The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Mister Tee »

danfrank wrote:
Okri wrote: I’m not sure what the response to Transit was on the board, but I thought it was one of the year’s best.
I thought it was pretty terrific. The unclear time period of the film suggested the timelessness of its themes: the ever-present threat of fascism and the plight of immigrants and refugees. The atmospherics were great: each shot beautifully framed, the combo of the script and editing made me feel as if I were in “transit” with the main character. The lead actor, Franz Rogowski, was mesmerizing. Petzold is clearly a talent, though this type of film seems some distance outside Oscar territory.
I want to thank you guys for pointing me to Transit. Somehow I missed the film entirely when it passed through, despite having seen and liked Phoenix. (I do note it was significantly less successful commercially.)

It was a strong story, with much resonance on the subject of identity (apparently a theme Petzold prizes, based on this and Phoenix). I kept thinking I had the narrative figured out, but it kept surprising me with the directions it went. I see it's based on a novel from the actual WWII period, so it was Petzold's contribution to put it in this chronologically hazy/we-are-always-fighting-fascism frame. I actually hadn't noted the anachronisms early on (I'm not much of a car-make aficionado), and was a bit startled by the first out-there mention (zombies at the mall); from there, I relaxed into the out-of-time gestalt, which set up the final moments very well. If I have one quibble, it's the use of the sometimes-accurate, sometimes-not voice-over -- I didn't think the character ultimately revealed as narrator added much, nor was there enough payoff around the device to offset the intrusiveness of it. YMMV.

Definitely an interesting director, for his facility with fairly standard (often gripping) plots, and his ability to put an unusual spin on them.
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by danfrank »

Okri wrote: I’m not sure what the response to Transit was on the board, but I thought it was one of the year’s best.
I thought it was pretty terrific. The unclear time period of the film suggested the timelessness of its themes: the ever-present threat of fascism and the plight of immigrants and refugees. The atmospherics were great: each shot beautifully framed, the combo of the script and editing made me feel as if I were in “transit” with the main character. The lead actor, Franz Rogowski, was mesmerizing. Petzold is clearly a talent, though this type of film seems some distance outside Oscar territory.
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Okri »

A scattering of thoughts

We’ve spoken of the “internationalizing” of the Oscars this decade and it’s be undeniably striking. But, as Oscarguy saliently pointed out before, we’ve seen this before. The 60’s and 70’s had foreign-language-film directors nominated eight times each, whereas the 2010s had only 5 (and that’s including The Artist). But, if you twist it and look at it from a different angle, you’d see several more directors who first got recognized in the foreign language film category (Innaritu, del Toro, Villeneuve, Lanthimos… even Ang Lee, if we want to decontextualize it) and who haven’t left foreign language filmmaking. AMPAS is obviously taking great pains to invite a deeper, broader bench of artists as well. And we’ve got distributors in A24, Netflix, and Neon that are clearly willing to push foreign language films hard. So, if you were to predict, which foreign language auteur would you next imagine making the best director list?

For me, there are two directors who come to mind. The first is Asghar Farhadi. While his most recent film seemed to sink without getting much enthusiasm, he’s still a commodity at the arthouse box office (his last four films all surpassed 1 million, which in the age of Parasite doesn’t seem like a lot but it is for non-English language films). He’s not particularly esoteric and you can imagine him making something that hits that Cannes sweet spot and then just powers on from there. The downside? Sony Pictures Classics isn’t a strong campaigner unless they REALLY set their mind to it (a la Huppert in 2016). The other: Christian Petzold. I’m not sure what the response to Transit was on the board, but I thought it was one of the year’s best. And it seemed to have a surprisingly strong profile come the top ten season, despite being an early year/festival hangover release. Like Farhadi, he’s not esoteric. He’s interested in classical subjects (World War II, namely) that he’ll reconfigure to be topical if needed.

Now, in terms of English language filmmakers who look like they’ll be invited to the big show within a few films, I’ve gotta assume Rian Johnson is near the head of the pack. It basically seems that if someone gets an original idea that does well commercially, they will get a chance to visit the big show sooner or later. The thing working against him is that he tends to work in genre, which means he’s got a higher hurdle to clear (that Looper couldn’t get nominated against Flight in 2012 is what comes to mind). I also presume that Marielle Heller is inching her way forward.
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

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There was more outright hostility against the Academy for them ignoring Jennifer Lopez than Adam Sandler. Maybe because it was a stacked slate and they expected people had to be left off (hello, anti-vaxxer Robert De Niro). Then again, I heard more grumbling about the fate of The Farewell and Awkwafina/Zhao Shuzhen than about Sandler.

