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Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 7:02 am
by Okri
Big Magilla wrote:All true, but what the "all or noting" progressives don't see is that if Trump gets another term it will be worse than four more years of the same after which the country will not suddenly wake up and elect their guys. We're at the crossroads. It's good vs. evil with no room for sitting on the sidelines. A non-vote or vote for anyone other than Biden is a vote for Trump.
Who do you mean here?

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 1:15 am
by Big Magilla
All true, but what the "all or noting" progressives don't see is that if Trump gets another term it will be worse than four more years of the same after which the country will not suddenly wake up and elect their guys. We're at the crossroads. It's good vs. evil with no room for sitting on the sidelines. A non-vote or vote for anyone other than Biden is a vote for Trump.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2020 6:23 pm
by OscarGuy
The "I won't vote Biden even if he's better than Trump" mentality is a very selfish thing. I don't think I've seen many non-White voters take that position. It seems like the people saying it are also the people who don't really lose much in a Trump second term. They think Biden is somehow just more of the same, but as someone posted recently, a transgender representative who says she owes her election to Biden supporting her against all odds.

That's where I think the problem is. Everyone who isn't Bernie or AOC seems CERTAIN that anyone who isn't them is a centrist. They said it about Biden, Harris, Hillary, Pelosi. Yet, these four candidates are far more liberal even than Obama was. Biden supported gay marriage well before Obama finally changed his stance. Hillary's policy positions were far closer to Sanders than people gave her credit for. Harris, depending on which organization you go with is either as liberal as Bernie or more liberal. And Pelosi, she represents one of the most heavily democratic districts in the country and has an incredibly liberal voting record.

The reason these people don't like them is not because they aren't hyper liberal, but because they are all pragmatic. Even Warren who is, on some issues, far left of Bernie (see reparations issues), is a pragmatic progressive. They know that it can take years for the public sentiment to shift in the direction of support. Today, it's shifting far faster than it used to, but that's a byproduct of the rise of a prolific younger generation and a diversification of the American electorate. They believe that if you cannot win immediate change, sitting on your hands until you can get it will be a winning strategy for them.

Four years later, the despot in the white house has shifted so far back to the right that finally bringing us back in the direction of positive improvement will take at least four years to dig out of and then another four to twelve to get implemented. They are no different than Trump. If they don't get what they want, they take their ball and go home, damned anyone else who gets hurt along the way. They claim to support freedom and equality, but then refuse to step up and try to achieve it just because they didn't get the candidate they want. Four years ago or this year.

And let's be honest, not all Bernie supporters are like this. Many of them see the existential threat that Trump IS and want to make sure that he doesn't get another four unfettered years to destroy the hopes and dreams of millions of Americans and kill another 200,000 Americans because of his egocentrism.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2020 3:32 pm
by Sonic Youth
Okri wrote:
Big Magilla wrote: If this kind of thinking prevails, it could tank tank the Dem's chances for the rest of my lifetime.
We've been told repeatedly by the centrist group that that the Bernie supporters who cant support Biden are such a fringe group that they dont need to be worried about. If they aren't then its incumbent upon the Democrats to extend them an olive branch. And not, say, support a primary challenge against the senator cosponsoring the Green New Deal. They cant be disregarded as unimportant but blamed of the Democrats lose. And we just know that's what's going to happen.
I'm currently living in Massachusetts. Just about everyone here is furious at Pelosi for her hypocritical stunt. Markey has been pulling way ahead in the polls as of late, so I hope that gives you some relief. I (used to) like her, and I've tried to stick up for her against lots of criticism, but that was an utterly repulsive ploy. Kneecapping her former colleague of 37 years is crazy, and on the last day of the convention, a ceremony that's supposed to prioritize party unity. Pelosi said this would be her final term as speaker. That's a very good idea.

