danfrank wrote
My only concern with that pick would be who would replace Kamala Harris as California senator? My state’s last three senators (remarkably) have all been women, and all from the San Francisco Bay Area. Our state’s greatest rising star is a Southern Californian, Adam Schiff , but I don’t know if he would want to give up his powerful chairmanship in Congress to move to the Senate.
Kevin de León? ... Tom Steyer? ... Eric Swalwell.. John Chiang... It's California, I'm sure there are a thousand good candidates.
Either way, the last time Harris' seat was held by a Republican was in 1968 by Thomas Kuchel who wasn't renominated and the seat was picked up by Alan Cranston. Whoever the Dems put up will win.
I agree that Biden is almost required to pick an African American VP given that it was the African American community that so dramatically pulled him from the grave. I also think woman, both to pull in the all-important suburban women voters but also to counter Trump’s increasingly likely move to dump Pence (the guy he’ll gladly throw under the bus for screwing up the coronavirus outbreak) in favor of Nikki Haley. A woman running against Haley can more easily take the gloves off.
It’s hard to imagine a better VP candidate than Kamala Harris, who fits the demographic criteria and who also fits the bill as the classic attack dog VP nominee. She balances out Biden almost perfectly: older-younger, white-black, man-woman, east coast-west coast, (somewhat) progressive-moderate. Picking Harris will also contrast Biden dramatically against Trump, who would never pick someone who had gone after him the way Harris went after Biden.
My only concern with that pick would be who would replace Kamala Harris as California senator? My state’s last three senators (remarkably) have all been women, and all from the San Francisco Bay Area. Our state’s greatest rising star is a Southern Californian, Adam Schiff , but I don’t know if he would want to give up his powerful chairmanship in Congress to move to the Senate.
taki15 wrote
I think the vice-presidential choice of uncle Joe will be between Kamala Harris, Tammy Duckworth, and Cathrine Cortez-Masto.
About a week ago a reporter asked Biden if he considered Harris a good pick and he answered "I can't think of anyone better". It remains to be seen whether he said that as courtesy or if he once again ran his mouth prematurely like he did some years ago with gay marriage.
I think it's going to be Kamala Harris. I don't have a lot of doubt. If Joe Biden didn't feel like he owed his campaign rebound to the African-American voters of South Carolina, I think Kamala Harris would be the favorite. But now that he in effect does owe his campaign rebound to the African-American voters of South Carolina, I can't imagine him choosing anyone else. There's a lot to be said about Joe Biden's record and what he's done and hasn't done for the African-American community. His greatest service will be standing by the first black President. When Barack Obama needed to assuage the fears of white people, Joe Biden was there to do just that. And even though Bill Clinton gets a lot of credit for making the case for Barack Obama at the 2012 DNC, Joe Biden deserves just as much for shredding Paul Ryan on national television. In fact, if *THAT* Joe Biden was running, this race would be over before it started. Throughout Barack Obama's Presidency, Joe Biden was always right there, his number one fan as those delightful memes can attest.
And by picking Kamala Harris, Joe Biden will be positioning the next black President of the United States, which means that Joe Biden's chapter in the history books will likely be serving as a bridge for wary white people to accept people of color (and--if he selects Kamala Harris--women) in national leadership positions. Not a bad legacy.
I think the vice-presidential choice of uncle Joe will be between Kamala Harris, Tammy Duckworth, and Cathrine Cortez-Masto.
About a week ago a reporter asked Biden if he considered Harris a good pick and he answered "I can't think of anyone better". It remains to be seen whether he said that as courtesy or if he once again ran his mouth prematurely like he did some years ago with gay marriage.
I put it my post but took it out because I didn't want to go down that path, but I think that Biden or some of his supporters may still hold a grudge against Harris for the stunt she pulled at the debates when she took him to task on busing. Offering her Attorney General and saying he needs Demings to bring in the always on the cusp Florida could be a face-saving ploy that might actually work. He wants someone for V.P. that he can work with without having to fight them on an almost daily basis.
Demings is 62, a spring chicken compared to the two old white guys at the top of the ticket.
I think the idea of picking a running mate in hopes of carrying his or her state is a antiquated one; the idea is to provide whatever the presidential candidate is most lacking. Obama certainly didn't need Biden to carry Delaware. He chose him because Obama was (in the eyes of many voters) liberal, exotic-because-minority, and relatively inexperienced; Biden's old-DC-hand status shored the ticket up.
