Categories One by One: Best Picture

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OscarGuy
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by OscarGuy »

I would like to believe that, but considering the people I've seen clamoring for a Viola Davis win, I just cannot see that being accurate. Take for example the most recent "brutally honest" Oscar ballot from the male producer. His initial comments on Promising Young Woman were that he liked it, but then he ranked it 7th and went on to trash it in every category it was mentioned in, calling it slight, or thin, or whatnot. I think "like" and "love" are strange words to use when you aren't actually voting for it. Yeah, it pulled that surprise Editing nomination none of us expected, suggesting it had stronger support, but everything before and after tell me it's underperforming everywhere. Liked well enough to nominate, but not well enough to honor.
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by anonymous1980 »

OscarGuy wrote: Many either outright hate Promising Young Woman (vast majority of these are men, btw) or absolutely adore it.
Apparently, according to some insiders, Promising Young Woman is actually surprisingly popular with male Academy voters.
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by OscarGuy »

Other than Green Book, it's almost always a smaller film triumphing over a behemoth. Parasite over 1917. Moonlight over La La Land. Spotlight over The Revenant, 12 Years a Slave over Gravity. This time, other than from its precursor haul, I wouldn't classify Nomadland as a behemoth. I think that might play a stronger factor in getting Nomadland to the top of the list and it all comes down to the preferential ballot.

Nomadland feels like these other usurpers in that it's well loved across the board. It might not be everyone's first choice, but it seems genuinely well loved. The same is true of The Father and Minari. Trial is not that polarizing, but I'd classify it as a Spotlight rather than anything else. A well liked film that no one thought people were voting for and yet they did. Promising Young Woman and, less so, Judas and the Black Messiah are polarizing films. Many either outright hate Promising Young Woman (vast majority of these are men, btw) or absolutely adore it. Judas seems the same way. I'd put Judas in the 12 Years a Slave dynamic, not because it's a Black film, but it's about an important topic, the American Black experience and the bigotry that has persevered well beyond the supposedly post-racial environment some White people genuinely think we're in.

So, what wins? I honestly don't see many scenarios that play out where Nomadland cannot still win. If, as Reza suggests, it's a film that captures you once you see it, we should expect that it's a similar reaction a lot of people are going to have. That's how Parasite rolled up over 1917, IMO.

One other note, outside of some minor exceptions, films that get nominations in picture, directing, acting, writing, and editing are more likely to win Best Picture than films that do not have those citations. Sure Birdman didn't have editing and Titanic didn't have writing, but the vast majority of outcomes, these nominations are important. Promising Young Woman got five nominations and they were specifically in these five areas. Nomadland land has them as well, uniquely enough, four of the five are for Chloé Zhao. That's it. The Father, Sound of Metal, and The Trial of the Chicago 7 don't have directing nominations. Mank, Minari, and Judas don't have editing nominations. What's amazing to me is that this might be the first time in a long time where every Best Picture nominee has nominations in four of the five arenas. That suggests an upset is possible, but might not happen. After all, there are reasons films like Birdman and Titanic win without requisite nominations. They are generally exceptions on exceptions.

Other than that, Green Book is really the only film that doesn't fit the typical pattern. It's also only the fifth film ever to win Best Picture without a directing nomination. Parasite is one of only 12 Best Picture winners not to have an acting nomination. Titanic is the last film to win without a writing nomination and is one of only 7 in history. Editing has only seen 10 historical diversions with Birdman the first to win without editing since Ordinary People in 1980.

Anyway, just food for thought.
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
I believe Sabin's question might have been, not whether she's a credited producer, but whether she's listed on the physical ballot. And I believe the answer is no. I think, except for the four performance categories, only the film's title is listed on the ballot.
Yes, I wanted ask if they can see her name on the ballot under Best Picture.

I asked this question here because technically it's a question about Best Picture but with a race as competitive as Best Actress (at least we think; for all we know, it's a landslide) the sight of Frances McDormand's name twice on a ballot could sway some decisions.

Hmmm...
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by Big Magilla »

Mister Tee wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:
Sabin wrote:Do we know if Frances McDormand's name is listed as a Best Picture producer on Nomadland or do they not list those names?
Yes, we do know that. See IMDb. which notes that she is the first Oscar winning actress to be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar.

