2019 Baseball Post-season

danfrank
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Re: 2019 Baseball Post-season

Post by danfrank »

Congrats, Tee, on your team being the first one through to the LCS. If the Yankees can keep hitting the way they have, or have even a short lead at the point that it becomes a bullpen game (I'm terribly envious of that bullpen), I like their chances. However, the talented Astros starters, assuming they get through, might have something to say about that. As for "agony," to misquote Bette Davis, being a baseball fan ain't for sissies. Often it's agony up to the point where you actually win. I do feel for the Twins fans, though. A great season can go up in smoke just like that, as it might for the Dodgers tomorrow.
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Re: 2019 Baseball Post-season

Post by Mister Tee »

All four series began yesterday with the chance for one team to clinch. Only one team succeeded -- and, hey: it was mine!

Save that for later. Begin with the National League, and go back a day.

The Cardinals carried a 1-0 lead Sunday as far as is humanly possible without a win: 2 outs into the 9th. Then, with the tying run sitting on 2nd, they defied one of the oldest of baseball dicta ("never put the winning run on base"), intentionally walking lefty-swinging Brian McCann to face a right-hander. The baseball gods punished them mightily, as the next batter not only delivered the tying base-hit, the one following delivered a 2-run double to put the game away.

It's hard to come back from such a blow, and when, yesterday, an Albies 3-run home run put the Braves up 4-3 in mid-innings, it seemed St. Louis had used up its mojo for the season. But it turned out it was their day for a late comeback, as Molina delivered first the tying run (on a single that just eluded the second baseman with 2 out in the 8th), then the game-winning sac fly in the 10th.

How will Game 5 go? I think most people still think the Braves are the better team -- the one with the best chance to keep the Dodgers from another Series appearance -- but it's worth noting that the St. Louis franchise has a history of succeeding in post-season, while Atlanta's last three decades have mostly been marked by under-achieving.

The Dodger/Nats face-off was less dramatic -- both Games 3 and 4 were decided by large margins -- but the result was the same 1-1 split. The Nats actually led Game 3 through middle innings, but the Dodgers teed off on starter-playing-reliever Patrick Corbin, and won easily. Davey Martinez has apparently concluded from this that Scherzer and Strasburg are his only reliable moundsmen, so Scherzer started and won yesterday (helped by a 3-run homer from team mainstay Ryan Zimmerman), and Strasburg will helm Game 5. This over-reliance on two starters carries queasy echoes of Gene Mauch's Bunning/Short rotation in 1964 that's still a Philadelphia nightmare...but the Nats have not much to lose by trying it.

On to the AL.

The trading-deadline acquisition of Zack Greinke was supposed to have been the final piece to put the Astros over the top this year, but yesterday it appeared he missed the memo, as he gave up one long bomb after another, and had to be removed in the 4th. Putative fourth starter Wade Miley fared no better, and, despite the Astros driving Charlie Morton out by pitch-count after 5, the Rays coasted to a 10-3 win.

With Miley out of the picture, the Astros are opting to go with Verlander in Game 4, on short rest, and no one knows how that'll go. Verlander is an immortal, but apparently not very used to pitching that way. The Rays are still pretty deep underdogs, but while they breathe, they hope.

Finally, my Yankees. I'll echo Sonic's take, and in fact confide that "agony game" is my long-preferred nomenclature for games just like last night's. I think this was a game danfrank would have loved -- even though it ended 5-1 -- because 1) the Yankees' last 2 runs scored in the top of the 9th, so it was much closer all the way; 2) it featured Severino wriggling out of a bases-loaded/no out situation in the third; 3) 2 of the Yankees' 3 early runs were scored on 2-out singles; and 4) there were something like five exceptional plays in the field -- by LeMahiieu, Torres, Judge, Britton, Gregorious -- the last in the 9th, putting a dagger through the Twins' last-ditch rally. It was a game worthy of a series win.

