Campaign 2020

Mister Tee
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Mister Tee » Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:36 pm

She seemed so obvious a choice that I had the paranoid fear they'd pass her by just because.

I'm elated.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:56 pm

I don't get to say this often, but...

I TOLD YOU SO!

Congratulations, KAMALA HARRIS.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sonic Youth » Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:26 pm

Big Magilla wrote:I don't think Rice will would do harm to the ticket but the knives are already out to get her. If she is the pick, expect to hear "Bengazi!" as much as we will continue to hear "the Bidens and Ukraine" and other nasty Republican epithets.


That aside, it also wouldn't go over well with the Bernie-left. Of all the things the far-left may admire about the Obama administration, foreign policy is not among them, and Susan Rice was instrumental in those decisions. If a Biden presidency means a continuation of those policies, that will only decrease the overall enthusiasm level.

ETA: Never mind...
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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby danfrank » Tue Aug 11, 2020 3:24 pm

It’s Kamala, apparently

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Tue Aug 11, 2020 2:04 pm

I suspect it's going to be Harris with all the other names having been thrown out there to keep up the suspense.

The DNC doesn't know who Biden's pick is. Maybe his wife and his sister know, but no one else apparently does yet, including the pick herself. The convention speakers can be rotated once the announcement is made.

I don't think Rice will would do harm to the ticket but the knives are already out to get her. If she is the pick, expect to hear "Bengazi!" as much as we will continue to hear "the Bidens and Ukraine" and other nasty Republican epithets.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:06 pm

Joe Biden is about to announce his running mate, possibly today. Betting odds have it between Kamala Harris and Susan Rice. Both make a lot of sense for very different reasons. The DNC just put out its speaking lineup and Susan Rice wasn't featured whereas Kamala Harris was featured on Thursday (VP set to speak on Wednesday) so either that's a hint or they're trolling us. Either way, let's talk about what each one brings.

I'm trying to think of the last time someone ran for the Presidency and seemed both a serious Presidential and Vice Presidential contender at the same time. Maybe Barack Obama in 2008? When people speculate about a ticket, there's always a fan-fiction-y element to it that doesn't account for the intangibles of the race. It retrospect, it almost never happens. Remember Romney/Rubio? But Biden/Harris always seemed like such a no-brainer even the candidates commented on it. If nominated, Joe Biden would serve (as he himself acknowledged) as a transitional figure to the next generation of (possibly two term-serving) Obama Coalition Dem. At least that was the case until Kamala Harris called Joe Biden out for busing. This was the big moment of Kamala Harris' campaign. Her first debate was one of the best I've ever seen. But her campaign flamed out afterwards pretty quickly. It's worth mentioning that the inner workings of her campaign were apparently pretty messy. But Kamala Harris brings a lot to the table: she's a charismatic proxy for the less exciting Joe Biden, she brings fundraising, she may not be the most experienced candidate (despite to be fair over fifteen years in California politics) but she's certainly ready to run in four years.

So, the question is: does Biden like her? Did he ever get over being called out on a public stage? And is he impressed by her? Joe Biden has repeatedly said that the most important thing to him is loyalty and a partner in government. Basically he wants his own Joe Biden. Does he think Kamala Harris can fill that role?

We know he thinks Susan Rice can. They were apparently very close during Obama's administration. She's never run a political race in her life, she's always made more sense as Sec State, but he likes her, he can trust her, and if Joe Biden is looking for somebody experienced to fill in if something happens to him, that's her. And if his top priority is COVID containment, she was high profile during the Obama administration's role in containing Ebola. That said, she is a target rich environment. Benghazi was a long time ago but Susan Rice is probably the only choice Biden could make that could add oxygen to the dying flame that Joe Biden is a puppet. She's a total unknown on the public stage but there are all these weird aspersions made against her: Benghazi was her fault, she spied on Donald Trump, etc. I can see her being successfully Othered by the right.

The other big question is what does Obama think. Well, in this case, he likes both of them a lot. I think we have to ask ourselves does Joe Biden want somebody who is more a political asset than a policy asset? The role of Vice President is traditionally a political role, but that is less and less the case with every administration. Dick Cheney and even Joe Biden were chosen to off-set concerns about the President's lack of experience. That's obviously not the case with Joe Biden but he still probably wants that. And he also recognizes their faults. Susan Rice isn't enough of a political creature and Kamala Harris may not be polished enough yet but can learn... which dovetails into everything Joe Biden has said about being a bridge to the next generation of Democrat.