As for your broader point, part of it is the belief that youthful leftists are probably less likely to go out and vote for anyone (I guess that's what makes them "fringe"), while Never-Trump Republicans and independents/unaffiliateds are more likely. I can understand wanting to risk very little in order to win this election, but there's a chance that down-ballot Democrats might get sacrificed with this strategy.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2020 2:23 pm
by Sabin
Big Magilla wrote
My concern is not so much the Trump lovers. His angry old men (and women) supporters will die out and the younger ones will (hopefully) be in the minority. I am more concerned about the young people, including a 31-year-old nephew, an ardent Bernie supporter who would vote for AOC in a heartbeat, who wrote this nonsense on Facebook today:

"I will write in my choice for this election. I honestly want Trump gone as much as the next person, but I do not trust Biden/Harris, and I will not sell out what I believe in for someone who (GRANTED) is better than Trump, but not better for the count…"

If this kind of thinking prevails, it could tank tank the Dem's chances for the rest of my lifetime.
I'm going to sit this post out because it has nothing to do with my point, replacing my long-term concerns about the Democratic Party (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's political future, our long-term economic future, a populist right) with an anecdote about irresponsible young people.

Like you, I am concerned about young people as well. Extraordinarily.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:04 pm
by Okri
Big Magilla wrote: If this kind of thinking prevails, it could tank tank the Dem's chances for the rest of my lifetime.
We've been told repeatedly by the centrist group that that the Bernie supporters who cant support Biden are such a fringe group that they dont need to be worried about. If they aren't then its incumbent upon the Democrats to extend them an olive branch. And not, say, support a primary challenge against the senator cosponsoring the Green New Deal. They cant be disregarded as unimportant but blamed of the Democrats lose. And we just know that's what's going to happen.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:40 pm
by Big Magilla
Sabin wrote:Quick anecdote: my father's girlfriend recently asked what I thought of Ilhan Omar and I explained that she makes it very hard to defend her at this point. She went onto say "Get rid of all of them [The Squad]. They're all anti-Semitic." This is a lifelong Democrat. Nothing I could do could shake her conviction that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez needed to literally be silenced. For many older voters that I've encountered, Ocasio-Cortez represents a lot of generational trigger points. She fights views that are misogynist and racist... but also ageist. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez isn't afraid to look and sound young and urgent about issues like climate change. I like that about her.
Most of my extended family (7 living siblings, their significant others, numerous nieces and nephews and their significant others) are strong Biden?Harris supporters. I do have some cousins who are Trump lovers, but I try to avoid them.

My concern is not so much the Trump lovers. His angry old men (and women) supporters will die out and the younger ones will (hopefully) be in the minority. I am more concerned about the young people, including a 31-year-old nephew, an ardent Bernie supporter who would vote for AOC in a heartbeat, who wrote this nonsense on Facebook today:

"I will write in my choice for this election. I honestly want Trump gone as much as the next person, but I do not trust Biden/Harris, and I will not sell out what I believe in for someone who (GRANTED) is better than Trump, but not better for the count…"

If this kind of thinking prevails, it could tank tank the Dem's chances for the rest of my lifetime.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2020 11:38 am
by Sabin
Okri wrote
VII. This goes back to what Sabin said about Obama’s legacy. “There isn’t going to be a President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.” I don’t know if he’s right or not but fuck me that’s depressing.
I could respond to all of your excellent points all day, but...

It all comes down to who's in charge when the house of cards falls down and who's on deck to steer the ship in a new direction. If Donald Trump gets reelected (which I doubt), and we see another crash, it becomes easy to imagine the country lurching in a populist left direction. But if it's a member of the Obama-Biden-Harris coalition which is marked by an appreciation of our systems, then we're going to get some populist right-winger. Who even knows what Trump-ism even looks like in a couple of election cycles as we move forward into this new already-Children of Men-looking century? And considering that I see Biden-Harris looking good for two election cycles, my money is on the latter nightmare down the line.

At some point, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez will run for President. Unless she just desperately doesn't want to, it's hard to imagine that day not happening when she could finance her entire campaign with a single tweet. She speaks to the intersections between class, race, and gender very well, which I think is paramount (astonished unemployment wasn't spoken about more at the DNC). I still think her candidacy would be very exciting. She would likely have my vote in a second. Her biggest hurdle is timing. It would take an economic collapse during her candidacy (probably not preceding) for her to win. But beyond timing, she'll face quite a few hurdles: getting past conservative South Carolina in the primary, appealing to a broad coalition of Dem voters on Super Tuesday, and facing a general electorate that has been taught to hate her by our news, on both the right and the left. I'll be frank: I fear for her life.