So, we Yankee fans sit and wait to see who else will advance, while feeling good about what's come so far, and excited about what might follow.
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Re: 2019 Baseball Post-season

Post by Sonic Youth »

Regardless of who you were rooting for, can we all agree that the Yankees-Twins game was agony to watch? My brother has lived in St Paul for many years now, and he roots for both the Twins and the New York teams. I can only imagine the pain his friends and co-workers are going through this morning.
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Re: 2019 Baseball Post-season

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So, eight games have been played. In the NL, both sets are tied 1-1, and are guaranteed to go at least 4 games. In the AL, for the moment, the prospect of sweep is still alive for both.

The Braves got a strong pitching performance from a guy whose name I won't attempt to spell, and held on despite a late St. Louis threat. So, they go to St. Louis even, in a series most thought would be easy pickings for the Braves.

The Nats surprised me by starting Strasburg, and then surprised me again by throwing Scherzer an inning in relief. (I'd suggested/assumed neither would be available till DC.) Even that was barely enough to eke out a 4-2 win, which ended with the Dodgers loading the bases in the 9th. Kershaw had started for LA and wasn't bad -- 3 earned runs -- but I'm told it was his first post-season loss at Chavez Ravine.

I have no idea what the Nats' rotation plan could be, after this.

The Rays loaded the bases in their 9th inning yesterday against the Astros, too, but was too little to late, as they lost 3-1, after falling 6-2 the previous day. Houston pitching has thus far lived up to its billing, and the Rays don't look up to the task of rallying -- though having Charlie Morton ready for Game 3 gives them their best shot.

The Yankees/Twins match-up has been far noisier. James Paxton managed only a mediocre start in Game 1, but his team cruised anyway, thanks to massive traffic on the bases. The Twins actually out-homered the home team 3-2, but all those Minnesota goners were solo shots. Meantime, the Yankees capitalized on multiple bases-loaded situations -- a Gleyber Torres two-run double in the 5th (after an 8 or 9 pitch at bat) and a DJ LeMahieu bases-clearing job in the 7th put the game away.

Saturday's game was decided even earlier, as the Yanks scored 7 in the 3rd, highlighted by a Didi Gregorious "will it stay fair/yes it will!" grand slam. Not to be overlooked: Masahiro Tanaka's five innings of 1-run ball puts him for the moment in the all-time top five for post-season ERA (minimum five starts) -- an achievement that seems all the more impressive since the four above him are Sandy Koufax, and three guys from the dead-ball era. (Christy Mathewson! Eddie Plank!)

Since the Yankees rallied from just such an 0-2 deficit against Cleveland two years back, no one is presuming the series is done -- a 101-win Minnesota team will remain dangerous. But certainly, for the moment, the Yankees couldn't be happier with how things are going, and the long-envisioned NY/Houston rematch in the ALCS is closer to realization.
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Re: 2019 Baseball Post-season

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A few words on today's double-barrelled kickoff of the NLDS:

When a game that enters the 8th inning at 3-1 ends up 7-6 (with the team team initially trailing getting the win), you can safely say there was a lot of late action. The Braves led St. Louis 3-1, the go-ahead runs having scored on an egregious double-error on the infield with the bases loaded, but the Cards tied it in the 8th on what ESPN labelled a blast and a bloop -- a Goldschmidt homer, followed later by a two-out looper that just landed fair. In the 9th, St. Louis plated four on two bases-loaded hits, one barely fair past third base, the other its mirror image past first. The 4-run lead almost wasn't enough, as Atlanta managed a two-run homer and solo shot before the Cardinals finally nailed it down. I think a lot of people came into this series thinking Atlanta was easily the better team; St. Louis grabbing the road win may cause some re-evaluation.