I don't recall who you have picked previously, Tee, so I couldn't remember, but I did propose a number of young new black artists who have emerged since those previous predictions and they weren't cited. I think it's just more difficult for people who are older to think to the new generation of minority actors. Elba and Jordan would be very obvious choices, but some of those others earned quite a lot of praise this year, so I don't konw.
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

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OscarGuy wrote:Tee, two directors in the mix this year that have surprisingly not yet been nominated, but who could, with the right project, finally make the cut: Noah Baumbach and James Mangold.
Well, when I posted about Marriage Story, I specifically argued that Baumbach had deficiencies as a director (not as writer), so it'd be hard for me to advocate for him as future directing nominee. And he's already shown here he can get onto the best picture slate.

As for Mangold -- he's had a quarter-century to fulfill the promise of Heavy, one of the few true American art films of this era, and I see no evidence he'll ever get back there. His subsequent career has, at best, demonstrated a journeyman's competence. The maximum I think he can hope for is what he got this year: a successful commercial effort that slips onto the best picture ballot but is ignored by the directors.
OscarGuy wrote:Actors in the conversation, but fell (very) short who should expect a first nomination at some point in the near future: Michael B. Jordan.
...
We should really try thinking outside the White Box a bit more on these.
...
You could also say that Idris Elba, who was considered robbed just a few years ago, could be the next Oscar breakthrough.
Michael B. Jordan was, in fact, my primary bonus-round choice last year, and Idris Elba was that choice in 2015. I don't expect you folks to remember these things year to year, but I hold myself to a somewhat rigorous consistency. In any case, I don't think I can be accused of not straying outside a White Box.

As for the Adam Sandler debate: I have to place myself on the Oscar Guy side of the argument. Ever since seeing Sandler on SNL back in the 80s, I've considered him anti-funny. He's total nails-on-chalkboard for me; short clips of his movies were enough to persuade me to avoid them like the plague, and if I'm more tolerant of his "serious" movies -- and I do like The Meyerowitz Stories, and found Uncut Gems at least interesting -- it's in spite of him, not because of him.

So, it's hard for me to conceive of his being beloved (other than by studio execs who cash big checks thanks to his moronic comedies). This may well be generational -- people who grew up on him may have an affection I simply don't have.

(And don't assume this is particular to me. I remember a colloquium a decade or two back where Albert Brooks and Rob Schneider spoke about his movies, Brooks loathing them. When Schneider tried to argue "lots of people like them, they must be good", Brooks' counter was "Then cancer must be good; so many people have it." Not the sort of thing you'd hear said about someone beloved.)

However...as I say, maybe it's generational. He got a big round of applause at the Spirits, and, eventually, people from that younger age cohort will replace graying farts like me and Albert Brooks. But not, I think, for a while: despite a big critics' push, Sandler and his film got nothing from AMPAS, and I didn't hear much lament over that fact.
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

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Did Joe Pesci ever actually formally announce that he was retiring? I think he only just stopped working after The Good Shepherd (2006) though oddly starred alongside Helen Mirren in that awful Taylor Hackford film Love Ranch (2010).

I don't think Gene Hackman, Jack Nicholson and a number of others have never officially said that they have retired though I believe Alexander Payne tried to pursue Gene Hackman to accept the role that Bruce Dern played in Nebraska.

There are a number of actors (and directors) who have announced their retirements in the past only to keep on working including one of the 19 thespians nominated this year by the Academy.
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

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I didn't say that Sandler was guaranteed to be a nominee soon, but that he had a good chance. Yes, Jim Carrey never did -- but Robin Williams and Eddie Murphy and Melissa McCarthy and Dan Aykroyd and Bill Murray and Steve Carrel and Jamie Foxx and Jonah Hill and many others have gone from being comedians to the Oscar stage.

One thing that Sandler has that a lot of others (including Carrey) is how much he is liked in Hollywood. People are rooting for him and, by all accounts, he is considered one of the nicest people in Hollywood. As we all know, the Academy will overlook a lot for a person they are rooting for personally. I think Sandler certainly fits that bill.

He also doesn't seem to be chasing it. Jim Carrey was a difficult person who started making Oscar-baity films that people grew weary of very quickly. I don't think Sandler needs to make another Cobbler to get his Oscar nomination. But I bet you that if he made The Meyerowitz Stories next year, he would be deep in the conversation. Or if he finds his own Good Morning, Vietnam.
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

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You should ask Jim Carrey how it feels to be an Oscar nominee...oh wait. The problem with Sandler is that he's had two "cusp" films from serious directors (Paul Thomas Anderson and now the Safdie Brothers) that were supposed to be potential Oscar vehicles that didn't turn out. Like Carrey, Sandler is more interested in comedies than dramas and if he goes the route Carrey did, he'll continue to make cusp films that result in nothing. After all, The Truman Show led to Man on the Moon to The Majestic to Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind and then back to primarily comedy with no Oscar hopes on the horizon. Eddie Murphy, Dan Aykroyd, and Melissa McCarthy transitioned from SNL to serious films and managed to secure Oscar nominations, but that's the limit that I can currently think of among former SNL stars (Carrey was not SNL, but in a similar vein).
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

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Lovely post, as always.

