Campaign 2020

Sabin
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
Oy. Am I going to have to talk you guys down all year long?
YES. He's a fascist with no respect for power who knows he's going to lose.

Side question: what do we think is going to happen with the Senators who are suspected of insider trading? Do they all resign?
"How's the despair?"
Big Magilla
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Mister Tee wrote:Oy. Am I going to have to talk you guys down all year long?

Ask yourself: how any times in the past year have you heard some pundit say "But his approval is going up!" based on a single poll -- and how often has that turned out to be a mirage? Because Trump's numbers have been so universally awful by historic standards, the press is going to highlight anything that looks decent, on a "man bites dog" basis.

There's plenty else to feel insane over just now. Don't get hooked in by this one.
That was my initial reaction, but then I googled "Trump pandemic polls" and found they're all in the same range.

On the other hand, all the presidential polls have him losing by seven points to Biden. I saw one yesterday in which he was losing 7 to both Biden and Sanders.

What disturbs me is not the braindead positive reaction to his or his administration's "handling" of the crisis but that they still believe all the misinformation that comes of his mouth even when it's contradicted by others at the same "briefings".

On the bright side, even though I take everything that comes out of China with a grain, make that a spoonful, of salt, now that they are letting some western journalists back into the country, there seems to be some validity to the claim that there are no new outbreaks in the country from those who have been quarantined, the only new cases are those are being brought in by people coming into and/or returning to the country from abroad. If all the countries with strict quarantines experience the same thing in the next month or two, then maybe we can get past this thing in a reasonable period of time and start holding the administration accountable for their lack of leadership leading up to this.

We need the Democrats to keep the House and win back the Senate and the Presidency. If the election were held tomorrow, I think we would do just that, but we've got months of twists and turns ahead before we get there.
Okri
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Okri »

Mister Tee wrote:Oy. Am I going to have to talk you guys down all year long?
Not to speak for everyone, but for me... yes, you probably will.
Mister Tee
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Mister Tee »

Oy. Am I going to have to talk you guys down all year long?

Ask yourself: how any times in the past year have you heard some pundit say "But his approval is going up!" based on a single poll -- and how often has that turned out to be a mirage? Because Trump's numbers have been so universally awful by historic standards, the press is going to highlight anything that looks decent, on a "man bites dog" basis.

And there are many reasons to be skeptical of this poll:

1) It doesn't specify Trump; it asks about administration handling of the crisis -- some could mean it as endorsement of Tony Fauci.

2) It's a very small sample size.

3) In moments of national crisis, polling has long showed rally-round-the-flag effects. Bush, as we all remember, hit 90% after September 11th. Less remembered is Jimmy Carter getting high 60s/low70s approval in the early months of the hostage crisis. In that context, 55% is pretty weak sauce -- if that's the best the administration can manage at the peak moment of "we're all in this together", woe to the future.

Because remember what happened to Jimmy Carter: when things weren't quickly resolved, those numbers declined sharply. The Iran crisis, too, led to recession -- a recession that was a small scratch compared to the deep, vital-organ-threatening wound of the one we're just entering -- and it was enough to render Carter unelectable by November.

There's plenty else to feel insane over just now. Don't get hooked in by this one.
Last edited by Mister Tee on Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Big Magilla
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

danfrank wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:
Sabin wrote:Trump's crisis approval rating is 55%.
People are idiots.
Is this evidence that we are truly a majority-idiot country, or are people just too afraid to acknowledge that this pandemic isn’t being managed well? Denial is powerful.
Probably both.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by danfrank »

Big Magilla wrote:
Sabin wrote:Trump's crisis approval rating is 55%.
People are idiots.
Is this evidence that we are truly a majority-idiot country, or are people just too afraid to acknowledge that this pandemic isn’t being managed well? Denial is powerful.
Big Magilla
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Sabin wrote:Trump's crisis approval rating is 55%.
People are idiots.
Sabin
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Trump's crisis approval rating is 55%.
"How's the despair?"
Sabin
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Mitt Romney takes another steps towards Barry Goldwater-status elder statesman, beloved by the opposition party more than his own, by advocating for limited UBI.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/487 ... oronavirus

Additionally, a new Gallup poll saw Romney's favorability with Republicans dropped to 23% (22 points down) last October. Among Democrats, it jumped to 56% (19 points up).
"How's the despair?"
Mister Tee
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Mister Tee »

Sabin wrote:I'll never jump the gun again.

A latest NBC News/WSJ poll said that 51% of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling the outbreak while 45% approve. 4% unsure.

Trump's approval rating as of March? 51% disapprove of Trump's job performance. 46% approve.

Obviously, we're at the start of this thing but to paraphrase What about Bob?: he's not done. He's never done! See?!?
1) NBC has always had Trump in the mid-40s approval; they're his best poll short of Rasmussen.

2) Even that poll has Biden beating him 52-43 today.

3) The recession hasn't yet penetrated. Bush lost 10 points off his already-pitiful numbers when the meltdown came along.
Sabin
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

I'll never jump the gun again.

A latest NBC News/WSJ poll said that 51% of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling the outbreak while 45% approve. 4% unsure.

Trump's approval rating as of March? 51% disapprove of Trump's job performance. 46% approve.

Obviously, we're at the start of this thing but to paraphrase What about Bob?: he's not done. He's never done! See?!?
"How's the despair?"
Okri
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Okri »

And it makes me wonder - like with Magilla's comment below
Big Magilla wrote:What voters see is that Biden will bring decency and honor back to the White House, restore America's standing in the world and bring hope to the masses.
Voting Trump out won't restore America's standing. If it did, the world would have failed. 63 million Americans voted for this amoral cesspool. Honestly, that's unforgivable. I know that nihilism isn't the right choice and certainly an irresponsible one for anybody to take, but man, if the world pretends that voting Biden gives us that "beacon on the hill," I will be disappointed.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Nothing shocks me anymore regarding the stupidity of Trump supporters, but it is disturbing that even now when their own lives are at risk, they support his handling of the pandemic.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... demic-poll
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Mister Tee »

Okri wrote:Trump tried to bribe German scientists who are working on the vaccine to sell it to the United States for exclusive use.
And his most loyal followers will consider this a stroke of genius. "We get good stuff/someone else doesn't" is their overriding philosophy.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Okri »

Trump tried to bribe German scientists who are working on the vaccine to sell it to the United States for exclusive use.
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