No such upset -- or excitement -- in LA, where Walker Buehler was close to untouchable for six innings, and the Dodger bullpen kept his shutout intact. Patrick Corbin was pretty good himself -- he had a ragged first inning, where he literally walked a run home (all four batters reached on BB), and later had a run score on a error, but that was about it. The problem for him was 1) no offense and 2) the Nats bullpen, which eliminated all suspense by giving up 4 additional runs, putting the game out of reach.

Tomorrow's the truly crazy day: four games, from early afternoon through late night. It's also when my team finally puts it on the line. Funny: I've been looking forward to this, in a sense, all season...but now that it's here, I'm not only struggling through the flu, I'm infinitely more captivated by the DC madness, and semi-reluctantly turn away to watch the games.
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Re: 2019 Baseball Post-season

Post by Mister Tee »

danfrank wrote: I heard an interview today with Billy Beane, early sabremetric adopter, make a good case for teams to build around the home run due to its run-scoring efficiency, especially in combination with skill in drawing walks.
Earl Weaver was an intuitive analytics guy before his time. He always said the key to baseball was a walk, an error, and a three-run homer.

Tonight's AL Wild Card game showed us there's not always exciting last-minute reversal. Early Tampa Bay home runs stood up, as the A's only scored one unearned run the whole night, despite knocking Charlie Morton out after only five innings.

Billy Beane famously said "My shit doesn't work in the playoffs", and that still seems true for Oakland. Based on their play down the stretch, I thought they were a legitimate candidate to upset the Astros or Yankees; now they couldn't get past the Rays. It shows just how random the post-season can be.
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Re: 2019 Baseball Post-season

Post by FilmFan720 »

The sting of that Cubs end of the season hasn't really gone away, and I have to admit that I have checked out of the season in many ways.

Last night, after clearing off the DVR, I crawled into bed and turned on the game one pitch before Soto's hit. What an ending to the game!

Not sure who I am rooting for here, but I would love to see the Nationals finally make a run at things. They are a likable group and it is always fun to see a team that has never won finally go far.
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Re: 2019 Baseball Post-season

Post by danfrank »

Mister Tee wrote:
If you love home runs, 2019 was for you (which is to say, danfrank, step aside).
I heard an interview today with Billy Beane, early sabremetric adopter, make a good case for teams to build around the home run due to its run-scoring efficiency, especially in combination with skill in drawing walks. It’s hard to argue with him in terms of playing winning ball, but it makes for a dull game. It makes it much less of a team sport but rather just a pitcher-hitter duel. The worst aspect of it for me is that it takes the defense, my favorite part of baseball, out of the game.

That aside, thanks for a nice summary, Tee. This season was significant for me in that it was Bruce Bochy’s last as a manager. I think he is one of the greats, seemingly always just a little smarter than the guy in the other dugout. The farewell ceremony after game 162 was quite moving. The number of his former players to come and pay their respects was impressive indeed.

I will be rooting for the A’s tomorrow and for as far as they can make it. The Astros seem to be the team to beat with their outstanding starters. We will see. I didn’t get to see the NL wildcard tonight, but I feel terrible for that right fielder. Maybe it’s the break the Nats need to break their postseason curse.
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Re: 2019 Baseball Post-season

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The Wild Card game -- I speak from too much recent experience -- is a shock-of-reality event. Your team has just celebrated making the post-season...for most Wild Card participants, it was only a day or three ago...and now you're forced to confront the fact that it can all disappear in the space of a few hours. Two teams had to confront that sudden-mortality tonight -- one for 7 2/3 innings, the other for a shorter but much more lethal single frame.

It started out, like so many key National post-season games, badly. Scherzer wasn't sharp, but he got jobbed by the home plate umpire, who called two clear strikes balls, leading to a game-opening walk. Perhaps rattled, Scherzer gave up a two-run homer on the next pitch. For the longest part of the evening, it seemed like, as Warner Wolf used to say, "You could have turned your sets off there" because, apart from the two teams trading solo home runs, there was no more scoring.

