The 22nd Annual Who'll Be Back?

[Reza]

Riz Ahmed (one of my bonus round choices just two years back) probably made the biggest gain of the five lead actors -- vaulting to contention for a film that, sans COVID, might have been buried. (Few even realize it played Toronto in 2019, and generated zero awards-heat.) Having admired his work in Nightcrawler, The Night of…, and The Sisters Brothers, I’m confident Ahmed will return...but, it happens nothing on his current schedule strikes me as particularly awards-promising. That will surely change, as production returns to pre-virus levels, and Ahmed cashes in on this newfound prominence. He was on the fringes before this; now, he’s in the game.

Yes he's back as a nominee in 2021. Not with an acting nod but for the Best Live Action Short Film - The Long Goodbye.

[mlrg]

I don't think Frances McDormand is really interested in taking roles in commercial films other than for some financial reason.

Interesting to note that as a talented couple it would be very easy for Joel Coen and his brother to create roles around her or at least cast her as a regular. Aside from Fargo this has not been the case which proves her level of talent and independness. Let's not forget also that she has three leading actress Oscars but she has won 4 Oscars.

There is a very interesting picture on Pedro McDormand Coen's Instagram account (adopted son of Frances and Joel) taken at what it seems to be his parents office in Tribeca. It displays all their Oscars and other film awards such as Baftas, Golden Globes, SAG, Emmys, etc... it's a very impressive awards mantle that I think it has not reached it's full capacity yet.

[OscarGuy]

I don't think McDormand even bothers taking bigger roles. I don't doubt she's gotten the offers, but she may just be happy staying in her indie comfort zone. After all, North Country might well have been attempt to make a big movie (like Norma Rae was in its day), but that didn't work out so well. She did voice over work in The Good Dinosaur, which was a pretty commercial film. Voice in Madagascar 3. She was in Aeon Flux. Something's Gotta Give, Promised Land (which was like North Country in terms of its attempt to reach a broad demographic). I think Madeline was the first film she tried to make that was commercial. Maybe she's just bad at picking commercial projects.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
“She still dwells mostly in character actor realm – all three of her non-winning nominations, and much of the rest of career, has been in supporting roles – so I’d guess further best actress recognition is a long shot.” That’s what this genius wrote about Frances McDormand after her win three years ago. Frances is approaching Meryl Streep territory now: whatever I write about her seems insufficient. I will say it’s remarkable, how she’s carved out this niche for herself while flouting Hollywood’s conventional expectations. You could say Katharine Hepburn did the same, especially in her youthful years, but the best comparison might be Jack Nicholson, who never sucked up to the Hollywood crowd and somehow became the more beloved for it. Whatever Frances decides to do next, keep an Oscar-eye out for her: she’s always under consideration.

I have a question: how big of a figure in American cinema is she? With three Academy Awards under belt, she's clearly headed for the pantheon in some capacity. But how will she be remembered? She's not a chameleon like Daniel Day-Lewis or Meryl Streep in the first two chapters of her career. She's not a movie star like Meryl Streep in the last two decades of her career. She doesn't really open big box office. While she certainly has a well-established brassy persona, America hasn't really embraced it like Meryl Streep who is more outspoken off-screen rather than on-screen. Or maybe Jane Fonda, in that she is now a producer of political cinema to boot, and a trail-blazer in that arena.

This is a little odd but she reminds me the most of Susan Sarandon. Really, how does Frances McDormand have three Academy Awards and Susan Sarandon has one? It seems as though the two of them have swapped careers mid-stream. One was the outspoken activist, the other the indie character actor. And now, Frances McDormand is renown for her kooky, left-wing awards speeches while Susan Sarandon... well, where is she? She shows up in Bad Moms movies and supports Jill Stein in hopes of the revolution coming.

Again, it's difficult to tell because Frances McDormand hasn't quite opened big box office yet. I'm hoping that's about to change. She has three Academy Awards. It's impossible to imagine that someone doesn't write her *SOME* kind of commercial vehicle. Maybe it's taken her three Academy Awards to get to that point. I'm reminded of a quote of hers that's making the rounds: "I was often told that I wasn't a thing. 'She's not pretty enough. She's not tall enough. She's not thin enough. She's not fat enough.' I thought, 'O.K., someday you're going to be looking for someone not, not, not, not, and there I'll be.'" Maybe it's taken us three Academy Awards to see that.

I'm also reminded of the joke Tina Fey made at the Golden Globes that "Meryl Streep so brilliant in August: Osage County proving that there are still great parts for Meryl Streeps over 60." I hope Frances McDormand will be added to that exclusive list.

