Campaign 2020

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Big Magilla
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

These old farts are something else.

I suspect that when polled, they were embarrassed to say they were voting for Trump because deep down they know that that is a shameful thing to do, let alone admit to.

I think they all know what a liar he is, that he hasn't and won't be doing anything for them, but they like that he gives the middle finger to anyone and everyone and gets away with it.

Most, but not all, are racists, though they would deny it. How else would you explain memes like the one I saw from a neighbor the day after the election was called of a grinning Obama and a grinning Harris propping up a sleeping Biden with the caption "God help America" posted on Facebook?
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

I've been fascinated by the insane amount of voters that Trump brought in and what might account for it and I stumbled upon an interesting discrepancy.

From the summer until at least a month before election day, voters over 65 were shown to have a clear preference for Biden. I saw one poll showing Biden with a 57-42 point lead in the summer. At least a month before the election, we were looking at up to a twenty point lead.

https://www.axios.com/biden-trump-senio ... 17961.html

Very impressive! Game over, right? I mean, that was my favorite advantage that Biden had. He seemed pretty unbeatable with senior voters. But come election day...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ident.html

Oops. 52-47 favoring Trump. If it went 1 point lower in states like Arizona with a LOT of senior voters, Trump could've gotten reelected.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by OscarGuy »

There has been some minor chatter about Kavangh not being as reliable a conservative vote as some think on things that are socially liberal. There's thinking that because he's younger, he's not as opposed to gay rights as someone like Barrett who's opposed because she's a religious zealot. It's possible that he and Roberts will probably side with the liberal wing on regular social issues, though the abortion issue may not be so cut and dried.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Greg »

I have read a little that indicates packing the Supreme Court may not be necessary, after all, in that the Court may actually be headed to upholding the Affordable Care Act. It appears that Kavanaugh might join Roberts as two swing votes, with Breyer, Kagan, and Sotomayor as the liberals; and, Alito, Barrett, Gorsuch, and Thomas the conservatives. We'll see.
Okri
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Okri »

Honestly, I am more on Sonic's side here. I wanna wait for the final vote tallies before making any further comments but even acknowledging the pace and structure of counting helped Biden, I am not optimistic.

But I'm not American either, so grain of salt.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by flipp525 »

Sonic Youth wrote:Nice country while it lasted.
Really? That is a just a tad defeatist at this point. The country is not over. Maybe if Trump had been re-elected. Today, it just sounds like Eeyore-ing.

I’m in D.C. as you all know, and have my ear to the ground on a lot of this. I’m not going to get into any specifics (this board is way too public), but do not worry. Steel yourself but do not despair.

You’re right, Sonic, that they're afraid that if they endorse President Elect Biden they will demoralize the base and lose the Senate. That's why Loeffler and Perdue came out against a fellow Republican yesterday. But it’s not the end of the Republic. Calm down.
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Sonic Youth
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sonic Youth »

It's got nothing to do with Trump. It's all because of the runoff elections. They want Republicans to come out in droves, with lit torches and everything. After Jan. 4th, McConnell will shut up, but by then the entire nation will have harikari'd itself. Ever hear about the psychotically abusive spouse who loved his wife so much he killed her?

Nice country while it lasted.
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Big Magilla
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

None of the Congressional Republicans believe the conspiracy theories Trump is spewing but they are still afraid of the Trump base so with few exceptions they continue to play along. One wonders how many more lawsuits will be thrown out before they say "enough is enough", but the circle is getting tighter. Fox News cut off Trump's Press Secretary mid-sentence in the 5 pm hour as she was ranting about unproven stolen votes.

Georgia will be tough, but not impossible.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

https://twitter.com/costareports/status ... 3268298758

And now we play America's favorite game: MITCH MCCONNELL WOULD NEVER... (he would)

I've decided until Joe Biden's ass is sitting behind that desk with his wonderful rescue dog, we haven't won.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Greg wrote
Senate majority will not be known until we have the results of the two Georgia Senate runoffs in January.
I guess. I'm trying to stay hopeful but the GOP has won every runoff in Georgia since 1992. I know this is a new world that we're in right now and Stacey Abrams is confident -- as she should be. She's done an awesome job. But now we won't have third party candidates sucking up the votes. Like the Libertarian candidate picked up 2.3% in Ossof's race, or Doug Collins and his 20% in Ralph Warnock's race. Heck, Biden wouldn't even have Georgia in his tally if Jo Jorgenson didn't take 1.2% / ~62,000 votes from Trump, to which I can only say "How does it feel?" But she won't be in the runoff.

In related news, I have to believe The Green Party will end up with their worst showing ever.

I would say the same about North Carolina (98% reporting) except tbh, Tom Tillis should've won by a much larger margin had the Libertarian candidate not picked up 3.1% of the vote and the Constitution candidate grabbed 1.2%. Maybe it was Cunningham's goddamn sexting scandal that did it or the polling was just off but either way, we don't just need one miracle to take the Senate, we need two.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Greg »

Sabin wrote:To say nothing about how the GOP picked up seats in the House of Representatives and maintained their majority in the Senate.
Senate majority will not be known until we have the results of the two Georgia Senate runoffs in January.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

danfrank wrote
Earlier when I was speculating about Kamala’s replacement in the Senate I mentioned the SF Bay Area’s dominance in California politics. Make that in national politics. I just realized that sitting behind Biden at the State of the Union speech will be (for the first time) two women, both from the Bay Area. Sweet.
Oh, it's happening and it's a very big deal. The Bay Area has become the central of California politics, and California politics is about to take center-stage in the country in a big way. We have the first California Democrat on the ticket (Kamala Harris) and certainly Gavin Newsom isn't going anywhere for some time. It strikes me that California is becoming like New York was for part of our country's history, a much-despised place that you could vote against.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by danfrank »

Earlier when I was speculating about Kamala’s replacement in the Senate I mentioned the SF Bay Area’s dominance in California politics. Make that in national politics. I just realized that sitting behind Biden at the State of the Union speech will be (for the first time) two women, both from the Bay Area. Sweet.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by danfrank »

I like this graphic:

https://twitter.com/jessecharleslee/sta ... 54882?s=21

There are still millions of votes to be counted in places like New York and California. In the end Trump will lose by at least 5%. Not a landslide but not a squeaker, either.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
I think you mean reelection, not renomination, bid, but the real disaster is what he did to the country and is still doing. If there is anything good about him to be said in the history books, it will be just a footnote.
Yes, correct.

And sure, nobody is arguing the damage he did to our country which makes his relatively strong showing so astonishing.
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