Stay Safe Everyone!

[Precious Doll]

Things appear to be going belly-up pretty much everywhere.

Melbourne or at the very least some of its suburbs which have become 'hotspots' are on the brink of going into another lockdown within days depending on positive test results in the next couple of days.

And how did these 'hotspots' emerge. People with symptoms doing the right thing and getting tested only to ignore the 'stay at home and isolate' order and continued to go to work, school and family gatherings spreading the virus to a large number of people.

[Reza]

Why are you still reading this?

Because you also just described Pakistan. Fucking ignorant people doing the same here.

[Sonic Youth]

If you're depressed, don't read. If you're not depressed, don't read because you'll get depressed. Basically, what I'm saying is, don't read this.

For all the efforts many people have put in to stop the spread, we - "we" being America - really haven't changed anything, and the worst case scenarios the doomsaying models were chicken-littling about in February are looking more prescient than ever. Beaches and outdoor demonstrations may not be flashpoints of contagion, but house parties are, and that seems to be the newest thing: lots and lots of house parties, with under-30s celebrating like it's the end of the world. And why not? Can you blame them? It kind of is, never mind that they're expediting it.

So, assuming an IFR of 1% is the case, and assuming the virus has a similar pattern to the 1918 pandemic - which means it'll be at its most lethal in the winter months - half-a-million deaths in this country would be a cause for celebration. More likely, we're looking at 2.5 million by this time next year. And in a region where "comorbidities" are common, a decent sized city of 400 thou, like... oh, what a coincidence! Tulsa!!... will lose 10,000. And there's always the possibility - a pretty good one, actually - that treatments will improve (forget about a vaccine), but relying on that means we have to accept that the virus will pass through every one of us. Since we've proven to be a stupid, unreliable, non-compliant country when it comes to lockdowns, masks, distancing and tracing, we're.... and allow me to use an obscure medical term.... fucked.

Why are you still reading this?

[Big Magilla]

Do people who "share" this kind of crap on Facebook have any idea how stupid they make themselves look?

[Sonic Youth]

I think it's safe to say that Trump's Tulsa rally last night will be far less of a viral flashpoint than predicted.

I know most people didn't wear masks, but did they at least social distance? There was plenty of room to do so.

[mlrg]

I skimmed through an article from the Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences that claims face masks are more effective in slowing covid spread than partial shutdowns. It examined data from Wuhan, Italy, and NYC. Wuhan mandated face masks and shut down at the same time, but, Italy and NYC shut down first and mandated face masks later. The drop in covid cases for Italy and NYC after the face mask mandates was greater than after the shutdowns. You should be able to track down the article if you Google PNAS face masks.

South Korea did the same thing, proving that lockdowns are ineffective.

[Greg]

I skimmed through an article from the Proceedings Of The National Academy Of Sciences that claims face masks are more effective in slowing covid spread than partial shutdowns. It examined data from Wuhan, Italy, and NYC. Wuhan mandated face masks and shut down at the same time, but, Italy and NYC shut down first and mandated face masks later. The drop in covid cases for Italy and NYC after the face mask mandates was greater than after the shutdowns. You should be able to track down the article if you Google PNAS face masks.

In Florida there is no statewide mandate, but, several counties have them, most recently in Orange County (Orlando).

It is doubly (or more) ironic that Trump is mocking the one way, until there is a vaccine, to safely substantially reopen the economy.

[dws1982]

If anyone is interested in an antibody test, for a limited time Red Cross is doing antibody testing on all blood donations; you can search your location on their website to find a Red Cross-sponsored blood drive or one of their blood donation centers.

[Mister Tee]

Oscar Guy is correct, that the paradox of successful mitigation is it prevents deaths, leading people to conclude the crisis was overstated and we didn't need all that mitigation. In the same way no one ever totals the number of lives saved though foiled terror plots. mlrg. if your country has only had 1 medical worker fatality, the proper response is a sigh of relief, not accusing others of over-hyping. NY has lost hundreds of health care workers, which I can't remember happening from any other outbreak.