For the bonus rounds:

1. Marielle Heller seems ripe to move into the awards game at some point...I think she just needs a movie that picks up a little more traction outside of writing/acting categories. I also think that Rian Johnson just keeps soaring. You have to imagine that if people had been talking about Knives Out as a serious contender before it opened, rather than just a wonderfully made genre picture, it might have crossed a line into more than just writing. His next film will probably have Oscar contender buzz sight unseen and if it is good could be a strong contender for getting him a director nod.

2. Thomas Newman seems the obvious answer (AGAIN).

3. Merritt Wever had a great year, between Marriage Story and Unbelievable, and seems on the cusp to start getting film roles that equal what she has been doing on TV for a while. If she gets in the right projects she could be a strong contender soon. Also, if he starts making things a LITTLE more awards-friendly, Robert Pattinson is still holding out for that first nomination.

4. Tee, I think you underestimate Adam Sandler a little bit here. He is so beloved around Hollywood, and has been quietly building up a serious acting resume alongside his comedy resume, that the right project will easily put him in the conversation. If this year hadn't been quite so competitive, or if Uncut Gems were a tad more accessible, he might have squeaked out this nomination -- you also wonder if he wasn't the biggest loser in a shortened season. Uncut Gems picked up a lot of speed around Christmastime -- non-cinephile relatives kept asking me about it -- and if he had another few weeks he may have gotten into that room. Needless to say, people will now start taking his more serious roles more seriously, and if he were to get into a film with a little more awards pedigree -- say, another Noah Baumbach film -- he could be a nominee.

Based on her BAFTA nomination, you also have to put Jessie Buckley into this year's awards conversation, and she certainly seems like someone on the rise. She had a BAFTA nod for Wild Rose, held her own opposite this year's Best Actress winner, and appeared in Chernobyl, maybe the highest rated TV of the year. If she keeps getting into material like that and shining (she will be in the new season of Fargo this year), she will become an awards regular.
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

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anonymous1980 wrote: It seems to me, a significant amount of the criticism against the film was that it wasn't trying to be Come and See or The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas. A lot of the anti-Jojo Rabbit contingent are penalizing the film for what it WASN'T trying to do rather than rating it for what it was actually trying to do which, I think, is very unfair to the film.
That is definitely not why I disliked it so strongly, although I'm not going to litigate Jojo Rabbit in this thread. I'll take it to another thread if you'd like.

------------
I'll admit to being fascinated by Margot Robbie, especially her two performances this year. I think they're kind of opposites of each other in a way: In Hollywood, I think she's used well but not really given very much to do--it's really much more about her look and the way she embodies the lost possibilities that Sharon Tate represents than it is about Robbie's acting or anything that Tarantino has her do. In Bombshell, she gets a lot to do, and I think she does it pretty well (the phone call clip they played in the Oscar montage was impressive, maybe more impressive when viewed outside of the film than it is in the film), but the movie never serves her--or any character if we're being honest--very well at all. When she gets a movie that combines the best of what Hollywood and Bombshell both give her, I think she could probably run away with it. I don't think the disappointment of Birds of Prey will hurt her too much, because the movie still got decent reviews, and beyond that I don't think its disappointment will be placed on her shoulders.

My pick of the non-contenders is Taylor Russell: She was excellent in Waves, and if the movie had maintained even a fraction of the buzz it generated when it premiered at Telluride, I think she would've had a great a shot this year. You could make a strong case for Kelvin Harrison Jr. from the same film as well (who also had the added credit of Luce, which I still haven't seen), although short-term I would be more optimistic about Russell's chances, mainly because the Academy tends to be friendlier to young actresses than young actors.

