Scattered Pre-Show Thoughts I Don't Know Where Else to Put

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Big Magilla
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Re: Scattered Pre-Show Thoughts I Don't Know Where Else to Put

Post by Big Magilla »

Mister Tee wrote:A number of people –- voters, reporters talking to voters -– have said the circumstances of this year have brought interest down; some Academy members are not bothering to vote. I could be mistaken, but it strikes me aging, deadwood voters –- those in it, at this point, for the screenings and swag -– are the most likely to fit this profile (wouldn’t people who recently became voters be more apt to exercise their franchise?) A younger, more diverse-skewing electorate could affect things at the margins.
I don't know who these mystical non-voters are, but if they are the ones who are influenced by the glad-handing that goes on at screenings and parties that were not part of the season, who needs them? Maybe we'll get awards for once that are more about the work than the hype.
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Re: Scattered Pre-Show Thoughts I Don't Know Where Else to Put

Post by gunnar »

I liked Scent of a Woman quite a bit, but I liked Dersu Uzala quite a bit more. I haven't seen the other three foreign language nominees from that year yet, but I doubt if any of them will change my opinion that Dersu Uzala was the best choice.

I don't necessarily buy in to a lot of these categories buying locked in, but I haven't made a study of it over the years. Everything has been disrupted so much by the pandemic that I don't know if the past can really serve as much of a precedent. I could easily be wrong, of course.

It wouldn't surprise me if Nomadland gets the screenplay win without getting Best Picture. I also think that Crip Camp and Collective stand a good chance of finishing ahead of My Octopus Teacher in the Best Documentary Feature category. Likewise, it wouldn't surprise me if Quo Vadis, Aida? edges out Another Round. It will be interesting to see how it plays out on Sunday.
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Scattered Pre-Show Thoughts I Don't Know Where Else to Put

Post by Mister Tee »

Though this is a more open year than most recent ones, a great many pundits have settled as usual on close to a template –- best actress, adapted screenplay and editing the big exceptions. Reasons to think the other categories aren’t set in stone, either:

1) After five years now of membership expansion, recent additions are a significant enough percentage of the whole that outcomes could/should be affected. If there’s all that change and choices still just match the groups who’ve stayed stagnant, what was the point?

2) A number of people –- voters, reporters talking to voters -– have said the circumstances of this year have brought interest down; some Academy members are not bothering to vote. I could be mistaken, but it strikes me aging, deadwood voters –- those in it, at this point, for the screenings and swag -– are the most likely to fit this profile (wouldn’t people who recently became voters be more apt to exercise their franchise?) A younger, more diverse-skewing electorate could affect things at the margins.

3) This extraordinarily late deadline. I think it already affected the nominations -– Judas & the Black Messiah was nowhere in December; if everyone had pushed their slates out in the usual four-week crunch, I doubt it or The Father would have made the best picture ballot. Now, we’ve had a not just later but longer-than-usual post-nomination period –- giving those who participate the time they need to catch up with all nominees, rather than default to the most-buzzed.

* * *

I know we take the anonymous ballots with a grain of salt, but I truly can’t recall a year where more of them were filled with “Film/Performance X is going to win, but I‘m voting for Y” -– or, a variation, “If everyone only saw X, it would win.” This applies to leading actor most prominently, but also international film and make-up. I’d be very nervous if I were the putative front-runner in a category where significant numbers of people were saying things like this.

Semi-related: As Sabin commented elsewhere, Ma Rainey is predicted by many to win 3 or even 4 prizes. This seems a lot for a movie that got only 5 nominations all together. I know: a far worse movie, Bohemian Rhapsody, won 4 of 5 nominations -- but its fifth nomination was best picture. Ma Rainey missed not only best picture but also a seemingly easy-to-nab screenplay citation. Obviously, things can still go its way, but I feel like its apt to miss at least one of the ones many are conceding to it.

* * *

The power of precursors: Pre-ASC, Nomadland’s cinematography had to be seen as one of night’s sure-shots. ASC’s choice of Mank –- which could easily be a “you’re not a union member” thing -- has thrown Gold Derby pundits into a tizzy: at least a third of them are now predicting Mank. Other categories, which a week ago seemed more competitive than this one (costume design, especially), have far greater uniformity of prediction.

In fact, this season has revealed, more than any other, just how pathetically reliant some pundits are on having precursor guideposts. Instead of just enjoying the rare contest in best actress, they’re running about, screaming they don’t have enough clues to predict. (One guy on YouTube actually said “I don’t want to be in suspense; I want to be right.”) They’re much happier with the way supporting actress has jumped from a complete puzzle three weeks ago to a slam-dunk for Youn. And they act as if they’re doing some impressive work now by forecasting Youn. From my standpoint, all they’ve proven is they know how to read a spreadsheet. It’s probably beyond happening in this current world, but I wish them all an Adrien Brody or Marisa Tomei right between their eyes.

* * *

The prevailing “Another Round will win International Film because it got that directing nomination” reminds me a bit of the 1975 Oscars, when the original Italian Scent of a Woman got an unexpected screenplay nomination, making it (for many of us) the default favorite for best Foreign Film. It happens that that was the first year the “You must see all nominees” rule was in effect, and we were all stunned when Dersu Uzala won instead. (Knowing now that Uzala was a Kurosawa film makes it less a surprise, but that wasn’t common knowledge going into the Oscars –- even Andrew Sarris only found out afterwards.) The commonality with this year: Scent of a Woman wasn’t remotely in the fame-class of the foreign films that had won in the years just preceding (The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie, Day for Night, Amarcord), but the screenplay nod made it seem like the one to beat. Likewise, Another Round can’t stand in the same space as Roma or Parasite, but we need to designate a favorite somehow, so we latch onto that directing nod. I wonder if the film’s being set up a little, here.

* * *

My Octopus Teacher hasn’t been universally feted at the Guilds, but enough pundits have bought into the “it’s beloved” scenario that it’s dominating predictions. It’s funny how this “people just love it” candidate is expected to win, where, no matter how much people say they love Hopkins, most everyone is sticking with Boseman.

* * *

My argument (in the best picture thread) that Nomadland needs the screenplay win to really be a strong best picture candidate is getting support, in a roundabout way, from some pundits. I’ve heard any number of them reverse-engineer their screenplay prediction: starting with “we know Nomadland is winning best picture, so that should mean it’s winning best screenplay.” It doesn’t seem to occur to them that, if you have to finagle Nomadland to the screenplay win, MAYBE it’s not the best picture sure-shot you think.

* * *

Okay: those are my scattered thoughts for right now. Feel free to throw in your own miscellany.
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