[OscarGuy]

With a couple of references here, I thought it might be a good time to put forth a Point of Information. Black is now the more appropriate term than African-American. This is now the accepted usage since you cannot always determine the subject's origin. Also, the word Black is now capitalized when referring to an identity rather than a generic color, so it's black crepe paper and Black Americans. I know no one here uses the African-American term with any malice, I just wanted to make mention of it since most of us have some interest in the evolution of language.

[FilmFan720]

Another great wrap-up Tee!

My first thought was Colman Domingo, who is more and more on the rise and who I loved in Ma Rainey. He also was something of a hit on the red carpet and hosted the Oscar after-party. It seems he wants to play the game to some extent, and I think he could be a contender soon.

My pick for the bonus round, though, would be Tahar Rahim. The Mauritanian didn't become the cross-over hit I thought it might become but he is phenomenal in that. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get another shot soon (maybe in a key supporting role) and will be a nominee sooner rather than later.

[Reza]

Denzel Washington plans on bringing to the screen all 10 of August Wilson's Century Cycle plays. Two have already been made and the next one planned is The Piano Lesson with Samuel L. Jackson and John David Washington. These films will provide a good showcase for African-American actors and we will most probably see the likes of Viola Davis, LaKeith Stanfield and others benefit and find themselves on future Oscar lists.

After the success of Another Round at the Oscars this year the one to benefit from it will be Mads Mikkelsen. He's been a popular star in both international and Hollywood films in the past. It's fairly certain that he is now on the cusp of an Oscar nod and will get one in the next year or two.

Also Delroy Lindo got a lot of traction during the year for his performance in Da 5 Bloods and there was much hue and cry over his snub at the Oscars. Watch him get a nomination pretty soon now.

[Big Magilla]

All the acting nominees stand a good chance of being nominated again. Yuh-jung Youn could bring her welcome sass to an English language film next.

I haven't delved much into what's ahead for the remainder of the year, but I do know that Frances McDormand is up next as Lady MacBeth to Denzel Washington's MacBeth in Joel Coen's The Tragedy of MacBeth produced by Scott Rudin, so it will be interesting to see if she comes back quickly for that.

Anthony Hopkins has a number of projects in the works but none of them look to be of awards caliber.

Carey Mulligan could be back in 2022 with Maestro but I Bradley Cooper in the interim has the Nightmare Alley remake from Guillermo del Toro, so I doubt that he will want to compete against himself with Maestro which hasn't even been filmed yet.

I still won't believe Sunset Boulevard will be made until the cameras start churning, and even then, there's no guarantee the film will be finished. Close, though, could yet win that elusive Oscar for something else, though likely in in support at this point.

Jesse Plemons is already getting Oscar buzz for Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog so, yes, he could be the one to watch. My one to watch, though, is Oscar Isaac, who was in this year's Oscar nominated short, The Letter Room. Close to nominations before for Inside Llewyn Davis and Ex Machina, he could finally be looking at a nod for Paul Schrader's The Card Counter.

[HarryGoldfarb]

Chloé Zhao is now doing a Marvel movie, to which I say 1) good for her making some dough and 2) exactly what, in either The Rider or Nomadland, makes one think she’d be right for an effects-laden extravaganza? You never know for sure, but this smells trainwreck to me. Zhao is far more interesting for what she does AFTER that…but that’s a bit down the track. I still think she was lucky, to have competed against such a barren field, and I question if her gifts are likely to make her anything like a perennial Oscar hopeful. But she’s the golden girl for now, so she’s going to get her shot.

After Eternals, Zhao is going to direct a new adaptation of Dracula. She will serve as writer, producer and director of a new take on the character in the vein of a futuristic sci-fi western.

Yeah, you read it right: a futuristic sci-fi western.

Apparently, she is going to explore the implications of immortality.

https://variety.com/2021/film/news/chlo ... 234900898/

[Mister Tee]

Might as well warn you at the top: this recap will likely be more listless than usual. I just never considered the year quite real. The COVID-limited release schedule meant a slate of second-tier films (and, I suspect, more one-off performers than typical); and then, the show (despite some jolting surprises) was a fiasco. After all that, how much excitement can I rev up, contemplating future Oscar prospects for Paul Raci or Vanessa Kirby? There just really isn’t that much to say. Nevertheless…for the 22nd (!) time, a survey of the field:

Riz Ahmed (one of my bonus round choices just two years back) probably made the biggest gain of the five lead actors -- vaulting to contention for a film that, sans COVID, might have been buried. (Few even realize it played Toronto in 2019, and generated zero awards-heat.) Having admired his work in Nightcrawler, The Night of…, and The Sisters Brothers, I’m confident Ahmed will return...but, it happens nothing on his current schedule strikes me as particularly awards-promising. That will surely change, as production returns to pre-virus levels, and Ahmed cashes in on this newfound prominence. He was on the fringes before this; now, he’s in the game.