I agree with Oscar Guy that Mangold seems like the type of director who eventually gets nominated. He's made a lot of Oscar-contending movies, and has even got nominated as a screenwriter in the past and as a producer this year, so I definitely think that with the right project he could graduate to a Best Director nomination. The right project doesn't always come along (see Edward Zwick) but he's a good mainstream option. I feel like Baumbach may almost always be fated to miss director when his films are major Oscar players because they're (maybe unfairly) seen as being talky and not visual, but you never know. As far as other possible contenders, it's tough because a lot of this year's Oscar players were from filmmakers who were either nominated this year or have been in the past. I would love to say someone like James Gray, who finally saw one of his films get a (hopeless) nomination this year, but the fact is he's been working for 25 years, hasn't made many movies, has always got good reviews, and there's a single Oscar nomination to show for it. It never contended in categories like Cinematography or Production Design, it got left off of the shortlist in Visual Effects, its score was declared ineligible for some reason or another. I know some of it may come from Fox not really promoting the film like they could have, but as much as I am a fan of him, I don't see him drifting into Oscar territory except by some fluke. And then if you broaden it out to the Spirit Awards, which were not as Oscar-adjacent as usual, I don't see a ton of contenders there: I don't see the Safdie brothers modifying their signature style in a way that would make it Oscar-friendly. Some have suggested Loren Scafaria as a major filmmaker, but I'm not sold based on the two films I've seen. Still others have suggested Alma Ha'rel, Joe Talbot, or Olivia Wilde as possible big players in the years ahead, but I'm not going to suggest anyone as a future Oscar contender based on one film. I may have broken the rules on the "future Oscar contender" part of this game years ago, but I'm not going to break it here! I'm not suggesting him as a nominee in the near future, but I will definitely be keeping an eye on Trey Edward Shults in the years ahead. Anyone who shows the level of ambition he showed in Waves has the potential for a major career; there's also potential for a major disaster, because a swing for the fences the way Waves was could turn into a giant swing-and-a-miss.
Last edited by dws1982 on Mon Feb 17, 2020 3:00 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

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Tee, two directors in the mix this year that have surprisingly not yet been nominated, but who could, with the right project, finally make the cut: Noah Baumbach and James Mangold.

Below-the-line: Diane Warren who managed to pull off a nomination for one of those dreaded and disposable Christian films. She almost had a win for her "collaboration" with Lady Gaga, but she's getting to the point where everyone knows her name and the right song will finally do it for her.

Actors in the conversation, but fell (very) short who should expect a first nomination at some point in the near future: Michael B. Jordan.

Actor not in the conversation who is bubbling under for recognition soon: here are a few possibilities: Issa Rae, LaKeith Stanfield, Amandla Stenberg, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Taylor Russell, Sterling K. Brown.

We should really try thinking outside the White Box a bit more on these. I'm not saying it's intentional, but we do need to think in other directions. These actors, either veterans or newcomers, are choosing interesting projects and have the kind of breakthrough potential we used to love about young actors. Rae and Stenberg are probably the weakest on this list, but all of the others have promising careers ahead (Jordan is already well established and was in the conversation for Black Panther) while Stanfield, Harrison Jr. and Brown (not young, but what the heck) have each been turning in acclaimed performances. You could also say that Idris Elba, who was considered robbed just a few years ago, could be the next Oscar breakthrough.
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Re: The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by anonymous1980 »

Great write-up as always, Mister Tee!
Mister Tee wrote:Taika Waititi falls into my private When Bad Oscars Happen to Good People category. I so liked The Hunt for the Wilderpeople, Waititi was a real sleeper favorite for me. And, unlike some, I didn’t even dislike Jojo Rabbit – I think it’s clearly inferior to two of the films it defeated, but I like quite a few things about the film. Now, though, I think Waititi will experience serious backlash. You may say, He won the Oscar, it’s only Internet cranks who are unhappy – but I’ll tell you, the amount of bile spilled against the film is the sort that can damage a filmmaker’s reputation for some time, and Oscar voters won’t be immune.
I personally loved Jojo Rabbit...and it's actually my favorite of Taika Waititi's films. I couldn't quite understand the hatred and bile against it. It seems to me, a significant amount of the criticism against the film was that it wasn't trying to be Come and See or The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas. A lot of the anti-Jojo Rabbit contingent are penalizing the film for what it WASN'T trying to do rather than rating it for what it was actually trying to do which, I think, is very unfair to the film. Besides, I think most people actually like the film. Its detractors are a loud minority.

I personally wouldn't worry for Taika Waititi. He has a lot of upcoming projects lined up. I think the fact Jojo Rabbit DIDN'T win Best Picture and only won an Adapted Screenplay consolation prize is good for that film's reputation down the line. That plus the fact that, as Waititi reminded us in his acceptance speech, is that this is the first Oscar, certainly the first Screenplay Oscar, won by a person of indigenous descent so that also helps quell any unpleasant backlash this film will get.
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The 21st Annual Who'll Be Back?

Post by Mister Tee »

The past week’s Oscars makes this yearly review seem, more than ever, a worthy project. Last Sunday, we watched three veterans ascend the stage – one (Phoenix) for whom it always seemed a matter of time till he joined the pantheon; two others who were long-time solid bets. So, why not look at those who failed to win this time around, and ponder who among them will follow in this year’s winners’ footsteps? My thoughts follow.

