Campaign 2020

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Sonic Youth
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sonic Youth »

Biden is absolutely going to win. I'm not worried about Trump stealing the election or even attempting to steal it. Trump may be delusional enough to think that he's winning, and that any poll and any outcome that says otherwise is false and a conspiracy. But most of the people around him know it's over, and they won't have much fight in them to alter the results. It's the senate that worries me. Democrats need a majority, and they can get it, but probably not by more than one or two. THOSE races are prime targets for theft and deceit. There's no point in waging an impossible nation-wide battle to save the presidency, but suppressing the vote in 3 or 4 districts is far more doable. We need international election monitors to come to Iowa immediately!
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

I am entirely confident that Joe Biden will win the popular vote and the electoral college. I am less confident that he will take office due to the other side outright stealing it on a state level, through voter suppression, or at the Supreme Court. That said, I'm just not sure that Trump can steal as much as he needs to to win.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by mlrg »

Are you guys pretty confident that Biden will win?
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

OscarGuy wrote
Not electorally, but possibly by popular vote margin.
I could see that.

I was going to say "It's hard to imagine someone winning the Presidency while losing the popular vote by 9%" but John Q. Adams did it during an electoral college deadlock by 10-11%
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by OscarGuy »

Not electorally, but possibly by popular vote margin.
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Sabin
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

OscarGuy wrote
I have a feeling that his historic loss (biggest reelection defeat since the Great Depression) will finally wake up Republican leaders to the fact that Trump is toxic to the point of being a poison pill for any race.
You think he'll do worse than Carter in 1980?
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by OscarGuy »

After the Shellacking Republicans will take this year, not only losing the Senate majority, but possibly having serious pickups in the House as well and possibly even losing a few state legislatures and governorships, the autopsy will almost certainly be that hugging Trump wasn't good for their long term survivability. I have a feeling that his historic loss (biggest reelection defeat since the Great Depression) will finally wake up Republican leaders to the fact that Trump is toxic to the point of being a poison pill for any race.

In 2016, it was because no one really thought Trump would be that careless, cruel, or any number of other words. In 2020, not only do they know exactly who he is, they will have no illusions that he's good for the party's long term survival. Think the Ben Sasse rebuke of Trump is the embodiment of the pivot they are taking. They are seriously afraid that this is what happened to the Whigs two centuries ago and they are deathly afraid of that. Because if there's one thing Republicans love more than even their quiet cruelty, it's the power that comes with being in charge and if they continue to hemorrhage support in every demographic but the decreasing white male demo, they will struggle to be anything BUT the minority party for decades to come and that is not good in their minds.

It's like the toxicity that is Kris Kobach. Kobach managed to turn a guaranteed Republican governorship into the first Democrat governorship in decades. He almost lost them the Senate seat, too, but he was defeated in the primary and that was their only saving grace in that state.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Sabin wrote:
Big Magilla wrote
Trump will likely be in jail, a care facility, or hiding in a foreign country that doesn't have an extradition deal with the U.S. if he's still alive in 2024. If somehow manages to run again, it will likely be as an independent setting up a rematch of 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt did that, splitting the Republican vote between himself and Taft paving the way for Woodrow Wilson.
Why would anybody think he wouldn't be capable of winning the Republican primary?
Because it won't be 2016 or 2020 anymore.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
Trump will likely be in jail, a care facility, or hiding in a foreign country that doesn't have an extradition deal with the U.S. if he's still alive in 2024. If somehow manages to run again, it will likely be as an independent setting up a rematch of 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt did that, splitting the Republican vote between himself and Taft paving the way for Woodrow Wilson.
Why would anybody think he wouldn't be capable of winning the Republican primary?
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Trump will likely be in jail, a care facility, or hiding in a foreign country that doesn't have an extradition deal with the U.S. if he's still alive in 2024. If somehow manages to run again, it will likely be as an independent setting up a rematch of 1912 when Teddy Roosevelt did that, splitting the Republican vote between himself and Taft paving the way for Woodrow Wilson.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Steve Bannon says Trump will run again in 2024 if he loses to Biden. I'm waiting for someone other than Giant Racist Liar Guy to confirm but... why wouldn't he? Trump can't get over somebody telling him he has small hands. Why would he get over being the most powerful man in the world? Especially when his odds are him vs. likely a woman of color?

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-w ... 1603040869

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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Okri »

Mister Tee wrote:
You say that like it's such a rarity.
Heh.

Honestly, though, I just want him to be what you think he can be.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Mister Tee »

You say that like it's such a rarity.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by OscarGuy »

This is what some of us have been saying for a long time. You don't pick Kamala Harris for your VP without having some interest in a liberal dynasty. Try to convince Sanders voters of that, though.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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