Now, of course, it's the opposite. Biden is seen as an old, centrist white guy (though those of us who remember Centrist Democrat meaning John Breaux or Bob Kerrey marvel at how the center of party gravity has moved); he needs someone younger, a minority woman the ideal, and someone who projects a more liberal-leaning image. Demings isn't as old as Biden, but she's no youngster, and she's also nowhere close enough to the liberal end of the spectrum to satisfy the Sanders/Warren voters. Abrams and Harris seem by far the most likely candidates, and I think Harris -- by virtue of having actually been elected to and serving in top state and federal positions -- gets the edge. (She also happens to be my favorite.) Biden's age raises the spectre of his not surviving a full term (certainly two terms), and Harris offers more reassurance that, should something untoward happen, it would be a qualified person ascending to the top position.
I counsel everyone that there will be mood swings all year long, especially once it becomes clear one person (presumably Biden) is the nominee. Bill Clinton called it buyer's remorse: once voters realize they're stuck with someone, they're going to start noticing flaws more than virtues. This is true even when it's a genuinely special candidate (like Bill and Barack were), and will show up even more when (as here) it's a "well, I guess it this guy" choice.
I'll say, though, that I look across the landscape today, and come to the clear conclusion that Joe Biden is going to become president. Trump is already facing the handicap of three years' approvals in the low 40s, and a revved up Democratic base that, so far in primaries, is turning out at the same levels that brought the party a 9% advantage in 2018 House races. To throw coronavirus on top of that is almost surely fatal.
There's, to start, the stumblebum performance the administration is putting on in combating the virus -- hobbled at every turn by an ignorant president who insists on a fantasy version of the situation. He's making it clear the only concern he has about he virus is how good or bad it makes him look. He's ready to contradict his experts, misrepresent numbers -- anything to pretend it's going well and he can't be blamed for it. None of this will help if the virus spreads at the level experts fear (except, of course, with his base, who would gladly go to their deaths pretending they were fine as long as it made him look good). This is clearly hurting him with any voters who are on the fence.
But the economic results are going to be worse. It's not just the stock markets; the worldwide economy is, by most observation, about to come to a screeching halt. Recessions can be supply- or demand-driven; the coronavirus seems ready to deliver both. Goods from China and Italy are already essentially eliminated --as my father asked last night, won't Apple stores essentially have to shut down at some point, if they can't get resupply from China? And areas in the US like Washington state are now suffering the same fate -- unable to ship goods past quarantine -- with who knows how many other spots to follow? That's the supply side. But the demand side could be worse, with travel and leisure industries already taking sharp hits (friends of mine were planning to visit NY from the Midwest, but their doctor recommended against inessential travel), and street traffic in major cities showing noticeable slacking off. People will of course buy essentials, but the kind of luxury and impulse buying that has been propping up the economy will take a dive if people are hesitant about going out in public. This could be a very serious recession.
Frankly, none of this is Trump's fault (though the government's limited number of options to offset things is the fault of the GOP running up the deficit and lowering interest rates at a time the economy didn't need it). But of course he's been taking undeserved credit for the continuation of Obama's boom, so this is sort of karmic justice.
Bottom line: even a regular, decent president would have trouble getting re-elected with the worldwide economy in turmoil (ask Jimmy Carter about that). Putting that on top of a presidency that's already alienated the majority of the citizenry leaves almost no path for re-election.
I think it's virtually impossible for Biden not to pick a woman for Vice President, more than likely a woman of color, but I don't think it will be either Kamala Harris or Stacy Abrams. My hunch is someone I've just heard whisperings about, but those whisperings make sense.
She is from a poor family where she was one of seven children who became the first female police chief of a city that has had mass shootings in the recent past. Her husband, also a former police chief of another city in her state, is now mayor of that city. That state is one that the Dems need to win, one in which she is pushing hard for Biden to win the state's primary next week.
California is a given which makes it easier for Biden to bypass Harris and unlike Abrams, she has been in the national spotlight as one of the House managers during Trump's impeachment trial. Call me mad, but I have a feeling it will be Florida's Val (short for Valdez, not Valarie) Demings.