As noted in my post-season thread: Adam Driver’s season looked considerably different in the early going (Venice/Toronto) than it did once serious voting got underway and made it definitively Phoenix’s year. I suspect there was a proviso underlaying this shift in fortune: an implicit assurance from voters that, OK, this particular year isn’t going to be yours, but we all know your time is coming; it’s just a matter of when. (In a sense, Driver inherits the crown Phoenix carried into the season.) Apart from those Star Wars movies (which give him high visibility), nearly everything Driver has made over the past half-decade has carried Oscar potential, and there’s no reason to think that will slow down. His just-ahead projects are Annette, a Leos Carax project with Marion Cotillard, and The Last Duel, a star-studded Ridley Scott effort. Whether for one of those or for something further down the road, I fully expect to see Driver holding his statuette sometime in the next half-decade.

The Antonio Banderas profile -- 60-year-old actor for whom English is not a first language; a Hollywood career more commercial than awards-adjacent; first nomination late in life for a Spanish-language effort – pretty much screams “one-timer” (hello, Catherine Deneuve). But I look at his upcoming slate, and think, man, this guy’s striking while the iron is hot: six projects on IMDB, including one playing Ferruccio Lamborghini (which could of course stink, but never under-estimate a bio-pic). There have been actors who’ve scored a first/chanceless nomination late-career, then quickly returned as winner: Rex Harrison, Colin Firth, Christopher Plummer. I wouldn’t bet Banderas to join that group, but I can’t rule it out, either.

Jonathan Pryce, on the other hand… I’m delighted an actor who’s for years glided around the edges of the Oscar race (with films like Brazil, Evita and Carrington) finally managed to make an AMPAS appearance (even if it helped deny a spot to my favorite, DeNiro). But Pryce is in his 70s (older than me, even!), a quiet actor unlikely to pass this way again. I’d be delighted to be wrong, but I think this was a one-off.

Leonardo DiCaprio is the only leading actor I can think of who’s managing to have a 70s-style career these days: eschewing blockbusters, doing one ambitious film after another -- and somehow bringing in serious box-office despite diverging from what seems popular taste. Once in a great while he’ll stumble with a J. Edgar, but who cares, when he carries things like Wolf of Wall Street or The Great Gatsby over $100 million? This serious-plus-popular profile has long been the Academy sweet spot, and, as long as he keeps making such films, the Academy will continue to cite him (for, potentially, a long time: he’s still only 45). Killers of the Flower Moon, another reunion with Scorsese, is next up, and of course we’ll watch for it. I don’t think he’ll be automatically considered for a second win – thanks to The Revenant, he’s currently viewed as taken-care-of – but these things are relative: nominations for another film or two, and he could jump to the front of the overdue line again.

Joaquin Phoenix is about where DiCaprio was four years ago: rewarded at last for a big commercial hit, partly on career points. And everyone assumes he’ll keep doing challenging projects that will bring him back to the Dolby, because he’s just so damn good. He still has a tendency to be his own worst enemy, so we need to watch his choice of projects (and I hope-hope-hope he resists doing Joker 2). But his immediate Oscar follow-up is C’mon C’mon, a Mike Mills effort that certainly provokes interest.

If Joaquin Phoenix’s profile bears comparison to DiCaprio, Saoirse Ronan can be analogized to his Titanic co-star Kate Winslet. At the frighteningly young age of 25, Ronan’s racked up four thoroughly deserved nominations (it took Winslet till age 29). As with Winslet in her earlier days, there’s no single performance that jumps out as “She definitely should’ve won there!” – Ronan’s Lady Bird, like Winslet’s Eternal Sunshine, is an arguable but not undeniable case. At some point, though, the sheer accumulation of credits argues for a win sooner rather than later. Winslet had to wait only four years past her fourth nod – though, even there, it was something of a manufactured consensus in a year without a runaway favorite. We hope Ronan’s inevitable victory is for something of more unquestioned quality. Her next effort is Wes Anderson’s The French Dispatch, and who knows what to expect of her there? (Given Anderson’s casting quirks, she could be on-screen ten minutes.) More intriguing is Ammonite, a British period piece co-starring (fortuitously) Winslet herself, directed by God’s Own Country’s Francis Lee.

Scarlett Johansson, as I’ve discussed in other threads, has more than earned this at-long-last pair of nominations – working with top directors (Coppola, Coens, Allen, Jonze, Anderson) over a long period of time, while maintaining franchise viability through Marvel. The latter, disappointingly, describes her only firmly scheduled release -- Black Widow getting her solo shot this Spring – but it’s hard not to believe she’ll use this newfound industry respect to line up more of the interesting projects she’s long favored. She’s only 35, and has amply shown how much talent she has. I think she’s an Oscar winner of the future…though, unlike with Ronan, I’m uncertain on how soon it’ll happen.

