... I was going to say four years, but hell, at this point? Rest of my life.

[Sabin]

Big Magilla wrote
It's entirely possible that Trump and numerous Congressional Republicans could be behind bars before the midterms for their still not completely proven roles in the January 6 insurrection. It will probably never happen, but neither will Biden's removal from office even if the asshats do impeach him in the next congress.

I'm not sure people care about the Capitol Riots. They should, but I'm not sure they do. I'm also not sure they care about Afghanistan. I think they just think that the Democrats aren't doing anything to help them. Biden is already at 47%.

Anyway, yes, Biden won't be removed. Although 270 currently says we're going to lose four seats in the Senate (54-46) next year. I thought we had a strong map that favored us. Turns out we do in that if we didn't he'd be gone. They would need 60 seats to remove Biden from office and the only remaining seats are in pretty safe although who knows? Larry Elder might become my governor and maybe something happens to DiFi. That's one right there. So, it looks like Joe Biden is safe until the end of his first term. The 2024 map? Hoo boy! We're defending Nevada, Arizona, Montana, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, West Virginia, Pennsylvania... Good night! That's a definite pathway to 60 Senate seats for Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. Or a fairly strong majority for whatever Republican gets in.


In other news, conservative media group Axel Springer is acquiring POLITICO. We're losing a misinformation war.

https://twitter.com/KaivanShroff/status ... 5800181764

[Big Magilla]

Lindsey Graham should be impeached for bullshit, along with most of the Republicans in Congress today, but that's not going to happen.

It's entirely possible that Trump and numerous Congressional Republicans could be behind bars before the midterms for their still not completely proven roles in the January 6 insurrection. It will probably never happen, but neither will Biden's removal from office even if the asshats do impeach him in the next congress.

[Sabin]

Lindsay Graham just appeared on Sean Hannity and said that Joe Biden should be impeached because pulling out of Afghanistan will "make it harder to fight future wars." Don't worry. Republicans will come around once Trump is gone. Joe Biden's going to get them to work together.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/569 ... -impeached

So, in 2022 we lose the House of Representatives without a doubt. Probably the Senate as well but who knows? The map favors us a bit. Then in 2023, we get another impeachment.

[Sonic Youth]

Quo Vadis, Aida feels exceptionally relevant today.

[Big Magilla]

Perhaps, but right now I'm watching MSNBC where they are showing newspaper headlines around the country where Afghanistan is taking a backseat to COVID and school news. Sadly, apparently the majority of the country doesn't care any more about the Afghans they did before.

By election time next year, unless there is some catastrophic news out of Afghanistan, the Trump-Pompeo travesty that started this will be played up by the Dems as much as Biden's fiasco is played up the Repubs.

It is entirely possible that the Taliban will present a world view of Sharia Law similar to that of Iran in which women and girls have some freedom. What happens behind the curtain is, of course, another story.

[Sabin]

Obviously, there are more important things to discuss re: Afghanistan than simply electoral politics but because this thread is titled "Biden-Harris Era." Both sides of the aisle are flipping out over the way Biden has departed from Afghanistan. Is this a Foreign Military Failure?

Allan Lichtman's definition of a Foreign Military Failure seems less perception based than his definition of a Success. Republicans tried hard to make Benghazi into a trap for both Obama and Clinton but it didn't stick. Or did it? Either way, the Foreign Military Failure Key has turned False four times in the last fifty years: the fall of Saigon in 1976, Operation Eagle Claw in 1980, the attacks of 9/11 in 2004, and the failure of the War in Iraq in 2008. The election is over three years away and we have no idea how bad things are going to get but it seems as though nobody expected the Taliban to take over this quickly. Rick Scott is already talking about the 25th Amendment. Republicans have been desperate to find anything to attack Biden on that will stick. To Biden's credit, he's sticking to his guns. But at the very least, it's being perceived as a failure on both sides of the aisle.

Ironically, we've seen Lichtman's definitions of Foreign Military Success six times over the last fifty years: in 1972, in 1980, in 1988, in 1992, in 2004, and in 2012. I would imagine those are respectively: Nixon and China, Carter's Peace Treaty, the Fall of the Berlin Wall, The Gulf War, skipping 2004 for now, and killing Osama Bin Laden. But according to Allan Lichtman, the Republicans procured the Foreign Military Success Key going into 2004, giving them a total of 9 True Keys and 4 False Keys. I was wracking my brain trying to figure out what could constitute a Foreign Military Success.

Well, I found it...

The president’s response to the September 11 attack including the expulsion of the Taliban from Afghanistan and the capture of Saddam Hussein secures the foreign/military success key.

I know 2004 was a long time ago (children born during that election will be able to vote in next year's midterms) but my perception of George W. Bush landing on that hangar with the "Mission Accomplished" banner was that it was a gross miscalculation. I guess echo chambers were a thing before Twitter because Allan Lichtman took it as a victory. Either way, whatever mission George W. Bush accomplished, Joe Biden will pay for.

The Biden administration now will almost certainly have to contend with the certain losses of the Midterm Key, the Foreign Military Failure Key, and the Incumbent Charisma Key. This is probably time for a massive peace treaty.

[Reza]

Now sit back and watch the talibans sell the country to China.

From your mouth to God's ears. And would that be a bad move? Just as long as their influence doesn't enter Pakistan even though the damn seeds are already sown here.

China will not happen though.

[Big Magilla]

Staggering that the photo op is IDENTICAL to leaving Saigon. As someone who wasn't there at the time, I would welcome any board elders to tell me what it was like seeing that happen in real time even though, well, it doesn't matter because there wasn't 24/7 news, social media, and ongoing political strife.

I have no memory of the fall of Saigon in real time. It happened on April 30, 1975 under the presidency of Gerald Ford. I don't know when that famous picture was published, but it wasn't immediate. The New York Times cover story of May 1, 1975 was of the rescue efforts of the U.S. military to pick up Vietnamese who fled the country on boats and Kissinger's statement that we may shelter 70,000.

Afghanistan is land-locked. There won't be any escape by sea. It's either fly out the Afghans who helped us or leave them to perish at the hands of the Taliban who are already hunting them down.

I agree with Biden that it was time to leave but the exit was completely bungled. The translators and other Afghans who helped us should have been brought out in May and June.

[mlrg]

Of course I wasn’t alive at the time and I’m not American but the only thing similar between what is happening in Kabul and what happened in Saigon is pictured in that photo. Other than that there is zero geo political correlation.

Now sit back and watch the talibans sell the country to China.

[Sabin]

Staggering that the photo op is IDENTICAL to leaving Saigon. As someone who wasn't there at the time, I would welcome any board elders to tell me what it was like seeing that happen in real time even though, well, it doesn't matter because there wasn't 24/7 news, social media, and ongoing political strife.

[Big Magilla]

Too soon to tell.

Being from Buffalo should help her with the rural vote. If she doesn't make any missteps, she would likely run. If she does, there are plenty of downstate (NYC) sharks to jump in, starting with De Blasio.

Whoever it is, would likely beat whoever the Republicans come up with.

[Sabin]

What are Kathy Hochul's chances in 2022, assuming she runs? It's a midterm that likely favors the GOP. Cuomo's margins through 2018, 2014, and 2010, were 59.6%, 54.3%, and 63.0%. Solid enough majorities. Does being from Buffalo help her?