Gary Oldman spent a quarter-century doing impressive work that got him zero AMPAS recognition. Now, over the course of a single decade, he’s racked up 3 nominations and a win. He’s young by Hopkins standards – a mere 63 – so he has lots of time to score more…though his tendency to overload on commercial junk might prevent him from reaching truly big numbers.

Had I not seen Burning, I’d probably be less-than-sanguine about Steven Yeun’s prospects. But knowing that he’s capable of more than he showed in Minari, I’m glad he’s gained this visibility, and hope it will lead to expanded opportunities. Next up for him is the film version of The Humans, which is promising enough – though his role isn’t one of the play’s standouts.

Since it’s self-evident Chadwick Boseman won’t be back, let me take this space to address claims that have arisen since his not-fully-expected loss. I’ve heard complaints he wasn’t treated as well as Heath Ledger, who of course won on his posthumous nomination. Big differences, though: Ledger had that major previous nod for Brokeback Mountain (which won him the NY Critics’ prize); and his winning role was in a huge smash hit…not a boutique film that couldn’t make an expanded best picture slate. On the other end, I’ve heard some argue that, had he not died, Boseman wouldn’t have even been a nominee, and I think that’s pushing it. This was a breakthrough dramatic role for a guy coming off a worldwide blockbuster. Maybe he wouldn’t have cracked a legendary slate (like 2019), but in a year like this, he was a sure contender. He probably, though, wouldn’t have been in conversation for the win – young handsome actors generally have to wait a while for validation (as in Pitt, DiCaprio – or Cruise, who never won). But a we-take-you-seriously-now nomination? That was absolutely happening.

If this is the twilight of Anthony Hopkins’ career, he’s made the most of it. After decades where it seemed his best was well behind him, he rebounds for one of the great roles of his life, and gets the signal honor of a second best actor prize. It’s hard to think there’ll be anything beyond that – certainly not another win – but who needs more?

For a long time, it had seemed Carey Mulligan would never make it back to the Oscars – whether from failed Oscar bait (Suffragette, Never Let Me Go) or great work ignored (Shame) – but here she was again, front and center. You could argue she gained as much from this year’s race as anyone: when you’re thought to have been in range for a win, voters look at you differently; your work, for a while at least, is scanned more closely for potential Oscar value. She’s one of few from this year’s list who has a big project already in sight: Bradley Cooper’s Bernstein biography, Maestro. Much will depend on Mulligan finding comparable projects in the years ahead -- the high visibility of Promising Young Woman presumably helping on that score – but she’s someone I can see being a winner in the upcoming decade.

It’s weird Viola Davis is so much more popular with SAG than with AMPAS – two failures to carry over a SAG best actress win inside a decade defies history. But that’s about the only bad news for her. She’s ascended to heights no African-American actress has before now, and, though I don’t see the project on her current slate to make it happen, I assume she’ll find a role over the next 5-10 years that’ll bring her a lead actress trophy to go with her supporting prize. It seems all but inevitable.

Vanessa Kirby, already familiar to American audiences from The Crown, didn’t get much further exposure from this nomination – her film was the least-seen of the best actress contenders, and of course there was no award-schmoozing season for her to capitalize. She’s a good actress, but I have absolutely no idea if she has an Oscar future.

Primarily a singer, plays Billie Holiday in a mediocre biopic, scores a personal triumph that leads to a competitive Oscar nomination – yes, that describes Diana Ross as well as Andra Day. Ross’ subsequent film career basically amounted to two movies (Mahogany and The Wiz) before she retreated to the safety of her day job. Offhand, I’d say Andra Day’s acting chops seem more impressive, but that doesn’t mean she’ll have any more success – or even that she’ll give the thespian thing much effort. A total toss-up whether she returns.