Charlize Theron’s nomination felt as much acknowledgment of an under-appreciated decade (including Young Adult and Tully) as of this particular Bombshell performance. Theron’s active efforts at producing her own material finally paid off for her. Her current roster of projects is sadly franchise-heavy – Atomic Blonde and Fast & Furious sequels – but one assumes her interest in passion projects will soon revive. I can see her accumulating occasional nominations; I don’t see her as the sort to win a second Oscar -- although…

Renee Zellweger teaches us to never say never in that department. Few Oscar winners have disappeared quite as fully as Zellweger did for a while there – at one point, Internet ridicule was the only real sign she was still alive. But she got the last laugh on us all, and for a very unlikely vehicle. (Yes, biopic…but Judy could have easily turned out a total cheeseball -- more of one than it actually is -- and disappeared the way of I Saw the Light or Grace of Monaco.) It’s no real surprise Zellweger doesn’t have much scheduled as follow-up -- who has a plan for post-miracle? And I’m not sure she’s fully back integrated into the Hollywood community – I never saw her shmooze much with the rest of the crowd at ceremonies (possibly because her movie was strictly personal vehicle, while other nominees had friends around co-celebrating?) In any event, I’m not terribly bullish on her ever making it back again…and I’d say her chances at a third win are microscopic. But bravo for her, for doing what few would ever have guessed possible.

I don’t know what to make of Cynthia Erivo. I’m told she was genuinely excellent in The Color Purple, but I saw nothing of much note in Harriet. She’s got an Aretha TV miniseries coming up (not to be confused with the Jennifer Hudson Aretha movie), and two listed film projects, both of which, oddly, seem to be vaguely scifi. (One, though, is a Doug Liman/Charlie Kaufman collaboration, which at least sparks interest.) She’s a 100% wait-and-see for me.

Of the supporting actor crew, Anthony Hopkins -- unexpectedly – seems most likely to quickly return, based on the exceptional response his performance in The Father got at Sundance. A year ago, I’ve have thought we’d never see Hopkins at the Oscars again; now, he’s threatening to become a semi-regular. At 82, you’d expect he’d slow down at some point -- but why would he, when he’s just got things going again?

Speaking of not slowing down – this Tom Hanks guy seems to have it in gear right now, with multiple projects already in the can (including another Paul Greengrass movie), and a full slate beyond. Hanks is fortunate, in a sense, that his star-power was never much based on sex appeal – it’s enabled him to ease into character roles as age starts to catch up with him. I’d argue Hanks is doing some of the best acting of his life recently, and, now that he’s re-broken the Oscar ice, I see no reason why he shouldn’t return to the Dolby occasionally – though maybe most often, like this time around, in support.

Al Pacino is another octogenarian who seems to have no interest in quitting. He appeared in two of the year’s best picture nominees, leading to his first Oscar appearance since his win 28 years ago. He’s kept working all that time; it’s just been in movies nobody’s much wanted to see (his most decent stuff has been on TV). He’s got an intriguing movie called Axis Sally in the immediate future; and, after that, it’s a matter of how deep into his dotage he chooses to keep at it. Even if this was just a last hurrah, it’s well-deserved for an actor who helped define the 1970s.

Brad Pitt spoke in an acceptance speech of riding DiCaprio’s coattails, and, in a way, his strategy has been a slightly less successful version of DiCaprio’s. From early on, he sought out interesting directors (Fincher/Gilliam in the immediate aftermath of his Thelma and Louise breakout), while also establishing himself as leading man with things like Legends of the Fall and A River Runs Through It. His journey has been rockier than Leo’s -- too many Meet Joe Black’s and Seven Years in Tibet’s -- and his forays into pure commerce (like Allied or World War Z) have landed a bit flat. Still, he’s plugged on, producing and/or starring in ambitious projects (The Tree of Life/The Assassination of Jesse James/12 Years a Slave), and, while he doesn’t have DiCaprio’s almost infallible box-office draw, I think he boosts some projects – I’m doubtful many actors could have pushed Ad Astra to $50 million domestic. This combo of ambition and success should bring him back for future nominations. Another win? Tougher to call. With all he’s achieved, Brad still suffers from “he’s pretty, but can he act?” syndrome – I think people respect his career, but don’t put him in Penn/Phoenix/McDormand range in terms of sheer ability. But he should have a long career – he’s already coming up on 30 years in public eye – and I’ll be watching his every step. Next up? Supposedly Damien Chazelle’s Babylon, which of course merits our full attention.

I take Joe Pesci at his word: that he’s retired, and we shouldn’t expect to see him at the Oscars again. (We didn’t actually see him THIS year.) But don’t you imagine there are directors who look and think, You rolled out of retirement and delivered that? Could you unretire for a little while and be in MY movie?

Scarlett was of course already covered in lead actress, but, even pushing her to the side, the supporting actress slate is one about which I feel fairly bullish.