Until the bottom of the 8th, when a lackluster rally -- hit batsman, broken-bat single, walk -- loaded the bases for hot youngster Juan Soto. Soto's two-out single would have tied the game for sure, but the Brewer right fielder (playing in place of injured Christian Yelich -- ah, kismet!) let the ball get past him Bill Buckner-style, and the Nationals had the runs that, three outs later, sent them to LA for the NLDS. It's the kind of game the Nats have been losing for a decade now; karma finally decided to take their side.

It was a costly win for Washington -- Scherzer only went 5 innings, and, because the Nat bulllpen is deeply unreliable, Strasburg pitched the next 3 (superbly). Meaning neither of them will be available till game 3 of the NLDS, putting the team at a disadvantage against the Dodgers -- the kind of handicap intended when the Wild Card game was added. But that's for later discussion. For now: the Nats get to play in a real series, a trade the Brewers would happily have taken.
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2019 Baseball Post-season

Post by Mister Tee »

I’m currently being whacked by some flu-ish thing, so I may be less thorough than usual, but, herein, find the kickoff to our traditional baseball post-season discussion.

If you love home runs, 2019 was for you (which is to say, danfrank, step aside). Both leagues set new records for total home runs, and four teams smashed through the existing single-team record (set last year!). Journeymen who’d previously had trouble cracking double-digits found themselves in the 25-30 range. Pete Alonso of the Mets bested his team’s all-time record by ten, and in the process inched past Aaron Judge’s rookie record. It’s odd that, amidst all this, no one made a serious run at McGwire/Bonds territory (or even the pre-steroid Maris/Ruth number); maybe because two who might have – Stanton and Judge – spent significant time on what we’re now calling the I.L. The commissioner’s office never quite came out and admitted the ball must be juiced, but there have been discussions of policing the manufacture of next year’s batch. I’m guessing, within a short time, this year’s results will be viewed the way late 90s/early 00s are…with deep suspicion, if not a full-on asterisk.

There was a lot of attention given to those home runs, partly because there wasn’t much tight competition on display. The Dodgers, Yankees, Astros and Braves had control of their divisions by mid-season; only the Central sectors of each league offered a bit of a race – and, even there, the Twins in the end held onto their early lead, and the Cardinals stayed firm despite pushes by first the Cubs and then the Brewers. The only real question the final week was which of three Wild Card hopefuls in each league would fall short – it turned out to be the Indians (hobbled a bit too much by injury in the end), and, startlingly, the Cubs, who, after sweeping the till-then-hopeful Mets in late August, looked for all the world like they’d coast to the finish, but lost 5 consecutive 1-run games in the late going.

The other shocking omission is the defending World Champion Red Sox, who started the season in something like a nose-dive, kept assuming a hot streak would come to put them back in the race, but in the end failed to make even a convincing Wild Card run. Those of us who thought they over-achieved a bit last year nodded knowingly, as they won 24 fewer games with essentially the same roster.

So, finally, on to those who did survive the marathon.

Today will see the Nationals face off against the Brewers in the NL Wild Card game. The Nats, perennial fan-disappointers, actually deserve a bit of credit for this year. They had a start that rivalled Boston for its dire quality – but they, unlike the Sox, managed a second wind, rather easily taking the top Wild Card slot. With Scherzer and Strasburg, they have the super-duper starter to get through the nerve-racking one-game elimination. But they’ll have to face off against the Brewers, who’ve been defying gravity for the past month. Few thought they’d outlast the Cubs to begin with, and, once they lost Yelich, their situation seemed hopeless. But here they are, missing the division by only 1 game, with a chance to move on tonight.