Current Oscar rules state "To qualify as a producer nominee for a nominated picture, the producer must have been determined eligible for a PGA award for the picture, or have appealed the PGA’s refusal of such eligibility.". She was not only declared eligible, she won the damn thing!
I believe Sabin's question might have been, not whether she's a credited producer, but whether she's listed on the physical ballot. And I believe the answer is no. I think, except for the four performance categories, only the film's title is listed on the ballot.
I apologize. I believe you are correct. I'm still a little dopey after my second Moderna shot yesterday, but it's common knowledge that she was one of the producers, right?
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by Mister Tee »

Big Magilla wrote:
Sabin wrote:Do we know if Frances McDormand's name is listed as a Best Picture producer on Nomadland or do they not list those names?
Yes, we do know that. See IMDb. which notes that she is the first Oscar winning actress to be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar.

Current Oscar rules state "To qualify as a producer nominee for a nominated picture, the producer must have been determined eligible for a PGA award for the picture, or have appealed the PGA’s refusal of such eligibility.". She was not only declared eligible, she won the damn thing!
I believe Sabin's question might have been, not whether she's a credited producer, but whether she's listed on the physical ballot. And I believe the answer is no. I think, except for the four performance categories, only the film's title is listed on the ballot.
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by Big Magilla »

Sabin wrote:Do we know if Frances McDormand's name is listed as a Best Picture producer on Nomadland or do they not list those names?
Yes, we do know that. See IMDb. which notes that she is the first Oscar winning actress to be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar.

Current Oscar rules state "To qualify as a producer nominee for a nominated picture, the producer must have been determined eligible for a PGA award for the picture, or have appealed the PGA’s refusal of such eligibility.". She was not only declared eligible, she won the damn thing!
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by Sabin »

Do we know if Frances McDormand's name is listed as a Best Picture producer on Nomadland or do they not list those names?
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by Reza »

Mister Tee wrote:Do I think any of these other films can truly pull it off? None of them feel like a best picture winner -– but neither does Nomadland; that’s the 2020 of it.
Everyone seems to have had a very different take on Nomadland. On paper, at least, it sounds like a very dry, downbeat viewing experience. That's what I felt before watching it. However, it really moved me - the story and McDormand - and after a very long time a film, thanks to the dazzling camerawork, reminded me of a David Lean film. It's an intimate little epic and I think it will win Best Picture with or without a screenplay win.

* I feel The Father will win adapted screenplay. The Academy is going to honour the film somehow and this is the only place they can do it since what should be a slam dunk win for Hopkins, under different circumstances, is going to go by default to Boseman.
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by Mister Tee »

A different sort of deep-ish dive on the category. Thanks to the expanded ballot and preferential voting, it’s been the least predictable category this past decade; this year it might be even moreso.

The nominees, as you know:

The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

American taxpayers have two options for filing every April: they can use the 1040EZ form, which is a simple income/standard deduction/calculate tax; or, they can itemize deductions on a long-form and file all kinds of paperwork to affect the outcome.

This year, this category has a possible 1040EZ: if Nomadland wins adapted screenplay, along with the directing prize no one disputes (plus likely cinematography)…it should win best picture, no problem.

If, however, it loses the screenplay, I think we’re in long-form territory – there’s a whole lot to consider, and all sorts of possible outcomes.

In fact, here’s something I hadn’t noticed before I began looking: if Nomadland comes into the final award holding best director and cinematography trophies but not adapted screenplay – at least a very possible scenario – recent history suggests a best picture loss is coming. Want to hear titles that came in with that haul? Roma; La La Land; The Revenant; Gravity. Go back a ways: Saving Private Ryan; Reds; Cabaret. Back even further: The Quiet Man. Director/cinematography/not screenplay begins to look like a hex for best picture. (Maybe The Shape of Water was lucky Roger Deakins was around to snatch away the cinematography prize.)

There ARE exceptions. The last time a film prevailed in that circumstance was 1997, Titanic. In fact, Titanic climaxed a 3-year run of films that fit the criteria, Braveheart and The English Patient having immediately preceded it. Go back further, to the epics-&-musicals era, there were other films that hit with director/cinematography/no screenplay: Ben-Hur, West Side Story, Lawrence of Arabia and My Fair Lady. But these were all, except Braveheart, absolute juggernauts -- Lawrence’s 7 wins were the smallest haul of anything on the list. And even Braveheart was carrying 4 prizes at the point where the last envelope was opened. Nomadland, coming in with potentially just the two trophies, isn’t in the same lane.

