Campaign 2020

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OscarGuy
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by OscarGuy »

Trump has always been a germophobe, so this is not surprising.
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Big Magilla
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Sabin, those are good points about Stacy Abrams, the most salient being that Fox News, Rush Limbaugh and the rest of the smarmy Republican talking heads will make a big deal of them. It may not mean much in the long run, but we don't need another long, drawn sideshow. The Repubs in the Senate are already engaged in one by continuing to go after Biden and Barisma the way the then Republican House went after Hillary and Bengazi.

As long as we're quoting journalists, though, here's one from Vanity Fair's Gabe Sherman that I wish would get more play:

“Stories about Trump’s coronavirus fears have spread through the White House. Last week Trump told aides he’s afraid journalists will try to purposefully contract coronavirus to give it to him on Air Force One, a person close to the administration told me. The source also said Trump has asked the Secret Service to set up a screening program and bar anyone who has a cough from the White House grounds. ‘He’s definitely melting down over this,’ the source said.”
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Mateo wrote
I'm curious, why concern?

Strategically, given the turnout Abrams generated during her race for Governor, I'd think she'd be of better assistance in winning the arguable Southern swing states of hard-to-get North Carolina and maybe even Georgia itself. If she was on the ballot with Biden, it could also help the two Senate races in Georgia as her coalition would surely turn out again and potentially propel a Democrat (or two, if by some miracle) into one of those seats. I recognize Kamala Harris (the other name I hear thrown around most) is more accomplished politically and has her fan base but could she generate the same type of excitement as Stacey? That might seem like a no-brainer but Stacey is younger (could help with Joe's lower favorability with Gen Z), has less baggage (i.e. Kamala's Attorney General background), and has gained both airtime and respect for her recent work on voting rights.

I love Stacey and have followed her closely since 2018, so I'm wondering what you see that I'm missing.
Every reason why you cite is why she's likely to be Joe Biden's choice.

There's a lot to be said about the choice of a running mate and what it means and doesn't mean. But what's undeniable is this: a running mate is the first choice you make as a President. That's what the American people see.

My concern about Stacey Abrams is that she's inexperienced. She's inexperienced. If she had won her Governor's race and was serving out her second year, I'd think she was inexperienced. Donald Trump was inexperienced. Pete Buttigieg was inexperienced. Stacey Abrams is inexperienced. Joe Biden's choice of running mate could easily dictate who the next President of the United States will be and Abrams would be historically inexperienced. When George Bush picked Dan Quayle, the other side jumped on him and correctly pointed out that he wasn't ready to be President. I have no idea if Stacey Abrams is ready to be President. But what I know is this, when Joe Biden picks Stacey Abrams, that becomes the story: is she ready to be President?

She may be a remarkable person but politically there's a lot about her that I could see weaponized. She's unmarried. She's in debt. She defended Michael Bloomberg after he donated millions to her charity. She's 46. She's never held office beyond the Georgia House of Representatives. Beyond that, she never conceded her election. Despite the fact that there are many reasons to doubt that her election was fairly conducted, I have a problem with how many candidates we are seeing coming out of the woodworks who themselves or their constituents vocally deny the fairness of their elections. Trump complains about things being rigged. The Sanders camp complains about things being rigged. If Joe Biden picks Abrams, that's pretty much every political camp today saying that something's been rigged.

To me, what works about Joe Biden as a Presidential candidate is even though he brings a very mixed record to the table, he's as close to a Generic Democrat as you can find. Despite what any Bernie supporter will have you believe, he doesn't bring a lot to the table that the general electorate finds offensive. The minute he chooses Stacey Abrams, that's gone. The election largely becomes Stacey Abrams vs. Donald Trump because it's not like Joe Biden is really going to be "there" for it.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Mateo »

Sabin wrote: This tells me Stacey Abrams probably has a better chance of being Joe Biden's running mate than we think. And to be honest, that really concerns me.
I'm curious, why concern?

Strategically, given the turnout Abrams generated during her race for Governor, I'd think she'd be of better assistance in winning the arguable Southern swing states of hard-to-get North Carolina and maybe even Georgia itself. If she was on the ballot with Biden, it could also help the two Senate races in Georgia as her coalition would surely turn out again and potentially propel a Democrat (or two, if by some miracle) into one of those seats. I recognize Kamala Harris (the other name I hear thrown around most) is more accomplished politically and has her fan base but could she generate the same type of excitement as Stacey? That might seem like a no-brainer but Stacey is younger (could help with Joe's lower favorability with Gen Z), has less baggage (i.e. Kamala's Attorney General background), and has gained both airtime and respect for her recent work on voting rights.

I love Stacey and have followed her closely since 2018, so I'm wondering what you see that I'm missing.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Okri »

Sabin wrote:
Big Magilla wrote
Let's not hysterical over every soundbite.
Ah... I remember those days.
Right?
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
Let's not hysterical over every soundbite.
Ah... I remember those days.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Let's not hysterical over every soundbite.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
I love that with the Democratic race all but decided, we can now speculate on who the VP pick will be. I really don't care who it is, as long as it is someone 62 or younger who will be a competent leader if anything should happen to Biden in the next eight years. I just don't want anyone who is or will be 70 in that period.
Axios just put out an article worth reading, but it cited that:

"One adviser told us when we asked who the V.P. pick would be: "Whoever Jim Clyburn wants it to be.""