We'll find out later today but I think the smart money since the beginning is the smart money today: Kamala Harris for Vice President and Susan Rice for Secretary of State. The organization of the DNC's lineup makes it pretty clear that they're going for a united Democratic Party with a smart blend of new talent plus getting people excited about getting the gang back together.
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:26 am

Sabin wrote:
Sabin wrote
Tomorrow's gonna be a big day.

According to Twitter:
NY AG Letitia James just announced she will make a major national announcement tomorrow at 11:30.

See y'all there!

Well... they're dissolving the NRA.

Still big.

Not exactly. They're filing a lawsuit against the NRA to dissolve their New York based charitable arm, not the organization as a whole. Their lobbying arm will remain intact.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Thu Aug 06, 2020 11:01 am

Sabin wrote
Tomorrow's gonna be a big day.

According to Twitter:
NY AG Letitia James just announced she will make a major national announcement tomorrow at 11:30.

See y'all there!

Well... they're dissolving the NRA.

Still big.
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Okri » Thu Aug 06, 2020 7:35 am

Sabin wrote:Either way, one of the great sliding doors moments we'll be asking ourselves for years to come is "Would Trump have gotten re-elected if it wasn't for the Coronavirus?" Lichtman's scale seems to think he might've.


Yeah. I think he would have, to be honest.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Wed Aug 05, 2020 10:08 pm

Tomorrow's gonna be a big day.

According to Twitter:
NY AG Letitia James just announced she will make a major national announcement tomorrow at 11:30.

See y'all there!
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Sabin » Wed Aug 05, 2020 9:37 pm

I saw that too. I was surprised to see Lichtman giving Trump the Policy Change key. Either way, Trump has 7 keys against him. This means if it wasn't for the Coronavirus, the long-term economy certainly would have held. The short-term economy possibly would have stayed strong and it is possible that the level of social unrest we are seeing would have been slightly lessened with full economy. It's worth noting that the last time the social unrest key was turned against an incumbent, it was the Vietnam War protests. I think with everybody at work, we don't see the same level of protest. Either way, one of the great sliding doors moments we'll be asking ourselves for years to come is "Would Trump have gotten re-elected if it wasn't for the Coronavirus?" Lichtman's scale seems to think he might've.
"Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough." ~ FDR

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:55 pm

From The Hill:

According to Lichtman’s system, seven factors favor the former vice president, including Democrats making gains in the 2018 midterm elections, short- and long-term economic hits amid the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, and “social unrest” sparked by the police killing of George Floyd earlier this year.

Lichtman also cited “scandal” for the White House, including Trump’s impeachment earlier this year, and the president not having any major foreign or military successes. He also claimed that Trump is not a “charismatic” candidate for large swaths of the country. The factors that favor the president include there being "no primary contest for the White House party," Trump being the incumbent and there being no significant third-party challenger. Lichtman also cited major policy changes such as Trump’s 2017 tax cut, the White House having no major foreign or military failures, and Biden not being "inspirational or charismatic."

However, Lichtman admitted that “there are forces at play outside the keys,” citing potential voter suppression efforts, possible meddling from Russia in the 2020 election and more.

“It’s up to you, the voter, to decide the future of our democracy,” he said.

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Okri » Wed Aug 05, 2020 6:20 pm

Greg wrote:Although it is by now anticimactic, Allan Lichtman just predicted that Biden will defeat Trump.


Maybe but it is still a relief

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Greg » Wed Aug 05, 2020 4:47 pm

Although it is by now anticimactic, Allan Lichtman just predicted that Biden will defeat Trump.
"Let's be honest, the federal government has a printing press in their basement. When they have the political will, they find the money."

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Re: Campaign 2020

Postby Big Magilla » Fri Jul 31, 2020 8:00 am

If this tidbit from Vanity Fair isn't tantamount to U.S. genocide, I don't know what is:

"Most troubling of all, perhaps, was a sentiment the expert said a member of Kushner’s team expressed: that because the virus had hit blue states hardest, a national plan was unnecessary and would not make sense politically. “The political folks believed that because it was going to be relegated to Democratic states, that they could blame those governors, and that would be an effective political strategy,” said the expert.

That logic may have swayed Kushner. “It was very clear that Jared was ultimately the decision maker as to what [plan] was going to come out,” the expert said."

Full article here:
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/07 ... o-thin-air


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