Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

[Sabin]

I believe this race usually boils down to which film has the strongest hook. Yes, cult of personality around the writer helps in a big way. But it alway seems to go the way of the hook.

In 2013, we saw David O. Russell and Spike Jonze in 2013. That's probably the close analog to this race. American Hustle won the BAFTA while Her won the Golden Globe and the WGA Award. Super close race. What won? Her, a social satire with a stronger hook.

In 2017, we saw three auteurs off (Gerwig, McDonagh, Peele; technically more, but they weren't really in the conversaiton). McDonagh won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA but Peele won the WGA. Which film won? Get Out, a social satire with a stronger hook.

Last year we saw Bong Joon-Ho and Quentin Tarantino. I never really suspected that race was close. But Tarantino won the Golden Globe while Bong won the WGA and the BAFTA. Which film won? Parasite, a social satire with a stronger hook.

I think that logic favors Promising Young Woman. I also think that Aaron Sorkin isn't quite the Academy darling that one would initially think.

[anonymous1980]

I think this could be a harbinger for any Best Picture upsets. The Trial of the Chicago 7 could be following a Green Book type trajectory should it surprisingly triumph here.

[Mister Tee]

I figure we need to process this one before we move on to the top category.

The nominees:

Judas & the Black Messiah (Will Berson, Shaka King, Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas)
Minari (Lee Isaac Chung)
Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)
Sound of Metal (Darius Marder, Abraham Marder & Derek Cianfrance)
The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Aaron Sorkin)

Though Minari and Sound of Metal both have many admirers among Academy-ites, I don't think their scripts are the primary reason.

Judas & the Black Messiah is a powerful piece of work, and would be a fine winner, but it doesn't have either of the two special sauces that -- Green Book aside -- generally distinguish winners in this category: especially sprightly dialogue (either Tarantino film, Juno) or a particularly fresh concept (her, Get Out, Parasite, etc.)

The Trial of the Chicago 7 of course qualifies, for many, under the first rubric -- Sorkin being past master (and former winner) for his rapid-fire dialogue. It happens I think this is his least-impressive script of the millennium -- I find Steve Job infinitely superior, and I'd even go to bat for Molly's Game as better-written.

Promising Young Woman represents that second criterion: it's a zingy, inventive, bold effort that's full of narrative surprises. The film's dialogue is pretty impressive, in the bargain.

The combo WGA/BAFTA wins suggest Promising Young Woman is running ahead, but Chicago 7 isn't out of the race -- it won the Globe, and major awards from SAG and ACE (where Promising Young Woman fell to Palm Springs) suggest it has overall momentum that could translate here. There HAVE been upsets in this category.

I'm probably betting Promising Young Woman, but it's not a done deal.