Tomorrow, the AL will feature Oakland vs. Tampa Bay. Oakland’s season followed their recent pattern: lally-gagging through the initial months of the season, then becoming close to unbeatable post-All-Star break (the league’s biggest winners, Houston and NY, both struggled mightily against them in late season match-ups). If the team could ever manage to set their wake-up call to April, they might challenge Houston for the division. Tampa Bay, meantime, is the year’s surprise team. It was they, not the Yankees, who initially benefited from the Red Sox’s dismal start, holding first place into June. They did slip eventually, but played well down the stretch, enough to eke past Cleveland for this shot at the tournament. The Rays, because of their small payroll, have done a lot of experimenting in recent years, and many of their innovations – the extreme shift, frequent use of openers – have been adopted by other franchises. It may be they’re like Billy Beane’s A’s – built for the marathon of the regular season, less effective in the playoffs. But we’ll see.

As for the division winners: the Dodgers, who had to fight hard last year, coasted this time around. They feature basically the same cast of characters we’ve come to know in the past few seasons, some performing above expectation (Cody Bellinger was the established slugger who most capitalized on the home run boom), but, basically, they’re the same team that’s contended in the Series two years running, and hope the third time’s the charm. The Braves are also what they were last year – a team with a collection of stellar young players -- except a year older, confident from having won their division relatively easily in consecutive years. As for the Cardinals – I’m told it’s not the case, but it seems they contend every year, and I’m never surprised to see them in the post-season.

Over on the A.L. side, the Astros brought back their roster of established winners, added super-rookie Yordan Alvarez and, at the trading deadline, Zach Greinke, and racked up their third straight 100-win season. ESPN pretty much anointed them World Champions in April, and they may get there – but they have to deal with first the Wild Card winner and then another 100-win team, either the Twins or the Yankees. The Twins benefitted most from the year’s long-ball explosion, ending up with the new all-time record of 305. For a brief period in August, it appeared their inexperience might hobble them against division perennial Cleveland, but their 101 wins helped them win easily in the end. They play the Yankees in the first round, a team that has broken their October hearts more times than one can count, but, rather than finding that discouraging, they may look at it as I do: that the law of averages suggests they’re due to triumph at some point.

As for those Yankees…they brought their stellar roster to play, followed up their 100 wins from last year with 103 this year, and easily won the AL East.

This, of course, is deeply misleading, as anyone who’s paid a modicum of attention knows. The Yankees started Spring training knowing they’d be without Didi Gregorius till Memorial Day at earliest. When they broke camp, they’d lost Aaron Hicks, Dellin Betances and Luis Severino (the latter two, it turned out, till mid-September – and Betances only lasted two batters there). Within the first ten days of the regular season, Miguel Andujar and Giancarlo Stanton were gone for, essentially, the season (though Stanton is back for the playoffs). When, on April 20th, Aaron Judge left the field with a lat injury that cost him 50 games (and later on-field rehab), the team could have been forgiven a complete collapse. Miraculously, this not only didn’t happen – the team excelled. The few regulars who didn’t lose significant time – Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez – played at all-star level. Projected infield backup DJ LeMahieu surprised us all, almost winning the batting title and driving in 100 runs. Brett Gardner was one of those journeymen who benefitted from the home run surge, setting a personal record at age 37. And a bunch of has-beens/never-was-es – Gio Urshela, Mike Tauchman, Mike Ford, Cameron Maybin, Domingo German – outperformed all expectations. I’ve been telling people it’s like the Disney Sleeping Beauty: a Maleficent cast a “you’ll lose basically every star player to significant injury” spell, but the one fairy who hadn’t yet given her gift offset it with “but their no-name replacements will play so far over their heads, it’ll barely make a difference.”

The downside? It’s hard to know what the true team core is as we head into post-season. Injuries continue (Tauchman, Hicks, late-acquisition Encarnacion all seem unavailable right now, and Voit/Sanchez/Urshela are recently back and not in much of a groove), and the team’s post-clinching play has been desultory at best. It’d be a shame if the mojo that made them such an exciting, never-out-of-it team from April through mid-September were to desert them at the key time. But I have to say I’m a bit nervous heading into the playoffs.

More to come, after some games have been played.
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