Margot Robbie is making the most of her shot at the big time – two nominations in three years, and a slate full of promising projects. She seems to have fully won over the Hollywood buzz machine – how else to explain the loud push she be nominated for that wisp of a performance in Hollywood? This suggests she’ll be given every chance to capitalize on positive career developments. She’s just suffered her first commercial setback, as the Birds of Prey thing has substantially under-performed. But beautiful blondes with multiple Oscar nominations get a pass or two, and people are already looking ahead to her next effort. Her slate of upcoming projects includes films from David O. Russell and Justin Kurzel (still seen as promising, Assassin’s Creed notwithstanding), plus Greta Gerwig’s Barbie. I’m still uncertain whether she’s a good actress or just a beauty who’s been cast well…but she’s going to have lots to opportunities to test that. We’d all better get used to seeing Robbie at the Oscars for the next while.

For me, Florence Pugh this year was the equivalent of a pop song cracking the top 40 with a bullet. I haven’t seen Midsommar (snookered into too many horror films; if it’s not award-nominated, I don’t bite), and I disliked Lady Macbeth. But Pugh’s Little Women performance alone – taking a character I barely remember from earlier versions and making her so indelible – is enough to put her on my hot prospect list. Her only listed upcoming project is co-starring in Black Widow – might as well grab that first big payday – but I presume she’ll excite the interest of many auteurs. I see her as having a big career, with AMPAS certifying much of it.

I suspect a lot of people here take Kathy Bates for granted (if she crosses their minds at all). Her win was nearly 30 years ago; her last previous nomination several years pre-iPhone. But this is a lady who’s been at it nearly five decades and never stops working – a character actress of the sort for whom supporting categories were created. I wouldn’t put it past her to turn up here again in her approaching-twilight years. Upcoming project: a movie called Home, directed by Run Lola Run’s Franka Potente – which evokes a “well, that’s different, anyway” response from me.

Laura Dern has been an incredibly busy lady of late – 17 feature films as well as a ton of TV work in just this decade – and it’s paid off for her with an Emmy and now this Oscar. It’s hard to say if this represents her culmination, to be followed by retreat, or simply another plateau in an already-lengthy career. Her upcoming slate is limited to a Jurassic sequel, but one expects that will fill out quickly. The only caveat is that she’s now over 50, the age at which actresses have traditionally receded – but 1) she’s a character actress, to whom that may not truly apply and 2) with the McDormand/Zellweger wins, maybe we’re finally moving past that ridiculous shibboleth.

Quentin Tarantino once again left the ceremony without a best director Oscar, and, boy, if the Hollywood crowd truly wanted him to have one, it’s hard to believe they’d have passed up this opportunity. Tarantino’s work has been pretty well-honored by the Academy – now five of his films have won at least one award – but it seems many feel two screenplay trophies is enough for his career (only Woody Allen, Billy Wilder and Paddy Chayefsky, I believe, have more). Quentin keeps threatening to retire, so maybe this was his last shot. If he does continue to work, though, one can assume AMPAS will give his efforts full consideration.

As delighted as I generally was by the outcome of this year’s awards, I do have a modicum of disappointment that Martin Scorsese didn’t get his due for what I view as a masterpiece. Nine directing nominations (second place, all-time) is nice, but one measly award (for a second-tier effort) doesn’t strike me as enough appreciation for a career so illustrious. Scorsese’s in his late-70s now, which is youngish on the Eastwood calendar, but an age at which many directors’ careers have foundered. However: while I live, I hope – so our gaze can turn toward Killers of the Flower Moon, to see if that can put him in the two-Oscar category. (Note: Billy Wilder lost for both his masterpieces Double Indemnity and Some Like It Hot – but, in each case, won best film/director at the next opportunity.)

Todd Phillips was way down on anyone’s “this guy’ll be nominated for an Oscar one day” list, which goes to show big surprises can still happen. To his credit, he doesn’t appear to be positioning himself as director of Joker 2 – his next-listed project is a Hulk Hogan biography, which at least has potential to be interesting. We’ll have to see if this guy’s an Adam McKay, who uses Academy cred to jump from broad comedies to (attempted) seriousness.

It’s probably just as well for Sam Mendes he didn’t take the Oscar in the end. Some have never forgiven him for winning the first time around, and two wins in two tries would have made him an Internet pariah (assuming that matters). Mendes has never treated film directing as a full-time position: he’s only made 9 films in the past 21 years, and has always mixed in a significant amount of stage work. Which is to say, I have no idea if/when he’ll make a film again (he has nothing scheduled), let alone whether he’ll return to the Oscar mix.

