Campaign 2020

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Mister Tee
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Big Magilla wrote:Have there been spontaneous celebrations of the kind we're seeing all over the country now at any other time since the end of World War II? I can't think of any.
I guess not. The Obama win was similarly elating for millions of us, but that celebration was mostly limited to Chicago's Grant Park -- possibly because it was announced at 11PM ET, and people weren't inclined to leave their houses that time of day. Saturday afternoon in a pandemic was an easier time to fill the streets.

Tangential to that: this is the first time in the post-Reagan/Bush era where Dems have won in a long-count election. The Clinton and Obama wins were both certified by the time of the 11PM news on the East Coast. 2000 -- which lasted over a month -- and 2004/2016 -- not finalized till Wednesday morning -- all went the GOP way in the end. It's nice to end up on the other end of that stick.

There were impromptu celebrations the night bin Laden was killed, but was that mostly limited to DC?

Rachel Bitecofer says of course there'd be scenes reminiscent of V-J Day -- that was the last time America defeated a fascist.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Have there been spontaneous celebrations of the kind we're seeing all over the country now at any other time since the end of World War II? I can't think of any.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Big Magilla wrote
I think Padilla or Becerra would be Newsom's choice if he has someone in mind to take the place of either one in California state government. Bass can take Feinstein's place. The way she's going, she may not last to the end of her current term.
Bass is 67. I'm not sure if Newsom is going to appoint someone in their 70s.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Big Magilla wrote:It's now 279 with Nevada added - AP and Fox are at 290 with Arizona sill in their count. Waiting for Georgia to get to 306, matching Trump's total in 2016.
Worth noting that Trump's 306 came with a -2.1% popular vote margin, while Biden will probably be +4-5%. That's how tilted the Electoral College is toward rural whites, which is, currently the GOP.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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It's now 279 with Nevada added - AP and Fox are at 290 with Arizona sill in their count. Waiting for Georgia to get to 306, matching Trump's total in 2016.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Let's not be hasty now...
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Re: Campaign 2020

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FINALLY CALLED BY AP, NY TIMES WALL STREET JOURNAL, FINANCIAL TIMES, & THE TV NETWORKS INCLUDING FOX - 273 THANKS TO PA. - BIDEN IS PRESIDENT ELECT, HARRIS VICE PRESIDENT ELECT. TRUMP NOTIFIED ON HIS GOLD COURSE.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Big Magilla wrote:Once Biden becomes the President Elect, the drama will shift to the Georgia runoffs for Senator in January where the defeat of both Loeffler and Purdue would create a 50-50 Senate which would shift control of the Senate to the Democrats.

I am hopeful that this will happen but I'm skeptical. We've seen so many situations where the Dems pour money into a race only to lose anyway. I suspect they will spend more money on this one than they did in their failed attempt to unseat Graham in South Carolina, but will it help?
The Dems, as Rachel Bitecofer keeps saying, need to funnel all their resources and energy into a get out the vote operation rather than spending millions on ads trying to persuade voters to pick one candidate over the other. Stacey Abrams has laid the groundwork for this in Georgia. Runoffs are especially hard for Democrats to win because they attract the older, more conservative, more consistent voters. Warnock and Ossoff both have appealing personalities, but Americans keep showing a predilection for voting for unappealing personalities (Graham, Ernst, Collins, etc.). This is going to be a tough one, for sure.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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There's also still the hardball possibility that Biden, wanting to display his bipartisan bona fides, elevates either a retiring Republican or an endangered Republican to his cabinet and then gets a friendly governor to appoint a Democrat in their place. This would be the option if McConnell does what he's saying he's going to do and refuse to confirm anyone for any position that he doesn't personally approve of. McConnell is the most dangerous man in our government. More so than Trump, he's damaged our democracy far more than anyone else.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Once Biden becomes the President Elect, the drama will shift to the Georgia runoffs for Senator in January where the defeat of both Loeffler and Purdue would create a 50-50 Senate which would shift control of the Senate to the Democrats.