(Digression – because you know I love digression. Interesting thing about that 1995-97 run: the three films played totally different games vis a vis screenplay. Braveheart actually WON WGA, but then became one of the early films to fall to a WGA-ineligible film (The Usual Suspects) at the Oscars. At that point in the evening, I thought Braveheart’s best picture chances were out the window… The English Patient’s loss to Sling Blade still shocks me. It was the first time a non-best picture nominee had ever beaten a best picture contender for adapted screenplay. And Minghella’s screenplay had been one of the film’s most praised elements. The only explanation is, Weinstein had Billy Bob out there shmoozing Hollywood, and they pulled off the improbable upset. I feel like you can put an asterisk on this win, and the footnote should just say “Harvey”… Finally, Titanic -- which we know was a phenomenon, but one whose fans even seemed to skip past the script as sort of a necessary evil. The only one of the bunch that wasn’t even nominated for screenplay.)

Anyway, we should consider the possibility that, despite its excellent run (especially the PGA win), Nomadland may not win best picture. The question becomes, what could, in its place?

In this decade, screenplay winners have been the ones to pull the upsets – 12 Years a Slave over Gravity, Spotlight over The Revenant, Moonlight over La La Land, and Green Book over Roma. This year’s screenplay awards are, of course, as yet undetermined, but (assuming a Nomadland loss) The Father and Promising Young Woman seem the likeliest winners. I’ve been surprised by the degree to which people (and voters) have embraced The Father, but it’s hard to envision something so surreal as that winning best picture. Promising Young Woman, on paper, also seems a divisive film, and its run through the precursors has been close to bi-polar (big wins at BAFTA and WGA, washouts at Globes, SAG and ACE) -- but it may be that the things people like about it outweigh the things that trouble them. I give it a non-zero chance of being the stunning winner.

There’s also, of course, the chance The Trial of the Chicago 7 manages the screenplay win, and rides it -- plus maybe editing -- to a best picture win. But I think Chicago 7 mostly exists as a Socratic ideal of an upset winner...undercut by the fact that no one seems to actually vote for it.

Are there other films that could snatch away the prize? Well, going back another decade, we had two films –- Gladiator and Chicago –- that won best picture without directing or screenplay. Each won some tech prizes, but the real distinction they seemed to share was having acting winners (Crowe, Zeta-Jones). There’d been slight precedent for films winning best picture largely based on performance Oscars – Hamlet and All the King’s Men had managed the feat. (I believe the last film to win best picture with only below-the-line wins was Rebecca, 1940.) So…that brings Judas & the Black Messiah and Minari into the picture. Both films have ardent fans (our own danfrank advocated for Judas a while back), and I don’t think it’s out of the question they could score surprise victories.

Sound of Metal and Mank seem to be holding the short straws in this hypothetical, but, hey: it’s a weird year; maybe it’s time Rebecca was matched.

Do I think any of these other films can truly pull it off? None of them feel like a best picture winner -– but neither does Nomadland; that’s the 2020 of it. It may be that the very scattered-ness of the opposition could lead Nomadland to the win -– where one or two rivals with focus might have a better shot, the field could find itself always a step behind. I haven’t as yet decided how I’m going to bet in our contest. But I know -– barring a Nomadland screenplay win -– I'll view it as an open question till the last envelope is read out.
Last edited by Mister Tee on Thu Apr 22, 2021 1:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by Sabin »

A friend pointed out to me that Nomadland has won every major precursor that 1917 has. And like 1917, it wasn't even up for a SAG Ensemble Award. So... what do we do with that? Does that mean it's doomed? Maybe if The Trial of the Chicago 7 was as galvanizing a film as Parasite. Or if it had the same emotional pull as Green Book. But I don't suspect it does. If not The Trial of the Chicago 7, what else? When was the last time a movie snuck up and surprise won Best Picture without any meaningful precursor? Braveheart? That's pretty much it, right?

I don't think Nomadland is a strong frontrunner but it benefits from a lack of strong challengers. Or rather, there are too many films that they a lot of voters generally like that will trip up the chance of an upset. So, Nomadland it is.
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Categories One by One: Best Picture

Post by Okri »

Okay, so consider this less a prediction comment and more a set of musings about this best picture race.
FilmFan720 wrote:An odd year where I absolutely love 5 of these films, really like another 2, and only have little patience for one nominee (Mank).
Mister Tee wrote:For the record,my top five from last year -- The Irishman, Little Women, Parasite, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood -- would all have topped this entire list.
I’ve been more on Tee’s side in terms of this Oscar “season.” It felt weird. It feels both abbreviated (the number of films, particularly big films, that were held back/not released) and distended. With the lack of box office information, it’s difficult to tell how things landed with “the public” – let alone way that being bombarded with streaming “content” means everything feels just.. ephemeral. It doesn’t help, of course, that we’re coming from one of the most galvanizing best picture choices in my (and dare I say our?) memory, which came in part from a terrific festival season (which 2020 didn’t have) and a strong theatrical release/result (ditto). I’m not gonna say films I see on streaming don’t feel real. I will say that I saw The Irishman, Roma and Marriage Story in theatres and would’ve loved to do the same for Mank, Judas and the Black Messiah etc. Heck, I still haven’t figured out a way to see Minari that wouldn’t cost me $20 (CDN) (I live on my own, so as a single person rental fee – 아니 (yes, I went to google translate to write “no” in Korean). So yeah, this year feels weird to me.