I’ve been a fan of Bong Joon Ho for a decade now, and I have no concern he’ll do a Michel Hazanavicius disappearing act. But I do think he has to worry about expectations when he goes back to work. He rather caught lightning in a bottle here – getting unexpectedly rewarded at a level for which many wait decades. A lot of people will view him as coming from nowhere and, if he stumbles a bit next time out -- of which there’s every possibility -- some will be happy to send him back there: “I knew he was overrated” bandwagons can form just as quickly as victory parades. I don’t worry about him in the long run – I’ll always be anxious to see his latest – but I’d be wary of his immediate future.

A few not-nominated but in-the-mix directors worthy of discussion:

As unhappy as I was about Greta Gerwig’s losing last week, there’s an upside: she won’t be viewed as having been pensioned off with a screenwriting prize, and thus will remain in the hunt for the full-on Academy treatment some year hence. It will surprise no one who’s read my reviews to hear I’m extremely bullish on Gerwig’s future; I’m not sure any actor-turned-director short of Eastwood seems as born for the job. Her next announced project is Barbie (with a script by her squeeze); it sounds like a high-risk project, and, as with Bong, I worry about something like a sophomore jinx (which only becomes more likely when following up TWO hits). Plus, you know: she might at some point drift back to her original profession of acting. But I’m very excited to watch where she goes next, and, yes, I think she’ll win an Oscar at some point.

(Tangent: I couldn’t believe this stat till I looked it up, but, discounting the short (1928-29) first decade of the Oscars, only in the 1960s and the just-passed 2010s has there not been at least one female screenwriting winner. That it happened now gets even harder to believe when you find that 1) women showed up in 17 of 100 screenwriting slots this decade (not impressive on its own, but above historic norms) and 2) multiple times -- Gerwig both years, Deborah Davis for The Favourite last year – women have seemed in prime position to win.)

As to the man who defeated Gerwig… Taika Waititi falls into my private When Bad Oscars Happen to Good People category. I so liked The Hunt for the Wilderpeople, Waititi was a real sleeper favorite for me. And, unlike some, I didn’t even dislike Jojo Rabbit – I think it’s clearly inferior to two of the films it defeated, but I like quite a few things about the film. Now, though, I think Waititi will experience serious backlash. You may say, He won the Oscar, it’s only Internet cranks who are unhappy – but I’ll tell you, the amount of bile spilled against the film is the sort that can damage a filmmaker’s reputation for some time, and Oscar voters won’t be immune. (Kevin Costner triumphed with Dances with Wolves, but the notion he’d robbed Scorsese may have played a part in his never returning. And call me the next time a Peter Farrelly movie gets nominated.) If Jojo Rabbit had never happened – or, better, if it had been a minor success that never got near the Oscars – I think Waititi’s future would be brighter.

In fact, he might have been a likely candidate for my first bonus round: the director who’s never been nominated but has been making enough interesting films that I like his/her chances of showing up soon. I’m dubious about him now, though…and, in fact, I can’t make much case for anyone of this year’s crop. I liked The Farewell enough, but I can’t say Lulu Wang’s abilities make me jump to advocate for her future inevitability. Maybe Marielle Heller? – though I’m wondering if her sensibility is a bit too fine to break through with the branch. Anyone have a better suggestion? I’m truly stumped.

I’m running low on candidates for my second bonus round, below-the-line craftsmen/women overdue for wins. But let me propose Rodrigo Prieto as possible future winner. He didn’t remotely compete this year, but his accumulation of career credits marks him very deserving of eventual victory. He’s slated to work on Scorsese’s Killer Moon film; let’s see if that offers him a better chance.

The first part of the original bonus round (the one foisted on me by folks with poor rule-following skills) is an actor who, like the director above, hasn’t yet entered award territory, but strikes you as having the chops to get there some day. This slot is easier to fill because the field is broad. I’m inclined to go with Elisabeth Moss, who, having gained clout from two revered TV series, seems now to be angling for film prominence. Her choices to date (including The Square, Her Smell, The Old Man and the Gun, Us) have given her serious cred, and her upcoming schedule features Wes Anderson and (oh well) Taika Waititi films. I like her chances of getting Academy attention before long.

The classic bonus round spot – someone who was in the conversation this year but fell short -- is tougher to fill this year. Many of those who flirted with but failed at getting nominations were former winners or nominees -- Nyong’o, Foxx, DeNiro, Chalamet, Alda, Lithgow. The rest were people I’m dubious will ever get over the hump in appealing to AMPAS: JLo, Sandler, Awkwafina. Maybe Taron Egerton offers a middle-ground? (Though I’d need to see a lot more from him.) I think I’ll bump up a former second-tier bonus rounder: Tracy Letts. Though he never got fully into the discussion this year, his continued presence in top-tier films (four best picture nominees in the past three years) should eventually push him onto the list.

That, at the usual great length, is my take on this year’s crop. I yield the floor for rebuttals and responses.
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