As I understand it, a standard flu season leads to roughly 20,000 deaths over the course of a full year. We've passed 120,000 in just three months, and that's with the most radical mitigation program any of us have seen in our lifetimes (unless you're over 100 years old). Without that mitigation, who knows how high it would have gone? (The people of Arizona and Florida seem determined to test that question, though, even there, many urban dwellers are sticking to the guidelines their governors are too dumb/Trump-fearful to implement.) If we used such a system during flu season, deaths would probably be in single digits.

I heard a doctor say the other day that the protests were set on a balance beam -- masks/outdoors matched against large gatherings/chanting. For the moment, it appears the masks/outdoors part has dominated and might spare us a major flare-up, for which we can count ourselves lucky. But the idiots who are filling that Tulsa arena tonight are plunging headlong into danger.

I had a conversation last week with a high school friend who's a long-time Republican and voted Trump in 2016. He didn't say what he's planning to do in November, but two things he said stuck with me: 1) "I like to think of myself as a Clint Eastwood Republican, but a lot of people seem more like Back to the Future Biff Republicans"; 2) "Not wearing a mask doesn't make you brave; it makes you a jerk"

[Precious Doll]

Precious Doll, I'm skeptical that the virus "lays dormant" then strikes again. Some people who get the virus can test positively for several months after the initial infection. It would appear that people have very strong antibody responses after recovery. I'm seeing almost nothing about reinfections, and the very few stories that I do see aren't very convincing. If it is true, then it's extremely rare.

Sonic, Very sorry to hear about the people you know affected by this insidious disease. There have been numerous reports of people having very slow recoveries. St. Vincents Hospital in Sydney is conducting a study into such cases as the numbers are alarming given the very low number of people infected in Australia.

I suppose the jury is still out on whether the virus 'lays dormat'. I have heard of people not being 'cleared' of the virus for months and there have been a couple of cases in Australia of people who supposedly caught the virus months ago and only recently became symptomatic. I use the term 'supposedly' because I am going by vague press reports and not known facts.

It is probably more likely that people who become 're-infected' simply had not cleared the virus from their system than them being reinfected. I'm fairly certain that is the case with a few people in South Korea as the virus has been pretty well kept under control there so the chances of re-infection would be very slim.

As to how long people's bodies will maintain antibodies is really and wait and see thing though indications are that people with more serious infections of COVID-19 create more antibodies than those with mild or no symptoms. It's really unlikely that anybody will obtain lifelong immunity to the virus given that with other members of the coronavirus infections immunity only lasts for a limited period of time (6 months to 3 years depending on what one reads).

On the plus side the virus isn't mutating very much which brings me to the first I've heard of another virus that after all these years has mutated into a new strain and no longer responds to treatment: HIV in Papua New Guinea: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-20/ ... g/12361846

[OscarGuy]

mlrg, do not even think that this has been exaggerated for profit by anyone. I must reiterate, it was said early on that measures will be thought to have been too aggressive because it wasn't as bad as anyone thought, but that it was exactly because the measures were aggressive that it wasn't as bad as anyone thought. That's the sign that it worked.

[Sonic Youth]

Also, what are the long term effects of catching the virus? Some small studies have already indicated that half of asymptomatic patients have lung damage from contracting the virus. Is this long term or short term? There are indications that the virus lays dormant in some people only to reemerge a couple of months later.

Some people with more severe cases of COVID-19 are suffering organ damage. I could go on and on and on.

A primarily respiratory illness for most but with cardiovascular, neurological or other ramifications for others = weird new disease in its infancy that little more is none of than 5 months ago.

I know two people in their early 30s who were infected with COVID-19. One, who is 31, smokes and is obese. For her, it was nothing more than a week long cold. The second, a year older, is (was) the model of perfect health, slim, energetic, was a vegetarian for a few years. She caught it nearly 3 months ago, and she's still undergoing a prolonged recovery. She's had to go to ER for severe respiratory symptoms. For months, she couldn't walk more than 15 minutes without getting winded. She also sees a neurologist (symptoms include memory loss, "dysexecutive functioning" and other fibromyalgia-like symptoms). Her respiratory conditions are much better 3 months later; her neurological conditions are persisting and hopefully not permanent. IOW, this is not a time to be dismissive, because no matter how healthy you are, you never know what the end result will be for you should you catch it.