But I’m mostly fond of the films.

I wonder to what extent these films made it to the big show by virtue of it being a “weaker” year, such as it was. So, because I felt like wasting time, I went to look at Metacritic to check out the numbers for the last five years.

AVERAGE SCORE
2020: 83.125
2019: 81.9
2018: 78.125
2017: 87.667
2016: 83.444

So, not so bad – right in the middle, actually. 2017 looks very strong, 2018 very weak. But maybe that’s just because of an outlier (cough Bohemian Rhapsody cough). So what’s the median?

MEDIAN SCORE
2020: 83.5
2019: 83
2018: 85.5
2017: 88
2016: 81

In the middle again. But 2018 goes from being super weak to being not so bad anymore. Maybe it’s just a taste thing? But then something caught my eye so I went and looked at every best picture nominee’s Metacritic score from 2016 to 2020, ranked below for you pleasure (score in square brackets)


1st [99]: Moonlight
2nd (tie) [96]: Manchester by the Sea, Roma, Parasite
5th (tie) [94]: La La Land, Dunkirk, Lady Bird, Marriage Story, The Irishman
10th (tie) [93]: Nomadland, Call Me by Your Name
12th (tie) [91]: The Favourite, Little Women
14th [90]: Phantom Thread

15th [89]: Minari
16th (tie) [88]: The Father, Hell or High Water, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri, A Star is Born, Black Panther
21st [87]: The Shape of Water
23rd (tie) [85]: Judas and the Black Messiah, Get Out
25th (tie) [83]: The Post, BlacKkKlansman, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
28th [82]: Sound of Metal
29th [81]: Arrival, Ford V. Ferrari
31st [79]: Mank, Fences
33rd [78]: 1917
34th [76]: The Trial of the Chicago 7
35th [75]: Darkest Hour
36th [73]: Promising Young Woman
37th [71]: Hacksaw Ridge
38th (tie) [69]: Lion, Green Book
40th [61]: Vice
41st [59]: Joker
42nd [58]: Jojo Rabbit
43rd [49]: Bohemian Rhapsody

And, the best picture nominees that made They Shoot Pictures, Don’t They top 1000 films of the 21st Century ranking (based mostly on top ten lists of the year/top of the decade etc).

1. Moonlight
2. Phantom Thread
3. Parasite
4. Roma
5. Get Out
6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
7. The Irishman
8. La La Land
9. Lady Bird
10. Manchester by the Sea
11. Call Me By Your Name
12. Nomadland
13. Arrival
14. Dunkirk
15. Marriage Story
16. The Favourite
17. The Shape of Water
18. Hell or High Water
19. Black Panther
20. BlacKkKlansman
21. Little Women
22. Minari
23. Mank
24. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
25. Sound of Metal
26. Joker
27. Promising Young Woman
28. The Post
29. A Star is Born

What does this mean? Not much, if I’m honest. Only one 90+ ranking from Metacritic, compared to 4 from 2019 and 2017, 3 in 2016 and 1 in 2018. Some overperform on top ten lists etc compared to their grade (Get Out, Arrival, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood). Whether that’s post-hoc rationalization or genuine post-hoc appreciation, I don’t know (I prefer to say the latter, but I know that’s not a universal position). That said, only one 90+ rating feels… right for 2020/21 films.

The thing I most like about this season, though, is that there are films that weren’t positioned as “Oscar candidates”, by hook or crook, that still ended up making it on the force of their partisans. I’m thinking something like Sound of Metal or Promising Young Woman. In another galaxy, you could see each settling for early year praise and mentions in “I wish this were nominated” portions of people’s predictions, settling down with an acting and/or writing nomination each, but enthusiasm (or the field’s barreness) got them more. I don’t think Raci gets nominated in a normal year, but I think that speaks poorly of those other years and how the conversation settles, as opposed to a shrug nomination this year.

Anyway, so which film wins? I think this category is one of the more locked in, actually. But I’m eager to hear other thoughts after my perambulations.
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