Campaign 2020

Sabin
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

OscarGuy wrote
Let's hope they don't let her sister anywhere near the electoral operations.
Like Kamala Harris isn't going to let her sister run her Presidential campaign? Well, she's got four years to learn how to do it better. That's probably enough.

I posted this on Twitter but when was the last time one person had so much influencer over his party for such a period of time? When a President leaves office, they're usually spent, toxic, or elderly. Obama was none of these things. He served two terms left with high approval ratings, then his Secretary of State won the popular vote but controversially missed out on the presidency (I understand that she is from a different era but she certainly campaigned on a third Obama term rather than a return to the Clinton 90's). Then we had a slight but loud identity crisis within the party, which has now been thoroughly settled. All snarky comments will be ignored -- The future of the Democratic Party does not belong to Bernie Sanders. There isn't going to be a President Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This is Barack Obama's Party, and his Vice President is set to win this fall, and after that his Vice President's Vice President (and Harris is clearly an Obama Democrat) is set to run in 2024 -- and I don't think it's too early to speculate on that as Joe Biden has campaigned on being both a Return to Normalcy AND a transitional figure to the future of the party. And Biden has already said that he views Democrats like Pete Buttigieg to be the future of the party. It's not impossible to see a Harris/Buttigieg ticket in the future. (THAT'S too much speculation).

My point is when we evaluate Barack Obama's legacy, it's no longer going to be confined to his two terms. To paraphrase Joe Biden, he is a big fucking deal.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by OscarGuy »

Let's hope they don't let her sister anywhere near the electoral operations.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Okri »

Mister Tee wrote:She seemed so obvious a choice that I had the paranoid fear they'd pass her by just because.

I'm elated.
Genuine question: why?
Sabin
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

I wrote as much on Twitter. In case anybody is wondering if Kamala Harris is a good running mate or not, here are the picks from the last thirty years: Tim Kaine, Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, Joe Biden, Sarah Palin, John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Dick Cheney, Jack Kemp, Al Gore, Dan Quayle

Yeah, she's good.

I get that running mate selections don't necessarily sway the outcome of the election. However, a running mate selection is the first choice the possible President makes. And they seem to serve three functions: to generate excitement, to reassure... or they just don't do much of anything. Pence, Biden, and Cheney successfully reassured voters (even if their reassurance was all for naught). When I look at when these candidates go for excitement, it usually tends to be towards galvanizing the right. Both John McCain, Mitt Romney, George H.W. Bush picked people younger and more conservative to prove something to their base but it proved to be a double-edged sword. On the left, the closest thing we've see is Al Gore, of which I am *TOLD* the selection Al Gore was electrifying. I'll have to take their word.

But choosing Kamala Harris does feel exciting. Social media is in full bliss-out. Haters are being silenced left and right. K-Hive is losing their minds. For the first time in ages, it feels as though people on the left are embracing the future.

Not a bad day.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Sabin wrote:
Sonic Youth wrote
Everyone I know is convinced she's going to eat Pence alive at the VP debate, but I don't see that as a given, imo. She had that one breakthrough night - when she took Biden on, ironically enough - but I wasn't impressed otherwise. She got flustered and thrown off her game way too easily, as I recall.

I wonder if people are confusing her debate performances with clips from committee hearings. She's great at grilling other people. But she won't be asking the questions at the debates. She's only been a running mate for a couple of hours, and I'm afraid people are already over-hyping the upcoming VP debate.
I think people are confusing the Kamala Harris they've seen with the one they want to believe she is. The idea of Kamala Harris "prosecuting" Trump was extremely appealing. It's so appealing people are willing to give her a chance to become that person. I'm excited about Kamala Harris not because she's a prosecutorial figure but because she might be better as an aspirational one. I agree with you. I think she stands a chance to lose her debate with Pence (he's very sharp), but I'm not sure it matters. Hopefully she's have a good platform of Biden Administration accomplishments to run on in 2024.
Pence is not sharp, but he is smooth. However, Harris can be just as smooth, and she's a lot smarter. She won't be flustered like Kaine was in 2016 and start raising her voice to make a point while he sits there calmly like the gentleman so many were fooled into believing he was then. Debating, or to be more precise, answering questions, with just one other contender is different than competing with the ungodly number of candidates there were in the Democratic debates. Besides, she will have the best in the business prepping her. She won't falter.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by taki15 »

Harris is the first black and Asian-American woman on a major party ticket.
She is also the first person west of Texas to ever be on a Democratic party ticket.
Not bad.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Sonic Youth wrote
Everyone I know is convinced she's going to eat Pence alive at the VP debate, but I don't see that as a given, imo. She had that one breakthrough night - when she took Biden on, ironically enough - but I wasn't impressed otherwise. She got flustered and thrown off her game way too easily, as I recall.

I wonder if people are confusing her debate performances with clips from committee hearings. She's great at grilling other people. But she won't be asking the questions at the debates. She's only been a running mate for a couple of hours, and I'm afraid people are already over-hyping the upcoming VP debate.
I think people are confusing the Kamala Harris they've seen with the one they want to believe she is. The idea of Kamala Harris "prosecuting" Trump was extremely appealing. It's so appealing people are willing to give her a chance to become that person. I'm excited about Kamala Harris not because she's a prosecutorial figure but because she might be better as an aspirational one. I agree with you. I think she stands a chance to lose her debate with Pence (he's very sharp), but I'm not sure it matters. Hopefully she's have a good platform of Biden Administration accomplishments to run on in 2024.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sonic Youth »

Everyone I know is convinced she's going to eat Pence alive at the VP debate, but I don't see that as a given, imo. She had that one breakthrough night - when she took Biden on, ironically enough - but I wasn't impressed otherwise. She got flustered and thrown off her game way too easily, as I recall.