Oh, and as for the first friend of mine. She recovered quickly, but the virus went through much of her family, including a grandmother who had to be hospitalized, and an aunt who died from it.

Precious Doll, I'm skeptical that the virus "lays dormant" then strikes again. Some people who get the virus can test positively for several months after the initial infection. It would appear that people have very strong antibody responses after recovery. I'm seeing almost nothing about reinfections, and the very few stories that I do see aren't very convincing. If it is true, then it's extremely rare.

[Precious Doll]

It has not been exaggerated:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ers-deaths

Furthermore if one takes the current totals on Wikipedia of:

8,663,270 million worldwide infected
468,012 thousand worldwide dead

We know both these figures are underestimated. I'll be really generous and speculate that:

200 million people have been infected (it is nowhere near that high probably closer to 100 million but I'll use the larger number)

700 thousand have or will die from that number (worth noting that a lot of countries are under reporting)

That would make a death rate of 0.38%.

That is three times the death rate of the annual flu. Doesn't sound like much but I have over estimated the infection rate deliberately so the death rate is probably closer to 0.5 to 0.6 or higher.

Also, what are the long term effects of catching the virus? Some small studies have already indicated that half of asymptomatic patients have lung damage from contracting the virus. Is this long term or short term? There are indications that the virus lays dormant in some people only to reemerge a couple of months later.

Some people with more severe cases of COVID-19 are suffering organ damage. I could go on and on and on.

A primarily respiratory illness for most but with cardiovascular, neurological or other ramifications for others = weird new disease in its infancy that little more is known now than 5 months ago.

[mlrg]

The most prestigious university in my country anonymously polled 200 journalists from around the country last week. 92%(!!) admitted to have twisted the news and articles to increase fear on the population during the first weeks of the lockdown (we were in complete lockdown for 9 weeks, beginning March 13th). At the same time the government approved a 15M€ aid program to local newspapers and media channels to help them trough the pandemic.

The big news yesterday was that unfortunately the first medical worker died from the virus in the country. Big news. Well, I happen to knew him personally. He was 68 years old, was in fact infected, was at the hospital in intensive care for 5 weeks but had tested negative two weeks ago. He died from an infection generated from an hospital bacteria. We had 3600 medical workers infected with the virus in my country and 1 (wrongly) dead. That’s a 0,027% death rate.

Do we need to take care: yes
Has this thing been completely exaggerated: without a question

[Sonic Youth]

After watching the riots and protests going on, I'm changing my prediction to one million dead. And the sky's the limit.

When I wrote that, I just threw a number out there, not giving it any real consideration. But what was not exaggerated was my anxiety that this was going to cause an uncontrollable surge. Well, although it may be a little early to say for sure, it looks like a surge from the protests is not happening. Just like the surge from the Wisconsin primary voters didn't happen; nor did the surge from the beaches or the Ozark swimming pool happen; nor did the surge from the earlier pro-reopening protests happen. OTOH, some of the most prolific super-spreaders come from congregational religious groups, cruise ships and other crowded indoor gatherings. And we're seeing a jump of cases in states that reopened too soon. The conclusion seems pretty self-evident: do all your shit outside.

We may not see a million dead, but we currently have 121,000 and summer hasn't even started yet. We'll probably see a quarter of a million by Election Day. I saw in the news that in Arizona, 20 percent of COVID-19 tests came back positive. 20 percent! And now we have tomorrow's Tulsa rally with a president who flouts all guidelines and encourages others to not wear a mask, and the cycle starts all over again.

I got a call a couple of days ago from a relative I hadn't spoken to in over a year. As we were catching up, we eventually got around to the coronavirus, discussed our thoughts on it and how it's affected a few people we knew. My daughter overheard the conversation. She now refuses to step outside the house. We live in the northeast, where things have improved so much I'm not bothered by people not wearing masks outdoors. (Indoors is another story.) Last week, she played with a friend and used playground equipment for the first time in a very long time. Now she's terrified to go out. "I don't want to play. I'm scared of the coronavirus." Meanwhile, the rest of the country has grown indifferent to the likelihood that we're on track to match an ordinary flu's death rate many times over. I'm really at a loss as to what's going on.