“She still dwells mostly in character actor realm – all three of her non-winning nominations, and much of the rest of career, has been in supporting roles – so I’d guess further best actress recognition is a long shot.” That’s what this genius wrote about Frances McDormand after her win three years ago. Frances is approaching Meryl Streep territory now: whatever I write about her seems insufficient. I will say it’s remarkable, how she’s carved out this niche for herself while flouting Hollywood’s conventional expectations. You could say Katharine Hepburn did the same, especially in her youthful years, but the best comparison might be Jack Nicholson, who never sucked up to the Hollywood crowd and somehow became the more beloved for it. Whatever Frances decides to do next, keep an Oscar-eye out for her: she’s always under consideration.

I’ve had my eye on surprise nominee LaKeith Stanfield for some time – since Sorry to Bother You, for sure – and that may be partly why I see him having the strongest chance of return among the supporting actor nominees. His range, covering Get Out to Knives Out, was pretty impressive before this, and Judas offered him the plum role of his career to date. I see much more ahead…starting with The Harder They Fall, a Western whose stellar castmates include Delroy Lindo, Regina King and Idris Elba. I expect Stanfield back on the Oscar rolls before long.

I was doubly introduced to Leslie Odom Jr. this year -- not only seeing his Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami, but also, thanks to a loaner Disney+, belatedly catching up with his Hamilton work. He’s a good actor who can sing/good singer who can act, and that suggests a solid career ahead – though who knows if that means an Oscar-studded one. With all the gains achieved by people like Viola, African-American performers still have slimmer pickings. Odom’s current schedule includes a Sopranos prequel and a time travel movie, neither of which sound especially Oscar-friendly – but who knows what AMPAS is going to go for, these days?

Nominations for two movies in one year notwithstanding, it’s hard for me to think of Sacha Baron Cohen as having a serious enough career to become an AMPAS regular. When your most prominent upcoming project is Mandrake the Magician, you’re not exactly driving toward an Oscar. My guess is his awards profile remains spotty, and I’d bet against his ever getting another acting nomination.

In case you haven’t done the deeper research: Paul Raci is not himself deaf (though he has deaf parents). He’s, in fact, a journeyman actor (who’s crossed paths with some friends of mine, over the years). This was a gift of a role for someone of his age and position, and, while it might lead to more steady work in the years just upcoming, I wouldn’t expect him to make a return trip to the Oscars.

I was glad to see that my comments on Daniel Kaluuya, after his 2017 nomination, were fairly sanguine; I’d only be more enthusiastic now. Judas and the Black Messiah proved he’s a charismatic performer, and there will certainly be a market for that. Of course, roles like Fred Hampton don’t come along that often, and winning so early in one’s career can close off awards prospects for a while. But I like his chances of accumulating additional nominations.

What’s left to say about Glenn Close? This was a pointless/hopeless nomination (especially once J.D. Vance started shooting his mouth off on Twitter), but it reminded everyone once again that Close 1) is a legend, 2) is still spry at her advanced age, and 3) dammit, hasn’t won an Oscar yet. A lot of people seem to be banking their hopes on the Sunset Boulevard movie, about which I have great doubt. But I’m certainly rooting for her to find a worthy vehicle to finally carry her to the winner’s circle -- something she so clearly desires.

Olivia Colman is still what she was when I commented on her after her 2018 upset – a middle-aged character actress whose work will largely be in British TV and films. She’s also, though, both a joy and a great actress, and those things have brought her back to the Oscars far more quickly than I’d expected (while earning her TV honors for the Crown in-between). She’s far past being the cult figure she was two years ago. Sam Mendes has her aboard for his upcoming Empire of Light; if she starts working with directors of that stature -- and it’s not hard to imagine them clamoring to get her into their films – she may have a way more impressive Oscar career than I initially imagined.

Amanda Seyfried has quietly had a fairly impressive career post-Mean Girls – the running role on Big Love, a series of mostly solid-earning films. We’ve tended not to notice this, because, except for Les Miz and First Reformed, none have strayed near Oscar territory. This Mank breakthrough can move her up to another level, if she can find the right roles. She’s still relatively young, and obviously talented. I rate her more likely than not to return to the Oscar lists, at least as nominee.

Maria Bakalova: a) was a fluke nominee who will disappear as quickly as she rose to prominence; b) is a delightful discovery whose comic talents will liven movies for years to come. If you know which of those is closer to reality, your prophetic abilities far surpass mine.

Yuh-jung Youn is, according to IMDB, a legendary Korean actress, with a career spanning five decades. I didn’t know this; I’m guessing most of the rest of you didn’t, either, the U.S. being as provincial as it is about international film. Korean films have, of course, made an extraordinary breakthrough in the past few years – Burning, Parasite and now Minari are, along with Oldboy and The Handmaiden, as widely seen by Americans as any Korean films in history. It’s possible this trend will continue, and Youn will find other roles to match this and make her way back to the Oscar stage. On the other hand, she’s in her mid-70s, and nominated foreign-language performances remain a rarity. So, the bet is, this was a one-off – but it’ll be interesting to watch if the international gains of the past few years could change that calculus.