Quick anecdote: my father's girlfriend recently asked what I thought of Ilhan Omar and I explained that she makes it very hard to defend her at this point. She went onto say "Get rid of all of them [The Squad]. They're all anti-Semitic." This is a lifelong Democrat. Nothing I could do could shake her conviction that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez needed to literally be silenced. For many older voters that I've encountered, Ocasio-Cortez represents a lot of generational trigger points. She fights views that are misogynist and racist... but also ageist. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez isn't afraid to look and sound young and urgent about issues like climate change. I like that about her.

Last year, Barack Obama said this in an address to liberal donors:
This is still a country that is less revolutionary than it is interested in improvement. They like seeing things improved. But the average American doesn't think that we have to completely tear down the system and remake it. And I think it's important for us not to lose sight of that.
I wonder if he would say that today... Probably yes, to be honest.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 10:26 pm
by OscarGuy
To only address a small part of your post, the reason Harris flamed out is threefold, I believe.

The first reason is that she couldn't find a lane to run in and dithered about whether to run as a progressive (her Senate record) or a moderate (her California record). That hem-hawing kept her from finding a way past multiple others in one lane and Sanders/Warren in the other.

The second reason is that Biden was bolstered by Obama's coalition of voters. Being the second banana to the first Black president may have bolstered his support and after what the Black community has seen, especially in the wake of the Trump administration, they were looking for a stabilizing force and that early support, even if modestly warranted, helped bolster him in South Carolina and then into California where Harris couldn't lock up her home state, which made her seem less than ideal.

The third factor is that she hired her sister to run her campaign. Her sister was very clearly Not Ready for Prime Time. She needed someone more knowledgeable and more skilled to run a focused campaign. That her sister rubbed her campaign staff the wrong way and multiple voices failed to unify around a clear vision for the campaign killed it off.

Now, under Biden as VP, she has prime cut staff coordinated through the presidential campaign staff, which should help fix some of those issues and, if she can prove her progressive bona fides over the next two months (and hopefully four years as VP), I think she would be in a better position to make a run in 2024 or 2028 depending.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:44 pm
by Okri
Thanks for your responses, Tee. There’s a whole bunch of things I want to respond to and I’ve stopped/started writing this a couple times, so let’s see exactly how coherent I’ll be.

I. If we take your basic premise to be foundational – that is, margins were so thin that the Comey/Manafort chicanery was enough to sway things – we can’t neglect the idea of that repeating itself. Witness the GOP’s sustained attacks on the ability to vote. Florida instituting Jim Crow fine payments but refusing the fund the departments to let former convicts know how much they owe. The attacks on the post office and mail in voting. The reduction in visibility and number of polling stations. But following that, the fact that it was as close as it was remains, to me, a devastating development that in and of itself legitimately makes me sad. Trump won because people didn’t think he could win is not exculpatory. Beyond that, though, I don’t want my rhetoric to obscure my fear that Trump returns to office next year. I’ll be frank, though and say anything less than a record-breaking defeat would probably not be enough for me vis-a-vis my feeling about America(ns) (or for him, let’s be honest). Not that it should matter to anyone but me, though.

II. Here’s the other thing, though. In many respects, Bush Jr. was the “fool me once, shame on you” vote. Trump was the “fool me twice, shame on me.” Watching the Bush/Gore campaign play out and end the way it did, watch the GOP stealing the election… That was foundational for me. My biggest anger towards Obama is that he basically let bygones-be-bygones when it came to that and the Iraq War and we’re still paying the price for that.

III. Speaking of Obama, when he won in 2012, we were told by the GOP itself they would have to reform – that they couldn’t stoke racial resentments and expect to win in an increasingly diverse nation. 2016 told us that wasn’t true. Trump got more votes than Romney. 2 million more people saw Trump and said, “yes.” I know the following statement sounds stupid, but that would be like if every man, woman and child in Italy voted for Trump. That’s 25 million more people than there are Canadians (*where I’m from/live). In the American scheme of things, that’s less than 25% of the population, I get that. But fuck me, that’s a lot of people.

IV. I get why Democrats rallied behind Biden as quickly as they eventually did. I get the appeal of the stalwart, default Democrat. But the default Democrat is not what these times demand. Heck, Tee, you have mentioned on more than one occasion that Biden might be more progressive than we expect. But the Biden that keeps preaching about bipartisanship is one that won’t get anything done. The Biden that preaches that the GOP will have a “come to Jesus” moment is one that will fail. The Biden that the DNC showcased (and in their choices throughout) it one that was less interested in turning up the coalition and one that was more concerned about the white “swing voter” that you mentioned in discussion about Harris/Whitmer/Klobuchar. You speak of Buttigieg’s “Future former Republicans” as representing a shift, but isn’t trying to go after them above all else a recipe for disaster?