I am hopeful that this will happen but I'm skeptical. We've seen so many situations where the Dems pour money into a race only to lose anyway. I suspect they will spend more money on this one than they did in their failed attempt to unseat Graham in South Carolina, but will it help?
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Re: Campaign 2020

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OscarGuy wrote:I think going male would send the wrong message, especially after 4 years of sexism and the potential of a defeat for Roe v. Wade or a severe weakening of it, at the Supreme Court. I think Karen Bass makes the most sense. It would preserve the status quo in the state. If anything, they should just pressure Feinstein to retire and let someone else take her place. Then Californians can decide who to fill the second spot.
I think Padilla or Becerra would be Newsom's choice if he has someone in mind to take the place of either one in California state government. Bass can take Feinstein's place. The way she's going, she may not last to the end of her current term.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Mister Tee wrote: I wasn't watching (I'd switched to a chintzy 30s mystery from TCM), but I'm told Steve Kornacki was essentially looking in the camera and pleading with his decision desk to call PA and NV -- like, he can't stand there another day pretending Trump has a chance to win them, so would his network PLEASE end this? Apparently similar conversations have taken place on CNN and ABC (the latter with Nate Silver himself doing the prompting). It's to the point where you wonder if network higher-ups are putting a thumb on the scale for some reason. There are two realities: the Internet, where everyone has known Biden was the winner since noon Wednesday, and on TV, where they pretend this election is still super-close.
I haven't watched for a couple of hours and would only check intermittently as I had other things to do, but the hesitation to call Pennsylvania is purportedly over the outstanding 1,000 provincial ballots which may be more Republican than Democratic though it still strikes me as mathematically impossible for Trump to overtake Biden there. I think, though, if the absentee ballot spread gets much higher, they will have to call it.

Brian Williams addressed the Decision Desk holdup at 10:21:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/tv/news/nbc-n ... i-BB1aMsy6
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Okri wrote: 2. Sweet lamb of divine fuck, what's taking so long
It's to the point where on-air personalities (Joe Scarborough, Steve Schmidt) have loudly accused their networks of being intimidated by Trump into delaying the call until it's literally mathematically impossible for him to magically win. This has never been the standard before -- they know full well Trump isn't going to do anything but get crushed in Clark County, and that would have in the past have led to a quick call of Nevada. Universal feeling is 1) if the situation was reversed, the race would have been called yesterday, latest and 2) every moment it stays uncalled eggs on the "it's being stolen crowd" on the right. The American media has failed us at every step along the Trump path, and they're going out in the same fashion.

ADDENDUM: I wasn't watching (I'd switched to a chintzy 30s mystery from TCM), but I'm told Steve Kornacki was essentially looking in the camera and pleading with his decision desk to call PA and NV -- like, he can't stand there another day pretending Trump has a chance to win them, so would his network PLEASE end this? Apparently similar conversations have taken place on CNN and ABC (the latter with Nate Silver himself doing the prompting). It's to the point where you wonder if network higher-ups are putting a thumb on the scale for some reason. There are two realities: the Internet, where everyone has known Biden was the winner since noon Wednesday, and on TV, where they pretend this election is still super-close.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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OscarGuy wrote
I think going male would send the wrong message, especially after 4 years of sexism and the potential of a defeat for Roe v. Wade or a severe weakening of it, at the Supreme Court. I think Karen Bass makes the most sense. It would preserve the status quo in the state. If anything, they should just pressure Feinstein to retire and let someone else take her place. Then Californians can decide who to fill the second spot.
I agree. I think Bass makes the most sense. But apparently if Gavin Newsom appoints Padilla, then he gets to appoint a new California Secretary of State as well. Not a bad tradeoff.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by OscarGuy »

I think going male would send the wrong message, especially after 4 years of sexism and the potential of a defeat for Roe v. Wade or a severe weakening of it, at the Supreme Court. I think Karen Bass makes the most sense. It would preserve the status quo in the state. If anything, they should just pressure Feinstein to retire and let someone else take her place. Then Californians can decide who to fill the second spot.
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