Sabin wrote
Yesterday, felt good. I don't say that as someone who voted for Joe Biden or was considering it. But the party felt unified and that's fun to see even if you don't like half the people who are running. To be honest: yesterday felt like the first day of the end of the Trump Presidency. I know! Don't jinx it.
BTW, I'm over feeling good now. I'm back to panicking that Trump will destroy Biden and win reelection once if not two more times.
Mister Tee wrote:
While this was going on, especially post-Nevada, the press was full-on "Sanders can't be stopped," which certainly concentrated the minds of those who were wary of his candidacy. And, it has to be said, Sanders did himself no favors during this period. His 60 Minutes interview was a double-disaster -- first because he still had not the slightest plan for how he was going to get his Medicare for all passed (four years on, he should have had at least a vague outline to show -- but all he had was, still, "we're going to make them do it"); and then the Castro quote, which was damaging/parody-able on its own, but, worse, when he was challenged, he did nothing but double-down on it. Allow me an analogy: I'd guess Obama thought, back in '08, that the media was caricaturing some of Rev. Wright's positions, and he could have argued that the man was right about some things -- but Obama, being a sentient politician, realized it was not a hill to die on, and cut the Reverend clean. (Politics isn't always a kind business.) As someone said, Sanders was displaying what he was said of a character on The West Wing: "He wants us all to say he's right, more than he wants to win."
He also sent out a tweet that, to many of us, indicated he viewed the "democratic establishment" (apparently all of us who aren't voting for him) as just as much his opponent as the GOP. Which did nothing to endear him to people who've put their hearts and effort into building the party for much of their lives.
To make matters worse, in my opinion, Sanders is attacking Biden on Social Security. Apparently trying to minimize the impact of his Cuba comments in Florida (where polls now show Biden up by 40 points), but does anyone really think Biden wants to cut Social Security or Medicare? On top of this, Sanders released an ad splicing together Obama speeches to make it look like the former president is endorsing him. Who's gonna buy that? It looks so desperate. His only hope is that the next debate on the 15th is bad for Biden. Even then, I'm not sure he can win over the people he needs to in time to turn things around. Then his only bet will be to take it away from Biden at the convention, which would just be hypocritical after saying that the person with the most votes should win the nomination.
"Because here’s the thing about life: There’s no accounting for what fate will deal you. Some days when you need a hand. There are other days when we’re called to lend a hand." -- President Joe Biden, 01/20/2021
Sabin wrote
Yesterday, felt good. I don't say that as someone who voted for Joe Biden or was considering it. But the party felt unified and that's fun to see even if you don't like half the people who are running. To be honest: yesterday felt like the first day of the end of the Trump Presidency. I know! Don't jinx it.
BTW, I'm over feeling good now. I'm back to panicking that Trump will destroy Biden and win reelection once if not two more times.
OscarGuy wrote:
I have a nurse friend who is harping on the "just wash your hands" defense, which seems particularly ill-informed since it's spread by exposure to droplets from sneezes and such, not from touching hands.
It's not ill-informed. These droplets get on the hands and can be spread through contact. It's not an airborne virus.
That's why they tell you to never touch your face, which I probably did three times as I wrote this.
To add on to this: the droplets that contain the COVID-19 coronavirus can live on surfaces from 2 hours up to 9 days. We touch those surfaces, then touch our faces (one study showed that people tend to touch their own faces 23 times per hour), and the virus can enter our system through the mouth, nose, or eyes. Washing your hands frequently, especially after touching surfaces that many others might have touched is the very best way to prevent transmission of this virus. I work in a hospital in an area where there are active COVID-19 cases and am washing my hands and/or using hand sanitizer plus wiping down surfaces with disinfecting wipes. I'm determined not to get exposed!
To get back to Mirg's question: I don't know how it has impacted the election yet, exactly. Bloomberg, who thankfully dropped out, paid for a 2 or 3-minute tv ad in which he addressed the coronavirus, trying to sound presidential. I think the remaining candidates will be talking about it more and more as the impact of the virus grows in this country. Whether campaign events get cancelled remains to be seen. I do know that there are people who are already avoiding large gatherings, or even riding on commuter trains. Trump is already blaming the spread of the coronavirus on policies from the Obama administration (a classic move from this administration when the "this is a hoax" argument doesn't stick). It's going to be a factor in this election, and should negatively impact Trump. People may not care much about Russian interference or abuses of power but they definitely care about their health.