V. More specifically, a significant minority of the US population wants a revanchist white America. They are supported by a network of billionaires funding a right-wing media ecosystem. They are enabled by a government structure that privileges them. Among those that oppose them are people who we literally have to be afraid of saying “defund the police” for fear of alienating them (Tee, when you said that earlier in this thread, I was upset. The fact that I heard others echo your concerns was upsetting). I’m typing this part right now after the Kenosha murders where a white supremacist, with the tacit and/or explicit approval of the local police, killed two people. The shooter is 17. Trumpism isn’t going away.

VI. Your comments about Harris (which, again, thank-you) were interesting. I don’t know how I see her, to be honest. I told my dad in 2017 she was a rising figure in the party and could be a presidential candidate. But I had no idea why she flamed out so hard this campaign season. I understood her to be a more liberal senator, but I didn’t understand (and still don’t) how that jived with her acts as a prosecutor. You specifically cite her as someone who can boost progressive turnout. I’m not convinced, but then I have to remind myself that Twitter politics isn’t the full picture or even a substantial portion of the picture.

VII. This goes back to what Sabin said about Obama’s legacy. “There isn’t going to be a President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.” I don’t know if he’s right or not but fuck me that’s depressing.

VIII. I don’t think I’ve ever truly understood America(ns), though. I thought I did. But 2016 disabused me of that notion. Hence the above.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 11:52 pm
by Sabin
Skimmed through night two. It wasn't insane. There are other descriptors that it warrants but there were no Donald Trump Jr's or Kimberly Guilfoyle's. It wasn't anything good. There are things that for the right crowd won't be ineffective like the prisoner getting a pardon or the MAGA hat teen or the immigrants getting their citizenship, or Rand Paul's speech, or Eric & Tiffany Trump.... Melania Trump's speech was incredibly dull but whatever nobody cares what she has to stay...

But it wasn't insane. But it wasn't much of a show either.

Donald Trump doing a Rose Garden strategy is just so weird to see, especially under these circumstances. No Coronavirus, I think it could've been more persuasive. But there's something almost quaint about it. He pardons a convicted felon. He grants citizenship. It just feels like everyone involved is trying to use every piece of the buffalo. I don't think that's going to give his people what they want.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:46 pm
by Big Magilla
Sabin wrote:
Big Magilla wrote
One word: disgusting.
How much did you watch?
None. The news caps were enough.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:23 pm
by Sabin
Big Magilla wrote
One word: disgusting.
How much did you watch?

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 7:01 am
by Big Magilla
One word: disgusting.

Re: Campaign 2020

Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:15 am
by Sabin
I guess I was surprised by night one of the RNC because I expected everybody to be shitting and screaming on-stage. That only described... what? A third of the speakers? I expected disorganized camerawork. Dead air. Weird camera movements. Instead it was competent and not funereal in tone like the DNC. Merely an unconvincing blend of culture war and actually-veiled law & order. If this night was any kind of success (and I don't know if it was), I think it's because it's easier for the GOP to message both their radical base and their mainstream than the Democrats (one faction believes we need massive structural change while the other believes if we get rid of Trump things will go back to normal--a generalization but not by much). The GOP's job is impossible (because the President is terrible) but also in theory easier. It just means saying the Democrats will destroy the country but Trump's leadership will keep us safe. Again: bullshit, but it can work.

But I'm forced to ask... is anyone on the fence at this point? Is it possible for anyone to truly not know who they're for? Anyone who listens to Nikki Haley (who was fine) and thinks "Maybe she's right" must also sit through absolute insanity! If anyone is on the fence, it's Nikki Haley that convinces them not the Clown Show. Nobody could watch Kimberly Guilfoyle (more unhinged than anyone I've ever seen at a convention) and then Donald Trump Jr. (on cocaine) and think "Yep, I wasn't convinced before but now I am." So, I'm forced to ask how many Independents, Undecideds, or Moderate Republicans are going to blindly search past the muck of insanity for truffles of antiquated Republican bullshit and say "Yep, I'm sticking with Trump?"

It just can't be many.