A few among this year’s anonymous ballot voters said they were voting for David Fincher in recognition of his career achievements. These weren’t enough to make the slightest dent in Chloe Zhao’s runaway, but that there were any interested me -- I’ve always heard that antipathy to Fincher played some role in The Social Network’s downward spiral in the 2010 race. This isn’t to suggest that Fincher is ever going to be Scorsese – the guy who finally won because people flat wanted him to win at some point. But, should he come up with a film that approximates best picture territory – as Social Network did – I think he’ll have an easier time getting the points to triumph. His upcoming schedule has nothing that jumps out as meeting that standard, but he’s an intelligent, hugely-talented craftsman – a plus in directing races, these days – and he’s still young enough that I don’t think we should assume he’ll go a lifetime without victory.

Emerald Fennell made, for me, the exciting debut film of the year, and I’m fascinated to see where she’ll go next (assuming she concentrates on writing/directing over a perfectly solid acting career). But, in Oscar terms, her screenplay win puts her in a cul-de-sac: as I’ve noted here multiple times, over the past 30 years, directors who’ve been consolation-prized with screenplay wins have tended never to return to compete under directing – only Tarantino, Alexander Payne and the Coens have received subsequent nominations (with the latter the only ones to win). But, of course, we write history in the present tense, so maybe Fennell will be one to challenge those odds.

I can’t believe the first Thomas Vinterberg movie I saw – The Celebration – was almost a quarter-century ago. I really liked that one, but haven’t kept up with his career very closely (apart from The Hunt, for which I didn’t care). Particularly since he won the international film prize, I’m inclined to think this was a 2020-ish one-off.

Ditto Lee Isaac Chung, but that may be my personal antipathy toward Minari talking. I don’t really have anything else to go on, as I’ve never seen any of his other work. His next-upcoming film is a live-action/Americanized remake of the animated Your Name, which is…something.

Chloé Zhao is now doing a Marvel movie, to which I say 1) good for her making some dough and 2) exactly what, in either The Rider or Nomadland, makes one think she’d be right for an effects-laden extravaganza? You never know for sure, but this smells trainwreck to me. Zhao is far more interesting for what she does AFTER that…but that’s a bit down the track. I still think she was lucky, to have competed against such a barren field, and I question if her gifts are likely to make her anything like a perennial Oscar hopeful. But she’s the golden girl for now, so she’s going to get her shot.

It’s been recent tradition for me to pick an overdue below-the-line craftsperson and advocate for them to win soon…but I can’t really find anyone who jumps out this year (neither Diane Warren nor James Newton Howard excite me much). So, I’m going to pass, this year. Feel free to tell me who I’ve missed.

Among directors who didn’t make the AMPAS cut this year – Regina King, Darius Marder, Florian Zeller – I’d probably opt for Zeller as the most promising. But if you asked me which director’s next film I’d sign up for first, it would definitely be Quo Vadis, Aida?’s Jasmila Zbanic.

Acting bonus round 1: pick a person who wasn’t in the Oscar discussion, but who you think will turn up with a nomination sometime before long. Partly from Emma., but way more from the extraordinary heat generated by The Queen’s Gambit, I think it’s going to be hard to keep Anya Taylor-Joy from making the list.

As for the original bonus round – pick a person who contended for a nomination, fell short, but should turn up again soon – it’s not an easy choice. Many of our not-quite’s already have nominations under their belts (Pfeiffer, Pike, Foster, Burstyn). Kingsley Ben-Adir, Glynn Turman and Colman Domingo all did fine work this year, but I’m not confident of them getting comparably showy roles in the future. Had he not made his surprise appearance, I’d probably be picking Lakeith Stanfield here. But I’ll stick to that same film, and highlight Jesse Plemons. This guy has appeared in an extraordinary range of interesting films/TV over the past decade – Breaking Bad, The Master, Fargo, Vice, The Irishman, I’m Thinking of Ending Things: is there an auteur who hasn’t brought him on board? The double category-fraud of Kaluuya/Stanfield boxed him out this year, but I have confidence he’ll score very soon. Next up: Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon.

And that, such as it is, wraps up 2020 -- the year we’d all like to forget, and from which we hope we’ve already begun to move on.