I wonder if people are confusing her debate performances with clips from committee hearings. She's great at grilling other people. But she won't be asking the questions at the debates. She's only been a running mate for a couple of hours, and I'm afraid people are already over-hyping the upcoming VP debate.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Mister Tee »

She seemed so obvious a choice that I had the paranoid fear they'd pass her by just because.

I'm elated.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

I don't get to say this often, but...

I TOLD YOU SO!

Congratulations, KAMALA HARRIS.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sonic Youth »

Big Magilla wrote: I don't think Rice will would do harm to the ticket but the knives are already out to get her. If she is the pick, expect to hear "Bengazi!" as much as we will continue to hear "the Bidens and Ukraine" and other nasty Republican epithets.
That aside, it also wouldn't go over well with the Bernie-left. Of all the things the far-left may admire about the Obama administration, foreign policy is not among them, and Susan Rice was instrumental in those decisions. If a Biden presidency means a continuation of those policies, that will only decrease the overall enthusiasm level.

ETA: Never mind...
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by danfrank »

It’s Kamala, apparently
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

I suspect it's going to be Harris with all the other names having been thrown out there to keep up the suspense.

The DNC doesn't know who Biden's pick is. Maybe his wife and his sister know, but no one else apparently does yet, including the pick herself. The convention speakers can be rotated once the announcement is made.

I don't think Rice will would do harm to the ticket but the knives are already out to get her. If she is the pick, expect to hear "Bengazi!" as much as we will continue to hear "the Bidens and Ukraine" and other nasty Republican epithets.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Sabin »

Joe Biden is about to announce his running mate, possibly today. Betting odds have it between Kamala Harris and Susan Rice. Both make a lot of sense for very different reasons. The DNC just put out its speaking lineup and Susan Rice wasn't featured whereas Kamala Harris was featured on Thursday (VP set to speak on Wednesday) so either that's a hint or they're trolling us. Either way, let's talk about what each one brings.

I'm trying to think of the last time someone ran for the Presidency and seemed both a serious Presidential and Vice Presidential contender at the same time. Maybe Barack Obama in 2008? When people speculate about a ticket, there's always a fan-fiction-y element to it that doesn't account for the intangibles of the race. It retrospect, it almost never happens. Remember Romney/Rubio? But Biden/Harris always seemed like such a no-brainer even the candidates commented on it. If nominated, Joe Biden would serve (as he himself acknowledged) as a transitional figure to the next generation of (possibly two term-serving) Obama Coalition Dem. At least that was the case until Kamala Harris called Joe Biden out for busing. This was the big moment of Kamala Harris' campaign. Her first debate was one of the best I've ever seen. But her campaign flamed out afterwards pretty quickly. It's worth mentioning that the inner workings of her campaign were apparently pretty messy. But Kamala Harris brings a lot to the table: she's a charismatic proxy for the less exciting Joe Biden, she brings fundraising, she may not be the most experienced candidate (despite to be fair over fifteen years in California politics) but she's certainly ready to run in four years.

So, the question is: does Biden like her? Did he ever get over being called out on a public stage? And is he impressed by her? Joe Biden has repeatedly said that the most important thing to him is loyalty and a partner in government. Basically he wants his own Joe Biden. Does he think Kamala Harris can fill that role?

We know he thinks Susan Rice can. They were apparently very close during Obama's administration. She's never run a political race in her life, she's always made more sense as Sec State, but he likes her, he can trust her, and if Joe Biden is looking for somebody experienced to fill in if something happens to him, that's her. And if his top priority is COVID containment, she was high profile during the Obama administration's role in containing Ebola. That said, she is a target rich environment. Benghazi was a long time ago but Susan Rice is probably the only choice Biden could make that could add oxygen to the dying flame that Joe Biden is a puppet. She's a total unknown on the public stage but there are all these weird aspersions made against her: Benghazi was her fault, she spied on Donald Trump, etc. I can see her being successfully Othered by the right.

The other big question is what does Obama think. Well, in this case, he likes both of them a lot. I think we have to ask ourselves does Joe Biden want somebody who is more a political asset than a policy asset? The role of Vice President is traditionally a political role, but that is less and less the case with every administration. Dick Cheney and even Joe Biden were chosen to off-set concerns about the President's lack of experience. That's obviously not the case with Joe Biden but he still probably wants that. And he also recognizes their faults. Susan Rice isn't enough of a political creature and Kamala Harris may not be polished enough yet but can learn... which dovetails into everything Joe Biden has said about being a bridge to the next generation of Democrat.

We'll find out later today but I think the smart money since the beginning is the smart money today: Kamala Harris for Vice President and Susan Rice for Secretary of State. The organization of the DNC's lineup makes it pretty clear that they're going for a united Democratic Party with a smart blend of new talent plus getting people excited about getting the gang back together.
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Re: Campaign 2020

Post by Big Magilla »

Sabin wrote:
Sabin wrote
Tomorrow's gonna be a big day.

According to Twitter:
NY AG Letitia James just announced she will make a major national announcement tomorrow at 11:30.

See y'all there!
Well... they're dissolving the NRA.

Still big.
Not exactly. They're filing a lawsuit against the NRA to dissolve their New York based charitable arm, not the organization as a whole. Their lobbying arm will remain intact.
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