This tells me Stacey Abrams probably has a better chance of being Joe Biden's running mate than we think. And to be honest, that really concerns me.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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I love that with the Democratic race all but decided, we can now speculate on who the VP pick will be. I really don't care who it is, as long as it is someone 62 or younger who will be a competent leader if anything should happen to Biden in the next eight years. I just don't want anyone who is or will be 70 in that period.

I'm glad that Biden recognizes that he has to "broaden the bench" as it's known in business, give important roles to the young contenders - Klobuchar, Harris, Buttigieg, O'Rourke and others. No more old fogies in key roles with nowhere to go but into retirement.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

criddic3 wrote
I do not think Trump will dump Pence, for the simple reason that the president knows it will make him look weak to change the ticket mid-stream.
I think Trump can get away with it by making a spectacle out of the night. He’s an unconventional politician. Choosing a new VP would generate excitement and his base will follow him anywhere anyway. I know there’s a great deal of gossip around Nikki Haley, and that’s possible especially bc Mike Pence isn’t going to get lucky and have Tim Kaine to boss around this time.

That said, i don’t know if he’ll do that bc he needs that base of evangelicals or he’s screwed. They like Pence.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

taki15 wrote
Xavier Beccera would be a great choice but I don't know if he prefers to be governor.
Well, he’ll have to wait a long time bc Newsom isn’t going anywhere. But that’s a great choice. See? We’re fine. And SoCal has a jungle primary so it will be a Democrat almost certainly.
OscarGuy wrote
Harris didn't lose support for attacking Biden. She even received a sizable bounce after that moment. The problem was that with so many candidates, coalescing around one is difficult and Harris' two big flaws were 1) her future debate performances weren't up to snuff, and 2) she had her sister running her campaign and from all accounts her sister wasn't very good at the job, including being rather abraisive.
All this...

And she was woefully unprepared for Tulsi Gabbard’s attacks on her record, which say what you will about Tulsi Gabbard but those attacks were coming. Harris had NO RESPONSE. That’s kind of remarkable.
Big Magilla wrote
Klobuchar is the only one of the former candidates actively campaigning for Biden. She is currently barnstorming Michigan. If Michigan comes in big for Biden over Sanders who won it four years ago, it could go a long way toward bolstering her VP chances.
Biden is currently surging in Michigan. I’m inclined to say it will be closer than projected (like in 2016) but Biden will win.

Bc the Dems lost the Midwest, Klobuchar has to be on the short list.

Maybe she was offered Sec State?
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Klobuchar is the only one of the former candidates actively campaigning for Biden. She is currently barnstorming Michigan. If Michigan comes in big for Biden over Sanders who won it four years ago, it could go a long way toward bolstering her VP chances.
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Re: Campaign 2020

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Harris didn't lose support for attacking Biden. She even received a sizable bounce after that moment. The problem was that with so many candidates, coalescing around one is difficult and Harris' two big flaws were 1) her future debate performances weren't up to snuff, and 2) she had her sister running her campaign and from all accounts her sister wasn't very good at the job, including being rather abraisive.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by taki15 »

Sabin wrote:
danfrank wrote
My only concern with that pick would be who would replace Kamala Harris as California senator? My state’s last three senators (remarkably) have all been women, and all from the San Francisco Bay Area. Our state’s greatest rising star is a Southern Californian, Adam Schiff , but I don’t know if he would want to give up his powerful chairmanship in Congress to move to the Senate.
Kevin de León? ... Tom Steyer? ... Eric Swalwell.. John Chiang... It's California, I'm sure there are a thousand good candidates.

Either way, the last time Harris' seat was held by a Republican was in 1968 by Thomas Kuchel who wasn't renominated and the seat was picked up by Alan Cranston. Whoever the Dems put up will win.
Xavier Beccera would be a great choice but I don't know if he prefers to be governor.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by criddic3 »

Yeah, I agree that it's an uphill battle for Bernie Sanders. His supporters are all over the place trying to sow doubts about Joe Biden's effectiveness and that he wouldn't be able to defeat Donald Trump. Yet they fail to see the flaws in their own candidate and how easy it would be for Trump to attack him on his self-description as a "Democratic Socialist." The fact that he has not drawn higher turnout among his core groups of young voters and Latino voters shows that he cannot guarantee that turnout in November to offset those worried about a "Socialist" candidate.

As for VP, I am kind of swayed by the arguments for Harris. Her attack on Biden was a dumb move, even though some saw it as savvy at first, and it is the single biggest reason she lost support. The way she did it did not endear her to people. That approach may work better against Trump and Pence. I do not think Trump will dump Pence, for the simple reason that the president knows it will make him look weak to change the ticket mid-stream. Now maybe I'm wrong and he doesn't even have that amount of self-awareness, but somehow I doubt he'll actually do it. However, if Biden wasn't so beholden to pick a woman of color, I would have been happy to see him choose Pete Buttigieg. But I liked Harris when the race began, thought she was smart and steady, good debater. Could work.
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